{"id":50746,"date":"2014-11-07T10:17:57","date_gmt":"2014-11-07T15:17:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.farmchemicalsinternational.com\/?p=50746"},"modified":"2019-10-01T09:56:19","modified_gmt":"2019-10-01T13:56:19","slug":"why-glyphosate-prices-are-falling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/why-glyphosate-prices-are-falling\/","title":{"rendered":"Por que os pre\u00e7os do glifosato est\u00e3o caindo"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"WhyOs pre\u00e7os do glifosato atingiram a m\u00ednima em quatro meses em setembro. Pre\u00e7os baixos prejudicaram a lucratividade dos produtores de glifosato este ano. O excesso de capacidade na China ajudou a manter os pre\u00e7os baixos desde o final do ano passado. As regulamenta\u00e7\u00f5es ambientais aplicadas em mar\u00e7o fortaleceram os pre\u00e7os, com a oferta diminuindo temporariamente, mas os pre\u00e7os ca\u00edram com o avan\u00e7o da temporada de cultivo no Hemisf\u00e9rio Norte.<\/p>\n

Apesar da ampla variabilidade no fornecimento de algumas mat\u00e9rias-primas e subst\u00e2ncias ativas, a qu\u00edmica de sucesso do setor n\u00e3o mostra sinais de ruptura. Eis o porqu\u00ea:<\/p>\n

Os compradores criaram estoques.<\/strong> Os compradores costumam estocar entre setembro e janeiro no Hemisf\u00e9rio Norte, onde cerca de 60% de produtos agr\u00edcolas s\u00e3o cultivados. A maioria dos distribuidores j\u00e1 estava bem abastecida quando as leis ambientais foram promulgadas em mar\u00e7o, e a maioria das empresas permaneceu \u00e0 margem para avaliar o fornecimento de produtos. E, embora tenha havido uma ligeira alta nos pre\u00e7os, muitos compradores refor\u00e7aram seus estoques para se proteger contra um poss\u00edvel aumento de pre\u00e7os como o observado no setor em 2008\/09.<\/p>\n

Os compradores afirmam que cada vez mais compram produtos de forma mais oportunista do que c\u00edclica, devido \u00e0quela era que deixou muitos fornecedores com estoques altos, com os pre\u00e7os caindo de $10 para $12 por litro para $4 para $5 por litro, aparentemente da noite para o dia. Formuladores, atacadistas e importadores n\u00e3o cometer\u00e3o esse erro novamente.<\/p>\n

A demanda est\u00e1 baixa.<\/strong> O glifosato \u00e9 a maior subst\u00e2ncia ativa isolada do mundo, mas seu crescimento diminuiu consideravelmente devido \u00e0 resist\u00eancia a herbicidas, principalmente nos Estados Unidos, Brasil, Argentina e Austr\u00e1lia. Pr\u00e9-misturas com modos de a\u00e7\u00e3o mistos, herbicidas mais antigos e uma mudan\u00e7a antecipada na tecnologia de sementes e caracter\u00edsticas para dicamba e 2,4-D contribuem para o crescimento mais lento do glifosato. O glifosato sempre ser\u00e1 uma ferramenta importante para plataformas de sementes e de descarte, mas existem outros produtos qu\u00edmicos em desenvolvimento atualmente.<\/p>\n

A capacidade ainda est\u00e1 saud\u00e1vel e crescendo.<\/strong> A China perdeu parte de sua capacidade, j\u00e1 que produtores de baixo custo optaram por fechar suas portas em vez de modernizar suas instala\u00e7\u00f5es ou construir novas em parques industriais. Mas esses fornecedores perdidos contribuem com apenas cerca de 101 TP3T da produ\u00e7\u00e3o total de glifosato da China. Empresas maiores preencheram facilmente a lacuna com maior produ\u00e7\u00e3o, e aumentos de capacidade dessas empresas v\u00eam sendo planejados h\u00e1 anos.<\/p>\n

A Monsanto ainda tem capacidade adicional para expandir sua produ\u00e7\u00e3o nos Estados Unidos e no Brasil. Considerando tudo isso, h\u00e1 ampla capacidade global para atender \u00e0 demanda atual e a potenciais aumentos de demanda na China, \u00cdndia e \u00c1frica.<\/p>\n

A for\u00e7a-tarefa da China ainda est\u00e1 no controle.<\/strong> Os grupos de trabalho da CCPIA sobre IAs foram desenvolvidos ap\u00f3s a volatilidade dos pre\u00e7os ap\u00f3s a bolha de 2008\/09. Como os principais produtores se re\u00fanem mensalmente para fazer previs\u00f5es sobre a demanda e ajustar a oferta de acordo, os pre\u00e7os t\u00eam se mantido relativamente est\u00e1veis nos \u00faltimos cinco anos. Essa supervis\u00e3o significa que toda a intelig\u00eancia de mercado do mundo pode se tornar in\u00fatil se essa for\u00e7a-tarefa mudar significativamente de dire\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

Considerando esses fatores, especialistas do setor preveem que o pre\u00e7o do glifosato ficar\u00e1 em torno de $4,50 por litro at\u00e9 o final do ano. Mas 2015 deve apresentar demanda semelhante \u00e0 de 2014. Espera-se que o Enlist Duo da Dow, o Xtend da Monsanto e o Engenia da BASF estejam dispon\u00edveis para a safra de 2015, mas atrasos e incertezas quanto \u00e0 disponibilidade de compostos qu\u00edmicos complementares significam que a ado\u00e7\u00e3o ser\u00e1 baixa no pr\u00f3ximo ano. 2016 pode ser uma hist\u00f3ria bem diferente.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A demanda est\u00e1 baixa. A oferta est\u00e1 est\u00e1vel, e os compradores est\u00e3o mais oportunistas do que c\u00edclicos.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":53009,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[26,28,5],"tags":[114,554,170,135],"class_list":["post-50746","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-americas","category-asia","category-markets","tag-basf","tag-featured","tag-glyphosate","tag-monsanto"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy Glyphosate Prices Are Falling - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Demand is down. 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