{"id":57309,"date":"2016-02-12T12:37:22","date_gmt":"2016-02-12T17:37:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=57309"},"modified":"2019-09-25T06:31:15","modified_gmt":"2019-09-25T10:31:15","slug":"2015-agrichemical-sales-fall-to-54-6-billion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/2015-agrichemical-sales-fall-to-54-6-billion\/","title":{"rendered":"Vendas de agroqu\u00edmicos caem para $54,6 bilh\u00f5es em 2015"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"world_2\"Em termos nominais, o mercado global de produtos qu\u00edmicos para prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos caiu para $54,6 bilh\u00f5es no ano-safra de 2015, medido no n\u00edvel ex-empresa. Comparado ao recorde hist\u00f3rico de $60,5 bilh\u00f5es em 2014, isso representa um decl\u00ednio de cerca de 9,8%. \u00c9 tamb\u00e9m o primeiro ano em que o mercado caiu nesta d\u00e9cada e encerra um per\u00edodo de cinco anos de crescimento.<\/p>\n

A escrita estava na parede j\u00e1 no in\u00edcio de 2014, ent\u00e3o n\u00e3o \u00e9 nenhuma surpresa que o mercado tenha declinado nessa quantia. No entanto, como sempre, o diabo est\u00e1 nos detalhes e, embora um decl\u00ednio de 10% em termos nominais seja o caso, n\u00e3o \u00e9 assim quando expresso em termos reais. Se retirarmos o efeito do movimento da moeda e expressarmos o mercado em moeda constante (2014), ent\u00e3o, na verdade, o inverso \u00e9 verdadeiro: o mercado viu uma ligeira melhora. As press\u00f5es inflacion\u00e1rias, quando levadas em considera\u00e7\u00e3o, mudar\u00e3o o quadro mais uma vez, mas, no geral, em termos reais, veremos um crescimento, embora significativamente menor do que tem sido o caso nos \u00faltimos anos. Al\u00e9m do impacto de fatores externos, como ventos contr\u00e1rios da moeda e instabilidade do mercado emergente, pre\u00e7os significativamente mais baixos de commodities, disponibilidade de cr\u00e9dito, padr\u00f5es clim\u00e1ticos vari\u00e1veis, incluindo o impacto do atual fen\u00f4meno clim\u00e1tico El Ni\u00f1o, tamb\u00e9m contribu\u00edram para essa desacelera\u00e7\u00e3o. N\u00e3o t\u00e3o bem documentado \u00e9 o efeito dos padr\u00f5es de compra dos agricultores "rebaixando" as compras para alternativas mais baratas sem patente, \u00e0 medida que a press\u00e3o sobre as rendas agr\u00edcolas aumenta. A tend\u00eancia pode muito bem ser revertida quando a renda agr\u00edcola melhorar, mas isso ainda \u00e9 uma inc\u00f3gnita.<\/p>\n

A avalia\u00e7\u00e3o de valor de Kleffmann para a ind\u00fastria de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos continua mais alta do que outras estimativas e por um bom motivo. Um n\u00famero crescente de pesquisas com agricultores e cada vez mais na regi\u00e3o asi\u00e1tica permite a coleta de dados mais realistas sobre aplica\u00e7\u00f5es de campo em vez de invent\u00e1rio se movendo pela cadeia de valor. Esses dados de uso do produto capturam mais produtos p\u00f3s-patente sendo usados e dependem menos de informa\u00e7\u00f5es de participa\u00e7\u00e3o de mercado e valor fornecidas por, por exemplo, empresas multinacionais. Uma compara\u00e7\u00e3o interessante \u00e9 entre as vendas relatadas das principais empresas e as do mercado geral em 2015. \u00c9 uma observa\u00e7\u00e3o razo\u00e1vel que as principais empresas tiveram um momento mais dif\u00edcil em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com o mercado geral, o que, por sua vez, levou \u00e0 suposi\u00e7\u00e3o de que a cadeia de distribui\u00e7\u00e3o, pelo menos em parte, preencheu o vazio. Na verdade, isso \u00e9 o inverso da situa\u00e7\u00e3o em 2014. Se a cadeia de suprimentos voltou a um equil\u00edbrio de antes de 2014 ou de fato est\u00e1 agora efetivamente desestocada, nos leva a v\u00e1rias suposi\u00e7\u00f5es sobre o mercado em 2016 e no futuro. Tamb\u00e9m \u00e9 verdade que muitas das empresas menores tiveram um desempenho melhor que as multinacionais em 2015.<\/p>\n

Embora o desempenho geral do mercado em 2015 possa ser considerado uma decep\u00e7\u00e3o, h\u00e1 algumas estrelas brilhantes. O enfraquecimento maci\u00e7o de muitas moedas em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao d\u00f3lar americano esconde algumas boas oportunidades locais. Vendas fortes em termos de moeda local na Ucr\u00e2nia e na R\u00fassia se destacam e continuam a sequ\u00eancia de bons anos nesses mercados. A Am\u00e9rica Latina est\u00e1 muito na mesma situa\u00e7\u00e3o em que o crescimento de dois d\u00edgitos em termos de moeda local no Brasil se traduziu em decl\u00ednio de dois d\u00edgitos quando convertido para d\u00f3lares americanos, puramente devido ao movimento da moeda. O M\u00e9xico, com uma temporada de crescimento muito melhor em 2015, teve um desempenho excepcionalmente bom, mesmo quando convertido para d\u00f3lares americanos.<\/p>\n

Na \u00c1sia, houve menos oportunidades de crescimento em contraste com a temporada de 2014. Os mercados da China e da \u00cdndia cresceram em moeda local, mas n\u00e3o nos n\u00edveis vistos no passado, um tanto an\u00e1logos aos desenvolvimentos do PIB. O mercado japon\u00eas caiu 2% em moeda local. Esses tr\u00eas principais mercados asi\u00e1ticos, no entanto, todos efetivamente viram decl\u00ednios quando convertidos para d\u00f3lares americanos, significativamente no caso do Jap\u00e3o. Na China, que est\u00e1 se transformando cada vez mais em um mercado maduro, a agricultura est\u00e1 no meio de um per\u00edodo de mudan\u00e7a estrutural. A moderniza\u00e7\u00e3o do setor \u2014 enfatizada por uma velocidade acelerada de transfer\u00eancia de terras e repress\u00e3o \u00e0 "toxicidade excessiva" contribuiu em parte para uma desacelera\u00e7\u00e3o transit\u00f3ria do mercado. No futuro pr\u00f3ximo, no entanto, a moderniza\u00e7\u00e3o da agricultura chinesa deve estimular a demanda por insumos agr\u00edcolas de alta qualidade.<\/p>\n

Dos 28 mercados da UE, a It\u00e1lia teve um desempenho melhor do que a maioria, com um crescimento pr\u00f3ximo de 4% em termos de euro. A Alemanha viu uma ligeira melhora, enquanto a Fran\u00e7a caiu em pouco mais de 1%, estreitando ainda mais a lacuna entre esses dois principais mercados de pa\u00edses da UE. Quando traduzidos para d\u00f3lares americanos, no entanto, todos os mercados de euro tiveram decl\u00ednios de dois d\u00edgitos, como foi o caso do mercado do Reino Unido baseado em libras esterlinas.<\/p>\n

Na regi\u00e3o da Am\u00e9rica do Norte, o mercado dos EUA caiu pela primeira vez em v\u00e1rios anos e, enquanto o mercado canadense ficou essencialmente est\u00e1vel em moeda local, a regi\u00e3o como um todo caiu perto de 5% em termos de US$.<\/p>\n

A regi\u00e3o da \u00c1frica e Oriente M\u00e9dio continua sendo uma \u00e1rea com vasto potencial e vendas subnotificadas no varejo. A Turquia, por outro lado, viu uma melhora significativa, mesmo quando expressa em d\u00f3lares americanos. A \u00c1frica do Sul continua sendo um mercado robusto, especialmente para produtos de maior valor, mas sofreu uma desacelera\u00e7\u00e3o em 2015 em compara\u00e7\u00e3o a 2014. Para muitos dos outros mercados africanos, no entanto, onde os requisitos de registro s\u00e3o menos robustos, os produtos de baixo valor continuam a dominar para o benef\u00edcio geral dos produtores gen\u00e9ricos. O Oriente M\u00e9dio continua dominado pela instabilidade pol\u00edtica, embora haja sinais positivos em alguns mercados. Nenhum mais do que o Ir\u00e3, um mercado que essencialmente estava fora do radar est\u00e1 de repente se tornando um foco para algumas das multinacionais.<\/p>\n

Amis\u00aeAgriGlobe de Kleffmann<\/span>\u00a0<\/a><\/span>banco de dados de pesquisas com fazendeiros e informa\u00e7\u00f5es sobre uso de produtos impulsiona muitas das an\u00e1lises de alto n\u00edvel da empresa. Agora em seu terceiro ano e hospedado na plataforma de software da empresa Kleffmann4you, o banco de dados segmenta o uso de produtos por geografia, tipos de culturas, ingredientes ativos e variedades de sementes.<\/p>\n

Visita com os Drs. Bob Kleffmann e Nomman Ahmed no Cimeira Global de Com\u00e9rcio AgriBusiness<\/a> <\/span>De 17 a 19 de agosto em Orlando, Fl\u00f3rida, EUA, quando Fairclough apresentar\u00e1 as \u201cTend\u00eancias Globais do Mercado de Prote\u00e7\u00e3o de Cultivos\u201d na manh\u00e3 de 18 de agosto.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Em termos nominais, o mercado global de produtos qu\u00edmicos para prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos caiu para $54,6 bilh\u00f5es no ano-safra de 2015, conforme medido\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":57319,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[25,4,26,28,22,929,29,18,19,20,5,932,23,926,21],"tags":[54,561],"class_list":["post-57309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-africa-middle-east","category-agrochemicals","category-americas","category-asia","category-biopesticides","category-biostimulants","category-europe","category-fungicides","category-herbicides","category-insecticides","category-markets","category-micronutrients","category-npk","category-plant-health","category-seeds-traits","tag-featured-home","tag-kleffmann-group"],"yoast_head":"\n2015 Agrichemical Sales Fall To $54.6 Billion - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In nominal terms the global market for crop protection chemicals declined to $54.6 billion in harvest year 2015 as measured at ex-company level. 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