{"id":77223,"date":"2024-08-29T15:44:35","date_gmt":"2024-08-29T19:44:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=77223"},"modified":"2024-08-29T15:44:35","modified_gmt":"2024-08-29T19:44:35","slug":"black-swans-2024-an-update-on-events-impacting-the-agroindustry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/markets\/black-swans-2024-an-update-on-events-impacting-the-agroindustry\/","title":{"rendered":"Cisnes negros 2024: una actualizaci\u00f3n sobre los acontecimientos que afectan a la agroindustria"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ha habido un gran inter\u00e9s continuo en Los nueve eventos \u201cCisne Negro\u201d descritos para 2024<\/a>De hecho, me lo han preguntado en varias ocasiones, incluida la 2024 AgriBusiness Global<\/em> Cumbre de Comercio de Agribusiness Global<\/a>, para discutir cu\u00e1n precisas han sido estas predicciones ahora que nos estamos acercando r\u00e1pidamente a la marca de los tres cuartos del a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

A continuaci\u00f3n se presenta una actualizaci\u00f3n de los principales eventos de Swan que est\u00e1n teniendo el mayor impacto este a\u00f1o junto con mis sugerencias sobre c\u00f3mo prepararse para el resto de 2024 y de cara a 2025.<\/p>\n

Cisne Negro 1: Estanflaci\u00f3n de la agroindustria<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Por supuesto, la estanflaci\u00f3n implica una combinaci\u00f3n de alta inflaci\u00f3n y estancamiento econ\u00f3mico, pero ahora la pregunta es: \u00bfestamos realmente viendo cierta deflaci\u00f3n? Los precios de las materias primas se han mantenido relativamente estables en general<\/a> desde finales de 2023, y estos patrones de precios sugieren el potencial de Varios a\u00f1os de ingresos agr\u00edcolas m\u00e1s bajos<\/a>Al mismo tiempo, se han producido descensos en los costos de los insumos: los precios de las semillas y los pesticidas se han estabilizado, mientras que los de los fertilizantes y los combustibles son los que probablemente disminuir\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

Hay un panorama m\u00e1s amplio que afecta a\u00fan m\u00e1s al sector agr\u00edcola. Como la deuda nacional estadounidense sigue siendo alta y las tasas de inter\u00e9s no dan se\u00f1ales de bajar significativamente, el gobierno federal estadounidense est\u00e1 desplazando al sector privado en su b\u00fasqueda de pr\u00e9stamos. Esto, combinado con el continuo aumento del costo del dinero, crea un entorno dif\u00edcil para las empresas que buscan realizar inversiones de capital.<\/p>\n

Cisne Negro 2: China desmoron\u00e1ndose<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Esto contin\u00faa. Est\u00e1 claro que el modelo chino de producci\u00f3n de agroqu\u00edmicos no est\u00e1 funcionando. A nivel mundial hay un exceso de oferta debido en gran parte a la sobrecapacidad de producci\u00f3n de China, lo que da como resultado productos baratos en el mercado mundial y pocos fabricantes ganan mucho dinero. Esto est\u00e1 ejerciendo presi\u00f3n sobre los m\u00e1rgenes de los proveedores y la rentabilidad.<\/p>\n

Cisne Negro 3: Energ\u00eda<\/strong><\/h2>\n

El problema actual es el de los inventarios de materias primas y la creciente demanda de nuevos mercados. El exceso de oferta ha provocado una ca\u00edda de los precios y una deflaci\u00f3n, como se describe en el caso del Cisne Negro 1.<\/p>\n

Black Swan 4: La desglobalizaci\u00f3n pol\u00edtica ha llevado a guerras comerciales y ahora a guerras f\u00edsicas<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Esto contin\u00faa tambi\u00e9n con hostilidades particulares en Europa (Rusia-Ucrania) y Oriente Medio (Ham\u00e1s-Israel). Ahora la pregunta es: \u00bfel pr\u00f3ximo ser\u00e1 el noreste de Asia? especialmente en Corea del Norte y Corea del Sur<\/a>, con influencia de Rusia y posible participaci\u00f3n de China y EE.UU.<\/p>\n

Cisne Negro 5: Inflaci\u00f3n de las tasas de inter\u00e9s<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Un factor clave aqu\u00ed en Estados Unidos son las pr\u00f3ximas elecciones de noviembre, en las que est\u00e1n en juego filosof\u00edas opuestas sobre si se deben aumentar los impuestos y en qu\u00e9 medida. Si los impuestos suben en 2025, bien podr\u00eda ser otro freno para la econom\u00eda que perjudicar\u00eda a\u00fan m\u00e1s a las peque\u00f1as empresas.<\/p>\n

El resto de los cisnes<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Se trata de la migraci\u00f3n laboral (6), la volatilidad clim\u00e1tica (7), la presi\u00f3n regulatoria continua (8) y la tecnolog\u00eda sigue avanzando en el sector agroindustrial (9). Todas ellas siguen su curso sin cesar. De hecho, podr\u00edan considerarse tendencias a largo plazo, o tal vez hasta megatendencias, seg\u00fan el grado en que se manifiesten.<\/p>\n

C\u00f3mo prepararse<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Tal es el estado de nuestros Cisnes Negros de 2024, y la mayor\u00eda se desarrollan como lo predijimos, pero con algunos matices y cambios en otros.<\/p>\n

\u00bfQu\u00e9 pueden hacer las empresas para prepararse? A continuaci\u00f3n, se ofrecen algunas sugerencias:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • Evitar costes<\/strong>El control de los gastos operativos deber\u00eda ser una prioridad. Y como es probable que los pr\u00e9stamos sigan siendo limitados, el costo del dinero alto y los precios de las materias primas estancados, la medida m\u00e1s prudente para 2025 probablemente sea la de aplicar un presupuesto conservador.<\/li>\n
  • Busque oportunidades de expansi\u00f3n<\/strong>Por ejemplo, adquisiciones de activos, fusiones para mejorar el costo del negocio e inversi\u00f3n de dinero nuevo en segmentos de crecimiento.<\/li>\n
  • Controlar el flujo de caja.<\/strong> Este es un buen momento para reducir la deuda y reservar el dinero disponible para oportunidades de inversi\u00f3n.<\/li>\n
  • Acepta la adaptaci\u00f3n.<\/strong> Implementar modelos de negocio inteligentes: espec\u00edficos, mensurables y alcanzables. La necesidad de flexibilidad y concentraci\u00f3n es primordial en tiempos como estos.<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    El experto en mercados Bob Trogele ofrece una actualizaci\u00f3n sobre cu\u00e1n precisas han sido sus predicciones a medida que nos acercamos r\u00e1pidamente a la marca de los tres trimestres del a\u00f1o.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":74401,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1917,4,1848,5],"tags":[54],"class_list":["post-77223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-abg-update-feature","category-agrochemicals","category-executive-outlook","category-markets","tag-featured-home"],"yoast_head":"\nBlack Swans 2024: An Update on Events Impacting the Agroindustry - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Market expert Bob Trogele offers an update on how accurate his predictions have been as we fast approach the year\u2019s three-quarter mark.\" \/>\n<meta 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