{"id":58328,"date":"2016-08-19T10:56:56","date_gmt":"2016-08-19T14:56:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=58328"},"modified":"2019-09-25T06:31:25","modified_gmt":"2019-09-25T10:31:25","slug":"live-from-the-trade-summit-more-generics-more-mergers-to-follow-a-tough-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/live-from-the-trade-summit-more-generics-more-mergers-to-follow-a-tough-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Ao vivo da C\u00fapula do Com\u00e9rcio: Mais gen\u00e9ricos, mais fus\u00f5es ap\u00f3s um ano dif\u00edcil"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"

\u201cTodos querem estar no setor (emergente sem patentes), mas temos que evitar arrastar as coisas de patentes imediatamente para o status de commodities, com todos fazendo isso e sem diferencia\u00e7\u00e3o de produto.\u201d \u2013Dr. Bob Fairclough<\/p><\/div>\n

O mercado global de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos caiu 9,8% para $55,6 bilh\u00f5es em 2015, o primeiro decl\u00ednio nos \u00faltimos cinco anos, atingido pela for\u00e7a do d\u00f3lar americano e pelos baixos pre\u00e7os das commodities, mas os fundamentos est\u00e3o prontos para uma vis\u00e3o mais otimista dos pr\u00f3ximos anos, disse o Dr. Bob Fairclough aos participantes do evento. Agroneg\u00f3cio Global<\/em> C\u00fapula Comercial em Orlando, Fl\u00f3rida, EUA, em 18 de agosto.<\/p>\n

Fairclough destacou que se o mercado fosse analisado em termos de euro, \u00e1rea tratada e volume, ele mostrou crescimento no ano passado. Globalmente, nos \u00faltimos seis anos, o mercado de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos cresceu 4,6% por ano, mesmo contabilizando a queda do ano passado.<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m disso, os Estados Unidos recuperaram sua posi\u00e7\u00e3o como o mercado de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos n\u00ba 1 do mundo, superando ligeiramente o Brasil em 2015, com pouco mais de $8 bilh\u00f5es em vendas no n\u00edvel ex-fabricante. A China ficou em terceiro lugar em vendas, com cerca de $6 bilh\u00f5es em vendas no n\u00edvel ex-fabricante.<\/p>\n

Os herbicidas foram os mais afetados no ano passado, enquanto os fungicidas superaram todos os outros segmentos de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos no ano passado \u2014 uma tend\u00eancia que Fairclough v\u00ea continuar. \u201c\u00c0 medida que as economias emergentes ficam cada vez mais ricas, h\u00e1 uma mudan\u00e7a dos inseticidas, que s\u00e3o necess\u00e1rios, para os fungicidas, que fornecem qualidade extra. Veremos o setor de fungicidas crescendo mais nos pr\u00f3ximos anos\u201d, disse ele.<\/p>\n

Nenhuma regi\u00e3o global foi poupada dos desafios da ind\u00fastria agroqu\u00edmica no ano passado, mas o mercado europeu foi o mais atingido em termos de d\u00f3lares, particularmente a Alemanha. Fairclough nomeou o Ir\u00e3 como o pa\u00eds com pior desempenho em 2015, principalmente devido \u00e0 desvaloriza\u00e7\u00e3o da moeda local, mas ele espera que ele reverta o curso para um mercado em crescimento olhando para o futuro. Gana, Finl\u00e2ndia, Gr\u00e9cia, Arg\u00e9lia, Cro\u00e1cia, Nova Zel\u00e2ndia, Nicar\u00e1gua, Jap\u00e3o e B\u00e9lgica tamb\u00e9m tiveram desempenho ruim. Fairclough v\u00ea o Jap\u00e3o declinando ano a ano, provavelmente pelos pr\u00f3ximos cinco anos, \u00e0 medida que o governo abre o mercado para gen\u00e9ricos e as tarifas s\u00e3o reduzidas sobre o arroz.<\/p>\n

Embora todas as regi\u00f5es globais tenham registrado decl\u00ednios no ano passado, houve destaques. Os pa\u00edses que lideraram o crescimento: Rom\u00eania \u2014 que registrou ganhos de dois d\u00edgitos nos \u00faltimos seis anos \u2014 Costa Rica, Uruguai, Indon\u00e9sia, Nig\u00e9ria, Paraguai, Honduras, Argentina, Ucr\u00e2nia e Vietn\u00e3.<\/p>\n

MAIS GEN\u00c9RICOS, MAIS FUS\u00d5ES<\/strong><\/p>\n

Produtos fora de patente atualmente ocupam 77,5% do mercado total de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos, em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com 22,5% para produtos patenteados. \u201c(A propor\u00e7\u00e3o) importa em termos de tamanho da ind\u00fastria e como a ind\u00fastria ser\u00e1 impulsionada\u201d, disse Fairclough. A porcentagem de produtos fora de patente aumentar\u00e1 em 1% para 2% por ano nos pr\u00f3ximos quatro a cinco anos.<\/p>\n

A crise da agrochem prejudicou mais as empresas de gen\u00e9ricos do que as multinacionais, mas n\u00e3o se pode ignorar que as maiores empresas de gen\u00e9ricos s\u00e3o as multinacionais \u2014 o maior produto da Dow \u00e9 o glifosato, e a Syngenta, por defini\u00e7\u00e3o, \u00e9 a maior empresa de gen\u00e9ricos. \u201cOs produtos mais antigos foram mais impactados do que os produtos propriet\u00e1rios, no entanto, n\u00e3o acho que isso v\u00e1 mudar a din\u00e2mica a longo prazo.\u201d<\/p>\n

No setor fora de patente, um quilo de ingrediente ativo tem em m\u00e9dia cerca de $15. Produtos patenteados est\u00e3o em n\u00edtido contraste, comandando uma m\u00e9dia de $193 por quilo.<\/p>\n

Produtos que sair\u00e3o de patente nos pr\u00f3ximos cinco anos comandam cerca de 14% a 15% do mercado global, ou cerca de $8 bilh\u00f5es a $9 bilh\u00f5es de ingrediente ativo com um pre\u00e7o m\u00e9dio de $181 por quilo, de acordo com Fairclough. \u201cTodo mundo quer estar no setor (emergente fora de patente), mas temos que evitar arrastar as coisas de patentes imediatamente para o status de commodities, com todo mundo fazendo isso e sem diferencia\u00e7\u00e3o de produto\u201d, disse Fairclough. \u201cEstamos nos tornando mais gen\u00e9ricos e menos propriet\u00e1rios, n\u00e3o h\u00e1 d\u00favida sobre isso. Isso est\u00e1 tirando valor do mercado, e ser\u00e1 dif\u00edcil ver o aumento em valor al\u00e9m do que vemos em termos de volume.\u201d<\/p>\n

Neste momento, h\u00e1 o maior n\u00famero de IAs com patentes expiradas do que haver\u00e1 pelos pr\u00f3ximos 15 anos.<\/p>\n

Outro fator a considerar \u00e9 a estrutura mut\u00e1vel da ind\u00fastria. As Big 6 agora capturam 63% do total de vendas da ind\u00fastria. Fairclough disse: \u201c\u00c9 uma posi\u00e7\u00e3o relativamente saud\u00e1vel, esse cachorro com uma cauda muito longa. Ele impulsiona a inova\u00e7\u00e3o e mant\u00e9m todo o sistema de produtos se movendo da empresa A para a empresa B em uma situa\u00e7\u00e3o saud\u00e1vel.\u201d Mas, a ind\u00fastria est\u00e1 olhando para tr\u00eas potenciais fus\u00f5es no pr\u00f3ximo ano: Bayer e Monsanto, Syngenta e Adama, e Dow AgroSciences e DuPont.<\/p>\n

Ele apontou para a signific\u00e2ncia da grande lacuna que existiria nas vendas entre as principais entidades fundidas e as pr\u00f3ximas maiores empresas, sendo o \u00faltimo grupo liderado pela BASF. Fairclough diz que n\u00e3o h\u00e1 d\u00favida de que haver\u00e1 mais fus\u00f5es, primeiramente entre as empresas chinesas.<\/p>\n

\u201cUma fus\u00e3o em si \u00e9 interessante, mas tamb\u00e9m tem impacto na din\u00e2mica da ind\u00fastria, no fluxo de ingredientes ativos de patenteados para gen\u00e9ricos, quem \u00e9 amigo de quem e no impacto no tamanho da ind\u00fastria daqui para frente\u201d, disse ele.<\/p>\n

\u00c0 medida que a ind\u00fastria se consolida e menos IAs perdem patente, as multinacionais v\u00e3o se concentrar cada vez mais em produtos qu\u00edmicos mais antigos, incluindo 2,4-D, dicamba e paraquate. Fairclough comparou isso a uma panela fervente, onde um n\u00famero crescente de empresas desafiadas est\u00e1 lidando com um n\u00famero decrescente de IAs.<\/p>\n

Do lado positivo, \u201cse voc\u00ea est\u00e1 se movendo agora, se voc\u00ea est\u00e1 olhando para os bons ingredientes ativos, se voc\u00ea est\u00e1 diferenciando seus produtos de outras empresas, as oportunidades est\u00e3o muito presentes\u201d.<\/p>\n

Um sinal encorajador para o futuro dos insumos agr\u00edcolas, al\u00e9m disso, \u00e9 a crescente demanda por carne su\u00edna e de aves, impulsionada pela classe m\u00e9dia explosiva da \u00c1sia. \u201c\u00c9 surpreendente ver (a persist\u00eancia de) pre\u00e7os baixos de commodities quando todos os fundamentos est\u00e3o em vigor. Com certeza, eles v\u00e3o subir novamente, \u00e9 s\u00f3 uma quest\u00e3o de quando.\u201d<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O mercado global de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos caiu 9,8% para $55,6 bilh\u00f5es em 2015, o primeiro decl\u00ednio nos \u00faltimos cinco anos,\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":72,"featured_media":58044,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[25,4,26,28,29,6],"tags":[114,209,554,170,135,121,956],"class_list":["post-58328","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-africa-middle-east","category-agrochemicals","category-americas","category-asia","category-europe","category-trade-summit","tag-basf","tag-dupont","tag-featured","tag-glyphosate","tag-monsanto","tag-syngenta","tag-trade-summit"],"yoast_head":"\nLive From the Trade Summit: More Generics, More Mergers to Follow a Tough Year - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The global crop protection market fell 9.8% to $55.6 billion in 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