Cumbre de Comercio de Agribusiness Global<\/a> a principios de agosto. \u201cEl a\u00f1o pasado, no hay duda, hubo una burbuja de herbicidas. Mucho de esto fue causado por personas que estaban realmente preocupadas de que el glifosato no estuviera all\u00ed.<\/p>\n\u201cLos precios subieron bastante hasta enero y luego comenzaron a desplomarse\u201d, continu\u00f3 DeLisi. \u201cHay una gran cantidad de personas sentadas en una gran cantidad de inventario costoso\u201d.<\/p>\n
Para el glifosato y el glufosinato, DeLisi no espera que los inventarios vuelvan a niveles m\u00e1s normales hasta el 2024. Para otros productos herbicidas, muchas compa\u00f1\u00edas importadoras \u201cpisaron los frenos con fuerza en abril y mayo, y es posible que los hayan golpeado m\u00e1s fuerte de lo necesario\u201d.<\/p>\n
M\u00e1s adelante en el a\u00f1o, es posible que deban reabastecerse, y eso podr\u00eda ser dif\u00edcil y costoso, dice. \u201cTodo el mundo necesita vigilar sus inventarios, vigilar sus mercados, estar cerca de sus clientes. La otra parte, para aquellos de nosotros que no somos empresas gigantes (todos hemos visto las cifras del \u00faltimo trimestre de los grandes jugadores en este mercado), cuando las grandes empresas entran en p\u00e1nico, pueden hacer algunas cosas que pueden pisotear un peque\u00f1a empresa. Solo aseg\u00farate de que no te pise un elefante\u201d.<\/p>\n
Este es un territorio relativamente nuevo para la industria.<\/p>\n
\u201cEl \u00fanico paralelo es 2008\u201d, dijo DeLisi. \u201cPero en 2008 tuviste el problema adicional de una crisis bancaria, que afortunadamente no tenemos ahora. Las tasas de inter\u00e9s son otra preocupaci\u00f3n para la generaci\u00f3n de adultos j\u00f3venes que contin\u00faa. Crecieron en una era con tasas de inter\u00e9s muy bajas. Esta generaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s joven son personas que no saben c\u00f3mo tomar decisiones con tasas de inter\u00e9s 5%-6%. Ser\u00e1 un momento dif\u00edcil para los pr\u00f3ximos meses, y no hay mucho que nadie pueda hacer al respecto\u201d.<\/p>\n
Podr\u00eda haber algunos desaf\u00edos con respecto a un cultivo importante, dice DeLisi. \u201cLa gente est\u00e1 metiendo la cabeza en la arena con el ma\u00edz\u201d.<\/p>\n
B\u00e1sicamente, dice DeLisi, existe una desconexi\u00f3n entre la postura del gobierno actual sobre el cultivo de ma\u00edz que se convierte en etanol y los planes para el futuro de los autom\u00f3viles a gasolina.<\/p>\n
La administraci\u00f3n Biden busca poner fin a la venta de veh\u00edculos a gasolina para 2032, dice DeLisi. \u201cHace dos o tres semanas, publicaron la cantidad de etanol que las empresas de combustible deben tomar para cumplir, es simplemente inconcebible.<\/p>\n
\u201cNo se puede poner m\u00e1s de 10% de etanol en la gasolina o la mayor\u00eda de los autos no funcionar\u00e1n\u201d, contin\u00faa. \u201cLa realidad de una reducci\u00f3n en los requisitos de gasolina no va a forzar una desaceleraci\u00f3n en la cantidad de etanol que se produce y, sin embargo, todav\u00eda est\u00e1n convenciendo a la gente para que cultive m\u00e1s ma\u00edz y produzca m\u00e1s etanol. Tiene que haber una desaceleraci\u00f3n dram\u00e1tica en la cantidad de gasolina que se usa si esta administraci\u00f3n se mantiene en su ritmo actual. Tiene que haber una discusi\u00f3n sobre este tema, y hasta ahora no hay discusi\u00f3n\u201d.<\/p>\n
Cuando se le pregunt\u00f3 sobre la suspensi\u00f3n de aranceles y el SGP (sistema generalizado de preferencias) coment\u00f3: \u201cHa sido una decepci\u00f3n general. Todas las suspensiones temporales de aranceles que impactan a esta industria, y de hecho a todo nuestro pa\u00eds, vencieron el 31 deS t<\/sup> de diciembre de 2020. Hubo un proyecto de ley en el Congreso para renovar aquellos que estaban listos para funcionar, y por cualquier conjunto de razones nunca se actu\u00f3. Enterradas en ese proyecto de ley hab\u00eda instrucciones para que la ITC (Comisi\u00f3n de Comercio Internacional) abriera la ventana para aceptar nuevas solicitudes de suspensi\u00f3n de impuestos y renovaciones\u201d.<\/p>\nSi se hubiera aprobado ese proyecto de ley, las suspensiones de impuestos habr\u00edan comenzado en octubre de 2022. \u201cEstamos en tierra de nadie en este momento\u201d, dice DeLisi. \u201cSi aprobaran el proyecto de ley de suspensi\u00f3n de impuestos hoy, expirar\u00eda el 31\/12\/23. Usted podr\u00eda decir, \u00bfpor qu\u00e9 no pueden simplemente tachar '23 y escribir '24 o '25? No pueden hacer eso porque estar\u00edan disparando en la oscuridad sobre cu\u00e1l ser\u00eda el costo de eso\u201d.<\/p>\n
Adem\u00e1s, cada uno de los principales partidos de EE. UU. quiere incluir cuestiones en el proyecto de ley que la otra parte considera insostenibles.<\/p>\n
\u201cEs un desastre\u201d, dijo DeLisi. \u201cHar\u00eda falta un milagro para que suceda algo entre ahora y fin de a\u00f1o. Con suerte, a principios del pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o har\u00e1n algo con respecto a estos dos programas y revitalizar\u00e1n la capacidad de solicitar suspensiones de funciones, lo que significa que no ver\u00e1 una antes del primero de enero del 25\u201d.<\/p>\n
Cuando esto finalmente suceda, las empresas que hayan seguido los procedimientos adecuados podr\u00edan recibir un "buen cheque", dijo DeLisi. Y lo m\u00e1s probable es que India regrese al programa, que es \u201crealmente importante para esta industria porque el dicamba, el glufosinato y el 2-4,D, que son todos productos beneficiarios del SGP y representan aproximadamente un tercio del beneficio en el Cap\u00edtulo 29 (de la legislaci\u00f3n del SGP). Hay mucho dinero potencialmente con GSP). Creo que podr\u00eda suceder debido a la forma en que la Autoridad de Comercio de la India ha jugado sus cartas\u201d.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
En la Cumbre Comercial, Jim DeLisi de Fanwood Chemical ofrece su opini\u00f3n sobre una variedad de temas, incluidos los aranceles de China, las suspensiones de impuestos, el suministro de glifosato y m\u00e1s.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":72912,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-72905","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-trade-summit"],"yoast_head":"\n
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