El nuevo orden mundial del comercio y sus implicaciones para la agroindustria
21 de enero de 2026 As global trade patterns continue to shift under the weight of tariffs, geopolitical realignments, and economic uncertainty, the agricultural sector finds itself navigating a period of sustained volatility. These dynamics were front and center during a recent episode of AgriBusiness Global Report, where Bob Trogele, CEO of ProAgInvest, shared his perspective on the future of tariffs, U.S.-China trade relations, and what agribusiness leaders should be doing to prepare for what comes next.
Trogele’s message was clear from the outset: change is no longer episodic — it is structural. “Constant change is something we have to get used to,” he said, noting that tariffs, in particular, are likely to remain a defining feature of the global trade environment.
From a U.S. standpoint, Trogele views tariffs less as a temporary policy tool and more as a durable revenue mechanism. “The tariff situation, at least from a U.S. perspective, is going to remain because tariffs are a tax,” he explained. While originally introduced under the Trump administration, those tariffs were largely maintained by the Biden administration. According to Trogele, the reason is simple: “Governments like taxes — they like taking in money and distributing it.”
He emphasized that agriculture has already seen tangible effects from this revenue stream. A significant portion of tariff-generated funds over the past decade flowed back into the U.S. agricultural sector, helping offset some of the disruptions caused by retaliatory trade actions. Importantly, Trogele pointed out that tariff revenues are now at historic highs. “If you look at the statistics right now, the tariffs coming in under the current agreements are the highest ever in terms of revenue flowing into the U.S. government,” he said.
That reality makes a rapid rollback unlikely, even in the event of political change. “If you have a change of presidency or administration, I don’t see them getting rid of that very quickly,” Trogele said. He added that many tariffs are embedded in formal trade agreements. “When a deal has been made and both parties have signed off, why would they change it?”
Still, not all trade negotiations are complete. Trogele highlighted the unfinished business between the U.S. and China as one of the most consequential unresolved issues. “There are still some major deals that have to be finalized, and one of them is the U.S. and China,” he said. He noted that China did not fully meet the commitments laid out in the original Phase One trade agreement or subsequent follow-ups, contributing to prolonged negotiations.
These talks, Trogele believes, are taking longer because negotiators are seeking clearer enforcement mechanisms. “They’re trying to put more substance into them — very clear ‘you get this, I get this’ terms, and consequences if those terms aren’t met,” he said.
Despite the delays, Trogele expects progress in the near term. “I expect them to be finalized within the next six months,” he said, pointing to the political and economic pressure surrounding upcoming midterm elections. Markets, he explained, are hungry for certainty. “People want a clear vision of what the next few years will look like so they can make capital investments and understand the true cost of doing business.”
Not all tariffs, however, make economic sense in Trogele’s view. He cautioned that some are inherently inflationary, particularly when applied to goods the U.S. does not produce domestically. “We tax pineapples coming into the United States, even though we don’t produce pineapples,” he said. “That’s an example of an unnecessary tariff.”
Looking beyond individual policies, Trogele sees a broader reordering of global commerce underway. “I believe we’re seeing a reallocation of the global order of doing business,” he said. Countries, he added, will continue to adjust their trade relationships based on self-interest, just as they always have.
This reallocation may also extend to how trade is conducted. Trogele suggested that shifts could occur around the dominance of the U.S. dollar, particularly as alternatives such as cryptocurrency evolve. Combined with rapid technological change across regions, he believes the result will be “a new era of business.”
For agribusiness leaders, the implications are significant. Awareness and adaptability, Trogele argued, are no longer optional.
“The key for us in the agricultural industry is to be highly aware of what’s going on and understand how we adapt to that new business environment,” he said.
He underscored that volatility is now a constant condition rather than a temporary phase. “You need to be in a constant state of adaptation because things are moving in a very volatile way,” Trogele said. “Changes can be short-term, for better or worse, and nothing is static yet.”
Until trade relationships, tariffs, and geopolitical priorities stabilize, agribusinesses should expect ongoing uncertainty—and plan accordingly. As Trogele put it, “This whole issue hasn’t settled. Until it does, there will be a lot of give and take depending on where you sit.”
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