{"id":73233,"date":"2023-09-20T13:43:12","date_gmt":"2023-09-20T17:43:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=73233"},"modified":"2023-09-21T10:48:49","modified_gmt":"2023-09-21T14:48:49","slug":"russian-wheat-exports-remain-biggest-risk-to-u-s-wheat-elevators","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/markets\/russian-wheat-exports-remain-biggest-risk-to-u-s-wheat-elevators\/","title":{"rendered":"Las exportaciones rusas de trigo siguen siendo el mayor riesgo para los ascensores de trigo estadounidenses"},"content":{"rendered":"

Un modesto repunte en la producci\u00f3n y los suministros de trigo en Estados Unidos est\u00e1 mejorando las perspectivas de rentabilidad entre los elevadores de granos que almacenan trigo. Los precios del mercado de futuros han mejorado para las tres clases principales de trigo y la base de compra se est\u00e1 ampliando tras una cosecha mayor. La cosecha mayor se produce tras dos a\u00f1os de mala producci\u00f3n y una racha hist\u00f3rica de mercados de futuros invertidos que minaron la rentabilidad del almacenamiento de trigo.<\/p>\n

De acuerdo a una nuevo informe del intercambio de conocimientos de CoBank<\/a>, el mayor riesgo para los ascensores en el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o es un fuerte repunte de los precios del trigo. Las existencias de trigo entre los principales exportadores son hist\u00f3ricamente escasas, y cualquier interrupci\u00f3n del flujo de las exportaciones rusas a trav\u00e9s del Mar Negro podr\u00eda desencadenar un fuerte aumento de los precios.<\/p>\n

"La avalancha de trigo ruso barato en el mercado global puede haber creado una falsa sensaci\u00f3n de seguridad en el mercado mundial del trigo", dijo Tanner Ehmke, economista de granos y oleaginosas de CoBank. "El mayor riesgo de margen para el almacenamiento de trigo es la reducci\u00f3n de la cosecha mundial de trigo fuera de Rusia y China, lo que deja al mercado vulnerable a shocks de oferta y volatilidad extrema en los precios del trigo".<\/p>\n

El costo de almacenar cereales, incluido el trigo, sigue siendo hist\u00f3ricamente alto debido al fuerte aumento de las tasas de inter\u00e9s. Como resultado, los elevadores todav\u00eda tendr\u00e1n dificultades para obtener ganancias en los mercados m\u00e1s amplios, particularmente para los trigos duros. Los productores que luchan por obtener margen sobre el transporte buscar\u00e1n oportunidades para beneficiarse del aumento de la base de granos propiedad de la empresa durante la campa\u00f1a comercial.<\/p>\n

Cosecha de trigo de EE. UU.<\/h2>\n

El repunte de la cosecha de trigo de Estados Unidos fue impulsado en gran medida por un aumento sustancial en los rendimientos del trigo rojo blando de invierno en el Medio Oeste, donde los agricultores produjeron la mayor cosecha en nueve a\u00f1os. La cosecha de trigo rojo blando de invierno de este a\u00f1o aument\u00f3 31% a\u00f1o tras a\u00f1o, seg\u00fan las \u00faltimas estimaciones del USDA.<\/p>\n

Con una amplia oferta, los ascensores se beneficiar\u00e1n de acarreos excepcionalmente amplios en el mercado de futuros y de la tasa de almacenamiento variable que a\u00f1ade alrededor de 3 centavos por bushel al diferencial de futuros. El trigo rojo blando de invierno es un trigo bajo en prote\u00ednas que normalmente se utiliza para productos alimenticios como galletas saladas y pasteles.<\/p>\n

En las llanuras centrales y meridionales, la producci\u00f3n de trigo duro rojo de invierno perdi\u00f3 un rendimiento significativo debido a la sequ\u00eda actual. La producci\u00f3n total aument\u00f3 10% a\u00f1o tras a\u00f1o, seg\u00fan estimaciones del USDA, y las ganancias se atribuyen a la ampliaci\u00f3n de la superficie cultivada. La abundancia de prote\u00ednas en la cosecha de trigo rojo duro de invierno en los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os ha provocado una ca\u00edda de las primas de prote\u00ednas. El trigo rojo duro de invierno se utiliza normalmente para pan, bollos y bollos.<\/p>\n

Seg\u00fan el USDA, se espera que la cosecha de primavera de color rojo intenso en las Llanuras del Norte caiga 7% a\u00f1o tras a\u00f1o a pesar de la ampliaci\u00f3n de la superficie cultivada. La siembra tard\u00eda seguida de una sequ\u00eda persistente limit\u00f3 los rendimientos. La cosecha menor se ve agravada por una ca\u00edda en la producci\u00f3n canadiense de trigo rojo duro de primavera que se espera que mantenga los precios con una prima significativa durante el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o. El trigo rojo duro de primavera es un trigo rico en prote\u00ednas que se utiliza para productos como bagels y masa de pizza.<\/p>\n

Mezclar la cosecha de trigo de este a\u00f1o ser\u00e1 una cuerda floja para los elevadores, molineros y panaderos que enfrentan el desaf\u00edo de encontrar trigo duro con bajo a medio contenido de prote\u00edna en un mercado saturado con alto contenido de prote\u00edna. Dado que los trigos duros se comercializan con una prima considerable, los molineros y panaderos se sentir\u00e1n motivados a mezclar m\u00e1s trigo rojo blando con trigo duro. Sin embargo, la mezcla ser\u00e1 limitada debido a marcadas diferencias en el rendimiento de mezcla y horneado.<\/p>\n

Suministros mundiales de trigo<\/h2>\n

La avalancha de trigo ruso barato en el mercado mundial, combinada con un d\u00f3lar estadounidense fuerte, siguen siendo importantes obst\u00e1culos para las exportaciones de trigo estadounidenses. La moneda rusa ha ca\u00eddo bruscamente, 30% en lo que va del a\u00f1o, poniendo a la venta las exportaciones rusas y haciendo bajar los precios mundiales del trigo. Rusia est\u00e1 cosechando actualmente una cosecha de trigo casi r\u00e9cord, con importantes existencias remanentes de la cosecha r\u00e9cord del a\u00f1o pasado.<\/p>\n

En China, el tiempo h\u00famedo durante la cosecha da\u00f1\u00f3 una parte sustancial de la cosecha china de trigo, lo que probablemente provocar\u00e1 que China aumente sus importaciones de trigo.<\/p>\n

Excluyendo a Rusia y China, la relaci\u00f3n entre existencias y utilizaci\u00f3n de trigo en el mundo es casi la m\u00e1s ajustada jam\u00e1s registrada. La sequ\u00eda ha reducido sustancialmente el suministro de trigo en Argentina, Canad\u00e1 y Australia. La cosecha de trigo de Ucrania enfrenta numerosos obst\u00e1culos para ser entregada al mercado mundial debido a la actual guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania.<\/p>\n

El d\u00e9bil desempe\u00f1o de la cosecha de trigo del norte de \u00c1frica tambi\u00e9n se traducir\u00e1 en una mayor demanda de importaciones, al igual que la prohibici\u00f3n de la India sobre las exportaciones de arroz blanco. La prohibici\u00f3n est\u00e1 desplazando la demanda de alimentos del arroz al trigo en las principales regiones importadoras como el sudeste asi\u00e1tico y \u00c1frica.<\/p>\n

Lea el informe, Las exportaciones rusas de trigo siguen siendo el mayor riesgo para los ascensores de trigo estadounidenses<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Las perspectivas de rentabilidad para el almacenamiento de trigo mejoran, pero la escasez de suministros mundiales genera riesgo de volatilidad de precios.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":73234,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-73233","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe","category-markets"],"yoast_head":"\nRussian Wheat Exports Remain Biggest Risk to U.S. Wheat Elevators - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Profitability outlook for wheat storage improves, but tight global supplies bring risk of price volatility.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/markets\/russian-wheat-exports-remain-biggest-risk-to-u-s-wheat-elevators\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_MX\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Russian Wheat Exports Remain Biggest Risk to U.S. Wheat Elevators - 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