{"id":133712,"date":"2026-02-05T10:17:37","date_gmt":"2026-02-05T15:17:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=133712"},"modified":"2026-01-23T10:18:31","modified_gmt":"2026-01-23T15:18:31","slug":"global-crop-protection-powerhouses-face-diverging-risks-in-2026-and-beyond","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/markets\/asia\/global-crop-protection-powerhouses-face-diverging-risks-in-2026-and-beyond\/","title":{"rendered":"Las potencias mundiales en protecci\u00f3n de cultivos se enfrentan a riesgos divergentes en 2026 y en adelante"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mientras la agricultura mundial se enfrenta a la incertidumbre econ\u00f3mica, la inestabilidad geopol\u00edtica y las cambiantes din\u00e1micas de la oferta y la demanda, tres pa\u00edses siguen desempe\u00f1ando un papel fundamental en el mercado de protecci\u00f3n de cultivos: Brasil, Rusia y China. Si bien cada uno de ellos sigue siendo crucial para la producci\u00f3n agr\u00edcola mundial y el suministro de insumos, cada uno enfrenta desaf\u00edos espec\u00edficos que podr\u00edan determinar la trayectoria de la industria en los pr\u00f3ximos a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n

Esos desaf\u00edos fueron el centro de atenci\u00f3n durante un episodio reciente de la Informe global de agronegocios<\/a>, con Bob Trogele, director ejecutivo de ProAgInvest<\/a>. Bas\u00e1ndose en d\u00e9cadas de experiencia en finanzas e inversiones agr\u00edcolas, Trogele ofreci\u00f3 una evaluaci\u00f3n sincera de lo que les espera a estas potencias globales y lo que esto significa para los proveedores, inversores y l\u00edderes del agronegocio en todo el mundo.<\/p>\n

Brasil: El estr\u00e9s crediticio se une a la incertidumbre pol\u00edtica<\/h2>\n

La posici\u00f3n de Brasil como potencia agr\u00edcola es indiscutible, pero Trogele advirti\u00f3 que la tensi\u00f3n financiera est\u00e1 poniendo a prueba la resiliencia de toda la cadena de valor. "La pregunta clave era cu\u00e1nto tiempo la industria proveedora \u2014proveedores de productos qu\u00edmicos, nutricionales, de semillas, de equipos y financieros\u2014 podr\u00eda seguir apoyando a la agricultura brasile\u00f1a", afirm\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Durante a\u00f1os, los proveedores ofrecieron generosas condiciones de cr\u00e9dito para mantener el flujo de productos, en algunos casos ampliando los d\u00edas de capital de trabajo a m\u00e1s de 300. Seg\u00fan Trogele, ese modelo ha llegado a su l\u00edmite. "El producto o el servicio no se materializaron, y luego volvieron. Esto caus\u00f3 importantes problemas financieros a algunas de las empresas que eran proveedores para Brasil", explic\u00f3.<\/p>\n

La alta inflaci\u00f3n y las tasas de inter\u00e9s desorbitadas han agravado el problema, provocando quiebras en sectores agr\u00edcolas, minoristas y de distribuci\u00f3n. \u201cActualmente, el dinero en Brasil est\u00e1 muy caro y tienen problemas de cr\u00e9dito\u201d, afirm\u00f3 Trogele. Si bien el gobierno brasile\u00f1o ha tomado medidas para crear mecanismos financieros que reduzcan la dependencia de proveedores privados, el futuro sigue siendo incierto.<\/p>\n

La inestabilidad pol\u00edtica complica a\u00fan m\u00e1s el panorama. Dado que aproximadamente 301 billones de d\u00f3lares del PIB brasile\u00f1o est\u00e1n vinculados a la agricultura, Trogele enfatiz\u00f3 que \u201ctanto la inestabilidad pol\u00edtica como este riesgo crediticio en Brasil deber\u00edan ser una prioridad para cualquier inversionista que invierta en Brasil\u201d, incluidas las empresas agroindustriales que operan en el pa\u00eds. Por ahora, los desaf\u00edos de Brasil son inmediatos e inevitables.<\/p>\n

Rusia: guerra, desgaste y una cuesti\u00f3n abierta<\/h2>\n

El futuro agr\u00edcola de Rusia est\u00e1 profundamente entrelazado con la guerra en curso en Ucrania. Trogele se\u00f1al\u00f3 que la econom\u00eda del pa\u00eds se ha orientado hacia la industria militar, mientras que sus fuentes de ingresos tradicionales se enfrentan a presiones. "Han tenido problemas con su principal fuente de ingresos, que es el petr\u00f3leo, y los europeos se est\u00e1n alejando de ellos", afirm\u00f3.<\/p>\n

La guerra, a\u00f1adi\u00f3, trae consigo una destrucci\u00f3n inevitable. \u201cToda guerra causa un gran desgaste, tanto en el aspecto humano como en el econ\u00f3mico. Se destruyen vidas, familias, equipos y edificios\u201d. Si bien Rusia ha sufrido hist\u00f3ricamente este desgaste, las consecuencias a largo plazo para la agricultura y la inversi\u00f3n siguen siendo inciertas.<\/p>\n

Cuando comenz\u00f3 el conflicto, muchos inversionistas y proveedores agr\u00edcolas abandonaron el mercado. La pregunta clave ahora, dijo Trogele, es si regresar\u00e1n. "Desde la perspectiva de la industria agr\u00edcola y de la industria proveedora, \u00bfregresar\u00e1n las empresas? No es f\u00e1cil responder", se\u00f1al\u00f3. Mucho depende de c\u00f3mo evolucione el conflicto y de si se puede restablecer la estabilidad econ\u00f3mica.<\/p>\n

China: El exceso de capacidad tras el tel\u00f3n<\/h2>\n

China sigue siendo un pilar fundamental de la industria mundial de protecci\u00f3n de cultivos, tanto como proveedor como cliente. Trogele reconoci\u00f3 el \u00e9xito del pa\u00eds en \u00e1reas como la independencia energ\u00e9tica, calificando su progreso como "una labor tremendo", pero se apresur\u00f3 a se\u00f1alar las desventajas. "Ha tenido un precio", dijo, citando la contaminaci\u00f3n de las centrales de carb\u00f3n y la sobreinversi\u00f3n masiva en capacidad industrial.<\/p>\n

En el sector agroqu\u00edmico, esa sobreinversi\u00f3n ha tenido repercusiones globales. \u201cHay m\u00e1s oferta que demanda a nivel mundial\u201d, afirm\u00f3 Trogele. \u201cLos precios han bajado dr\u00e1sticamente y los m\u00e1rgenes se han desplomado a nivel mundial en el sector qu\u00edmico\u201d.\u201d<\/p>\n

La econom\u00eda china en general tambi\u00e9n genera inquietud. "Siguen operando con una econom\u00eda de inversi\u00f3n \u2014de poner manos a la obra\u2014 en lugar de una econom\u00eda de consumo", afirm\u00f3. El alto desempleo, las dificultades del sector de la construcci\u00f3n y las tensiones geopol\u00edticas aumentan la incertidumbre.<\/p>\n

A pesar de las exportaciones r\u00e9cord, Trogele advirti\u00f3 que el \u00e9xito superficial enmascara problemas m\u00e1s profundos. "Necesitan una econom\u00eda nacional fuerte, y no la tienen. Si se mira tras bambalinas, la situaci\u00f3n en China no es buena", afirm\u00f3. Dada la dependencia de la agricultura mundial de China, la estabilidad all\u00ed no es opcional, sino esencial.<\/p>\n

Un acto de equilibrio global<\/h2>\n

En conjunto, las perspectivas para Brasil, Rusia y China ponen de relieve la complejidad que enfrenta la industria global de protecci\u00f3n de cultivos. El riesgo crediticio, la inestabilidad pol\u00edtica, la guerra y los desequilibrios econ\u00f3micos estructurales obligan a las empresas a replantearse su estrategia y exposici\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

Como Trogele dej\u00f3 claro durante su aparici\u00f3n en el programa AInforme global de griBusiness,<\/strong> Estos mercados siguen siendo indispensables, pero navegar en ellos requerir\u00e1 cautela, adaptabilidad y una visi\u00f3n clara del riesgo.<\/p>\n

Para escuchar el an\u00e1lisis completo y las reflexiones de Bob Trogele, mire el episodio completo de<\/strong> Informe global de agronegocios<\/a> presentando su entrevista<\/strong>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La crisis crediticia de Brasil, la econom\u00eda de guerra de Rusia y el exceso de capacidad de China: Bob Trogele analiza los riesgos que est\u00e1n reconfigurando la protecci\u00f3n mundial de los cultivos.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":60545,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1917,4,26,28,29,1848,5,1849],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-133712","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-abg-update-feature","category-agrochemicals","category-americas","category-asia","category-europe","category-executive-outlook","category-markets","category-sourcing-insider"],"yoast_head":"\nGlobal Crop Protection Powerhouses Face Diverging Risks in 2026 and Beyond - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Brazil\u2019s credit crunch, Russia\u2019s war economy, and China\u2019s 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