{"id":58328,"date":"2016-08-19T10:56:56","date_gmt":"2016-08-19T14:56:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=58328"},"modified":"2019-09-25T06:31:25","modified_gmt":"2019-09-25T10:31:25","slug":"live-from-the-trade-summit-more-generics-more-mergers-to-follow-a-tough-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/agrochemicals\/live-from-the-trade-summit-more-generics-more-mergers-to-follow-a-tough-year\/","title":{"rendered":"En vivo desde la cumbre comercial: m\u00e1s gen\u00e9ricos, m\u00e1s fusiones para seguir un a\u00f1o dif\u00edcil"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"

"Todo el mundo quiere estar en el sector (emergente sin patente), pero tenemos que evitar arrastrar las cosas de la propiedad de inmediato al estado de producto b\u00e1sico por parte de todo el mundo haci\u00e9ndolo y sin diferenciar el producto". -Dr. Bob Fairclough<\/p><\/div>\n

El mercado mundial de protecci\u00f3n de cultivos cay\u00f3 9.8% a $55.6 mil millones en 2015, la primera ca\u00edda en los \u00faltimos cinco a\u00f1os, golpeada por la fortaleza del d\u00f3lar estadounidense y los bajos precios de las materias primas, pero los fundamentos est\u00e1n en su lugar para una visi\u00f3n m\u00e1s optimista de los pr\u00f3ximos a\u00f1os, dijo el Dr. Bob Fairclough a los asistentes a la AgriBusiness Global<\/em> Trade Summit en Orlando, Florida, EE. UU. El 18 de agosto.<\/p>\n

Fairclough se\u00f1al\u00f3 que si el mercado se mira en t\u00e9rminos de euro, \u00e1rea tratada y volumen, mostr\u00f3 un crecimiento el a\u00f1o pasado. A nivel mundial durante los \u00faltimos seis a\u00f1os, el mercado de protecci\u00f3n de cultivos ha crecido 4.6% por a\u00f1o, incluso representando la ca\u00edda del a\u00f1o pasado.<\/p>\n

Adem\u00e1s, Estados Unidos recuper\u00f3 su posici\u00f3n como el mercado de protecci\u00f3n de cultivos No. 1 en el mundo, superando ligeramente a Brasil en 2015, con poco m\u00e1s de $8 mil millones en ventas a nivel de ex-fabricante. China ocup\u00f3 el tercer lugar en ventas con alrededor de $6 mil millones en ventas a nivel de ex-fabricante.<\/p>\n

Los herbicidas sufrieron el mayor impacto el a\u00f1o pasado, mientras que los fungicidas superaron a todos los dem\u00e1s segmentos de protecci\u00f3n de cultivos el a\u00f1o pasado, una tendencia que Fairclough considera que contin\u00faa. \u201cA medida que las econom\u00edas emergentes se vuelven m\u00e1s y m\u00e1s ricas, hay un cambio de los insecticidas, que son necesarios, a los fungicidas, que brindan la calidad adicional. Veremos que el sector de los fungicidas crecer\u00e1 m\u00e1s en los pr\u00f3ximos a\u00f1os \u201d, dijo.<\/p>\n

Ninguna regi\u00f3n global se libr\u00f3 de los desaf\u00edos de la industria agroqu\u00edmica el a\u00f1o pasado, pero el mercado europeo fue el m\u00e1s afectado en t\u00e9rminos de d\u00f3lares, particularmente Alemania. Fairclough nombr\u00f3 a Ir\u00e1n como el pa\u00eds con peor desempe\u00f1o en 2015, principalmente por la devaluaci\u00f3n de la moneda local, pero espera que cambie de rumbo hacia un mercado en crecimiento de cara al futuro. Ghana, Finlandia, Grecia, Argelia, Croacia, Nueva Zelanda, Nicaragua, Jap\u00f3n y B\u00e9lgica tambi\u00e9n obtuvieron malos resultados. Fairclough prev\u00e9 que Jap\u00f3n disminuir\u00e1 a\u00f1o tras a\u00f1o, probablemente durante los pr\u00f3ximos cinco a\u00f1os, ya que el gobierno abre el mercado a los gen\u00e9ricos y se reducen los aranceles sobre el arroz.<\/p>\n

Aunque todas las regiones del mundo registraron descensos el a\u00f1o pasado, se destacaron. Los pa\u00edses que lideraron el crecimiento: Rumania, que ha registrado ganancias de dos d\u00edgitos durante los \u00faltimos seis a\u00f1os, Costa Rica, Uruguay, Indonesia, Nigeria, Paraguay, Honduras, Argentina, Ucrania y Vietnam.<\/p>\n

M\u00c1S GEN\u00c9RICOS, M\u00c1S FUSIONES<\/strong><\/p>\n

Los productos sin patente actualmente ocupan 77,5% del mercado total de protecci\u00f3n de cultivos, en comparaci\u00f3n con 22,5% de los productos patentados. \u201c(La proporci\u00f3n) s\u00ed importa en t\u00e9rminos del tama\u00f1o de la industria y c\u00f3mo se impulsar\u00e1 la industria\u201d, dijo Fairclough. El porcentaje de productos sin patente aumentar\u00e1 de 1% a 2% por a\u00f1o durante los pr\u00f3ximos cuatro a cinco a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n

La recesi\u00f3n de la agroqu\u00edmica ha afectado m\u00e1s a las empresas de gen\u00e9ricos que a las multinacionales, pero no se puede pasar por alto que las mayores empresas de gen\u00e9ricos son las multinacionales: el producto m\u00e1s importante de Dow es el glifosato y Syngenta, por definici\u00f3n, es la mayor empresa de gen\u00e9ricos. "Los productos m\u00e1s antiguos se vieron m\u00e1s afectados que los productos patentados, sin embargo, no creo que eso vaya a cambiar la din\u00e1mica a largo plazo".<\/p>\n

En el sector sin patente, un kilogramo de ingrediente activo promedia aproximadamente $15. Los productos patentados contrastan con fuerza, con un promedio de $193 por kilogramo.<\/p>\n

Los productos que saldr\u00e1n de la patente en los pr\u00f3ximos cinco a\u00f1os tienen alrededor de 14% a 15% del mercado global, o alrededor de $8 mil millones a $9 mil millones de ingrediente activo con un precio promedio de $181 por kilogramo, seg\u00fan Fairclough. \u201cTodo el mundo quiere estar en el sector (emergente sin patente), pero tenemos que evitar arrastrar las cosas de la propiedad de inmediato al estado de producto b\u00e1sico por parte de todos y sin diferenciaci\u00f3n de productos\u201d, dijo Fairclough. \u201cNos estamos volviendo m\u00e1s gen\u00e9ricos y menos propietarios, no hay duda de eso. Est\u00e1 quitando valor del mercado, y ser\u00e1 dif\u00edcil ver el aumento en el valor aparte de lo que vemos en t\u00e9rminos de volumen ".<\/p>\n

En este momento, existe la mayor cantidad de IA que salen de la patente que habr\u00e1 durante al menos los pr\u00f3ximos 15 a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n

Otro factor a considerar es la estructura cambiante de la industria. Los 6 grandes ahora capturan 63% de las ventas totales de la industria. Fairclough dijo: \u201cEs una posici\u00f3n relativamente saludable, este perro con una cola muy larga. Impulsa la innovaci\u00f3n y mantiene todo el sistema de producto movi\u00e9ndose de la empresa A a la empresa B en una situaci\u00f3n saludable ". Pero la industria est\u00e1 considerando tres posibles fusiones el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o: Bayer y Monsanto, Syngenta y Adama, y Dow AgroSciences y DuPont.<\/p>\n

Se\u00f1al\u00f3 la importancia de la gran brecha que existir\u00eda en las ventas entre las principales entidades fusionadas y las siguientes empresas m\u00e1s grandes, este \u00faltimo grupo liderado por BASF. Fairclough dice que no hay duda de que habr\u00e1 m\u00e1s fusiones, en primer lugar entre las empresas chinas.<\/p>\n

"Una fusi\u00f3n en s\u00ed misma es interesante, pero tambi\u00e9n es el impacto en la din\u00e1mica de la industria, el flujo de ingredientes activos de los patentados a los gen\u00e9ricos, qui\u00e9n es de qui\u00e9n amigo y el impacto en el tama\u00f1o de la industria en el futuro", dijo.<\/p>\n

A medida que la industria se consolida y menos IA pierden la patente, las multinacionales se centrar\u00e1n cada vez m\u00e1s en las qu\u00edmicas m\u00e1s antiguas, incluidos el 2,4-D, la dicamba y el paraquat. Fairclough lo compar\u00f3 con una olla hirviendo, donde un n\u00famero cada vez mayor de empresas desafiadas est\u00e1n lidiando con un n\u00famero cada vez menor de IA.<\/p>\n

En el lado positivo, "si se est\u00e1 moviendo ahora, si est\u00e1 buscando los buenos ingredientes activos, si est\u00e1 diferenciando sus productos de otras compa\u00f1\u00edas, las oportunidades est\u00e1n ah\u00ed".<\/p>\n

Adem\u00e1s, una se\u00f1al alentadora para el futuro de los insumos agr\u00edcolas es la creciente demanda de carne de cerdo y aves de corral impulsada por la explosi\u00f3n de la clase media de Asia. \u201cEs sorprendente ver (la persistencia de) precios bajos de las materias primas cuando todos los fundamentos est\u00e1n en su lugar. Seguro que volver\u00e1n a seguir hacia arriba, es solo una cuesti\u00f3n de cu\u00e1ndo ".<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El mercado mundial de protecci\u00f3n de cultivos cay\u00f3 9.8% a $55.6 mil millones en 2015, la primera disminuci\u00f3n en los \u00faltimos cinco a\u00f1os,\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":72,"featured_media":58044,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[25,4,26,28,29,6],"tags":[114,209,554,170,135,121,956],"class_list":["post-58328","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-africa-middle-east","category-agrochemicals","category-americas","category-asia","category-europe","category-trade-summit","tag-basf","tag-dupont","tag-featured","tag-glyphosate","tag-monsanto","tag-syngenta","tag-trade-summit"],"yoast_head":"\nLive From the Trade Summit: More Generics, More Mergers to Follow a Tough Year - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The global crop protection market fell 9.8% to 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