{"id":58043,"date":"2016-06-21T12:28:14","date_gmt":"2016-06-21T16:28:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=58043"},"modified":"2019-09-25T06:31:22","modified_gmt":"2019-09-25T10:31:22","slug":"sales-volumes-rise-despite-global-value-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/events\/trade-summit\/sales-volumes-rise-despite-global-value-decline\/","title":{"rendered":"Volumes de vendas aumentam apesar do decl\u00ednio do valor global"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"TS-lead-in\"<\/a>No\u00a0Cimeira Global de Com\u00e9rcio AgriBusiness<\/a> em Las Vegas no ano passado, Kleffmann relatou um mercado de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos de $60,5 bilh\u00f5es para o ano da colheita de 2014. Isso representou um aumento de cerca de 6% em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com o valor de $57,2 bilh\u00f5es no ano da colheita de 2013. Embora modesto \u2014 em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com o crescimento de quase dois d\u00edgitos registrado em 2013 em compara\u00e7\u00e3o a 2012 \u2014 6% representou um crescimento muito invej\u00e1vel para muitos padr\u00f5es da ind\u00fastria. Conforme comentado na \u00e9poca, olhando para os pr\u00f3ximos cinco anos, veremos esse per\u00edodo como um per\u00edodo de expans\u00e3o para as empresas de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos.<\/p>\n

Agora, um ano depois, a ind\u00fastria est\u00e1 olhando para tr\u00e1s com \u00f3culos cor-de-rosa, para os bons e velhos tempos, e se perguntando quando esse mercado c\u00edclico de pesticidas se recuperar\u00e1 novamente.<\/p>\n

Que 2015 foi um ano dif\u00edcil para a ind\u00fastria \u00e9 inquestion\u00e1vel. Em termos nominais, o mercado global de produtos qu\u00edmicos para prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos caiu em cerca de 9,8% para $54,6 bilh\u00f5es, medido no n\u00edvel ex-empresa. 2015 tamb\u00e9m foi o primeiro ano em que o mercado caiu nesta d\u00e9cada e encerrou um per\u00edodo de cinco anos de crescimento. N\u00e3o \u00e9, no entanto, a \u00fanica ind\u00fastria relacionada \u00e0 agricultura que sofreu; um decl\u00ednio semelhante tamb\u00e9m foi sentido na ind\u00fastria de sementes, e as vendas de novos tratores \u2014 um bom bar\u00f4metro da sa\u00fade da economia agr\u00edcola geral \u2014 ca\u00edram em cerca de 15% em muitos mercados importantes. Em 2015, pela primeira vez, a \u00e1rea global plantada de culturas biotecnol\u00f3gicas tamb\u00e9m caiu fracionariamente e, embora sem d\u00favida volte a crescer no futuro, isso p\u00f5e fim a quase 20 anos de crescimento cont\u00ednuo.<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m do impacto de fatores externos, como ventos contr\u00e1rios da moeda e instabilidade do mercado emergente, pre\u00e7os significativamente mais baixos de commodities, disponibilidade de cr\u00e9dito, padr\u00f5es clim\u00e1ticos vari\u00e1veis, incluindo o impacto do atual fen\u00f4meno clim\u00e1tico El Ni\u00f1o, tamb\u00e9m contribu\u00edram para essa desacelera\u00e7\u00e3o. N\u00e3o t\u00e3o bem documentado \u00e9 o efeito dos padr\u00f5es de compra dos agricultores rebaixando as compras para alternativas mais baratas fora de patente, \u00e0 medida que a press\u00e3o sobre as rendas agr\u00edcolas aumenta. Sob tais condi\u00e7\u00f5es econ\u00f4micas, n\u00e3o \u00e9 surpresa que o mercado de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos tenha diminu\u00eddo 10%; mas, como sempre, o diabo est\u00e1 nos detalhes. Se retirarmos o efeito do movimento da moeda e expressarmos o mercado em moeda constante (2014), ent\u00e3o, de fato, o inverso \u00e9 verdadeiro, e o mercado viu um aumento de perto de 5%; ou olhando de outra forma, o volume aumentou em 5%.<\/p>\n

Resumir os \u201cprincipais impulsionadores\u201d desta ind\u00fastria de $55 bilh\u00f5es pode ser assustador.<\/p>\n

Se voc\u00ea levar em conta a din\u00e2mica de v\u00e1rias centenas de empresas, todas com estrat\u00e9gias diferentes, ent\u00e3o perto de 100 pa\u00edses com vendas de pesticidas acima de $50 milh\u00f5es, perto de 1.000 ingredientes qu\u00edmicos ativos diferentes e, na \u00faltima contagem, cerca de 10.000 marcas \u00fanicas em uma base global, ent\u00e3o isso n\u00e3o \u00e9 nada surpreendente. Em Orlando, consolidaremos esses principais impulsionadores naqueles que s\u00e3o
\nseja relacionado \u00e0 ind\u00fastria, mercado, regulamenta\u00e7\u00e3o ou tecnologia.<\/p>\n

\"TS-lead-in_2\"Um bom exemplo de um driver relacionado \u00e0 ind\u00fastria est\u00e1 acontecendo bem na frente dos nossos olhos enquanto falamos. \u00c0 luz das tr\u00eas fus\u00f5es propostas dentro das seis maiores empresas, ent\u00e3o novas oportunidades surgir\u00e3o para as empresas de segundo e terceiro n\u00edveis. Mega fus\u00f5es no passado n\u00e3o resultaram em 1+1 igual a 2, e aquelas empresas menores com um olho para os detalhes ser\u00e3o capazes de captar oportunidades de queda, direta ou indiretamente. Tamb\u00e9m est\u00e1 claro que em 2016 estamos no auge de produtos perdendo sua prote\u00e7\u00e3o de patente. Nunca antes (e provavelmente nunca mais) haver\u00e1 tantos ingredientes ativos saindo de patente. A partir daqui, o n\u00famero para escolher diminui, pois a prote\u00e7\u00e3o de patente de 17 anos (em m\u00e9dia) agora coincide com o pico de introdu\u00e7\u00f5es de novos ingredientes ativos h\u00e1 17 anos. Todos est\u00e3o repentinamente interessados em mol\u00e9culas com mais de 20 anos, tanto gen\u00e9ricos quanto multinacionais.<\/p>\n

Os drivers relacionados ao mercado permanecem muito relacionados ao decl\u00ednio dos pre\u00e7os das commodities e ao impacto direto no gasto do produtor por hectare. O que todos querem saber \u00e9 quando esse decl\u00ednio ser\u00e1 revertido, dado que todos os fundamentos para melhoria est\u00e3o em vigor. Alguma melhoria recente nos pre\u00e7os das commodities em milho e arroz no momento em que este artigo foi escrito pode ser revertida em breve.<\/p>\n

Se olharmos para os drivers relacionados \u00e0 regulamenta\u00e7\u00e3o e o impacto no mercado, ent\u00e3o a saga cont\u00ednua da recusa da UE em registrar novamente o glifosato (mesmo em car\u00e1ter provis\u00f3rio; novamente no momento da reda\u00e7\u00e3o) \u00e9 significativa. Al\u00e9m do glifosato, muitas mol\u00e9culas-chave tamb\u00e9m est\u00e3o enfrentando restri\u00e7\u00f5es com base em poss\u00edveis problemas de interrup\u00e7\u00e3o end\u00f3crina ou impacto ambiental. A proibi\u00e7\u00e3o do AS paraquat este ano na China \u00e9 outro exemplo de muitos pa\u00edses removendo produtos mais antigos do mercado, mesmo onde n\u00e3o existe nenhuma alternativa realmente adequada.<\/p>\n

Mesmo com o decl\u00ednio de novos ingredientes ativos, a ind\u00fastria continua impulsionada pela tecnologia, e a mudan\u00e7a tecnol\u00f3gica continua a moldar a ind\u00fastria. Em vez de novas mol\u00e9culas, no entanto, o novo campo de batalha est\u00e1 na tecnologia de formula\u00e7\u00e3o e \u00e9 nessa \u00e1rea que muitas das empresas de segundo e terceiro escal\u00e3o est\u00e3o se destacando.<\/p>\n

A palestra em Orlando discutir\u00e1 os fatores listados acima, entre outros; que, se considerarmos os primeiros seis meses de 2016, mudar\u00e3o novamente entre 17 e 19 de agosto.<\/p>\n

Nota do autor: A an\u00e1lise de Kleffmann \u00e9 baseada em dados coletados de pesquisas com agricultores, entrevistas com distribuidores em mercados emergentes, estudos de tend\u00eancias de mercado propriet\u00e1rios, especialistas no assunto e informa\u00e7\u00f5es de c\u00f3digo aberto. As pesquisas com agricultores continuam a fornecer a maior parte dos dados para nossa an\u00e1lise, embora nosso programa de estudos de tend\u00eancias esteja se tornando mais significativo. Os estudos de tend\u00eancias permitem um exame abrangente de muitos mercados menores, mas de r\u00e1pido crescimento, particularmente aqueles na \u00c1frica. Muitos pa\u00edses de estudo de tend\u00eancias se tornar\u00e3o o pr\u00f3ximo grupo de pa\u00edses de pesquisas com agricultores, \u00e0 medida que as empresas entenderem melhor seu potencial de crescimento.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

No AgriBusiness Global Trade Summit em Las Vegas no ano passado, Kleffmann relatou um mercado de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos de $60,5 bilh\u00f5es para o ano da colheita\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":58044,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1218,6],"tags":[54,561],"class_list":["post-58043","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-events","category-trade-summit","tag-featured-home","tag-kleffmann-group"],"yoast_head":"\nSales Volumes Rise Despite Global Value Decline - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"At the\u00a0AgriBusiness Global\u00a0Trade Summit in Las Vegas last year, Kleffmann reported on a $60.5-billion crop protection market for harvest year 2014. 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