{"id":3946,"date":"2008-12-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2008-12-11T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.farmchemicalsinternational.com\/2008\/12\/11\/corn-matures\/"},"modified":"2019-09-25T06:29:27","modified_gmt":"2019-09-25T10:29:27","slug":"corn-matures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/corn-matures\/","title":{"rendered":"O milho amadurece"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Treated<\/p>\n

O milho voltou a ser not\u00edcia, com o Departamento de Agricultura dos EUA (USDA) e o Departamento de Energia (DOE) anunciando recentemente um investimento de US$ 18,4 milh\u00f5es em pesquisa e desenvolvimento de biomassa nos pr\u00f3ximos tr\u00eas anos. A inten\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 tornar a produ\u00e7\u00e3o mais eficiente e econ\u00f4mica, al\u00e9m de desenvolver biocombust\u00edveis limpos.<\/p>\n

Blitz de biocombust\u00edveis<\/p>\n

\u201cO consumo de etanol de milho em 2008\/09 dever\u00e1 aumentar em 281 TP3T, representando 311 TP3T do consumo total de milho\u201d, disse Joseph Glauber, economista-chefe do USDA. \u201cCom base nos dados mensais de produ\u00e7\u00e3o da Administra\u00e7\u00e3o de Informa\u00e7\u00e3o de Energia (EIA), a capacidade de produ\u00e7\u00e3o de etanol excede 7,3 bilh\u00f5es de gal\u00f5es anualmente. Lei de Independ\u00eancia e Seguran\u00e7a Energ\u00e9tica de 2007 <\/a>eleva os n\u00edveis obrigat\u00f3rios de uso de combust\u00edveis renov\u00e1veis para 9 bilh\u00f5es de gal\u00f5es em 2008 e 10,5 bilh\u00f5es de gal\u00f5es em 2009\u201d, continuou ele. \u201cOs pre\u00e7os do milho, conforme previsto atualmente, sustentam a lucratividade do setor; mas as taxas de utiliza\u00e7\u00e3o das usinas ser\u00e3o cada vez mais sens\u00edveis aos pre\u00e7os do etanol e fortemente influenciadas pelos pre\u00e7os do setor energ\u00e9tico. O relativo aperto do balan\u00e7o do milho... dever\u00e1 elevar novamente os pre\u00e7os agr\u00edcolas em 2008\/09. O pre\u00e7o m\u00e9dio recebido \u00e9 projetado em um recorde de $4,60 por bushel, um aumento de $0,60 em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao ponto m\u00e9dio da previs\u00e3o para 2007\/08.\u201d<\/p>\n

Efeitos nos EUA<\/p>\n

"Mesmo com a expectativa de uma grande resposta da oferta em 2008, as previs\u00f5es apontam para uma queda nos estoques de milho dos EUA at\u00e9 o final do ano comercial de 2008\/09", disse Darrel Good, especialista em marketing da University of Illinois Extension. "Os pre\u00e7os devem, em geral, favorecer o milho em detrimento da soja para o plantio de primavera nos EUA. A \u00e1rea plantada dever\u00e1 diminuir em 3,6 milh\u00f5es de acres, enquanto a \u00e1rea colhida para gr\u00e3os dever\u00e1 diminuir em 3,8 milh\u00f5es de acres", disse ele. "A produtividade m\u00e9dia projetada \u00e9 de 154,9 bushels, a maior dos \u00faltimos quatro anos \u2014 3,8 bushels acima da m\u00e9dia de 2007."<\/p>\n

\u201cDo lado do consumo\u201d, continuou Good, \u201co USDA prev\u00ea um aumento de 900 milh\u00f5es de bushels no uso de milho para a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de etanol. Os estoques para o final do ano s\u00e3o projetados em apenas 1,243 bilh\u00e3o de bushels, ou 9,51 TP3T de uso projetado.\u201d<\/p>\n

Se a produtividade do milho dos EUA em 2008 estiver mais pr\u00f3xima da tend\u00eancia de longo prazo de 152,5 bushels, os estoques no final do ano cairiam para 1,045 bilh\u00e3o de bushels, ou 8% de utiliza\u00e7\u00e3o. Uma queda de menos de 850 milh\u00f5es de bushels no uso combinado de ra\u00e7\u00e3o e exporta\u00e7\u00f5es tornaria os estoques no final do ano ainda mais restritos.<\/p>\n

\u201cA conclus\u00e3o\u201d, disse Good, \u201c\u00e9 que a \u00e1rea plantada de milho em 2008 precisa ser maior que 90 milh\u00f5es de acres para reduzir o risco de escassez na oferta e pre\u00e7os muito mais altos\u201d, disse Good.<\/p>\n

Resultados Mundiais<\/p>\n

Os altos pre\u00e7os nos EUA aumentaram as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de outros pa\u00edses, causando alguns problemas \u00e0 medida que os pre\u00e7os locais sobem e surgem escassez. A \u00cdndia, que consome cerca de 14 milh\u00f5es de toneladas de milho anualmente e prev\u00ea uma produ\u00e7\u00e3o recorde de milho de ver\u00e3o de 13,07 milh\u00f5es de toneladas em 2007\/08 \u2014 um aumento de 14,3% em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao ano passado, com uma safra de inverno em torno de 2,5 milh\u00f5es de toneladas \u2014 tem sua ind\u00fastria av\u00edcola exigindo a proibi\u00e7\u00e3o das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de milho. O pa\u00eds exporta principalmente para Vietn\u00e3, Mal\u00e1sia, Indon\u00e9sia, Sri Lanka e Bangladesh, bem como Austr\u00e1lia e Oriente M\u00e9dio, para alimentos e mat\u00e9rias-primas. Com os altos pre\u00e7os nos EUA e as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es chinesas mais baixas, os comerciantes privados indianos est\u00e3o entrando em a\u00e7\u00e3o. Para o ano encerrado em setembro de 2008, as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es privadas podem exceder 200.000 toneladas.<\/p>\n

Com a redu\u00e7\u00e3o dos estoques globais, a China pode sofrer com a escassez de milho. O consumo continuar\u00e1 a crescer, com um aumento esperado de 2% para 98 milh\u00f5es de toneladas, afirma Wang Jun, diretor de pesquisa do Centro de Pesquisa de Investimentos Zhenhua, que estima o consumo industrial em 40 milh\u00f5es de toneladas. "Os pre\u00e7os das oleaginosas dispararam mais de 60% em 2007, o que pode fazer com que os agricultores desviem o foco do milho e reduzam a \u00e1rea de cultivo de milho na China", disse ele. Isso pode elevar os pre\u00e7os do milho na China a at\u00e9 $281,69 por tonelada, disse Jun. Os pre\u00e7os atuais na prov\u00edncia de Sichuan, no centro da China, giram em torno de $261,35 por tonelada, devido \u00e0 capacidade ferrovi\u00e1ria limitada.<\/p>\n

O Brasil, mesmo com o grande sucesso com o biocombust\u00edvel feito de cana-de-a\u00e7\u00facar, est\u00e1 aumentando sua safra de milho \u2014 prevista para 38,4 milh\u00f5es de toneladas este ano, 5,81 TP3T a mais que no ano passado \u2014 para atender \u00e0 demanda por biocombust\u00edveis. Em fevereiro de 2008, o Conselho Nacional de Biosseguran\u00e7a do Brasil concedeu sua primeira aprova\u00e7\u00e3o para o plantio e a venda de dois tipos de milho geneticamente modificado (GM): da Monsanto <\/a>MON 810, comercializado como Guardian e YieldGard, e da Bayer<\/a> LibertyLink. No entanto, um grupo rural brasileiro, Via Campesina<\/a>, disse em um comunicado que os estudos de ambas as empresas eram \u201ccompletamente inadequados e insuficientes para garantir a seguran\u00e7a desses produtos em termos de sa\u00fade humana\u201d. Tamb\u00e9m teme a contamina\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos naturais.<\/p>\n

Produtos qu\u00edmicos para milho<\/p>\n

Como as mat\u00e9rias-primas para herbicidas de milho, como 2,4-D, simazina e atrazina, continuam em escassez nos EUA, os fabricantes de gen\u00e9ricos foram for\u00e7ados a aumentar seus pre\u00e7os. Os pre\u00e7os dos fertilizantes tamb\u00e9m ser\u00e3o pressionados para cima, com a expectativa de nova escassez. Com o milho crescendo novamente este ano, a escassez de glifosato far\u00e1 com que produtos qu\u00edmicos mais novos \u2014 e mais baratos \u2014 tenham alta demanda.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O milho volta a ser not\u00edcia depois do recente an\u00fancio do Departamento de Agricultura dos EUA (USDA) e do Departamento de Energia (DOE) sobre\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":2389,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3946","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets"],"yoast_head":"\nCorn Matures - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Corn is again making headlines as the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Department of Energy (DOE) recently announced an investment of US $18.4\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/corn-matures\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Corn Matures - 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