{"id":79253,"date":"2025-04-23T14:11:13","date_gmt":"2025-04-23T18:11:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=79253"},"modified":"2025-04-23T14:11:13","modified_gmt":"2025-04-23T18:11:13","slug":"raboresearch-global-fertilizer-markets-face-yet-another-challenging-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/es\/plant-health\/npk\/raboresearch-global-fertilizer-markets-face-yet-another-challenging-year\/","title":{"rendered":"RaboResearch: Los mercados mundiales de fertilizantes enfrentan otro a\u00f1o dif\u00edcil"},"content":{"rendered":"

Los desaf\u00edos geopol\u00edticos que marcaron el inicio de 2025 han generado incertidumbre en diversos mercados. Los insumos agr\u00edcolas, como los fertilizantes, se han visto particularmente afectados. Los precios de los fertilizantes muestran una tendencia alcista para 2025 y est\u00e1n erosionando el poder adquisitivo de los agricultores, ya que los precios de las materias primas no aumentan al mismo ritmo.<\/p>\n

"de RaboResearch<\/a> El \u00edndice de asequibilidad de fertilizantes indica una transici\u00f3n entre ciclos, pasando de un per\u00edodo de asequibilidad relativa a uno en el que los fertilizantes son menos asequibles y el \u00edndice se vuelve negativo\u00bb, se\u00f1ala Bruno Fonseca, analista s\u00e9nior de insumos agr\u00edcolas de RaboResearch. \u00abPrevemos que este escenario desfavorable para el mercado de fertilizantes persistir\u00e1 durante todo el a\u00f1o\u00bb.<\/p>\n

Considerando los diversos factores en juego, es probable que el mercado de fertilizantes enfrente otro a\u00f1o dif\u00edcil en 2025. Esto es particularmente cierto para los fertilizantes a base de nitr\u00f3geno y fosfato. \u00abLos agricultores tendr\u00e1n dificultades debido a la reducci\u00f3n del poder adquisitivo para estos nutrientes, lo que podr\u00eda no resultar en una reducci\u00f3n inmediata de la demanda en 2025, pero el \u00edndice de asequibilidad negativo indica que dichas reducciones ocurrir\u00e1n eventualmente\u00bb, explica Fonseca.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Los compradores est\u00e1n adoptando una actitud de esperar y ver en medio de las restricciones de suministro.<\/h2>\n

A pesar de toda esta incertidumbre geopol\u00edtica, las necesidades de fertilizantes se mantienen estables en regiones como \u00c1frica, Australia, Sudam\u00e9rica, Europa y Estados Unidos. India ha sido un comprador importante en el mercado de fertilizantes, destac\u00e1ndose como un actor clave y garantizando la liquidez necesaria en ocasiones. Sin embargo, la demanda estacional en India ha disminuido y las existencias se han agotado. En consecuencia, la actividad del mercado ha disminuido, ya que los participantes adoptan una actitud expectante antes de tomar cualquier medida.<\/p>\n

Adem\u00e1s, el suministro de algunos nutrientes, como los fosfatos, sigue siendo limitado debido a los cambios en la din\u00e1mica global de los principales actores y a las restricciones a las exportaciones de China. Estas restricciones tambi\u00e9n est\u00e1n afectando a los fertilizantes nitrogenados. \u00abPrevemos que China reanudar\u00e1 las exportaciones en el segundo semestre de 2025, una vez que la demanda interna disminuya tras la aplicaci\u00f3n de fertilizantes de cobertura\u00bb, a\u00f1ade Fonseca.<\/p>\n

Los mercados y los agricultores se enfrentan a incertidumbres de todas direcciones<\/h2>\n

En cuanto a los productos agr\u00edcolas, la percepci\u00f3n del mercado var\u00eda seg\u00fan la din\u00e1mica de cada sector. El mercado del ma\u00edz tiene un importante potencial alcista de precios debido a la escasez de existencias globales y a una disminuci\u00f3n plurianual de la relaci\u00f3n entre existencias y utilizaci\u00f3n. La soja se encuentra en el otro extremo del espectro de precios, ya que las perspectivas de una cosecha r\u00e9cord en Brasil y la disminuci\u00f3n de las exportaciones de soja estadounidense a China pintan un escenario bajista para los precios de la soja.<\/p>\n

Pero las amenazas arancelarias son el principal problema. Los aranceles perturban y da\u00f1an las relaciones comerciales de larga data. En el caso de EE. UU., la cuota de mercado se trasladar\u00e1 a sus competidores (por ejemplo, Brasil) y ser\u00e1 dif\u00edcil recuperarla. Se prev\u00e9 que los aranceles y los conflictos comerciales en curso afecten los precios de los productos b\u00e1sicos agr\u00edcolas, que ya han estado deprimidos durante los \u00faltimos dos a\u00f1os. \u00abLlevamos tiempo advirtiendo que los productores estadounidenses ser\u00e1n los m\u00e1s perjudicados por los nuevos aranceles. En \u00faltima instancia, la econom\u00eda de la oferta y la demanda, as\u00ed como el precio de las toneladas marginales, resultar\u00e1n relevantes. Durante el \u00faltimo a\u00f1o o m\u00e1s, los cambios en las pol\u00edticas han provocado escasez, lo que ha resultado en precios m\u00e1s altos para los fertilizantes estadounidenses en comparaci\u00f3n con los mercados globales, y esta tendencia podr\u00eda continuar en el futuro\u00bb, advierte Fonseca. \u00abSin embargo, los mercados del ma\u00edz, la soja y el trigo a\u00fan cotizan dentro del rango establecido en el verano de 2024, a pesar de toda la volatilidad del mercado y el sentimiento bajista, y el aumento de la volatilidad ofrece oportunidades para todos\u00bb.<\/p>\n

Adem\u00e1s, el suministro de algunos nutrientes, como los fosfatos, sigue siendo limitado debido a los cambios en la din\u00e1mica global de los principales actores y a las restricciones a las exportaciones de China. Estas restricciones tambi\u00e9n est\u00e1n afectando a los fertilizantes nitrogenados. \u00abPrevemos que China reanudar\u00e1 las exportaciones en el segundo semestre de 2025, una vez que la demanda interna disminuya tras la aplicaci\u00f3n de fertilizantes de cobertura\u00bb, a\u00f1ade Fonseca.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A pesar de la incertidumbre geopol\u00edtica, las necesidades de fertilizantes se mantienen estables en regiones como \u00c1frica, Australia, Sudam\u00e9rica, Europa y Estados Unidos.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":74683,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1917,1848,23],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-79253","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-abg-update-feature","category-executive-outlook","category-npk"],"yoast_head":"\nRaboResearch: Global Fertilizer Markets Face Yet Another Challenging Year - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Despite geopolitical uncertainty, fertilizer needs remain stable in regions such as Africa, Australia, South America, Europe, and the U.S.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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