{"id":19487,"date":"2008-12-15T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2008-12-15T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.farmchemicalsinternational.com\/2008\/12\/15\/war-on-assumptions\/"},"modified":"2019-09-16T13:48:47","modified_gmt":"2019-09-16T17:48:47","slug":"war-on-assumptions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/markets\/war-on-assumptions\/","title":{"rendered":"Guerra contra las suposiciones"},"content":{"rendered":"

A veces, las situaciones crean opiniones populares que son tan obvias, tan simples, que casi con certeza est\u00e1n mal informadas, o al menos, sin considerar el panorama completo.<\/p>\n

Ese podr\u00eda ser el caso de dos de los mayores problemas de la agricultura internacional en la actualidad. Estoy hablando del Organizaci\u00f3n Mundial del Comercio (OMC)<\/a> Ronda de Doha sobre pol\u00edtica comercial y auge de los biocombustibles. En general, se considera que ambos son cambios monumentales que tendr\u00e1n un efecto positivo en la agricultura mundial.<\/p>\n

No estoy argumentando aqu\u00ed que esto no suceder\u00e1. Dadas las circunstancias adecuadas, uno o ambos podr\u00edan estar a la altura de las elevadas expectativas que se les han impuesto. Pero hay razones para dudar tanto de Doha como de los biocombustibles, y algunos argumentos convincentes en contra de que cualquiera de ellos se deshaga de la forma en que se prev\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Para comenzar con la Ronda de Doha, que fue noticia en junio cuando representantes de Estados Unidos, la UE, Brasil e India se reunieron en Potsdam, Alemania, hay mucho espacio para el escepticismo. Potsdam fue el escenario de otra ruptura en las negociaciones, ya que los representantes de Brasil e India se retiraron de la mesa y terminaron la reuni\u00f3n antes de tiempo. <\/p>\n

Fue el \u00faltimo de una serie de derrumbes <\/strong>que han plagado la Ronda de Doha desde que comenz\u00f3 en 2001 (que, dicho sea de paso, es el resultado de otro fracaso; la Ronda estaba programada para comenzar en 1999 en la OMC <\/a>Conferencia en Seattle, EE. UU., Y que se conocer\u00e1 como la \u201cRonda de Seattle\u201d). Sin embargo, la incapacidad de los gobiernos para encontrar puntos en com\u00fan no es la \u00fanica raz\u00f3n para cuestionar Doha.<\/p>\n

Si bien me considero un defensor del libre comercio, he comenzado a dudar de las intenciones de algunas de las naciones de Doha. El esp\u00edritu de Doha en sus inicios fue el de comercio justo, de mejorar la situaci\u00f3n de los pa\u00edses m\u00e1s pobres del mundo a trav\u00e9s de una \u201cagenda de desarrollo\u201d. Sin embargo, ahora parece haber diferentes motivaciones - las que ven a los pa\u00edses desarrollados y en desarrollo m\u00e1s poderosos del mundo luchando por el acceso a los mercados, dejando a las naciones pobres - y cualquier referencia al \u201cdesarrollo\u201d - fuera de la discusi\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

Duda sobre la utilidad \u00faltima de Doha <\/strong>est\u00e1 respaldado por varias pruebas aleccionadoras. El Banco Mundial, que hab\u00eda estimado que Doha beneficiar\u00eda a los pa\u00edses pobres en US $ $60 mil millones por a\u00f1o, ha reducido esa cifra a US $ $16 mil millones, y gran parte de esa cifra se destinar\u00e1 a los pa\u00edses en desarrollo m\u00e1s avanzados. De manera similar, la reciente \u201cEvaluaci\u00f3n de impacto\u201d de la UE inform\u00f3 que muchos pa\u00edses pobres se ver\u00edan m\u00e1s perjudicados por Doha que ayudados.<\/p>\n

En el caso de los biocombustibles, el caso es m\u00e1s sencillo. Como saben muchos lectores de la FCI, creo que mientras los biocombustibles formen parte de las agendas nacionales, ser\u00eda un error pensar en ellos en t\u00e9rminos de competitividad. Es una industria politizada y, como tal, ser\u00e1 alimentada por los gobiernos.<\/p>\n

Pero eso no lo hace invulnerable.<\/strong> En una conversaci\u00f3n con Jim Hines, director ejecutivo de RiceCo<\/a>, mencion\u00f3 varios puntos que podr\u00edan revertir la opini\u00f3n p\u00fablica sobre los biocombustibles, lo que podr\u00eda poner en peligro su condici\u00f3n de favorito pol\u00edtico. Entre sus preocupaciones se encontraba una reacci\u00f3n de la OPEP que har\u00eda subir los precios del petr\u00f3leo, as\u00ed como "la reacci\u00f3n al costo de la leche, la carne, los productos enlatados que usan almid\u00f3n de ma\u00edz ... tambi\u00e9n la disponibilidad de materias primas para propanil y diur\u00f3n". <\/p>\n

El lector de la FCI, Alan McCracken, tambi\u00e9n expres\u00f3 sus dudas y dijo que "cuando los consumidores se den cuenta de los verdaderos costos del etanol a partir del ma\u00edz y la baja eficiencia del combustible, se rebelar\u00e1n y acabar\u00e1n con el proyecto". Como conductor habitual en Brasil, McCracken agreg\u00f3 que hab\u00eda experimentado de primera mano la disminuci\u00f3n de la eficiencia de combustible de los autom\u00f3viles Flex-Fuel.<\/p>\n

Estos puntos no quieren decir que el biocombustible o Doha est\u00e9n condenados. Pero como cualquier tendencia importante, hay aspectos de las historias que reciben poca atenci\u00f3n. Cuanto m\u00e1s conscientes seamos de todos los diferentes \u00e1ngulos, m\u00e1s preparados estaremos para adaptarnos a los cambios que producen.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A veces, las situaciones crean opiniones populares que son tan obvias, tan simples, que es casi seguro que est\u00e1n mal informadas, o en ...<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-markets"],"yoast_head":"\nWar On Assumptions - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Somtimes situations create popular opinions that are so obvious, so simple, that they are almost certainly misinformed – or at the very least, not\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/markets\/war-on-assumptions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_MX\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"War On Assumptions - AgriBusiness Global\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Somtimes situations create popular opinions that are so obvious, so simple, that they are almost certainly misinformed – or at the very least, not\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/markets\/war-on-assumptions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"AgriBusiness Global\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2008-12-15T05:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-09-16T17:48:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/wp-content\/themes\/AgribusinessTheme\/images\/ABG-Web-No-Feature-Logo.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Matt Hopkins\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/wp-content\/themes\/AgribusinessTheme\/images\/ABG-Web-No-Feature-Logo.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Matt Hopkins\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tiempo de lectura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/markets\\\/war-on-assumptions\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/markets\\\/war-on-assumptions\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Matt Hopkins\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/4d0c8184f818e1c1add90c6287c9988e\"},\"headline\":\"War On Assumptions\",\"datePublished\":\"2008-12-15T05:00:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-09-16T17:48:47+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/markets\\\/war-on-assumptions\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":660,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Markets\"],\"inLanguage\":\"es-MX\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/markets\\\/war-on-assumptions\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/markets\\\/war-on-assumptions\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/markets\\\/war-on-assumptions\\\/\",\"name\":\"War On Assumptions - AgriBusiness Global\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2008-12-15T05:00:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-09-16T17:48:47+00:00\",\"description\":\"Somtimes situations create popular opinions that are so obvious, so simple, that they are almost certainly misinformed – or at the very least, not\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/markets\\\/war-on-assumptions\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"es-MX\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/markets\\\/war-on-assumptions\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/markets\\\/war-on-assumptions\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"War On Assumptions\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/\",\"name\":\"AgriBusiness Global\",\"description\":\"Empowering Agriculture to Feed the World\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"es-MX\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"AgriBusiness Global\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"es-MX\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\\\/farmchemint\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/06\\\/ABG-logo-250x150px-01.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\\\/farmchemint\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/06\\\/ABG-logo-250x150px-01.png\",\"width\":251,\"height\":151,\"caption\":\"AgriBusiness Global\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/4d0c8184f818e1c1add90c6287c9988e\",\"name\":\"Matt Hopkins\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"es-MX\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/4f61b3e5429d66b1c9638522df9e1c062cf0d3d750c2b602763b1ad5e17307e5?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/4f61b3e5429d66b1c9638522df9e1c062cf0d3d750c2b602763b1ad5e17307e5?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/4f61b3e5429d66b1c9638522df9e1c062cf0d3d750c2b602763b1ad5e17307e5?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Matt Hopkins\"},\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/es\\\/author\\\/hopkins\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Guerra contra las suposiciones - AgriBusiness Global","description":"A veces, las situaciones crean opiniones populares que son tan obvias, tan simples, que es casi seguro que est\u00e1n mal informadas, o al menos no.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/markets\/war-on-assumptions\/","og_locale":"es_MX","og_type":"article","og_title":"War On Assumptions - AgriBusiness Global","og_description":"Somtimes situations create popular opinions that are so obvious, so simple, that they are almost certainly misinformed – or at the very least, not","og_url":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/markets\/war-on-assumptions\/","og_site_name":"AgriBusiness Global","article_published_time":"2008-12-15T05:00:00+00:00","article_modified_time":"2019-09-16T17:48:47+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/wp-content\/themes\/AgribusinessTheme\/images\/ABG-Web-No-Feature-Logo.jpg","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Matt Hopkins","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_image":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/wp-content\/themes\/AgribusinessTheme\/images\/ABG-Web-No-Feature-Logo.jpg","twitter_misc":{"Escrito por":"Matt Hopkins","Tiempo de lectura":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/war-on-assumptions\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/war-on-assumptions\/"},"author":{"name":"Matt Hopkins","@id":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/#\/schema\/person\/4d0c8184f818e1c1add90c6287c9988e"},"headline":"War On Assumptions","datePublished":"2008-12-15T05:00:00+00:00","dateModified":"2019-09-16T17:48:47+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/war-on-assumptions\/"},"wordCount":660,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/#organization"},"articleSection":["Markets"],"inLanguage":"es-MX","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/war-on-assumptions\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/war-on-assumptions\/","url":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/war-on-assumptions\/","name":"Guerra contra las suposiciones - AgriBusiness Global","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/#website"},"datePublished":"2008-12-15T05:00:00+00:00","dateModified":"2019-09-16T17:48:47+00:00","description":"A veces, las situaciones crean opiniones populares que son tan obvias, tan simples, que es casi seguro que est\u00e1n mal informadas, o al menos no.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/war-on-assumptions\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"es-MX","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/war-on-assumptions\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/war-on-assumptions\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"War On Assumptions"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/","name":"AgriBusiness Global","description":"Empoderar a la agricultura para alimentar al mundo","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"es-MX"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/#organization","name":"AgriBusiness Global","url":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"es-MX","@id":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/ABG-logo-250x150px-01.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/ABG-logo-250x150px-01.png","width":251,"height":151,"caption":"AgriBusiness Global"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/#\/schema\/person\/4d0c8184f818e1c1add90c6287c9988e","name":"Matt Hopkins","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"es-MX","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/4f61b3e5429d66b1c9638522df9e1c062cf0d3d750c2b602763b1ad5e17307e5?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/4f61b3e5429d66b1c9638522df9e1c062cf0d3d750c2b602763b1ad5e17307e5?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/4f61b3e5429d66b1c9638522df9e1c062cf0d3d750c2b602763b1ad5e17307e5?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Matt Hopkins"},"url":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/author\/hopkins\/"}]}},"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19487","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/110"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19487"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19487\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19487"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19487"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19487"}],"curies":[{"name":"gracias","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}