{"id":59051,"date":"2016-12-30T10:33:12","date_gmt":"2016-12-30T15:33:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=59051"},"modified":"2019-09-25T06:31:35","modified_gmt":"2019-09-25T10:31:35","slug":"chinese-cp-market-saw-negative-growth-in-2016-where-is-the-market-headed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/agrochemicals\/chinese-cp-market-saw-negative-growth-in-2016-where-is-the-market-headed\/","title":{"rendered":"El mercado chino de CP experiment\u00f3 un crecimiento negativo en 2016: \u00bfhacia d\u00f3nde se dirige el mercado?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Por primera vez en a\u00f1os, se espera que el mercado chino de protecci\u00f3n de cultivos (PC) experimente un crecimiento negativo en 2016. En 2015, el crecimiento de volumen positivo compens\u00f3 la p\u00e9rdida general de valor. Como resultado, el mercado se mantuvo plano con un ligero crecimiento de alrededor de 1,5% interanual. La carga de canales durante varios a\u00f1os a la luz del crecimiento positivo del mercado durante un per\u00edodo continuo llev\u00f3 a excedentes de existencias que se consumieron en parte en 2015 y 2016.<\/p>\n

Los productores en China siguieron un enfoque bastante cauteloso con sus compras agr\u00edcolas como resultado de la presi\u00f3n sobre sus ingresos ejercida por los precios continuamente bajos de las materias primas para productos agr\u00edcolas clave. Aunque los movimientos de los precios mundiales solo se trasladan lentamente a los mercados de un solo pa\u00eds, los precios de producci\u00f3n nacionales en China siguieron la tendencia general. Esto, junto con ratios de uso de existencias m\u00e1s altos de lo habitual para productos b\u00e1sicos clave como el ma\u00edz y el arroz, cre\u00f3 dudas adicionales en las mentes de los productores, lo que llev\u00f3 a una reducci\u00f3n de existencias a un ritmo m\u00e1s lento en la parte inferior de la cadena minorista. En consecuencia, esta \u201crecesi\u00f3n\u201d de la demanda se transmiti\u00f3 en sentido ascendente a los otros eslabones de la cadena de distribuci\u00f3n, lo que provoc\u00f3 el desempe\u00f1o negativo de los principales actores de la industria en todos los \u00e1mbitos.<\/p>\n

En promedio, en el primer semestre de 2016, comparando las cifras de ventas de la industria con las de 2015 para el mismo per\u00edodo, el crecimiento promedio de los principales actores multinacionales del mercado agroqu\u00edmico fue de -6.86%. En contraste, los jugadores emergentes y de nivel 2 como FMC lograron cifras de crecimiento de + 7.86%.<\/p>\n

\"Source:

Fuente: Grupo Kleffmann<\/p><\/div>\n

Dicho esto, hay que tener en cuenta que la contribuci\u00f3n global a la facturaci\u00f3n del mercado global de las 6 principales empresas (en la actualidad) es de aproximadamente 63%; un crecimiento negativo de 6-7% para este grupo tiene efectos claramente rotundos en el resultado global del mercado global. Sin embargo, el crecimiento m\u00e1s abajo del nivel de "tier" es crucial para compensar una parte significativa del valor de mercado perdido. Lo mismo ocurre con China, donde el crecimiento negativo en la industria en general, especialmente impulsado por la demanda, se vio compensado de alguna manera por los jugadores de nivel 3 m\u00e1s peque\u00f1os con una cartera de productos diversificada.<\/p>\n

Despu\u00e9s del primer semestre de 2016, las perspectivas de China para el resto del a\u00f1o mostraban un crecimiento del mercado negativo mucho m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de -10%. Como revelan las encuestas de mercado patentadas de Kleffmann con los usuarios finales de productos agroqu\u00edmicos (productores), la situaci\u00f3n parece un poco "menos peor", con un crecimiento negativo del mercado que se mantiene por debajo de -10% en una comparaci\u00f3n interanual.<\/p>\n

Los agricultores cambiaron del ma\u00edz a la soja y, cuando fue posible, optaron por cultivos de mayor valor, como arroz y hortalizas. El uso de Agchem en cultivos de alto valor se mantuvo fuerte e incluso aument\u00f3 ligeramente, lo que se refleja en un mayor gasto \/ ha. Las multinacionales gestionaron el crecimiento en los sectores de frutas y verduras y los agricultores estaban m\u00e1s interesados en comprar calidad que en cantidad. En otros segmentos de cultivos menos intensivos en PC (menos centrados en fungicidas e insecticidas), los agricultores fueron menos selectivos y compraron productos de PC en funci\u00f3n de las necesidades. El uso preventivo fue menor al habitual. El segundo semestre "mejor de lo esperado" de 2016 se debi\u00f3 al efecto impulsado por el valor de los precios m\u00e1s altos de los ingredientes activos b\u00e1sicos comercializados (por ejemplo, imidacloprid, glifosato y 2,4-D, por nombrar algunos), as\u00ed como a la selecci\u00f3n de la demanda. lentamente.
\nQueda por ver si los aumentos de precios son temporales y solo son el resultado de los precios de la energ\u00eda f\u00f3sil estacionalmente m\u00e1s altos en China. La pol\u00edtica medioambiental cada vez m\u00e1s estricta de China es sin duda otro factor que impulsa los recientes aumentos de precios de los productos b\u00e1sicos agr\u00edcolas clave.<\/p>\n

Las acciones de Agchem est\u00e1n volviendo lentamente a niveles normales y se puede esperar que provoquen una ligera recuperaci\u00f3n del mercado, que deber\u00eda ser visible en la primera mitad de 2017. Sin embargo, el mercado en t\u00e9rminos absolutos est\u00e1 comenzando desde una base mucho m\u00e1s baja en 2017 y solo lograron volver a los valores de mercado de 2013, manteni\u00e9ndose por debajo de $6 mil millones a nivel de f\u00e1brica, estimados para el a\u00f1o de cosecha y calculados utilizando el tipo de cambio promedio del a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

La moneda china se est\u00e1 devaluando a\u00fan m\u00e1s frente al d\u00f3lar, lo que tambi\u00e9n podr\u00eda dar cierto impulso a la demanda internacional, ayudando al mercado a estabilizarse nuevamente a trav\u00e9s de una reactivaci\u00f3n de las exportaciones. Los tiempos tambi\u00e9n parecen haber cambiado para los gen\u00e9ricos: tienen que ser m\u00e1s selectivos en cuanto a su enfoque, ya que ya no todo lo que se pone en el mercado es un \u00e9xito.<\/p>\n

Adem\u00e1s, las regulaciones ambientales y los obst\u00e1culos de registro contin\u00faan ejerciendo una presi\u00f3n adicional sobre los ingredientes activos mercantilizados, alejando los productos establecidos de los productores emergentes.
\nTambi\u00e9n se puede esperar presi\u00f3n sobre segmentos de nicho y productos como los bioplaguicidas, que durante a\u00f1os se consideraron impulsores del mercado futuro. Los bioplaguicidas en particular deben ser observados y analizados de cerca para determinar su \u00e9xito o no en tiempos de recesi\u00f3n del mercado.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

El Dr. Bob Fairclough es el l\u00edder del equipo de la unidad de consultor\u00eda e informaci\u00f3n de tendencias del mercado de insumos agr\u00edcolas de Kleffmann Group, amis AgriGlobe. Es asesor editorial de <\/em>AgriBusiness Global. <\/em>El Dr. Nomman Ahmed es el Gerente Regional de Asia \/ Pac\u00edfico para la investigaci\u00f3n de mercado a nivel de productores sindicados en protecci\u00f3n de cultivos y semillas en Kleffmann Group. Tambi\u00e9n es analista senior del ala de consultor\u00eda e informaci\u00f3n de tendencias del mercado de insumos agr\u00edcolas de Kleffmann: amis AgriGlobe. Sus publicaciones revisadas por pares abordan la econom\u00eda agr\u00edcola, la econom\u00eda del cambio clim\u00e1tico y los agroqu\u00edmicos. Es un colaborador habitual de AgriBusiness Global y puede ser contactado en Nomman.Ahmed@kleffmann.com.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Por primera vez en a\u00f1os, se espera que el mercado chino de protecci\u00f3n de cultivos (PC) experimente un crecimiento negativo en 2016.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":72,"featured_media":53997,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,28],"tags":[1058,554],"class_list":["post-59051","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-asia","tag-china","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"\nChinese CP Market Saw Negative Growth in 2016 \u2014 Where Is the Market Headed? - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"For the first time in years the Chinese crop protection (CP) market is expected to experience negative growth in 2016.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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