{"id":65421,"date":"2020-02-11T10:20:29","date_gmt":"2020-02-11T15:20:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=65421"},"modified":"2020-02-18T15:01:12","modified_gmt":"2020-02-18T20:01:12","slug":"how-will-the-shift-from-nafta-to-usmca-impact-the-mexican-agrochemicals-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/markets\/how-will-the-shift-from-nafta-to-usmca-impact-the-mexican-agrochemicals-market\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfC\u00f3mo afectar\u00e1 el cambio del TLCAN al USMCA al mercado mexicano de agroqu\u00edmicos?"},"content":{"rendered":"

En t\u00e9rminos de pr\u00e1cticas agr\u00edcolas, M\u00e9xico est\u00e1 m\u00e1s alineado con Am\u00e9rica del Sur que con Am\u00e9rica del Norte. No ocurre lo mismo con los alineamientos pol\u00edticos o comerciales. M\u00e9xico est\u00e1 m\u00e1s alineado con el Norte, donde el Tratado de Libre Comercio de Am\u00e9rica del Norte (TLCAN) original elimin\u00f3 esencialmente las barreras al comercio y la inversi\u00f3n entre M\u00e9xico y los EE. UU. La implementaci\u00f3n del TLCAN en 1994 elimin\u00f3 los aranceles sobre m\u00e1s de la mitad de las exportaciones de M\u00e9xico a EE. UU. , incluidos los productos agr\u00edcolas.<\/p>\n

\"TableEn 2018, las exportaciones de productos agr\u00edcolas de M\u00e9xico a los EE. UU. Ascendieron a US $26 mil millones. Las hortalizas frescas ($5.9 mil millones), la fruta fresca ($5.8 mil millones) y las frutas y hortalizas procesadas ($1.7 mil millones) representaron m\u00e1s de 50% de estas exportaciones. En comparaci\u00f3n con 1993 (antes del TLCAN), las exportaciones comerciales generales de M\u00e9xico a los EE. UU. Han aumentado en aproximadamente 800%. Este ha sido uno de los impulsores clave del crecimiento en el mercado agr\u00edcola nacional mexicano desde 1993. Sin embargo, los flujos comerciales funcionan en ambos sentidos, y las importaciones a M\u00e9xico desde los EE. UU. Totalizaron $20 mil millones en 2018. Las principales categor\u00edas de importaci\u00f3n incluyen el ma\u00edz ($3.1 mil millones) y soja ($1.7 mil millones).<\/p>\n

Si bien el d\u00e9ficit comercial de productos agr\u00edcolas es de solo $6 mil millones, el d\u00e9ficit comercial general entre M\u00e9xico y los EE. UU. Asciende a entre $80 mil millones y $100 mil millones por a\u00f1o. Este d\u00e9ficit comercial fue una de las promesas de campa\u00f1a del presidente Trump para "eliminar" o renegociar el TLCAN y, a fines de 2016, Estados Unidos, Canad\u00e1 y M\u00e9xico firmaron un acuerdo para reemplazar el anterior. En junio del a\u00f1o pasado M\u00e9xico se convirti\u00f3 en el primer pa\u00eds en ratificar ese acuerdo conocido como Acuerdo Estados Unidos-M\u00e9xico-Canad\u00e1 (USMCA).<\/a> El USMCA puede considerarse como NAFTA 2.0; sin embargo, hay algunos cambios significativos que tendr\u00e1n un impacto en el comercio agr\u00edcola en el futuro y, a su vez, en el mercado nacional mexicano de plaguicidas. En el momento de la publicaci\u00f3n, el T-MEC hab\u00eda sido firmado por los tres pa\u00edses pero solo ratificado por M\u00e9xico, aunque el Congreso de los Estados Unidos hab\u00eda indicado que estaba dispuesto a aprobar el acuerdo.<\/p>\n

\"Figure<\/p>\n

En gran parte, entonces, como resultado de la alineaci\u00f3n comercial bajo el TLCAN, el mercado interno mexicano ha crecido m\u00e1s r\u00e1pido que muchos otros mercados latinoamericanos, de modo que ahora ocupa la tercera posici\u00f3n dentro del mercado latinoamericano general.<\/p>\n

M\u00e9xico: mercado en crecimiento<\/h2>\n

Seg\u00fan se public\u00f3 en junio pasado, el mercado mundial de protecci\u00f3n de cultivos en 2018 aument\u00f3 a una tasa de 2% en t\u00e9rminos nominales sobre el de 2017. Como cifra comparativa, el mercado mexicano creci\u00f3 en m\u00e1s de 8% en 2018 en comparaci\u00f3n con 2017. M\u00e9xico tambi\u00e9n ha superado considerablemente el crecimiento del mercado global, con una tasa de crecimiento anual compuesta (CAGR) de 4.3% por a\u00f1o durante el per\u00edodo de tiempo de 2008 a 2018 en comparaci\u00f3n con una CAGR m\u00e1s modesta de 2.3% por a\u00f1o para el mercado global durante el mismo per\u00edodo de tiempo.<\/p>\n

\"Figure<\/p>\n

\"Figure<\/p>\n

\"Figure<\/p>\n

\"Figure<\/p>\n

M\u00e9xico, como la mayor\u00eda de los mercados, sufri\u00f3 una ca\u00edda en 2009 (como consecuencia de la crisis financiera) y luego nuevamente en 2014, cuando, entre otros factores, se produjo una marcada ca\u00edda en los precios de las materias primas. M\u00e9xico sufri\u00f3 m\u00e1s que la mayor\u00eda de los mercados y no registr\u00f3 una recuperaci\u00f3n hasta 2018, en parte debido a la incertidumbre sobre el TLCAN y el T-MEC.<\/p>\n

Dejando de lado los aumentos de valor, el mercado tambi\u00e9n est\u00e1 cambiando algo y se est\u00e1 volviendo m\u00e1s centrado en insecticidas y herbicidas al comparar las divisiones del sector de 2008 con las de 2018 (Figuras 2 y 3).<\/p>\n

Lo mismo es cierto si comparamos la importancia relativa de los diferentes grupos de cultivos en t\u00e9rminos de gasto en pesticidas (Figuras 4 y 5).<\/p>\n

El desarrollo m\u00e1s sorprendente del mercado interno durante el per\u00edodo de 2008 a 2018 es el crecimiento en el mercado de ma\u00edz impulsado por un aumento en el \u00e1rea de cultivo, un aumento general en la intensidad del uso de productos (en particular insecticidas) y, m\u00e1s recientemente, las crecientes preocupaciones de un fracaso de las discusiones del T-MEC. La creciente importancia del ma\u00edz y la disminuci\u00f3n de otras frutas y hortalizas tambi\u00e9n explica en cierto modo el cambio en las ventas del sector hacia herbicidas e insecticidas y alej\u00e1ndose de los fungicidas (Figuras 2 y 3).<\/p>\n

Al igual que con el uso de plaguicidas, la producci\u00f3n de ma\u00edz tambi\u00e9n ha crecido. Entre 2008 y 2018, la producci\u00f3n aument\u00f3 a una tasa compuesta anual de aproximadamente 1.6%, con el ma\u00edz blanco creciendo alrededor de 1.2% y el ma\u00edz amarillo alrededor de 7%. Detr\u00e1s de estas tasas de crecimiento se encuentran los rendimientos crecientes, en parte como resultado de una mayor mecanizaci\u00f3n y variedades mejoradas de semillas. Entre 2012 y 2017, el \u00e1rea de ma\u00edz mecanizado creci\u00f3 a una CAGR de 3.5% y a 7.8% en las \u00e1reas de producci\u00f3n irrigadas. Durante ese mismo per\u00edodo, el \u00e1rea cultivada con semilla de ma\u00edz mejorada aument\u00f3 a una CAGR de 4.4%, nuevamente en un 8.2% m\u00e1s alto en las \u00e1reas de producci\u00f3n irrigadas. Adem\u00e1s de las ganancias obtenidas a trav\u00e9s de mayores rendimientos, el aumento de los precios tambi\u00e9n ha aumentado el valor de la producci\u00f3n de ma\u00edz en M\u00e9xico en m\u00e1s de 100% desde 2005, una tendencia que se prev\u00e9 que contin\u00fae.<\/p>\n

Perspectivas para 2020<\/h2>\n

La importancia de un resultado favorable del T-MEC no debe subestimarse en el desarrollo del mercado mexicano de plaguicidas. Estados Unidos tiene una elecci\u00f3n presidencial que se avecina, lo que podr\u00eda descarrilar el acuerdo por completo. Las preocupaciones (en el momento de redactar este art\u00edculo) sobre los derechos laborales en M\u00e9xico tambi\u00e9n tienen el potencial de descarrilar el proceso.<\/p>\n

Sin embargo, al igual que con otras disputas comerciales internacionales, incluida la Guerra comercial China \/ EE. UU.<\/a> y \u201cBrexit\u201d, el T-MEC, si se firma, puede ser uno de un tr\u00edo de acuerdos con un impacto significativo en los mercados mundiales de plaguicidas en 2020.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

De un acuerdo comercial a otro tal vez, el mercado de protecci\u00f3n de cultivos del pa\u00eds ha sido y seguir\u00e1 siendo afectado significativamente.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":377,"featured_media":65444,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,26,5],"tags":[554],"class_list":["post-65421","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-americas","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"\nHow Will the Shift from NAFTA to USMCA Impact the Mexican Agrochemicals Market? - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"From one trade agreement to maybe another, the country\u2019s crop protection market has been, and will continue to be, significantly impacted.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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