{"id":28657,"date":"2011-04-01T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-04-01T04:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.farmchemicalsinternational.com\/2011\/04\/01\/commodities-the-upside\/"},"modified":"2019-09-16T13:41:25","modified_gmt":"2019-09-16T17:41:25","slug":"commodities-the-upside","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/industry-news\/commodities-the-upside\/","title":{"rendered":"Commodities: O lado positivo"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre\u00e7os crescentes e demanda crescente continuam a sufocar o suprimento global de alimentos. \u00c0 medida que os agricultores lutam para repor as reservas, eles n\u00e3o est\u00e3o conseguindo faz\u00ea-lo em um ritmo r\u00e1pido o suficiente para atender \u00e0 demanda.<\/p>\n

\u201cA procura global por todas as mat\u00e9rias-primas est\u00e1 a aumentar \u00e0 medida que as economias em todo o mundo se recuperam\u201d, afirma Alan Knuckman, especialista em mat\u00e9rias-primas, Agora Financeiro<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Isso est\u00e1 fazendo com que os analistas se perguntem o que pode acontecer no futuro pr\u00f3ximo.<\/p>\n

\u25a0 Milho<\/strong><\/p>\n

Os pre\u00e7os do milho aumentaram depois que a agita\u00e7\u00e3o no Oriente M\u00e9dio fez os pre\u00e7os do petr\u00f3leo dispararem globalmente. O petr\u00f3leo subiu para $106 o barril no in\u00edcio de mar\u00e7o pela primeira vez desde o final de 2008. No entanto, os produtores ao redor do mundo est\u00e3o falhando em atender \u00e0 demanda, j\u00e1 que as reservas de milho est\u00e3o caindo para seu n\u00edvel mais baixo em mais de tr\u00eas d\u00e9cadas devido a condi\u00e7\u00f5es clim\u00e1ticas desfavor\u00e1veis.<\/p>\n

\u201cSe voc\u00ea observar os \u00faltimos quatro ou cinco anos de produ\u00e7\u00e3o de etanol, conforme o petr\u00f3leo bruto sobe, a demanda por esses biocombust\u00edveis tamb\u00e9m aumenta\u201d, diz Knuckman.<\/p>\n

Estima-se que a \u00e1rea de milho da Argentina cres\u00e7a 18,5% para 3,2 milh\u00f5es de hectares, em rela\u00e7\u00e3o aos 2,7 milh\u00f5es de hectares do ano passado. As chuvas retornaram ao pa\u00eds ap\u00f3s a seca afetar a regi\u00e3o de dezembro de 2010 at\u00e9 o in\u00edcio de 2011. A chuva pode ter chegado tarde demais para salvar completamente as planta\u00e7\u00f5es de milho, de acordo com o USDA<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Os agricultores nos Estados Unidos, o maior exportador de milho, devem produzir um recorde de 13,73 milh\u00f5es de bushels de milho, de acordo com estimativas do USDA. No entanto, \u00e9 improv\u00e1vel que a quantidade atenda \u00e0 crescente demanda. Produtores em outros pa\u00edses, como a \u00c1frica do Sul, est\u00e3o mudando para outras culturas, como a soja, para economizar em custos de produ\u00e7\u00e3o e capitalizar na forte demanda e pre\u00e7os da soja, de acordo com reportagens da imprensa.<\/p>\n

\u201c\u00c9 interessante que o milho esteja atingindo novas m\u00e1ximas de dois anos e meio e estamos entrando na esta\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivo\u201d, diz Knuckman.<\/p>\n

O USDA estima que os pre\u00e7os do milho cair\u00e3o cerca de 13 por cento antes da pr\u00f3xima colheita de gr\u00e3os, apesar da demanda crescente. O departamento tamb\u00e9m estima que levar\u00e1 mais de dois anos para repor os estoques nos Estados Unidos.<\/p>\n

\u25a0 Algod\u00e3o<\/p>\n

As estimativas da produ\u00e7\u00e3o mundial de algod\u00e3o foram reduzidas de 115,5 milh\u00f5es de fardos para 115,3 milh\u00f5es de fardos, com base em dados do USDA. Os pre\u00e7os em alta aumentaram a produ\u00e7\u00e3o. No entanto, os custos crescentes est\u00e3o fazendo com que os consumidores paguem mais por roupas.<\/p>\n

Os agricultores na \u00c1frica voltaram a cultivar algod\u00e3o por causa dos pre\u00e7os historicamente altos. No Qu\u00eania, os agricultores viram a produ\u00e7\u00e3o dobrar de 23.000 para 49.000 fardos. No entanto, a demanda dom\u00e9stica ainda excede a quantidade produzida.<\/p>\n

\u201cO potencial de choque de pre\u00e7o \u00e9 sempre para o lado positivo dos produtos agr\u00edcolas porque h\u00e1 uma esta\u00e7\u00e3o de crescimento\u201d, diz Knuckman. \u201cVoc\u00ea n\u00e3o pode simplesmente virar o interruptor e obter mais milho, mais cacau ou mais algod\u00e3o. Voc\u00ea tem que esperar at\u00e9 a pr\u00f3xima esta\u00e7\u00e3o de crescimento e torcer para que tudo corra bem.\u201d<\/p>\n

A China, a maior produtora de algod\u00e3o do mundo, tem experimentado um aumento nos pre\u00e7os de produ\u00e7\u00e3o devido aos sal\u00e1rios mais altos nas f\u00e1bricas t\u00eaxteis. Al\u00e9m disso, a \u00cdndia tem permanecido firme em rela\u00e7\u00e3o a um limite de 5,5 milh\u00f5es de fardos para exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de algod\u00e3o, apesar do aumento da demanda global. Um fardo indiano \u00e9 igual a 170 kg, ou cerca de 374 libras.<\/p>\n

Os varejistas est\u00e3o come\u00e7ando a repassar os custos crescentes para o n\u00edvel do consumidor, apesar de uma relut\u00e2ncia anterior em faz\u00ea-lo. Alguns varejistas est\u00e3o esperando aumentos de custos devido \u00e0 demanda crescente e \u00e0 oferta mais restrita, de acordo com fontes de not\u00edcias.<\/p>\n

\u25a0 Caf\u00e9<\/p>\n

A oferta de gr\u00e3os de caf\u00e9 est\u00e1 diminuindo em algumas \u00e1reas do mundo, embora as estimativas gerais de produ\u00e7\u00e3o permane\u00e7am positivas.<\/p>\n

A produ\u00e7\u00e3o mundial no ano-safra 2010\/11 dever\u00e1 aumentar 9,5% para 134,8 milh\u00f5es de sacas, ante 123,1 milh\u00f5es de sacas na temporada 2009\/10, de acordo com um relat\u00f3rio da Organiza\u00e7\u00e3o Internacional do Caf\u00e9 (ICO<\/a>). Um saco equivale a aproximadamente 132 libras ou 60 kg.<\/p>\n

As chuvas na Col\u00f4mbia amea\u00e7aram as \u00e1rvores de caf\u00e9 ar\u00e1bica, causando um aumento nos pre\u00e7os. As chuvas incomuns ocorreram no in\u00edcio da esta\u00e7\u00e3o, quando as \u00e1rvores de caf\u00e9 come\u00e7am a florescer. No entanto, a produ\u00e7\u00e3o tem aumentado constantemente no in\u00edcio de 2011, \u00e0 medida que as \u00e1rvores come\u00e7am a florescer novamente, de acordo com v\u00e1rios relat\u00f3rios.<\/p>\n

Os produtores de caf\u00e9 no Qu\u00eania tiveram colheitas menores por causa da seca. Muitos agricultores quenianos est\u00e3o se voltando para os gr\u00e3os de caf\u00e9 por causa dos pre\u00e7os mais altos e da demanda aumentada. No entanto, grande parte da safra do in\u00edcio de 2011 foi arruinada devido ao clima desfavor\u00e1vel e \u00e0 doen\u00e7a do caf\u00e9, que \u00e9 causada por um fungo que ataca a \u00e1rvore.<\/p>\n

Se a seca e as chuvas n\u00e3o ocorrerem durante o per\u00edodo de tr\u00eas meses entre mar\u00e7o e maio \u2014 o que \u00e9 essencial para a comunidade agr\u00edcola do Qu\u00eania \u2014, a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de caf\u00e9 diminuir\u00e1 significativamente.<\/p>\n

O Brasil, o maior produtor mundial de caf\u00e9, dever\u00e1 se tornar o maior consumidor global de caf\u00e9 at\u00e9 2012, de acordo com ABIC<\/a>, a Associa\u00e7\u00e3o Brasileira da Ind\u00fastria de Caf\u00e9. A primeira estimativa oficial para a produ\u00e7\u00e3o brasileira em 2011\/12 indica que entre 41,9 milh\u00f5es e 44,7 milh\u00f5es de sacas ser\u00e3o colhidas, de acordo com a OIC. Estima-se que o pa\u00eds consuma quase metade de sua produ\u00e7\u00e3o de 2011\/12, ou 20,29 milh\u00f5es de sacas.<\/p>\n

\u25a0 Cacau<\/p>\n

O cacau est\u00e1 mantendo seus altos pre\u00e7os \u00e0 medida que a agita\u00e7\u00e3o na Costa do Marfim, que fornece 40% dos gr\u00e3os de cacau do mundo, levou o produto a uma alta de 32 anos, de acordo com reportagens da imprensa.<\/p>\n

\u201cO cacau \u00e9 uma das poucas commodities que n\u00e3o subiu em 2010\u201d, diz Knuckman. \u201cO cacau, do ponto de vista de risco, era uma commodity mais atraente.\u201d<\/p>\n

Uma proibi\u00e7\u00e3o de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o para o maior produtor de cacau do mundo causou preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o global de que a safra colhida estragaria se fosse armazenada por muito tempo. Estima-se que 475.000 toneladas de cacau, ou um ter\u00e7o da produ\u00e7\u00e3o total da Costa do Marfim, ficaram paradas no porto esperando para serem embarcadas durante a proibi\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

A escassez fez os pre\u00e7os dispararem. A proibi\u00e7\u00e3o estava originalmente programada para terminar em 15 de mar\u00e7o, mas foi estendida.<\/p>\n

\u201cPreocupa\u00e7\u00f5es com o clima e, obviamente, preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es pol\u00edticas com o que est\u00e1 acontecendo na \u00c1frica colocaram press\u00e3o ascendente sobre o cacau\u201d, diz ele.<\/p>\n

A pr\u00f3xima colheita come\u00e7ar\u00e1 em abril e continuar\u00e1 at\u00e9 maio. Se outra proibi\u00e7\u00e3o de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o for decretada, os pre\u00e7os provavelmente disparar\u00e3o ainda mais. Os pre\u00e7os do cacau recentemente ultrapassaram $3.700 por tonelada em mar\u00e7o, acima dos $3.090 por tonelada em mar\u00e7o de 2010.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pre\u00e7os crescentes e demanda crescente continuam a sufocar o suprimento global de alimentos. \u00c0 medida que os fazendeiros lutam para repor as reservas, eles est\u00e3o falhando\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[489],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28657","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-industry-news"],"yoast_head":"\nCommodities: The Upside - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Rising prices and increasing demand continue to suffocate global food supply. 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