{"id":134947,"date":"2026-06-25T16:41:11","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T20:41:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=134947"},"modified":"2026-06-25T16:41:11","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T20:41:11","slug":"el-nino-and-agriculture-regions-most-at-risk-for-crop-and-weather-impacts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/africa-middle-east\/el-nino-and-agriculture-regions-most-at-risk-for-crop-and-weather-impacts\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o e Agricultura: Regi\u00f5es com Maior Risco de Impactos nas Colheitas e no Clima"},"content":{"rendered":"

Um novo\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o<\/a>\u00a0\u00c9 prov\u00e1vel que essa fase comece dentro de algumas semanas, colocando a agricultura em risco.\u00a0<\/a>Alerta mundial. Novas an\u00e1lises de especialistas da Organiza\u00e7\u00e3o das Na\u00e7\u00f5es Unidas para a Alimenta\u00e7\u00e3o e a Agricultura (FAO) permitem mapear detalhadamente onde a seca associada ao El Ni\u00f1o tem maior probabilidade de afetar planta\u00e7\u00f5es e pastagens.<\/p>\n

Como o\u00a0Organiza\u00e7\u00e3o Meteorol\u00f3gica Mundial (OMM)<\/a>\u00a0A an\u00e1lise da FAO, baseada em 41 anos de imagens de sat\u00e9lite hist\u00f3ricas, prev\u00ea um ciclo mais forte do que o normal.\u00a0Sistema de \u00cdndice de Estresse Agr\u00edcola (ASIS)<\/a>), rastreando onde eventos fortes e muito fortes da Oscila\u00e7\u00e3o Sul do El Ni\u00f1o (ENSO) tendem a causar a seca mais severa.<\/p>\n

Os riscos s\u00e3o mais acentuados no Sahel, no sul da \u00c1frica, no sul e sudeste da \u00c1sia, no Corredor Seco da Am\u00e9rica Central e no Caribe, onde algumas \u00e1reas agr\u00edcolas e de pastagens enfrentam mais de 50% de probabilidade de seca nos pr\u00f3ximos meses.<\/p>\n

Muitas das mesmas regi\u00f5es foram duramente atingidas durante os eventos El Ni\u00f1o de 2015-16 e 2023-24. Os ciclos do El Ni\u00f1o exp\u00f5em as mesmas vulnerabilidades e tendem a desencadear quebras de safra, perdas de gado, aumento do endividamento das fam\u00edlias e migra\u00e7\u00e3o em busca de alimentos e \u00e1gua. Somente em 2015-16, o El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0afetado<\/a>\u00a0mais de 60 milh\u00f5es de pessoas e motivou apelos humanit\u00e1rios no valor de 1,4 a 5 bilh\u00f5es de d\u00f3lares em 23 pa\u00edses.<\/p>\n

Os riscos agora est\u00e3o inclinados para o lado positivo, \u00e0 medida que os extremos clim\u00e1ticos colidem cada vez mais com conflitos e dificuldades econ\u00f4micas. \u201cEste El Ni\u00f1o \u00e9 diferente dos anteriores. O planeta est\u00e1 muito mais quente hoje e, com conflitos e inseguran\u00e7a alimentar generalizados, esta nova fase atingir\u00e1 com mais for\u00e7a os locais que j\u00e1 s\u00e3o vulner\u00e1veis e t\u00eam capacidade limitada de adapta\u00e7\u00e3o\u201d, disse Jorge Alvar-Beltr\u00e1n, Oficial de Recursos Naturais da FAO.<\/p>\n

O mapa destaca alvos priorit\u00e1rios para a\u00e7\u00e3o imediata, antes que as previs\u00f5es se transformem em perdas. Em resposta \u00e0 crescente amea\u00e7a, a FAO e o Programa Mundial de Alimentos (PMA) lan\u00e7aram uma\u00a0apelo conjunto de a\u00e7\u00e3o antecipat\u00f3ria<\/a>\u00a0A campanha busca arrecadar 1.042.020 milh\u00f5es de d\u00f3lares para proteger 8,8 milh\u00f5es de pessoas em 22 pa\u00edses de alto risco do impacto potencial de um forte fen\u00f4meno clim\u00e1tico El Ni\u00f1o. O objetivo \u00e9 ampliar as interven\u00e7\u00f5es precoces, incluindo apoio a agricultores e pastores, assist\u00eancia financeira antecipada e sistemas de alerta precoce mais robustos, antes que secas, inunda\u00e7\u00f5es e tempestades se transformem em emerg\u00eancias humanit\u00e1rias.<\/p>\n

Onde a exposi\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 maior<\/h2>\n

O risco raramente se resume apenas \u00e0 falta de chuvas. Uma seca moderada pode ser devastadora em locais que j\u00e1 enfrentam conflitos e fome cr\u00f4nica, onde as colheitas dependem inteiramente da chuva, o gado representa grande parte da riqueza familiar e as fam\u00edlias t\u00eam pouca margem de manobra para se recuperar. Prev\u00ea-se que mais de 80% dos impactos da seca na agricultura ocorram em pa\u00edses de baixa e m\u00e9dia renda. \u201cUm agricultor pode primeiro perder as colheitas, depois o gado e, com isso, todo o seu sustento\u201d, disse Alvar-Beltr\u00e1n. \u201cCom os impactos em cascata de m\u00faltiplas crises j\u00e1 evidentes, h\u00e1 uma necessidade urgente de agir rapidamente.\u201d<\/p>\n

Em toda a regi\u00e3o do Sahel, a inseguran\u00e7a alimentar se agravou por cinco anos consecutivos, enquanto os conflitos continuam a deslocar pessoas e a limitar o acesso a comunidades vulner\u00e1veis. Os mapas apontam para uma ampla faixa de seca agr\u00edcola que se estende do Senegal e do sul da Maurit\u00e2nia, passando pela Costa do Marfim, Gana, Togo, Benim e Nig\u00e9ria, e a leste at\u00e9 a Eti\u00f3pia e o Sud\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

Na \u00c1frica Austral, o sinal \u00e9 mais pronunciado. O ciclo mais recente do El Ni\u00f1o trouxe a pior seca para a regi\u00e3o em mais de um s\u00e9culo, deixando 61 milh\u00f5es de pessoas necessitando de assist\u00eancia, sobrecarregando o gado, os sistemas h\u00eddricos e as pastagens, e levando mais de 8 milh\u00f5es de pessoas \u00e0 inseguran\u00e7a alimentar. A previs\u00e3o da FAO aponta para uma probabilidade superior a 50% de seca agr\u00edcola em grande parte da Nam\u00edbia e do Botswana, estendendo-se a Angola, Z\u00e2mbia, Zimb\u00e1bue, \u00c1frica do Sul e partes de Mo\u00e7ambique e Madag\u00e1scar. Numa regi\u00e3o onde o gado sustenta tanto a seguran\u00e7a alimentar quanto a riqueza familiar, a perda de pastagens rapidamente se transforma em perda de bens e patrim\u00f4nio.<\/p>\n

Em\u00a0Am\u00e9rica Central e Caribe<\/a>, Os riscos de seca podem se traduzir rapidamente em fome. O El Ni\u00f1o de 2015-16 deixou 3,5 milh\u00f5es de pessoas em situa\u00e7\u00e3o de inseguran\u00e7a alimentar no Corredor Seco da Am\u00e9rica Central, enquanto no Haiti as colheitas ca\u00edram at\u00e9 70%, dobrando a inseguran\u00e7a alimentar em quest\u00e3o de meses. As previs\u00f5es atuais apontam para uma probabilidade de 70% de chuvas abaixo da m\u00e9dia em toda a regi\u00e3o. O risco de seca agr\u00edcola \u00e9 maior ao longo do Corredor Seco, na Col\u00f4mbia e na Venezuela, e em Cuba, na Rep\u00fablica Dominicana e no Haiti.<\/p>\n

Na \u00c1sia, o risco se estende a mercados globais cruciais. O El Ni\u00f1o pode enfraquecer a mon\u00e7\u00e3o de ver\u00e3o em grande parte da \u00cdndia, colocando culturas dependentes da chuva, como arroz e milho, sob estresse durante a importante esta\u00e7\u00e3o de crescimento. Em 2015, a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de milho e arroz caiu nos principais pa\u00edses produtores, elevando os pre\u00e7os de importantes produtos aliment\u00edcios. Desta vez, o risco de seca agr\u00edcola se estende do Paquist\u00e3o e da \u00cdndia at\u00e9 Mianmar, Tail\u00e2ndia, Camboja e Vietn\u00e3, e mais a leste, incluindo Filipinas, Indon\u00e9sia e Timor-Leste.<\/p>\n

Alguns dos pa\u00edses identificados como altamente expostos a choques ligados ao El Ni\u00f1o tamb\u00e9m figuram com destaque em\u00a0An\u00e1lise mais recente da FAO e do PMA sobre os pontos cr\u00edticos da fome<\/a>, ressaltando como os choques clim\u00e1ticos interagem cada vez mais com os conflitos e o estresse econ\u00f4mico, exacerbando ainda mais a grave inseguran\u00e7a alimentar.<\/p>\n

Um Mapa para A\u00e7\u00e3o<\/h2>\n

Quando o risco \u00e9 identificado precocemente e em n\u00edvel local, os agricultores e pastores podem tomar decis\u00f5es cruciais sobre o plantio e o manejo do gado antes do in\u00edcio pleno da esta\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivo: adiar o plantio, escolher culturas tolerantes \u00e0 seca, armazenar forragem para o gado e garantir reservas extras de \u00e1gua antes que a escassez comece.<\/p>\n

A an\u00e1lise da FAO pode restringir a avalia\u00e7\u00e3o de risco em algumas \u00e1reas a um \u00fanico quil\u00f4metro quadrado. Mas transformar precis\u00e3o em prote\u00e7\u00e3o significa articular os servi\u00e7os meteorol\u00f3gicos e hidrol\u00f3gicos nacionais, os minist\u00e9rios da agricultura e as redes de extens\u00e3o rural, para que o alerta chegue ao agricultor a tempo.<\/p>\n

\u201cEste n\u00edvel de detalhamento muda o que um governo pode fazer\u201d, disse Riccardo Soldan, Oficial de Recursos Naturais da FAO. \u201cEm vez de dispersar os recursos, ele pode concentrar o apoio nos pontos cr\u00edticos, direcionando transfer\u00eancias de dinheiro, \u00e1gua e irriga\u00e7\u00e3o, ra\u00e7\u00e3o para o gado e outros insumos essenciais para os locais de maior risco.\u201d<\/p>\n

J\u00e1 existem evid\u00eancias de que agir antes que as perdas se instalem pode funcionar. No sul da \u00c1frica, antes do El Ni\u00f1o de 2023-24, um esfor\u00e7o regional de pr\u00e9-temporada direcionou quase \u00a3 1 milh\u00e3o para mais de dois milh\u00f5es de pessoas em sete pa\u00edses, fornecendo sementes, apoio \u00e0 pecu\u00e1ria e melhores previs\u00f5es por meio de sistemas de alerta precoce. Na Am\u00e9rica Central, a distribui\u00e7\u00e3o oportuna de sementes tolerantes \u00e0 seca e de ciclo curto ajudou fam\u00edlias.\u00a0produzir<\/a>\u00a0vegetais, melhorando o abastecimento alimentar dom\u00e9stico e reduzindo a probabilidade de as fam\u00edlias recorrerem a mecanismos negativos de enfrentamento, como vender bens ou pular refei\u00e7\u00f5es.<\/p>\n

A an\u00e1lise da FAO pode ajudar governos e parceiros a decidirem para onde agir primeiro, qual apoio \u00e9 mais urgente e quais comunidades est\u00e3o menos preparadas para lidar com mais uma temporada malsucedida.<\/p>\n

O fen\u00f4meno El Ni\u00f1o est\u00e1 se formando, e os mapas s\u00e3o claros. O que acontecer\u00e1 a seguir depende da rapidez com que as decis\u00f5es forem tomadas.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Especialistas da FAO mapeiam as \u00e1reas onde as planta\u00e7\u00f5es e pastagens s\u00e3o mais vulner\u00e1veis \u00e0 seca.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1477,"featured_media":77214,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[25,26,28,489,926],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-134947","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-africa-middle-east","category-americas","category-asia","category-industry-news","category-plant-health"],"yoast_head":"\nEl 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