Complexity in Agriculture: The Rise (and Fall?) of Monsanto
19 July 2017 Sometimes it seems as if the ag world is changing so fast that we can barely keep up with it all. I just finished reading an article that opined on how the Monsanto-Bayer merger would lead to the end of western civilization as we know it. Given my strong contrarian streak, I view this merger as an example less of strength than of impending weakness. The world is changing dramatically as technology evolves and agriculture is simply changing along with it. Monsanto’s incredible run in the past 30 years is largely attributable to their near single-handed ability to reduce complexity in row crop agriculture. But complexity is striking back, and neither Monsanto nor the industry will ever be the same again.
I’ve always believed the adage that companies are never as brilliant as believed at their apex, nor as stupid as billed at their nadir. Sometimes they are simply in the right place at the right time (i.e., lucky), and a very few actually shape the times in which they live. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, Monsanto is one of those companies.
I started with Monsanto as a freshly minted PhD in 1982, and spent an amazing dozen years there back in the days when they were a chemical, not a seed (or precision ag) company. To me the story of Monsanto is the story of complexity in agriculture, and a new (very disruptive) chapter is only now being written.
Modern History of Complexity in U.S. Agriculture
Complexity in agriculture steadily marched higher after the introduction of hybrid corn in the 1940s and the chemical pesticide industry growth starting in the 1950s. The seed corn market was highly fragmented and companies competed based on superior agronomic (yield) performance. Most herbicides were selective to certain weeds, and there were several timings of application based on tillage practices and crop tolerance in the days before no-till. This complexity required significant expertise from trusted advisors, so input suppliers, ag retailers, and crop consultants played a critical role in agronomic program design. U.S. row crop agriculture reached its peak of complexity in the mid-1980s (at least to that point).
By the early 1990s, two major developments dramatically reduced complexity in row crop agriculture. First, Roundup’s steady growth had resulted in both agronomic (lower rates) and economic (lower prices) progress in morphing to an annual weed control product, in contrast to the high-priced perennial weed control product was it when launched (I sprayed a lot of field bindweed and Johnsongrass in those early years).
Secondly, this occurred at the same time that GMO traits, particularly corn rootworm (Bt) and Roundup tolerant corn varieties were introduced. This also coincided with the huge ethanol boom (bubble) that raised corn prices dramatically. Huge consolidation occurred in the seed, chemical, and ag retail sectors, and growers simply bought into a simple platform program of seed and chemicals.
There was a lot more talk about precision ag than meaningful action, so this period, peaking in perhaps 2005, resulted in the withering away of a great deal of the agronomic expertise in the industry. You didn’t need to be a rocket scientist to simply plant RR corn and apply 24 oz. of Roundup. Clean fields. High yields. Done. Easy peasy.
Read the full story on CropLife.com.
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