{"id":59051,"date":"2016-12-30T10:33:12","date_gmt":"2016-12-30T15:33:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=59051"},"modified":"2019-09-25T06:31:35","modified_gmt":"2019-09-25T10:31:35","slug":"chinese-cp-market-saw-negative-growth-in-2016-where-is-the-market-headed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/chinese-cp-market-saw-negative-growth-in-2016-where-is-the-market-headed\/","title":{"rendered":"O mercado chin\u00eas de CP teve crescimento negativo em 2016 \u2014 para onde o mercado est\u00e1 indo?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pela primeira vez em anos, o mercado chin\u00eas de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos (CP) deve apresentar crescimento negativo em 2016. Em 2015, o crescimento positivo do volume compensou a perda geral de valor. Como resultado, o mercado permaneceu est\u00e1vel com um ligeiro crescimento de cerca de 1,5% ano a ano. O carregamento de canal por v\u00e1rios anos, em vista do crescimento positivo do mercado por um per\u00edodo cont\u00ednuo, levou a estoques excedentes que foram parcialmente consumidos em 2015 e 2016.<\/p>\n

Os produtores na China seguiram uma abordagem bastante cautelosa com suas compras de agroqu\u00edmicos como resultado da press\u00e3o sobre suas rendas exercida pelos pre\u00e7os continuamente baixos das commodities para produtos agr\u00edcolas essenciais. Embora os movimentos globais de pre\u00e7os s\u00f3 fa\u00e7am a transi\u00e7\u00e3o lentamente para mercados de um \u00fanico pa\u00eds, os pre\u00e7os dom\u00e9sticos ao produtor na China seguiram a tend\u00eancia geral. Isso, combinado com \u00edndices de estoque para uso mais altos do que o normal para commodities essenciais, como milho e arroz, criou d\u00favidas adicionais nas mentes dos produtores, levando a uma redu\u00e7\u00e3o de estoque mais lenta nos estoques mais abaixo na cadeia de varejo. Consequentemente, essa "recess\u00e3o" de demanda foi repassada a montante para os outros elos da cadeia de distribui\u00e7\u00e3o, levando ao desempenho negativo dos principais participantes da ind\u00fastria em todos os n\u00edveis.<\/p>\n

Em m\u00e9dia, no primeiro semestre de 2016 \u2014 comparando os n\u00fameros de vendas da ind\u00fastria com 2015 para o mesmo per\u00edodo \u2014 o crescimento m\u00e9dio dos principais players multinacionais do mercado agchem ficou em -6,86%. Os players emergentes e de n\u00edvel 2, como a FMC, alcan\u00e7aram n\u00fameros de crescimento de +7,86% em contraste.<\/p>\n

\"Source:

Fonte: Kleffmann Group<\/p><\/div>\n

Dito isso, \u00e9 preciso considerar que a contribui\u00e7\u00e3o geral do faturamento do mercado global das 6 maiores empresas (no momento) \u00e9 de aproximadamente 63% \u2014 um crescimento negativo de 6-7% para esse grupo tem efeitos claramente retumbantes no resultado geral do mercado global. O crescimento mais abaixo no n\u00edvel de "n\u00edvel" \u00e9, no entanto, crucial para compensar uma parte significativa do valor de mercado perdido. O mesmo \u00e9 verdade para a China, onde o crescimento negativo na ind\u00fastria geral, especialmente impulsionado pela demanda, foi de certa forma compensado por participantes menores do n\u00edvel 3 com um portf\u00f3lio de produtos diversificado.<\/p>\n

Ap\u00f3s o primeiro semestre de 2016, a perspectiva para a China para o resto do ano estava mostrando um crescimento negativo do mercado bem al\u00e9m de -10%. Como as pesquisas de mercado propriet\u00e1rias da Kleffmann com os usu\u00e1rios finais de produtos agchem (produtores) revelam, a situa\u00e7\u00e3o parece um pouco "menos pior" \u2014 com o crescimento negativo do mercado ficando abaixo de -10% em uma compara\u00e7\u00e3o ano a ano.<\/p>\n

Os agricultores trocaram o milho pela soja e, quando poss\u00edvel, optaram por culturas de maior valor, como arroz e vegetais. O uso de agroqu\u00edmicos em culturas de alto valor permaneceu forte e at\u00e9 aumentou ligeiramente \u2014 mostrando maiores gastos\/ha. As multinacionais conseguiram o crescimento nos setores de F&V, com agricultores mais interessados em comprar qualidade do que quantidade. Em outros segmentos de culturas menos intensivos em CP (menos focados em fungicidas e inseticidas) \u2014 os agricultores foram menos seletivos e compraram produtos de CP mais conforme a necessidade. O uso preventivo foi menor do que o normal. O segundo semestre de 2016 "melhor do que o esperado" \u2014 foi devido ao efeito impulsionado pelo valor dos pre\u00e7os mais altos para os principais ingredientes ativos comoditizados (por exemplo, imidacloprida, glifosato e 2,4-D \u2014 para citar alguns), bem como \u00e0 demanda aumentando lentamente.
\nResta saber se os aumentos de pre\u00e7o s\u00e3o tempor\u00e1rios e apenas um resultado de pre\u00e7os de energia f\u00f3ssil sazonalmente mais altos na China. A pol\u00edtica ambiental cada vez mais rigorosa da China \u00e9 certamente outro impulsionador por tr\u00e1s dos recentes picos de pre\u00e7o para commodities agr\u00edcolas essenciais.<\/p>\n

Os estoques de Agchem est\u00e3o lentamente retornando aos n\u00edveis normais e pode-se esperar que desencadeiem uma ligeira recupera\u00e7\u00e3o do mercado, que deve ser vis\u00edvel no primeiro semestre de 2017. O mercado em termos absolutos, no entanto, est\u00e1 come\u00e7ando de uma base muito mais baixa em 2017 e s\u00f3 conseguir\u00e1 subir de volta aos valores de mercado de 2013 \u2014 ficando abaixo de $6 bilh\u00f5es no n\u00edvel ex-f\u00e1brica, estimado para o ano da colheita e calculado usando a taxa de c\u00e2mbio m\u00e9dia do ano.<\/p>\n

A moeda chinesa est\u00e1 se desvalorizando ainda mais em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao d\u00f3lar, o que tamb\u00e9m pode infligir algum impulso na demanda internacional, ajudando o mercado a se estabilizar novamente por meio de uma retomada das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es. Os tempos tamb\u00e9m parecem ter mudado para os gen\u00e9ricos \u2014 eles precisam ser mais seletivos sobre seu foco, pois nem tudo que \u00e9 colocado no mercado \u00e9 mais um sucesso.<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m disso, as regulamenta\u00e7\u00f5es ambientais e os obst\u00e1culos de registro continuam a exercer press\u00e3o adicional sobre ingredientes ativos comoditizados, tirando produtos estabelecidos dos produtores emergentes.
\nPress\u00e3o sobre segmentos de nicho e produtos como biopesticidas \u2014 que foram vistos por anos como impulsionadores do mercado futuro \u2014 tamb\u00e9m pode ser esperada. Biopesticidas em particular devem ser observados de perto e analisados quanto ao seu sucesso ou n\u00e3o em tempos de queda do mercado.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

O Dr. Bob Fairclough \u00e9 o l\u00edder da equipe da unidade de consultoria e informa\u00e7\u00f5es sobre tend\u00eancias de mercado de insumos agr\u00edcolas do Kleffmann Group, amis AgriGlobe. Ele \u00e9 consultor editorial da <\/em>Agroneg\u00f3cio Global. <\/em>Dr. Nomman Ahmed \u00e9 o gerente regional da \u00c1sia\/Pac\u00edfico para pesquisa de mercado de n\u00edvel de produtor sindicalizado em prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos e sementes no Kleffmann Group. Ele tamb\u00e9m \u00e9 analista s\u00eanior da ala de consultoria e informa\u00e7\u00f5es sobre tend\u00eancias de mercado de insumos agr\u00edcolas da Kleffmann \u2014 amis AgriGlobe. Suas publica\u00e7\u00f5es revisadas por pares abordam economia agr\u00edcola, economia de mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas e agroqu\u00edmicos. Ele \u00e9 um colaborador regular do AgriBusiness Global e pode ser contatado em Nomman.Ahmed@kleffmann.com.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pela primeira vez em anos, o mercado chin\u00eas de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos (PC) dever\u00e1 apresentar crescimento negativo em 2016.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":72,"featured_media":53997,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,28],"tags":[1058,554],"class_list":["post-59051","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-asia","tag-china","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"\nChinese CP Market Saw Negative Growth in 2016 \u2014 Where Is the Market Headed? - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"For the first time in years the Chinese crop protection (CP) market is expected to experience negative growth in 2016.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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