{"id":66772,"date":"2020-12-15T14:20:39","date_gmt":"2020-12-15T19:20:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=66772"},"modified":"2021-05-24T14:52:35","modified_gmt":"2021-05-24T18:52:35","slug":"is-supply-chain-recovery-during-a-pandemic-possible-these-experts-say-it-is","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/agrochemicals\/is-supply-chain-recovery-during-a-pandemic-possible-these-experts-say-it-is\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfEs posible la recuperaci\u00f3n de la cadena de suministro durante una pandemia? Estos expertos dicen que es"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Se podr\u00eda decir que las cadenas de suministro globales nunca se han enfrentado a condiciones m\u00e1s variadas y fluctuantes que durante el <a href=\"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/tag\/coronavirus\/\">COVID-19<\/a> pandemia.<\/p>\n<p>Pero estos choques (piense en huracanes, inundaciones, incendios y ataques cibern\u00e9ticos, por nombrar algunos) son en realidad m\u00e1s frecuentes de lo que cree.<\/p>\n<p>&quot;Incluso antes de COVID ... en promedio, las empresas ahora esperan ver una interrupci\u00f3n en sus l\u00edneas de producci\u00f3n de uno a dos meses, que es mucho tiempo, cada tres a\u00f1os y medio o cuatro&quot;, explica Susan Lund, socia de la <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mckinsey.com\/mgi\/overview\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Instituto Global McKinsey<\/a> en Washington, DC. &quot;Entonces, aunque cada vez que hay un desastre, parece que surge de la nada, el hecho es que el mundo tiene m\u00e1s conmociones&quot;.<\/p>\n<p>Lo que el coronavirus ha hecho espec\u00edficamente es poner un gran foco de atenci\u00f3n en el impacto que estos choques pueden tener en las cadenas de suministro globales. En la agroindustria, un impacto lo suficientemente grande puede afectar a toda la cadena de valor porque la presi\u00f3n sobre la oferta aumenta con la creciente demanda. \u201cHemos pasado 25 a\u00f1os creando estas cadenas de suministro globales incre\u00edblemente complicadas y complejas\u201d, dice Lund. &quot;Y fueron dise\u00f1ados para el costo y la eficiencia, pero sin pensar realmente en lo que podr\u00eda salir mal en el camino&quot;.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>El transporte mar\u00edtimo sigue siendo muy impredecible<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Los altibajos son casi interminables en el \u00e1mbito del env\u00edo de la cadena de suministro. De hecho, cualquier modelo decente utilizado para controlar lo que est\u00e1 sucediendo, incluso aquellos que tienen la confianza de 95%, muestra una variaci\u00f3n potencial masiva, explica Keith Holdsworth, consultor senior de cadena de suministro con sede en West Oxfordshire, Inglaterra.<\/p>\n<p>El transporte mar\u00edtimo es el \u00e1rea m\u00e1s impredecible, dice Holdsworth, revisando los 13 carriles que se encuentran en el <a href=\"https:\/\/en.sse.net.cn\/indices\/scfinew.jsp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u00cdndice de transporte de mercanc\u00edas en contenedores de Shanghai (SCFI)<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>De hecho, Perfection Limited, una consultora especializada en la cadena de suministro con sede en West Oxfordshire, Inglaterra, con la que trabaja Holdsworth, inform\u00f3 que la SCFI alcanz\u00f3 un m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico el 30 de octubre de 2020, alcanzando un $1,600- nunca antes alcanzado. m\u00e1s por marca de TEU (unidad equivalente a 20 pies). &quot;Todos los carriles aumentaron en Durban, y con varios transportistas tambi\u00e9n anunciando aumentos generales de tarifas de diciembre, o disfrazados con terminolog\u00eda de recargo por pedido&quot;, comparti\u00f3 la compa\u00f1\u00eda.<\/p>\n<p>Luego, solo dos semanas despu\u00e9s, el 16 de noviembre, Perfection Limited inform\u00f3 que el r\u00e9cord se rompi\u00f3 nuevamente con $1,857.33 por TEU, el \u00edndice compuesto m\u00e1s alto jam\u00e1s visto. Todos los carriles registraron registros que no hab\u00edan visto desde que comenz\u00f3 el \u00edndice en 2009.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEl campo del transporte mar\u00edtimo es un lugar tremendamente complicado en este momento, con espacio limitado, escasez de contenedores, congesti\u00f3n en los puertos y falta de servicio\u201d, informa Perfection Limited. Esto se debe a que &quot;los transportistas a\u00fan est\u00e1n cerrando los viajes, la escasez de contenedores vac\u00edos y los cargos por congesti\u00f3n del puerto que se agregan a muchos carriles&quot;.<\/p>\n<p>La disponibilidad de contenedores vac\u00edos definitivamente distorsiona la capacidad y empeora la variabilidad del env\u00edo, dice Holdsworth.<\/p>\n<p>El director ejecutivo de Maersk, Soren Skou, informa que las tarifas de transporte mar\u00edtimo probablemente se han estancado y volver\u00e1n a niveles normales a finales de 2020. Pero Holdsworth ya est\u00e1 viendo se\u00f1ales de que entre ahora y finales de a\u00f1o, los precios no bajar\u00e1n m\u00e1s. \u201cMi predicci\u00f3n es que se mantendr\u00e1 alta durante el A\u00f1o Nuevo chino\u201d, dice. En 2021, el A\u00f1o Nuevo chino es el 12 de febrero.<\/p>\n<p>Maersk se mantiene optimista en sus previsiones para 2021. \u201cLas cadenas de suministro globales han tenido bastantes cuellos de botella y han elevado los precios\u201d, dijo Skou en una entrevista con Bloomberg Television. Como resultado, los costos de flete se han mantenido inusualmente altos, especialmente en las rutas transpac\u00edficas. Pero \u201ccreo que eso es de naturaleza temporal. Esperamos que las cosas se calmen y se normalicen en 2021 \u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Maersk dice que se espera que sus vol\u00famenes de contenedores en el cuarto trimestre est\u00e9n en l\u00ednea o un poco mejores que los niveles que la compa\u00f1\u00eda vio en 2019. \u201cCreemos que en 2021, veremos un mercado similar al que vimos en 2019 o quiz\u00e1s un poco mejor \u201d, comparte Skou.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Conc\u00e9ntrese en lo que puede controlar<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Lo que sucedi\u00f3 como resultado de la pandemia de coronavirus muestra que, a pesar de eventos similares en el pasado, &quot;el enfoque de gesti\u00f3n de riesgos de la cadena de suministro para eventos como pandemias es muy insatisfactorio&quot;, explica Kumar Singh, fundador de Smart Supply Chains LLC. &quot;El principal impulsor de esto es el proceso de pensamiento de que tales eventos son raros&quot;.<\/p>\n<p>Pero si bien las empresas deben tener una idea de los choques que se producen y lo que podr\u00eda suceder, &quot;las empresas no deben centrarse \u00fanicamente en el evento aterrador (el hurac\u00e1n, la pandemia, lo que sea), sino que realmente deben centrarse en sus vulnerabilidades&quot;, se\u00f1ala. Ed Barriball, socio en la l\u00ednea de servicio de Fabricaci\u00f3n y Cadena de Suministro dentro de la Pr\u00e1ctica de Operaciones, con sede en Washington, DC \u201c\u00bfQu\u00e9 controlas? \u00bfD\u00f3nde es de una sola fuente? \u00bfD\u00f3nde no tiene visibilidad en su cadena de suministro que deber\u00eda? &quot;<\/p>\n<p>&quot;A medida que los incidentes de brotes pand\u00e9micos se vuelven m\u00e1s frecuentes ... las empresas que hacen negocios a nivel mundial necesitar\u00e1n una mejor preparaci\u00f3n y capacitaci\u00f3n para poder implementar un plan r\u00e1pidamente&quot;, coincide Singh.<\/p>\n<p>Y eliminar a China en la cadena de suministro no es realmente un problema, al menos a corto plazo. \u201cDurante las \u00faltimas dos d\u00e9cadas, China ha construido un ecosistema de fabricaci\u00f3n de OEM y m\u00faltiples niveles de proveedores\u201d, dice Singh. \u201cNo es f\u00e1cil replicar ese ecosistema r\u00e1pidamente en cualquier otro lugar, por lo que probablemente tendremos que planificar las cadenas de suministro de China por ahora. Si retira ciertos elementos de fabricaci\u00f3n a otra ubicaci\u00f3n, o incluso tiene un proveedor de respaldo en otro pa\u00eds, es probable que el proveedor tenga sus proveedores de segundo o tercer nivel todav\u00eda en China. Puede llevar d\u00e9cadas construir una cadena de suministro de fabricaci\u00f3n de un extremo a otro que no involucre a China &quot;.<\/p>\n<p>Singh sugiere algunas estrategias: crear un centro de comando de gesti\u00f3n de crisis local, diversificar geogr\u00e1ficamente la huella de sus operaciones en China, invertir en capacidades digitales y crear relaciones estrat\u00e9gicas con proveedores de log\u00edstica.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El espacio limitado, la escasez de contenedores, la congesti\u00f3n en los puertos y la falta de servicio crean un ecosistema turbio pero resistente. <\/p>","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":65762,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[554,54,1843],"class_list":["post-66772","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","tag-featured","tag-featured-home","tag-supply"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is Supply Chain Recovery During a Pandemic Possible? 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