{"id":133712,"date":"2026-02-05T10:17:37","date_gmt":"2026-02-05T15:17:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=133712"},"modified":"2026-01-23T10:18:31","modified_gmt":"2026-01-23T15:18:31","slug":"global-crop-protection-powerhouses-face-diverging-risks-in-2026-and-beyond","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/asia\/global-crop-protection-powerhouses-face-diverging-risks-in-2026-and-beyond\/","title":{"rendered":"As principais empresas globais de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos enfrentam riscos divergentes em 2026 e al\u00e9m."},"content":{"rendered":"

Enquanto a agricultura global enfrenta incertezas econ\u00f4micas, instabilidade geopol\u00edtica e mudan\u00e7as na din\u00e2mica de oferta e demanda, tr\u00eas pa\u00edses continuam a desempenhar pap\u00e9is preponderantes no mercado de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos: Brasil, R\u00fassia e China. Cada um deles permanece crucial para a produ\u00e7\u00e3o agr\u00edcola global e o fornecimento de insumos, mas cada um enfrenta desafios distintos que podem moldar a trajet\u00f3ria do setor nos pr\u00f3ximos anos.<\/p>\n

Esses desafios estiveram em foco durante um epis\u00f3dio recente do Relat\u00f3rio Global de Agroneg\u00f3cios<\/a>, com a participa\u00e7\u00e3o de Bob Trogele, CEO da ProAgInvest<\/a>. Com base em d\u00e9cadas de experi\u00eancia em financiamento e investimento agr\u00edcola, Trogele ofereceu uma avalia\u00e7\u00e3o franca do que est\u00e1 por vir para essas pot\u00eancias globais \u2014 e o que isso significa para fornecedores, investidores e l\u00edderes do agroneg\u00f3cio em todo o mundo.<\/p>\n

Brasil: Estresse de cr\u00e9dito encontra incerteza pol\u00edtica<\/h2>\n

O status do Brasil como pot\u00eancia agr\u00edcola \u00e9 indiscut\u00edvel, mas Trogele alertou que o estresse financeiro est\u00e1 testando a resili\u00eancia de toda a cadeia de valor. \u201cA quest\u00e3o fundamental era por quanto tempo o setor de fornecedores \u2014 fornecedores de insumos qu\u00edmicos, nutricionais, de sementes, de equipamentos e o setor financeiro \u2014 conseguiria continuar apoiando a agricultura brasileira\u201d, afirmou.<\/p>\n

Durante anos, os fornecedores ofereceram prazos de cr\u00e9dito generosos para manter o fluxo de produtos, em alguns casos elevando o prazo m\u00e9dio de giro para mais de 300 dias. Segundo Trogele, esse modelo chegou ao seu limite. \u201cO produto n\u00e3o chegou ao mercado, ou o servi\u00e7o n\u00e3o chegou, e depois voltou. Isso causou grandes transtornos financeiros para algumas das empresas que eram fornecedoras no Brasil\u201d, explicou.<\/p>\n

A alta infla\u00e7\u00e3o e as taxas de juros exorbitantes agravaram o problema, levando \u00e0 fal\u00eancia de produtores rurais, varejistas e distribuidores. "O dinheiro est\u00e1 muito caro no Brasil agora, e eles t\u00eam problemas de cr\u00e9dito", disse Trogele. Embora o governo brasileiro tenha tomado medidas para criar mecanismos financeiros que reduzam a depend\u00eancia de fornecedores privados, o caminho a seguir permanece incerto.<\/p>\n

A instabilidade pol\u00edtica complica ainda mais o cen\u00e1rio. Com cerca de 301.030 trilh\u00f5es de d\u00f3lares do PIB brasileiro atrelados \u00e0 agricultura, Trogele enfatizou que \u201ctanto a instabilidade pol\u00edtica quanto o risco de cr\u00e9dito no Brasil devem ser prioridades para qualquer investidor que pretenda entrar no pa\u00eds\u201d, incluindo empresas do agroneg\u00f3cio que atuam no territ\u00f3rio. Por ora, os desafios do Brasil s\u00e3o imediatos \u2014 e inevit\u00e1veis.<\/p>\n

R\u00fassia: Guerra, desgaste e uma quest\u00e3o em aberto<\/h2>\n

O futuro agr\u00edcola da R\u00fassia est\u00e1 profundamente interligado com a guerra em curso na Ucr\u00e2nia. Trogele observou que a economia do pa\u00eds se voltou para a produ\u00e7\u00e3o militar, enquanto suas fontes de receita tradicionais enfrentam press\u00e3o. "Eles t\u00eam tido problemas com sua principal fonte de renda, o petr\u00f3leo, e os europeus est\u00e3o se afastando deles", disse ele.<\/p>\n

Ele acrescentou que a guerra traz destrui\u00e7\u00e3o inevit\u00e1vel. "Qualquer guerra causa muito desgaste \u2014 tanto em termos humanos quanto de capital. Vidas s\u00e3o destru\u00eddas, fam\u00edlias s\u00e3o destru\u00eddas, equipamentos e edif\u00edcios s\u00e3o destru\u00eddos." Embora a R\u00fassia historicamente tenha sofrido esse tipo de desgaste, o impacto a longo prazo na agricultura e nos investimentos permanece incerto.<\/p>\n

Quando o conflito come\u00e7ou, muitos investidores e fornecedores agr\u00edcolas sa\u00edram do mercado. A quest\u00e3o crucial agora, disse Trogele, \u00e9 se eles retornar\u00e3o. \u201cDo ponto de vista da ind\u00fastria agr\u00edcola e da ind\u00fastria de fornecedores, as empresas voltar\u00e3o? Essa n\u00e3o \u00e9 uma pergunta f\u00e1cil de responder\u201d, observou. Muito depende de como o conflito evolui e se a estabilidade econ\u00f4mica poder\u00e1 ser restaurada.<\/p>\n

China: Excesso de capacidade por tr\u00e1s da cortina<\/h2>\n

A China continua sendo um pilar da ind\u00fastria global de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos, tanto como fornecedora quanto como cliente. Trogele reconheceu o sucesso do pa\u00eds em \u00e1reas como a independ\u00eancia energ\u00e9tica, chamando seu progresso de "um trabalho extraordin\u00e1rio", mas logo apontou as contrapartidas. "Isso teve um pre\u00e7o", disse ele, citando a polui\u00e7\u00e3o das usinas de carv\u00e3o e o enorme investimento excessivo em capacidade industrial.<\/p>\n

No setor de agroqu\u00edmicos, esse excesso de investimento teve repercuss\u00f5es globais. "H\u00e1 mais oferta do que demanda em n\u00edvel global", disse Trogele. "Os pre\u00e7os ca\u00edram drasticamente e as margens foram reduzidas em todo o mundo no setor qu\u00edmico."\u201c<\/p>\n

A situa\u00e7\u00e3o econ\u00f4mica mais ampla da China tamb\u00e9m gera preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es. "Eles ainda est\u00e3o operando com base em uma economia de investimento \u2014 construindo coisas \u2014 em vez de uma economia de consumo", disse ele. O alto \u00edndice de desemprego, um setor da constru\u00e7\u00e3o civil em dificuldades e tens\u00f5es geopol\u00edticas aumentam a incerteza.<\/p>\n

Apesar das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es recordes, Trogele alertou que o sucesso superficial mascara problemas mais profundos. \u201cEles precisam de uma economia dom\u00e9stica forte, e n\u00e3o a t\u00eam. Se olharmos por tr\u00e1s da cortina, as coisas n\u00e3o est\u00e3o bem na China\u201d, disse ele. Dada a depend\u00eancia da agricultura global em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 China, a estabilidade naquele pa\u00eds n\u00e3o \u00e9 opcional \u2014 \u00e9 essencial.<\/p>\n

Um ato de equil\u00edbrio global<\/h2>\n

Em conjunto, as perspectivas para o Brasil, a R\u00fassia e a China ressaltam a complexidade que o setor global de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos enfrenta. Risco de cr\u00e9dito, instabilidade pol\u00edtica, guerras e desequil\u00edbrios econ\u00f4micos estruturais est\u00e3o for\u00e7ando as empresas a repensarem suas estrat\u00e9gias e sua exposi\u00e7\u00e3o a esses fatores.<\/p>\n

Como Trogele deixou claro durante sua apari\u00e7\u00e3o no ARelat\u00f3rio Global de Neg\u00f3cios GriBusiness,<\/strong> Esses mercados continuam sendo indispens\u00e1veis, mas navegar por eles exigir\u00e1 cautela, adaptabilidade e uma vis\u00e3o realista dos riscos.<\/p>\n

Para ouvir a an\u00e1lise e as ideias completas de Bob Trogele, assista ao epis\u00f3dio completo do<\/strong> Relat\u00f3rio Global de Agroneg\u00f3cios<\/a> apresentando sua entrevista<\/strong>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Crise de cr\u00e9dito no Brasil, economia de guerra na R\u00fassia e excesso de capacidade na China: Bob Trogele analisa os riscos que est\u00e3o remodelando a prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos em n\u00edvel global.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":60545,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1917,4,26,28,29,1848,5,1849],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-133712","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-abg-update-feature","category-agrochemicals","category-americas","category-asia","category-europe","category-executive-outlook","category-markets","category-sourcing-insider"],"yoast_head":"\nGlobal Crop Protection Powerhouses Face Diverging Risks in 2026 and Beyond - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Brazil\u2019s credit crunch, Russia\u2019s war economy, and China\u2019s 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