{"id":107615,"date":"2025-12-29T10:33:23","date_gmt":"2025-12-29T15:33:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=107615"},"modified":"2025-12-29T10:33:23","modified_gmt":"2025-12-29T15:33:23","slug":"from-tariffs-to-potash-the-geopolitical-forces-redrawing-brazils-agricultural-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/americas\/from-tariffs-to-potash-the-geopolitical-forces-redrawing-brazils-agricultural-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Das tarifas ao pot\u00e1ssio: as for\u00e7as geopol\u00edticas que redesenham o futuro da agricultura brasileira."},"content":{"rendered":"

O Brasil est\u00e1 no centro das mudan\u00e7as no com\u00e9rcio agr\u00edcola global, incluindo as novas tarifas dos EUA e a crescente influ\u00eancia da China nos riscos geopol\u00edticos que envolvem insumos cr\u00edticos como o pot\u00e1ssio. Para entender como essas for\u00e7as est\u00e3o remodelando o setor agr\u00edcola brasileiro, a estrat\u00e9gia de fertilizantes no pa\u00eds e a seguran\u00e7a alimentar a longo prazo, Agroneg\u00f3cio Global<\/strong> (ABG)<\/strong> Conversei com Matt Simpson, CEO da Pot\u00e1ssio do Brasil.<\/a><\/p>\n

Nesta conversa, Simpson discute os efeitos indiretos da tarifa 50% dos EUA sobre as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es brasileiras, a crescente aproxima\u00e7\u00e3o comercial do pa\u00eds com a China e o esfor\u00e7o do Brasil para reduzir as importa\u00e7\u00f5es de fertilizantes.<\/p>\n

ABG: Com a implementa\u00e7\u00e3o da tarifa 50% pelos EUA sobre uma s\u00e9rie de produtos agr\u00edcolas brasileiros, mesmo que os fertilizantes n\u00e3o estejam inclu\u00eddos, que tipo de impactos voc\u00ea est\u00e1 observando no setor agr\u00edcola brasileiro?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Matt Simpson: <\/strong>Isso provocou uma mudan\u00e7a dr\u00e1stica na forma como o governo brasileiro est\u00e1 respondendo \u00e0s press\u00f5es econ\u00f4micas.<\/p>\n

No in\u00edcio de 2025, o foco estava quase inteiramente nos compromissos ambientais \u2014 especialmente com o Brasil sediando a COP30. A mensagem era sobre a redu\u00e7\u00e3o do desmatamento ilegal, a garantia do fornecimento \u00e9tico de soja e a aplica\u00e7\u00e3o das normas de uso da terra.<\/p>\n

Mas, desde o an\u00fancio das tarifas, as prioridades se ampliaram. O governo agora discute seriamente como apoiar os agricultores e as empresas afetadas pelas tarifas. Est\u00e1 em discuss\u00e3o um pacote de apoio de aproximadamente 40 bilh\u00f5es de reais \u2014 cerca de 1,4 a 7 bilh\u00f5es de d\u00f3lares \u2014 destinado a setores afetados, como o de caf\u00e9 e o de pecu\u00e1ria.<\/p>\n

Algumas grandes empresas, como a JBS, t\u00eam opera\u00e7\u00f5es diversificadas nos EUA, mas os produtores menores est\u00e3o muito mais expostos. Globalmente, os pre\u00e7os das commodities dispararam, adicionando mais uma camada de volatilidade.<\/p>\n

ABG: Com as tarifas em vigor, voc\u00ea v\u00ea o Brasil acelerando seu realinhamento comercial em dire\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 China?<\/strong><\/p>\n

EM:<\/strong> Com certeza. O Brasil \u00e9 o maior exportador de produtos agr\u00edcolas para a China h\u00e1 anos, enquanto os EUA geralmente ficam em terceiro lugar.<\/p>\n

Mas, desde a implementa\u00e7\u00e3o dessas tarifas, temos visto uma mudan\u00e7a dr\u00e1stica. O Brasil entrou em cena para suprir a demanda por soja quase que imediatamente.<\/p>\n

O Brasil est\u00e1 numa posi\u00e7\u00e3o privilegiada para expandir seu papel na agricultura global, gra\u00e7as \u00e0s suas vastas reservas de terras ar\u00e1veis, \u00e0 maior oferta de \u00e1gua doce do mundo e a um clima que permite at\u00e9 tr\u00eas ciclos de cultivo por ano.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Sim, as tarifas aceleraram a aproxima\u00e7\u00e3o do Brasil com a China, porque o Brasil consegue substituir os volumes dos EUA em grande escala.<\/p>\n

ABG: Tem havido muita aten\u00e7\u00e3o voltada para os pa\u00edses que continuam negociando com a R\u00fassia. O Brasil corre o risco de sofrer san\u00e7\u00f5es da OTAN ou de outras entidades?<\/strong><\/p>\n

EM:<\/strong> Que eu saiba, n\u00e3o, pelo menos n\u00e3o diretamente. Fala-se muito sobre compras de petr\u00f3leo, e vimos a \u00cdndia ser atingida por san\u00e7\u00f5es adicionais, mas o verdadeiro risco geopol\u00edtico n\u00e3o \u00e9 o petr\u00f3leo \u2014 \u00e9 o fertilizante.<\/p>\n

Globalmente, a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de pot\u00e1ssio \u00e9 dominada por apenas alguns pa\u00edses. O Canad\u00e1 continua sendo o maior fornecedor, seguido de perto pela R\u00fassia e Bielorr\u00fassia. Juntas, essas tr\u00eas na\u00e7\u00f5es controlam aproximadamente 801.030 toneladas do suprimento mundial total de pot\u00e1ssio, criando uma das cadeias de suprimento de fertilizantes mais concentradas em toda a agricultura.<\/p>\n

Pa\u00edses como os EUA importam 951 toneladas de pot\u00e1ssio (TP3T). O Brasil importa 981 toneladas de pot\u00e1ssio (TP3T). Em ambos os casos, o Canad\u00e1 \u00e9 o principal fornecedor, mas a R\u00fassia e a Bielorr\u00fassia v\u00eam a seguir. Se o pot\u00e1ssio fosse alvo de san\u00e7\u00f5es, o impacto sobre os agricultores brasileiros e americanos seria devastador, e o mundo simplesmente n\u00e3o consegue aumentar a capacidade de produ\u00e7\u00e3o canadense com rapidez suficiente para suprir essa demanda.<\/p>\n

\u00c9 por isso que projetos como o Brazil Potash s\u00e3o t\u00e3o importantes: eles criam uma quarta grande fonte de pot\u00e1ssio em uma regi\u00e3o geopoliticamente est\u00e1vel.<\/p>\n

ABG: O Brasil anunciou um plano importante para reduzir as importa\u00e7\u00f5es de fertilizantes ap\u00f3s a invas\u00e3o da Ucr\u00e2nia. Como est\u00e1 o andamento dessa estrat\u00e9gia?<\/strong><\/p>\n

EM<\/strong>O ponto de virada ocorreu em 2021-2022. Quando os EUA sancionaram Belarus em meados de 2021, os pre\u00e7os da potassa saltaram de cerca de 1.300 para 1.600 toneladas por tonelada. Ap\u00f3s a invas\u00e3o da Ucr\u00e2nia pela R\u00fassia, os pre\u00e7os dobraram novamente, chegando a aproximadamente 1.200 toneladas por tonelada. Poucas semanas depois, o Brasil lan\u00e7ou seu Plano Nacional de Fertilizantes \u2014 uma estrat\u00e9gia ambiciosa para reduzir a depend\u00eancia do pa\u00eds em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 importa\u00e7\u00e3o de fertilizantes de 851 toneladas para 451 toneladas at\u00e9 2050.<\/p>\n

Desde ent\u00e3o, o governo come\u00e7ou a reformular o setor em v\u00e1rias frentes. Eliminou o imposto interestadual sobre fertilizantes \u2014 que antes representava um custo de 8,41 trilh\u00f5es de rupias \u2014 e introduziu novas tarifas de importa\u00e7\u00e3o que est\u00e3o aumentando gradualmente de zero para 41 trilh\u00f5es de rupias ao longo de quatro anos. O governo tamb\u00e9m est\u00e1 investindo fortemente na capacita\u00e7\u00e3o de agricultores, enviando equipes de economistas por todo o pa\u00eds para treinar os produtores em manejo ideal de nutrientes. E, com a potassa agora classificada como mineral cr\u00edtico, o Brasil est\u00e1 oferecendo maior apoio \u00e0 produ\u00e7\u00e3o nacional, incluindo discuss\u00f5es sobre financiamento para projetos como o nosso.<\/p>\n

O Brasil importa cerca de 1,26 bilh\u00e3o de d\u00f3lares em fertilizantes por ano \u2014 de quatro a seis vezes mais do que a maioria dos pa\u00edses. Reduzir essa depend\u00eancia n\u00e3o \u00e9 mais apenas uma meta econ\u00f4mica; \u00e9 uma prioridade nacional.<\/p>\n

ABG: Falando em produ\u00e7\u00e3o nacional, quais s\u00e3o as \u00faltimas novidades sobre... Projeto de Pot\u00e1ssio Autazes<\/a> E o seu cronograma de constru\u00e7\u00e3o?<\/strong><\/p>\n

EM:<\/strong> J\u00e1 iniciamos os trabalhos preliminares no local: limpeza da vegeta\u00e7\u00e3o e nivelamento do terreno.<\/p>\n

No \u00e2mbito comercial, assinamos recentemente um segundo contrato de fornecimento com KeyTrade<\/a>, uma importante empresa comercial su\u00ed\u00e7a. Um terceiro acordo \u00e9 esperado em breve.<\/p>\n

A infraestrutura tamb\u00e9m est\u00e1 avan\u00e7ando.<\/p>\n

Firmamos um memorando de entendimento com a Vittor para a constru\u00e7\u00e3o de uma linha de transmiss\u00e3o de energia de 160 quil\u00f4metros (100 milhas), um investimento de 1.040.200 milh\u00f5es de d\u00f3lares que eles financiar\u00e3o, operar\u00e3o e nos transferir\u00e3o de volta ap\u00f3s 25 anos.<\/p>\n

Est\u00e3o em curso negocia\u00e7\u00f5es com parceiros para acordos semelhantes para o nosso porto, central a vapor e instala\u00e7\u00f5es de energia de reserva.<\/p>\n

Tamb\u00e9m estamos trabalhando com o governo brasileiro em isen\u00e7\u00f5es de impostos de importa\u00e7\u00e3o para equipamentos.<\/p>\n

Resumindo: Sim, o projeto est\u00e1 avan\u00e7ando \u2014 e avan\u00e7ando rapidamente.<\/p>\n

ABG: O Brasil tamb\u00e9m est\u00e1 desenvolvendo v\u00e1rios projetos de fertilizantes no pa\u00eds. Como eles se encaixam na estrat\u00e9gia mais ampla?<\/strong><\/p>\n

EM:<\/strong> Sim, o governo identificou v\u00e1rios projetos para diversificar o fornecimento. N\u00e3o posso falar sobre o andamento de todos eles, mas posso afirmar que o Brasil precisa de m\u00faltiplas novas fontes de fertilizantes \u2014 e n\u00e3o apenas uma \u2014 se quiser reduzir significativamente a depend\u00eancia de importa\u00e7\u00f5es. Nossa bacia hidrogr\u00e1fica, por si s\u00f3, \u00e9 grande o suficiente para um desenvolvimento multigeneracional. Estamos come\u00e7ando com 2,4 milh\u00f5es de toneladas, mas com o tempo, poder\u00edamos dobrar, triplicar ou at\u00e9 quadruplicar a produ\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

Essa escala \u00e9 essencial para reduzir a depend\u00eancia de fornecedores politicamente sens\u00edveis.<\/p>\n

ABG: Alguma considera\u00e7\u00e3o final sobre como o Brasil deve lidar com o atual cen\u00e1rio geopol\u00edtico e comercial?<\/strong><\/p>\n

EM:<\/strong> N\u00e3o se trata apenas de fornecer pot\u00e1ssio ao Brasil. Trata-se de dar ao mundo uma quarta fonte est\u00e1vel de abastecimento.<\/p>\n

Sejam tarifas, san\u00e7\u00f5es, greves portu\u00e1rias ou interrup\u00e7\u00f5es ferrovi\u00e1rias, os agricultores precisam de seguran\u00e7a. O fortalecimento da produ\u00e7\u00e3o de pot\u00e1ssio no Brasil beneficia n\u00e3o apenas os produtores brasileiros, mas tamb\u00e9m, potencialmente, os agricultores da Am\u00e9rica do Norte. Trata-se de resili\u00eancia em um sistema global vulner\u00e1vel.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tarifas, la\u00e7os com a China e riscos relacionados ao pot\u00e1ssio remodelam a agricultura brasileira, enquanto l\u00edderes buscam a independ\u00eancia em fertilizantes e a seguran\u00e7a alimentar a longo prazo.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":72421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1917,26,23],"tags":[54],"class_list":["post-107615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-abg-update-feature","category-americas","category-npk","tag-featured-home"],"yoast_head":"\nFrom Tariffs to Potash: The Geopolitical Forces Redrawing Brazil\u2019s Agricultural Future - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Tariffs, China ties, and potash risks reshape Brazil\u2019s agriculture as leaders push fertilizer independence and long-term food security.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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