{"id":57683,"date":"2016-04-30T01:14:23","date_gmt":"2016-04-30T05:14:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=57683"},"modified":"2019-09-25T06:31:20","modified_gmt":"2019-09-25T10:31:20","slug":"chinas-6-billion-market-continues-its-volume-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/chinas-6-billion-market-continues-its-volume-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"O mercado chin\u00eas de $6 bilh\u00f5es continua seu crescimento de volume"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Nomman

O Dr. Nomman Ahmed \u00e9 o gerente regional da \u00c1sia\/Pac\u00edfico<\/p><\/div>\n

O mercado chin\u00eas ficou est\u00e1vel no ano-safra de 2015 em compara\u00e7\u00e3o ao ano anterior, de acordo com dados recentes de n\u00edvel de fazendeiro coletados na China por pesquisas de painel da Kleffmann. Esta an\u00e1lise tamb\u00e9m \u00e9 gerada pela an\u00e1lise do mercado usando dados da amis AgriGlobe, que inclui uma infinidade de fontes, incluindo estudos de distribuidores (amis Trend), entrevistas com especialistas e dados de associa\u00e7\u00f5es nacionais.<\/p>\n

Mas o desempenho est\u00e1vel da China em termos de d\u00f3lar americano \u00e9 mais positivo do que a maioria dos mercados, considerando o decl\u00ednio m\u00e9dio de 10% do resto do mundo. O consumo de produtos de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos (CPP) da China aumentou, mas, como em grande parte do mundo, a fraqueza do pre\u00e7o do CPP e a desvaloriza\u00e7\u00e3o da moeda local retiraram valor do mercado e da ind\u00fastria.<\/p>\n

Os agricultores na China aplicaram volumes ligeiramente maiores de produtos de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos em 2015, mas o crescimento do valor foi consumido por uma queda do RMB. A ind\u00fastria n\u00e3o sentiu esse crescimento marginal devido aos estoques mais altos mais abaixo na cadeia. 2013 e 2014 foram anos fant\u00e1sticos para o mercado global e chin\u00eas de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos, e a perspectiva geral foi positiva. Assim \u2014 na expectativa de um desempenho de mercado semelhante no ano que vem e pre\u00e7os ligeiramente maiores e crescentes para o material t\u00e9cnico essencial no final de 2014 \u2014 um pequeno estoque come\u00e7ou na China, especialmente na ponta final da cadeia de distribui\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

Em 2015, acredita-se que os estoques do CPP foram reduzidos em 5% para 15% em compara\u00e7\u00e3o a 2014, e o estoque foi mais pronunciado no n\u00edvel do varejista.
\nNo geral, o valor de mercado de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos aumentou 0,2% em compara\u00e7\u00e3o ao ano passado para $6,09 bilh\u00f5es no n\u00edvel ex-fabricante em meio aos menores n\u00edveis de importa\u00e7\u00f5es e exporta\u00e7\u00f5es em v\u00e1rios anos. Isso faz da China o terceiro maior mercado de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos do mundo e o maior mercado na regi\u00e3o da \u00c1sia\/Pac\u00edfico.\"kleffmann_china_by_segment\"<\/p>\n

Desenvolvimentos de mercado<\/strong>
\nO mercado global de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos atingiu um crescimento m\u00e9dio de 9,8% entre 2010 e 2014. No mesmo per\u00edodo, o mercado chin\u00eas de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos cresceu 16%. Em 2015, pela primeira vez desde 2010, o mercado chin\u00eas de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos n\u00e3o cresceu em termos nominais. Se a China quiser continuar crescendo, precisa administrar os muitos desafios que sua ind\u00fastria enfrenta.<\/p>\n

Durante os \u00faltimos 20 anos, muitas empresas chinesas menores surfaram na onda do sucesso geral do mercado e ganharam uma fatia do bolo para si. A ind\u00fastria chinesa de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos aparentemente n\u00e3o podia fazer nada errado. Preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es ambientais e regulamenta\u00e7\u00f5es internacionais n\u00e3o eram aplicadas na medida em que s\u00e3o hoje, e a demanda internacional era continuamente alta. Muitas empresas menores se beneficiaram desse boom \u2014 elas podiam entrar e ganhar sua parte por um ou dois anos e decidir sair antes de mergulhar na fabrica\u00e7\u00e3o do pr\u00f3ximo produto qu\u00edmico mais badalado que est\u00e1 saindo da patente.<\/p>\n

Nos \u00faltimos anos, a consolida\u00e7\u00e3o da ind\u00fastria e requisitos ambientais mais rigorosos for\u00e7aram a sa\u00edda de v\u00e1rios participantes menores do mercado. Entre as muitas empresas de pequeno e m\u00e9dio porte, algumas corpora\u00e7\u00f5es maiores surgiram e s\u00e3o concorrentes dignas da lideran\u00e7a do mercado global. ChemChina e Sinochem s\u00e3o apenas duas dessas corpora\u00e7\u00f5es maiores.
\nA amplamente discutida aquisi\u00e7\u00e3o da Syngenta pela estatal ChemChina impactar\u00e1 grandemente o mercado global de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos \u2014 mas e os impactos na China?<\/p>\n

Motoristas de demanda<\/strong>
\nCom a pol\u00edtica de dois filhos recentemente anunciada em vigor e com a necessidade geral de alimentar sua popula\u00e7\u00e3o, a autossufici\u00eancia alimentar \u00e9 uma quest\u00e3o importante que o pa\u00eds precisa abordar mais cedo do que tarde. Isso parece ainda mais importante em tempos de desacelera\u00e7\u00e3o econ\u00f4mica e possibilidade de recess\u00e3o de balan\u00e7o.<\/p>\n

\"kleffman_china_ais\"Considerando que precisa produzir alimentos suficientes para a popula\u00e7\u00e3o cada vez maior sem depender muito de importa\u00e7\u00f5es \u2014 a posi\u00e7\u00e3o da China sobre alimentos geneticamente modificados tem sido um tanto inconclusiva \u00e0s vezes. O eco geral em p\u00fablico \u00e9 contra os OGMs, no entanto, a decis\u00e3o de que essa tecnologia poderia ser amplamente adotada na China parece estar pr\u00f3xima, principalmente para arroz e milho. Se o acordo da ChemChina com a Syngenta for aprovado, a engenharia gen\u00e9tica avan\u00e7ada poder\u00e1 se tornar mais prontamente dispon\u00edvel na China, o que abriria caminho para o cultivo dom\u00e9stico de alimentos geneticamente modificados. Isso permitiria que a empresa fornecesse solu\u00e7\u00f5es integradas ao agricultor \u2014 sementes, prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos e suporte agron\u00f4mico \u2014 de um \u00fanico local. Isso \u00e9 algo que j\u00e1 gerou repercuss\u00f5es contra o acordo tanto internamente quanto no exterior.<\/p>\n

Uma mega corpora\u00e7\u00e3o \u201cChemChina-Adama-Syngenta\u201d poderia levar a uma situa\u00e7\u00e3o de mercado monopolista, onde ganhar fatias de mercado para players estrangeiros, bem como outros players nacionais, se tornaria ainda mais dif\u00edcil do que no passado. A ChemChina e a Syngenta j\u00e1 indicaram que ter a Adama na mistura n\u00e3o levaria a sobreposi\u00e7\u00f5es, pois a inten\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 ter ofertas nos segmentos gen\u00e9rico e propriet\u00e1rio. A outra preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o que \u00e9 generalizada domesticamente \u00e9 o envolvimento do \u201cestado\u201d, o que poderia levar a um comportamento n\u00e3o comercial e dar uma vantagem competitiva injusta \u00e0 nova mega corpora\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

O crescimento geral da China perdeu algum \u00edmpeto desde 2011, mas sua fome por commodities continua a crescer desproporcionalmente \u00e0 m\u00e9dia global. O crescimento da China est\u00e1 mudando cada vez mais de um crescimento impulsionado pela ind\u00fastria para um crescimento mais impulsionado pelo consumo. A crescente demanda por alimentos da crescente popula\u00e7\u00e3o da China, especialmente por carne, cria oportunidade suficiente para a ind\u00fastria agr\u00edcola continuar crescendo e provavelmente tamb\u00e9m conter\u00e1 a queda do pre\u00e7o das commodities. Ao mesmo tempo, a \u00c1sia emergente deve contribuir mais fortemente para o crescimento regional geral, o que por si s\u00f3 geraria uma demanda por commodities grande o suficiente para preencher o vazio deixado pela China.\"kleffman_china_markets\"<\/p>\n

No que diz respeito ao mercado de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos, pode-se esperar uma maior redu\u00e7\u00e3o de estoques para o ano de 2016, o que pode resultar em um leve crescimento do mercado em 2017, desde que os n\u00edveis de consumo permane\u00e7am est\u00e1veis.<\/p>\n

Dr. Nomman Ahmed \u00e9 o gerente regional da \u00c1sia\/Pac\u00edfico para pesquisa de mercado de n\u00edvel de produtor sindicalizado em prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos e sementes no Kleffmann Group. Ele tamb\u00e9m \u00e9 analista s\u00eanior da ala de consultoria e informa\u00e7\u00f5es sobre tend\u00eancias de mercado de insumos agr\u00edcolas da Kleffmann \u2014 amis AgriGlobe. Suas publica\u00e7\u00f5es revisadas por pares abordam economia agr\u00edcola, economia de mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas e agroqu\u00edmicos. Ele \u00e9 um colaborador regular do <\/em>Agroneg\u00f3cio Global e pode ser contatado em <\/em>Nomman.Ahmed@kleffmann.com<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O mercado chin\u00eas ficou est\u00e1vel no ano de colheita de 2015 em compara\u00e7\u00e3o ao ano anterior, de acordo com dados recentes coletados por agricultores\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":57693,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,28,18,19,20,5],"tags":[344,54,576,121],"class_list":["post-57683","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-asia","category-fungicides","category-herbicides","category-insecticides","category-markets","tag-chemchina","tag-featured-home","tag-sinochem","tag-syngenta"],"yoast_head":"\nChina\u2019s $6-Billion Market Continues its Volume Growth - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Chinese Market was flat in harvest year 2015 compared to the previous year, according to recent farmer-level data 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