{"id":19487,"date":"2008-12-15T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2008-12-15T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.farmchemicalsinternational.com\/2008\/12\/15\/war-on-assumptions\/"},"modified":"2019-09-16T13:48:47","modified_gmt":"2019-09-16T17:48:47","slug":"war-on-assumptions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/war-on-assumptions\/","title":{"rendered":"Guerra \u00e0s suposi\u00e7\u00f5es"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00c0s vezes, situa\u00e7\u00f5es criam opini\u00f5es populares t\u00e3o \u00f3bvias, t\u00e3o simples, que quase certamente est\u00e3o mal informadas \u2014 ou, pelo menos, n\u00e3o consideram o quadro geral.<\/p>\n

Esse pode ser o caso de dois dos maiores problemas da agricultura internacional hoje. Estou falando do Organiza\u00e7\u00e3o Mundial do Com\u00e9rcio (OMC)<\/a> Rodada de Doha sobre pol\u00edtica comercial e o aumento dos biocombust\u00edveis. Ambas s\u00e3o amplamente consideradas mudan\u00e7as monumentais que funcionar\u00e3o para o lado positivo da agricultura global.<\/p>\n

N\u00e3o estou argumentando aqui que isso n\u00e3o vai acontecer. Dado o conjunto certo de circunst\u00e2ncias, um ou ambos poderiam corresponder \u00e0s altas expectativas colocadas sobre eles. Mas h\u00e1 raz\u00e3o para duvidar tanto de Doha quanto dos biocombust\u00edveis, e alguns argumentos convincentes contra qualquer um deles se agitar da maneira que s\u00e3o imaginados.<\/p>\n

Para come\u00e7ar com a Rodada de Doha, que virou not\u00edcia em junho quando representantes dos EUA, UE, Brasil e \u00cdndia se encontraram em Potsdam, Alemanha, h\u00e1 muito espa\u00e7o para ceticismo. Potsdam foi palco de outro colapso nas negocia\u00e7\u00f5es, quando os representantes brasileiros e indianos se afastaram da mesa, encerrando a reuni\u00e3o mais cedo. <\/p>\n

Foi o mais recente de uma s\u00e9rie de colapsos <\/strong>que t\u00eam atormentado a Ronda de Doha desde o seu in\u00edcio em 2001 (que, ali\u00e1s, \u00e9 o resultado de outro fracasso; a Ronda estava programada para come\u00e7ar em 1999, na OMC <\/a>Confer\u00eancia em Seattle, EUA, e que ser\u00e1 conhecida como \u201cSeattle Round\u201d). No entanto, a incapacidade dos governos de encontrar um ponto em comum n\u00e3o \u00e9 a \u00fanica raz\u00e3o para questionar Doha.<\/p>\n

Embora eu me considere um defensor do livre com\u00e9rcio, comecei a duvidar das inten\u00e7\u00f5es de algumas na\u00e7\u00f5es em Doha. O esp\u00edrito de Doha em seu in\u00edcio era de com\u00e9rcio justo, de melhorar as situa\u00e7\u00f5es dos pa\u00edses mais pobres do mundo por meio de uma \u201cagenda de desenvolvimento\u201d. No entanto, parece haver agora motiva\u00e7\u00f5es diferentes \u2013 aquelas que veem os pa\u00edses desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento mais poderosos do mundo brigando por acesso ao mercado, deixando as na\u00e7\u00f5es pobres \u2013 e qualquer refer\u00eancia ao \u201cdesenvolvimento\u201d \u2013 fora da discuss\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

D\u00favida sobre a utilidade final de Doha <\/strong>\u00e9 apoiado por v\u00e1rias evid\u00eancias s\u00e9rias. O Banco Mundial, que havia estimado que Doha beneficiaria os pa\u00edses pobres em US$ $60 bilh\u00f5es por ano, reduziu esse valor para US$ $16 bilh\u00f5es, com grande parte disso indo para os pa\u00edses em desenvolvimento mais avan\u00e7ados. Da mesma forma, a recente \u201cAvalia\u00e7\u00e3o de Impacto\u201d da UE relatou que muitos pa\u00edses pobres seriam mais prejudicados do que ajudados por Doha.<\/p>\n

Para biocombust\u00edveis, o caso \u00e9 mais simples. Como muitos leitores da FCI sabem, minha cren\u00e7a \u00e9 que, enquanto os biocombust\u00edveis fizerem parte das agendas nacionais, seria um erro pensar neles em termos de competitividade. \u00c9 uma ind\u00fastria politizada e, como tal, ser\u00e1 alimentada pelos governos.<\/p>\n

Mas isso n\u00e3o o torna invulner\u00e1vel.<\/strong> Em uma conversa com Jim Hines, CEO da ArrozCo<\/a>, ele mencionou v\u00e1rios pontos que podem reverter a opini\u00e3o p\u00fablica sobre biocombust\u00edveis, o que pode colocar em risco seu status de queridinho pol\u00edtico. Entre suas preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es estavam uma rea\u00e7\u00e3o da OPEP que elevaria os pre\u00e7os do petr\u00f3leo, bem como \u201ca rea\u00e7\u00e3o ao custo do leite, carne, produtos enlatados que usam amido de milho... tamb\u00e9m a disponibilidade de mat\u00e9rias-primas para propanil e diuron.\u201d <\/p>\n

O leitor da FCI Alan McCracken tamb\u00e9m expressou d\u00favidas, dizendo: \u201cquando os consumidores perceberem os verdadeiros custos do etanol de milho e a baixa efici\u00eancia de combust\u00edvel, eles se revoltar\u00e3o e matar\u00e3o o projeto\u201d. Como motorista regular no Brasil, McCracken acrescentou que experimentou em primeira m\u00e3o a redu\u00e7\u00e3o da efici\u00eancia de combust\u00edvel dos carros Flex-Fuel.<\/p>\n

Esses pontos n\u00e3o querem dizer que o biocombust\u00edvel ou Doha estejam condenados. Mas, como qualquer tend\u00eancia importante, h\u00e1 lados nas hist\u00f3rias que recebem pouca aten\u00e7\u00e3o. Quanto mais conscientes estivermos de todos os \u00e2ngulos diferentes, mais preparados estaremos para nos adaptar \u00e0s mudan\u00e7as que eles produzem.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00c0s vezes, as situa\u00e7\u00f5es criam opini\u00f5es populares que s\u00e3o t\u00e3o \u00f3bvias, t\u00e3o simples, que quase certamente est\u00e3o mal informadas \u2013 ou pelo menos\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-markets"],"yoast_head":"\nWar On Assumptions - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Somtimes situations create popular opinions that are so obvious, so simple, that they are almost certainly misinformed – or at the very least, not\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/war-on-assumptions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"War On Assumptions - AgriBusiness Global\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Somtimes situations create popular opinions that are so obvious, so simple, that they are almost certainly misinformed – or at the very least, not\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/war-on-assumptions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"AgriBusiness Global\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2008-12-15T05:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-09-16T17:48:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/wp-content\/themes\/AgribusinessTheme\/images\/ABG-Web-No-Feature-Logo.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Matt Hopkins\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/wp-content\/themes\/AgribusinessTheme\/images\/ABG-Web-No-Feature-Logo.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Matt Hopkins\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. tempo de leitura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutos\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/markets\\\/war-on-assumptions\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/markets\\\/war-on-assumptions\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Matt Hopkins\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/4d0c8184f818e1c1add90c6287c9988e\"},\"headline\":\"War On Assumptions\",\"datePublished\":\"2008-12-15T05:00:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-09-16T17:48:47+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/markets\\\/war-on-assumptions\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":660,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Markets\"],\"inLanguage\":\"pt-BR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/markets\\\/war-on-assumptions\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/markets\\\/war-on-assumptions\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\\\/pt\\\/markets\\\/war-on-assumptions\\\/\",\"name\":\"War On Assumptions - 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