{"id":16957,"date":"2009-01-28T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2009-01-28T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.farmchemicalsinternational.com\/2009\/01\/28\/fertilizer-demand-falters\/"},"modified":"2019-09-16T13:48:07","modified_gmt":"2019-09-16T17:48:07","slug":"fertilizer-demand-falters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/fertilizer-demand-falters\/","title":{"rendered":"A demanda por fertilizantes vacila"},"content":{"rendered":"

Aqui est\u00e3o as boas not\u00edcias para fertilizantes: os fundamentos do mercado est\u00e3o fortes, os futuros de nitrog\u00eanio est\u00e3o robustos e a ind\u00fastria espera que a demanda acelere em algum momento de 2009. Portanto, as perspectivas de longo prazo para fabricantes e distribuidores de fertilizantes parecem boas, apesar do colapso macroecon\u00f4mico global no quarto trimestre de 2008.<\/p>\n

\u201cOs impulsionadores globais de hoje s\u00e3o os mesmos de 12 meses atr\u00e1s\u201d, diz Patrick Heffer, secret\u00e1rio executivo da Associa\u00e7\u00e3o Internacional da Ind\u00fastria de Fertilizantes<\/a> (IFA) Comit\u00ea de Agricultura e coautor do relat\u00f3rio anual da organiza\u00e7\u00e3o sobre oferta, demanda e agricultura. \u201cN\u00e3o acredito que possamos permanecer nos baixos n\u00edveis de consumo de fertilizantes (que estamos vivenciando atualmente) pelos pr\u00f3ximos 24 meses.\u201d<\/p>\n

OK, ent\u00e3o agora as m\u00e1s not\u00edcias: Voc\u00ea provavelmente j\u00e1 sabe as m\u00e1s not\u00edcias. No momento, as condi\u00e7\u00f5es macroecon\u00f4micas globais \u2014 principalmente a queda nos pre\u00e7os dos gr\u00e3os e a restri\u00e7\u00e3o de cr\u00e9dito \u2014 for\u00e7aram os produtores a reduzir seus insumos para as culturas de inverno j\u00e1 no solo e adiar a compra de nutrientes para as planta\u00e7\u00f5es de primavera, especialmente em \u00e1reas onde os solos cont\u00eam n\u00edveis apropriados de fosfato, pot\u00e1ssio e pot\u00e1ssio, de acordo com o relat\u00f3rio da IFA.<\/p>\n

Com os pre\u00e7os dos gr\u00e3os para alimentos e ra\u00e7\u00f5es continuando a cair, os fazendeiros provavelmente continuar\u00e3o a esperar para comprar fertilizantes at\u00e9 que tenham uma imagem clara do pre\u00e7o de suas colheitas. Isso significa que um aumento significativo na demanda por fertilizantes provavelmente n\u00e3o ocorrer\u00e1 at\u00e9 bem em 2009, alimentando ainda mais a incerteza para a ind\u00fastria.<\/p>\n

Ap\u00f3s atingirem recordes no in\u00edcio deste ano, os pre\u00e7os das commodities \u2014 do trigo ao cobre \u2014 ca\u00edram de volta \u00e0 Terra. Durante os tempos de expans\u00e3o no in\u00edcio deste ano, os produtores estavam dispostos a comprar fertilizantes a custos ligeiramente inflacionados porque poderiam recuperar as despesas no mercado. Com a queda dos pre\u00e7os das safras \u2014 e as expectativas de que continuar\u00e3o a cair \u2014 os agricultores parecem n\u00e3o estar dispostos a comprometer suas margens j\u00e1 imprevis\u00edveis comprando insumos a pre\u00e7os altos. Embora os insumos estejam ligeiramente mais baixos do que suas m\u00e1ximas no in\u00edcio do ano, eles n\u00e3o ca\u00edram em linha com os pre\u00e7os das safras, diz Heffer, que \u00e9 especialista da IFA em mercados globais e demanda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Balan\u00e7os mundiais de oferta\/demanda: 2007-2008-2009<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
 Produtos<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/td>\n 2007<\/strong><\/td>\n2008<\/strong><\/td>\n 2009<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
 Nitrog\u00eanio (Monte N<\/em>)<\/td>\nFornecer<\/td>\n 126.9<\/td>\n134.2<\/td>\n 139.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
 <\/td>\nDemanda<\/td>\n 126.0<\/td>\n129.4<\/td>\n 133.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
 <\/td>\n   Equil\u00edbrio potencial<\/em><\/td>\n +0.9<\/em><\/td>\n+4.8<\/em><\/td>\n +6.3<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ureia (Mt ureia<\/em>)<\/td>\nFornecer<\/td>\n145.1<\/td>\n150.4<\/td>\n159.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
 <\/td>\nDemanda<\/td>\n141.9<\/td>\n147.6<\/td>\n154.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
 <\/td>\n   Equil\u00edbrio potencial<\/em><\/td>\n+3.2<\/em><\/td>\n+2.9<\/em><\/td>\n+4.4<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00c1cido fosf\u00f3rico
(Monte P2<\/sub>O5<\/sub><\/em>)<\/td>\n		Fornecer<\/td>\n36.9<\/td>\n39.4<\/td>\n40.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
 <\/td>\nDemanda<\/td>\n36.1<\/td>\n35.1<\/td>\n 36.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
 <\/td>\n   Equil\u00edbrio potencial<\/em><\/td>\n+0.8<\/td>\n+4.3<\/td>\n+4.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pot\u00e1ssio (Monte K2<\/sub>O<\/em>)<\/td>\nFornecer<\/td>\n34.7<\/td>\n36.1<\/td>\n37.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
 <\/td>\nDemanda<\/td>\n32.2<\/td>\n30.3<\/td>\n31.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
 <\/td>\n   Equil\u00edbrio potencial<\/em><\/td>\n+2.4<\/em><\/td>\n+5.8<\/em><\/td>\n+6.4<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n

Comit\u00ea de Produ\u00e7\u00e3o e Com\u00e9rcio Internacional do IFA \u2014 novembro de 2008<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Espera-se que apenas duas regi\u00f5es aumentem a demanda em 2009: Sul da \u00c1sia (aumento de 4%) e Leste Europeu\/\u00c1sia Central (aumento de 3,5%). Espera-se que Oeste da \u00c1sia e Europa Central vejam os maiores decl\u00ednios na demanda, com uma queda de mais de 8%.<\/p>\n

No geral, a demanda global deve cair 2,2%, de acordo com a IFA. No entanto, a demanda em 2010 pode aumentar at\u00e9 3,5%.<\/p>\n

Lado da oferta<\/p>\n

A oferta de fertilizantes pode ser mais um ponto de interroga\u00e7\u00e3o do que o lado da demanda. O motivo reside na China por causa das novas tarifas de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o que entraram em vigor em novembro. No momento da impress\u00e3o, era muito cedo para determinar se as tarifas estavam afetando as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es chinesas.<\/p>\n

\u201cO impacto do imposto e a forma como os chineses o implementar\u00e3o \u00e9 imposs\u00edvel de prever\u201d, diz Michel Prud'homme, coautor do relat\u00f3rio do IFA.<\/p>\n

Prud'homme, secret\u00e1rio executivo do Comit\u00ea de Produ\u00e7\u00e3o e Com\u00e9rcio Internacional da IFA, \u00e9 a autoridade da IFA em fornecimento. Ele diz que as tarifas de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o chinesas podem resultar em mais produ\u00e7\u00e3o, j\u00e1 que os exportadores tentam gerar mais receita para compensar impostos mais altos. Ou as tarifas podem tornar a exporta\u00e7\u00e3o de mat\u00e9rias-primas proibitiva para algumas empresas menores, mantendo assim mais fornecimento em casa e reduzindo o fornecimento no mercado global. A China foi o maior exportador de ureia em 2007 e consome um ter\u00e7o do fertilizante mundial a cada ano.<\/p>\n

Em ambos os casos, \u201cas incertezas resultam em uma ind\u00fastria que est\u00e1 esperando para ver o que acontece no mercado\u201d, diz Prud'homme.<\/p>\n

Mas parte da equa\u00e7\u00e3o de fornecimento \u00e9 clara: as taxas de embarque, especialmente as taxas de embarque mar\u00edtimo, reduziram os custos de entrega e instigaram o com\u00e9rcio em todo o mundo. Al\u00e9m disso, o decl\u00ednio do petr\u00f3leo bruto leve e doce e outros produtos \u00e0 base de petr\u00f3leo reduziram os custos para os produtores de nitrog\u00eanio.<\/p>\n

Em geral, a produ\u00e7\u00e3o global de fertilizantes e mat\u00e9rias-primas provavelmente registrar\u00e1 um crescimento muito marginal, e o pouco crescimento que se materializar provavelmente ser\u00e1 impulsionado pela especula\u00e7\u00e3o de tempos melhores em 2010, em vez da demanda real em 2009. Mas, \u00e0 medida que os estoques diminuem em dire\u00e7\u00e3o ao final de 2009, a demanda deve aumentar.<\/p>\n

\u201cEst\u00e1 claro que os principais impulsionadores da demanda s\u00e3o a rela\u00e7\u00e3o pre\u00e7o-colheita-fertilizante\u201d, diz Heffer. \u201cEsperamos uma recupera\u00e7\u00e3o na demanda total possivelmente em 2010, mas isso depender\u00e1 da rela\u00e7\u00e3o daqui para frente.\u201d<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Eis as boas not\u00edcias para o setor de fertilizantes: os fundamentos do mercado s\u00e3o s\u00f3lidos, os contratos futuros de nitrog\u00eanio est\u00e3o robustos e a ind\u00fastria espera que a demanda\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16957","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-markets"],"yoast_head":"\nFertilizer Demand Falters - 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