{"id":61006,"date":"2018-03-20T13:58:13","date_gmt":"2018-03-20T17:58:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=61006"},"modified":"2018-03-23T11:00:09","modified_gmt":"2018-03-23T15:00:09","slug":"where-is-chinese-agchem-manufacturing-headed-and-how-should-you-manage-the-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/where-is-chinese-agchem-manufacturing-headed-and-how-should-you-manage-the-risks\/","title":{"rendered":"Para onde est\u00e1 indo a fabrica\u00e7\u00e3o de produtos agr\u00edcolas chineses e como voc\u00ea deve gerenciar os riscos?"},"content":{"rendered":"

An\u00e1lise de Situa\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong><\/p>\n

O inverno de 2017\/18 foi um divisor de \u00e1guas na luta contra a polui\u00e7\u00e3o persistente e cada vez pior pelo governo chin\u00eas. As medidas dr\u00e1sticas sem precedentes tomadas para encerrar a produ\u00e7\u00e3o em uma vasta regi\u00e3o industrial da China levaram a uma grande interrup\u00e7\u00e3o no fornecimento de agroqu\u00edmicos gen\u00e9ricos para os mercados mundiais. Os pre\u00e7os de alguns produtos subiram para mais que o dobro dos pre\u00e7os anteriores ao fechamento. Muitos produtos n\u00e3o estavam dispon\u00edveis ou apenas uma parte da demanda usual de inverno foi atendida.<\/p>\n

Em 2013, fiz um discurso na confer\u00eancia Agrochemex realizada anualmente em Xangai, e o t\u00f3pico era "Fabricantes chineses de agroqu\u00edmicos conquistando e mantendo clientes no exterior: uma abordagem sustent\u00e1vel". Eu pedi aos fabricantes chineses de agroqu\u00edmicos que fossem a jusante na cadeia de suprimentos internacional obtendo seus pr\u00f3prios registros de produtos e colaborando com distribuidores nacionais nos v\u00e1rios mercados-pa\u00edses para evitar depender fortemente apenas das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de produtos t\u00e9cnicos e formulados sem marca. Tamb\u00e9m enfatizei fortemente que a polui\u00e7\u00e3o s\u00e9ria prevalecente na \u00e9poca era uma grande preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o e o status quo era insustent\u00e1vel. Iniciativas proativas lideradas pela ind\u00fastria e medidas dr\u00e1sticas eram necess\u00e1rias. Portanto, recomendei que os fabricantes adotassem padr\u00f5es internacionais em controle de polui\u00e7\u00e3o, bem como tivessem um c\u00f3digo interno de conduta referente a uma abordagem sustent\u00e1vel na produ\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

Nas \u00faltimas duas d\u00e9cadas, tem havido muita conversa sobre a redu\u00e7\u00e3o do n\u00famero de produtores de agroqu\u00edmicos na China como uma das medidas para conter a polui\u00e7\u00e3o, o que levaria a uma ind\u00fastria mais sustent\u00e1vel. J\u00e1 no final da d\u00e9cada de 1990, havia 2.000 plantas de produ\u00e7\u00e3o de agroqu\u00edmicos na China, com cerca de um quarto delas produzindo produtos t\u00e9cnicos. No entanto, em vez da redu\u00e7\u00e3o planejada na produ\u00e7\u00e3o e no n\u00famero de plantas, a \u00faltima d\u00e9cada viu aumentos massivos nas capacidades de produ\u00e7\u00e3o de alguns produtos, como o glifosato. Al\u00e9m disso, muitos gen\u00e9ricos mais novos foram fabricados na China durante esse per\u00edodo.<\/p>\n

Embora, em geral, a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de quintal em vilas e \u00e1reas remotas tenha parado, houve um grande crescimento geral na produ\u00e7\u00e3o e exporta\u00e7\u00e3o de agchem, decorrente de aumentos nos volumes de produ\u00e7\u00e3o de produtos mais antigos e aumentos no n\u00famero de gen\u00e9ricos mais novos produzidos tamb\u00e9m. Para dar uma ideia da extens\u00e3o do crescimento massivo nas exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de agchem da China, observe que valia apenas cerca de $500 milh\u00f5es em 2000 e saltou para $2 bilh\u00f5es 10 anos depois. Em 2017, estima-se que seja um n\u00famero um pouco abaixo de incr\u00edveis $5 bilh\u00f5es!<\/p>\n

At\u00e9 agora, sempre houve um conflito entre a necessidade de prote\u00e7\u00e3o ambiental, o que significa reduzir a produ\u00e7\u00e3o ou ter equipamentos e processos antipolui\u00e7\u00e3o muito mais caros e sofisticados instalados, e gerar empregos para os sete milh\u00f5es de novos graduados a cada ano. Sustentar o crescimento econ\u00f4mico provincial e nacional sempre foi o foco principal. A capacidade do governo em tomar medidas dr\u00e1sticas no inverno passado \u00e9 um sinal de que ele est\u00e1 confiante em ind\u00fastrias n\u00e3o poluentes gerando o crescimento econ\u00f4mico necess\u00e1rio para fornecer os empregos necess\u00e1rios. A \u00faltima d\u00e9cada viu o surgimento e o r\u00e1pido crescimento de empresas de economia digital como Alibaba e Tencent em gigantes corporativos de escala global, ambas atingindo capitaliza\u00e7\u00e3o de mercado de mais de $500 bilh\u00f5es em 2018 na Bolsa de Valores de Nova York!<\/p>\n

Com a nova confian\u00e7a do governo de que o fechamento da produ\u00e7\u00e3o de ind\u00fastrias poluentes n\u00e3o causaria uma convuls\u00e3o social significativa, cinco anos depois de eu ter feito o discurso acima mencionado em Xangai, as medidas dr\u00e1sticas de fechamento da produ\u00e7\u00e3o em muitas plantas durante o \u00faltimo inverno ocorreram. Conforme discutido em meu artigo anterior<\/a>, publicado nesta revista em mar\u00e7o de 2018, as medidas dr\u00e1sticas tiveram um efeito positivo em termos de conten\u00e7\u00e3o da polui\u00e7\u00e3o severa do inverno nas regi\u00f5es mais afetadas da China. No entanto, ainda est\u00e1 muito longe de atender aos padr\u00f5es prescritos pela Organiza\u00e7\u00e3o Mundial da Sa\u00fade.<\/p>\n

Situa\u00e7\u00e3o durante os pr\u00f3ximos cinco a 10 anos<\/strong><\/p>\n

Daqui para frente, podemos esperar que muitas plantas \u2014 mesmo depois de terem se qualificado e obtido as licen\u00e7as necess\u00e1rias para retomar a produ\u00e7\u00e3o durante os per\u00edodos de primavera, ver\u00e3o e outono \u2014 ter\u00e3o que operar com capacidade reduzida durante o pr\u00f3ximo inverno de 2018\/19. Suponho que ser\u00e1 um caso de observar o que a redu\u00e7\u00e3o na produ\u00e7\u00e3o far\u00e1 com os n\u00edveis de polui\u00e7\u00e3o do inverno e, ent\u00e3o, decidir quais medidas apropriadas ser\u00e3o necess\u00e1rias nos anos seguintes.<\/p>\n

No futuro, ao planejar medidas dr\u00e1sticas adicionais, o governo ter\u00e1 que levar em considera\u00e7\u00e3o as perdas e as dores econ\u00f4micas das plantas. Al\u00e9m disso, a interrup\u00e7\u00e3o no fornecimento prejudica a reputa\u00e7\u00e3o da China como fornecedora confi\u00e1vel de produtos para o resto do mundo.<\/p>\n

Dito isto, com o novo e massivo crescimento da economia digital n\u00e3o poluente na \u00faltima d\u00e9cada, e com a Alibaba e a Tencent fornecendo emprego para 50.000 e 40.000 funcion\u00e1rios bem-educados, respectivamente, espera-se que o governo tome medidas mais dr\u00e1sticas contra todas as ind\u00fastrias de manufatura poluentes sem muita hesita\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

O que isso significa \u00e9 que a ind\u00fastria de fabrica\u00e7\u00e3o de agroqu\u00edmicos continuar\u00e1 a enfrentar o tipo de medidas dr\u00e1sticas que vimos no inverno passado. Com a necessidade de melhorar ainda mais a polui\u00e7\u00e3o ambiental para atender aos padr\u00f5es internacionais nos pr\u00f3ximos anos, a interrup\u00e7\u00e3o no fornecimento e os pre\u00e7os mais altos dos produtos certamente ser\u00e3o o novo normal.<\/p>\n

Gerenciando seu risco como fabricante<\/strong><\/p>\n

Conforme discutido no meu artigo recente mencionado acima, os fabricantes chineses de agroqu\u00edmicos ter\u00e3o que considerar seriamente ter uma planta fora da China para gerenciar seus riscos de enfrentar paralisa\u00e7\u00f5es de produ\u00e7\u00e3o durante os per\u00edodos de inverno e isso, apesar de atender aos padr\u00f5es antipolui\u00e7\u00e3o sempre desafiadores. Aqueles que n\u00e3o forem capazes de atender aos padr\u00f5es, sem d\u00favida, enfrentar\u00e3o um fechamento permanente. Somente na prov\u00edncia de Shandong, o fechamento permanente planejado de plantas incapazes de atender aos novos padr\u00f5es de polui\u00e7\u00e3o j\u00e1 come\u00e7ou desde 2017. O objetivo para uma cidade l\u00e1 \u00e9 ter 30% das plantas fechadas permanentemente at\u00e9 2020.<\/p>\n

Citei a \u00cdndia como um bom local potencial para um segundo local de produ\u00e7\u00e3o, j\u00e1 que a \u00cdndia n\u00e3o \u00e9 apenas um grande mercado agchem avaliado em $6 bilh\u00f5es at\u00e9 2020, mas tamb\u00e9m tem uma ind\u00fastria de fabrica\u00e7\u00e3o agchem significativa. Al\u00e9m disso, o impulso do Primeiro Ministro Modi em dire\u00e7\u00e3o ao "Make in India" tornou dif\u00edcil a importa\u00e7\u00e3o de produtos agchem da China e est\u00e1 fornecendo mais necessidade e incentivos para que produtos t\u00e9cnicos sejam feitos na \u00cdndia. Isso precisa ser feito se os chineses quiserem participar mais efetivamente do grande e crescente mercado agchem indiano.<\/p>\n

Se, por diferen\u00e7as culturais e pol\u00edticas, a colabora\u00e7\u00e3o sugerida e necess\u00e1ria entre fabricantes indianos e chineses n\u00e3o puder ocorrer ou ocorrer r\u00e1pido o suficiente, o Sudeste Asi\u00e1tico pode ser um poss\u00edvel local para a segunda planta de produ\u00e7\u00e3o devido \u00e0 sua proximidade com a China. Do ponto de vista do tamanho do mercado e da oportunidade, uma localiza\u00e7\u00e3o na Am\u00e9rica do Sul \u00e9 onde deveria estar, mas a longa dist\u00e2ncia da base \u00e9 uma desvantagem. H\u00e1 muitos jogadores l\u00e1 famintos por colaborar, assim como h\u00e1 na \u00cdndia.<\/p>\n

Gerenciando seu risco como comprador<\/strong><\/p>\n

Com essa nova ordem mundial na fabrica\u00e7\u00e3o de agchem gen\u00e9ricos, como um comprador de produtos agchem gen\u00e9ricos, o passo imediato a ser dado deve ser ter uma segunda ou at\u00e9 terceira planta na China qualificada e registrada. Obviamente, as plantas adicionais precisam estar localizadas em uma regi\u00e3o diferente da primeira fonte registrada. Isso \u00e9 no caso de a interrup\u00e7\u00e3o da produ\u00e7\u00e3o ser confinada a uma determinada regi\u00e3o mais polu\u00edda apenas.<\/p>\n

Devido \u00e0s interrup\u00e7\u00f5es no fornecimento de tempos em tempos, os compradores precisam tomar decis\u00f5es s\u00e1bias em termos de quando comprar e quando n\u00e3o comprar, e quanto comprar, com base nos riscos calculados prevalecentes e no tipo de medidas que podem ser previstas, conforme descrito aqui. Portanto, obter produtos da China se tornou ainda mais complexo em compara\u00e7\u00e3o a quando meu artigo intitulado, \u201c<\/em><\/strong>Por que o sourcing da China \u00e9 t\u00e3o frustrante<\/a>\u201d foi publicado nesta revista em 2013.<\/p>\n

Conclus\u00e3o<\/strong><\/p>\n

Com a nova ordem mundial surgindo na ind\u00fastria chinesa de fabrica\u00e7\u00e3o de agroqu\u00edmicos, meu discurso feito h\u00e1 cinco anos em Xangai sobre a necessidade da ind\u00fastria de fabrica\u00e7\u00e3o de agroqu\u00edmicos de controlar a polui\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 ainda mais relevante hoje. Os fabricantes chineses precisam sair e explorar as oportunidades de ouro mais do que nunca. Desta vez, n\u00e3o \u00e9 apenas uma quest\u00e3o de obter registros de produtos e vender produtos sob suas pr\u00f3prias marcas por meio da colabora\u00e7\u00e3o com distribuidores locais com acesso ao mercado, mas mais sobre ter um segundo local de fabrica\u00e7\u00e3o tamb\u00e9m.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vis\u00e3o exclusiva de CS Liew, Diretor Executivo da Pacific Agriscience Pte Ltd., Cingapura<\/p>","protected":false},"author":86,"featured_media":59818,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,28,19,20],"tags":[1058,554,54,1236,1061],"class_list":["post-61006","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-asia","category-herbicides","category-insecticides","tag-china","tag-featured","tag-featured-home","tag-india","tag-sourcing"],"yoast_head":"\nWhere Is Chinese Agchem Manufacturing Headed and How Should You Manage the Risks? - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Exclusive insight from CS Liew, Managing Director of Pacific Agriscience Pte Ltd., Singapore\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" 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