{"id":70157,"date":"2022-11-30T12:07:27","date_gmt":"2022-11-30T17:07:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=70157"},"modified":"2022-12-09T14:39:56","modified_gmt":"2022-12-09T19:39:56","slug":"report-after-two-turbulent-years-fertilizer-markets-may-start-to-settle-in-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/markets\/report-after-two-turbulent-years-fertilizer-markets-may-start-to-settle-in-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Informe: Despu\u00e9s de dos a\u00f1os turbulentos, los mercados de fertilizantes pueden comenzar a asentarse en 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>En medio de la extrema volatilidad del mercado y los precios r\u00e9cord, el consumo de fertilizantes sufri\u00f3 en 2022. Seg\u00fan un <a href=\"https:\/\/research.rabobank.com\/far\/en\/documents\/894300_Rabobank_Fertilizer-Outlook_Fonseca_Nov2022.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">nuevo informe Rabobank<\/a>, es posible una recuperaci\u00f3n del consumo en algunas regiones en 2023, con la ca\u00edda de los precios de los fertilizantes y los precios de las materias primas en niveles hist\u00f3ricamente altos.<\/p>\n<p>Cuando la geopol\u00edtica se encuentra con los mercados de fertilizantes, las cosas se ponen dif\u00edciles para los fertilizantes. Eso es exactamente lo que ha sucedido en los \u00faltimos dos a\u00f1os, cuando las tensiones alcanzaron su punto m\u00e1ximo despu\u00e9s de la invasi\u00f3n de Ucrania. Pero para 2023, podemos esperar que las cosas se calmen un poco, dice Bruno Fonseca, analista senior de insumos agr\u00edcolas en Rabobank. \u201cLos movimientos de precios durante estos \u00faltimos meses se han parecido a los de ciertos per\u00edodos en el pasado\u201d, dice. &quot;La historia se repite. Eso se vuelve m\u00e1s evidente cuando exploramos las tendencias hist\u00f3ricas en el \u00edndice de asequibilidad a lo largo del tiempo\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>El \u00edndice de asequibilidad muestra el precio relativo de una canasta de productos b\u00e1sicos en comparaci\u00f3n con una canasta de fertilizantes. Las tendencias actuales de los precios y la volatilidad est\u00e1n en l\u00ednea con un ciclo de picos de tres a\u00f1os. Si hay que creer en la historia, especialmente en las tendencias observadas despu\u00e9s de la crisis financiera mundial de 2008, los precios deber\u00edan bajar en los pr\u00f3ximos meses.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEl promedio m\u00f3vil del \u00edndice tiene una tendencia a la baja, ya que los precios de los fertilizantes est\u00e1n volviendo a los niveles anteriores a la guerra\u201d, dice Fonseca. \u201cDurante los pr\u00f3ximos tres meses, el \u00edndice continuar\u00e1 con una tendencia a la baja pero se mantendr\u00e1 por encima de lo normal. El punto clave de atenci\u00f3n est\u00e1 en los productos de nitr\u00f3geno, ya que la crisis del gas natural en Europa tiene el potencial de encarecer la urea y el amon\u00edaco y, por lo tanto, mantener el \u00edndice en un nivel alto\u201d.<\/p>\n<h2>Perspectivas de los mercados de fertilizantes<\/h2>\n<p>El mercado de fertilizantes a base de nitr\u00f3geno es el m\u00e1s vol\u00e1til entre todos los fertilizantes debido a su conexi\u00f3n intr\u00ednseca con los mercados de petr\u00f3leo y gas natural. Por lo tanto, a medida que esos productos b\u00e1sicos se vuelvan m\u00e1s vol\u00e1tiles, se espera que los precios de la urea y el amon\u00edaco sigan la corriente. La volatilidad anualizada de 2022 de los precios de la urea hasta mediados de octubre estuvo por encima de 60%, tres veces m\u00e1s que el promedio de cinco a\u00f1os. Mientras dure la crisis del gas natural en Europa, persistir\u00e1 la volatilidad en el mercado de fertilizantes a base de nitr\u00f3geno, con semanas de demanda m\u00e1s fuerte empujando los precios al alza y semanas m\u00e1s d\u00e9biles empujando los precios a la baja.<\/p>\n<p>Los precios de los fertilizantes fosfatados tienen una tendencia a la baja, ya que la demanda fue destruida por los altos precios observados este a\u00f1o. A\u00fan as\u00ed, los altos costos de producci\u00f3n deber\u00edan evitar grandes disminuciones en los precios. La log\u00edstica sigue siendo un riesgo, al igual que el clima adverso que afecta las ventanas de aplicaci\u00f3n. Estos factores podr\u00edan generar una volatilidad material en el mercado, que de otro modo estar\u00eda tranquilo.<\/p>\n<p>El aumento en el mercado de la potasa destruy\u00f3 la demanda. Ahora, los precios se est\u00e1n moviendo a la baja para recuperar esa demanda. La continuaci\u00f3n de las exportaciones de Bielorrusia y Rusia est\u00e1 provocando una reorganizaci\u00f3n de la oferta mundial, lo que presiona a\u00fan m\u00e1s los precios.<\/p>\n<h2>Los altos precios de las materias primas respaldan la demanda<\/h2>\n<p>Los altos precios de las materias primas de los \u00faltimos dos a\u00f1os han brindado a los productores rendimientos sobresalientes y s\u00f3lidas posiciones de capital de trabajo. Los costos de insumos m\u00e1s altos significan que los m\u00e1rgenes de los productores ser\u00e1n m\u00e1s bajos en la temporada de cultivo de 2023 que en los \u00faltimos dos a\u00f1os, pero los m\u00e1rgenes seguir\u00e1n siendo positivos. \u201cCon un capital de trabajo fuerte y m\u00e1rgenes positivos, los productores har\u00e1n recortes m\u00ednimos en los insumos\u201d, pronostica Fonseca. \u201cSu objetivo es maximizar los rendimientos, y eso no se logra reduciendo los insumos, en particular los fertilizantes\u201d.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_70158\" style=\"width: 838px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-70158\" class=\"size-full wp-image-70158\" src=\"https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Rabobank-Fertilizer-Chart.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"828\" height=\"598\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Rabobank-Fertilizer-Chart.jpg 828w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Rabobank-Fertilizer-Chart-300x217.jpg 300w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Rabobank-Fertilizer-Chart-768x555.jpg 768w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Rabobank-Fertilizer-Chart-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Rabobank-Fertilizer-Chart-320x231.jpg 320w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Rabobank-Fertilizer-Chart-480x347.jpg 480w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Rabobank-Fertilizer-Chart-800x578.jpg 800w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Rabobank-Fertilizer-Chart-330x238.jpg 330w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Rabobank-Fertilizer-Chart-100x72.jpg 100w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Rabobank-Fertilizer-Chart-498x360.jpg 498w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Rabobank-Fertilizer-Chart-798x576.jpg 798w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Rabobank-Fertilizer-Chart-85x61.jpg 85w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Rabobank-Fertilizer-Chart-150x108.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 828px) 100vw, 828px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-70158\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Fuente: Rabobank 2022<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/research.rabobank.com\/far\/en\/documents\/894300_Rabobank_Fertilizer-Outlook_Fonseca_Nov2022.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Haga clic aqu\u00ed para descargar el informe<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Una recuperaci\u00f3n en el consumo es posible en algunas regiones, con los precios de los fertilizantes bajando y los precios de las materias primas en niveles hist\u00f3ricamente altos.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":70159,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1848,5,23],"tags":[554],"class_list":["post-70157","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-executive-outlook","category-markets","category-npk","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ 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at historically high levels.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/markets\/report-after-two-turbulent-years-fertilizer-markets-may-start-to-settle-in-2023\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"AgriBusiness Global\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-11-30T17:07:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-12-09T19:39:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Fertilizer-Outlook-Rabobank-Report.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"896\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"504\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Matt Hopkins\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" 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