{"id":64951,"date":"2019-10-08T15:24:05","date_gmt":"2019-10-08T19:24:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=64951"},"modified":"2019-09-11T14:24:58","modified_gmt":"2019-09-11T18:24:58","slug":"global-crop-protection-trends-india-remains-a-market-of-significance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/global-crop-protection-trends-india-remains-a-market-of-significance\/","title":{"rendered":"Tend\u00eancias globais de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos: a \u00cdndia continua sendo um "mercado de import\u00e2ncia""},"content":{"rendered":"

O mercado global de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos em 2018 aumentou a uma taxa de 2,01 TP3T em termos nominais em rela\u00e7\u00e3o a 2017; marginalmente melhor do que os 1,91 TP3T alcan\u00e7ados em 2017 em rela\u00e7\u00e3o a 2016. Assim, o mercado de produtos de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos em 2018, quando medido no n\u00edvel ex-fabricante e usando taxas de c\u00e2mbio m\u00e9dias anuais, chega a US$ $55,25 bilh\u00f5es em 2018, enquanto ficou em US$ $54,15 bilh\u00f5es em 2017.<\/p>\n

Uma taxa de crescimento de 2%, embora n\u00e3o seja de abalar a terra, \u00e9 um marco, pois \u00e9 marginalmente melhor do que o ano anterior de 2017, que, por sua vez, havia cessado o per\u00edodo de decl\u00ednio visto em 2015 e 2016. Este fato, em vez do tamanho absoluto do crescimento, \u00e9 importante em um setor que viu tanta atividade de fus\u00e3o e aquisi\u00e7\u00e3o, pois fornece alguma confian\u00e7a \u00e0 comunidade de investimentos mais ampla. De outra perspectiva, essa confian\u00e7a foi abalada com o lit\u00edgio em andamento contra glifosato nos EUA<\/a> e a remo\u00e7\u00e3o \u201cpoliticamente motivada\u201d da subst\u00e2ncia ativa de outros territ\u00f3rios.<\/p>\n

Em 30 de abril, a Ag\u00eancia de Prote\u00e7\u00e3o Ambiental dos EUA reafirmou a orienta\u00e7\u00e3o anterior, dizendo que glifosato n\u00e3o \u00e9 cancer\u00edgeno<\/a> e n\u00e3o um risco \u00e0 sa\u00fade p\u00fablica. Isso deveria, em teoria, fornecer uma defesa \u201cbala de prata\u201d contra os lit\u00edgios em andamento nos EUA, embora isso possa levar anos. Enquanto isso, a ind\u00fastria precisa \u201cresistir \u00e0 tempestade\u201d, que continuar\u00e1 a se desenvolver e, ao mesmo tempo, apresentar uma \u201cmensagem unificada, forte e positiva\u201d sobre os benef\u00edcios da prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos para a economia global.<\/p>\n

Ao procurar uma primeira mensagem positiva para a ind\u00fastria global de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos, n\u00e3o \u00e9 preciso ir al\u00e9m da \u00cdndia. A \u00cdndia \u00e9 frequentemente relatada como a economia \u201cmundial\u201d de crescimento mais r\u00e1pido. De acordo com a Banco Mundial<\/a>, a economia indiana manter\u00e1 seu robusto crescimento do PIB de 7,5% neste ano fiscal (AF 19\/20) e 7,5% pelos pr\u00f3ximos dois anos fiscais por conta das \u201cpol\u00edticas monet\u00e1rias acomodat\u00edcias\u201d do Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Junto com o RBI, o Governo da \u00cdndia est\u00e1 fortemente focado em atingir seu ambicioso plano de uma economia dos EUA de $5 trilh\u00f5es at\u00e9 2025, com apoio pol\u00edtico positivo e impulsionadores de investimentos. Se alcan\u00e7ado, a \u00cdndia manter\u00e1 a etiqueta como a principal economia emergente de crescimento mais r\u00e1pido do mundo e que permanecer\u00e1 alguns pontos percentuais acima das taxas de crescimento do PIB global desde a crise financeira de 2009 (veja Figura 1<\/a> na apresenta\u00e7\u00e3o de slides acima).<\/p>\n

A mesma din\u00e2mica de crescimento pode ser considerada verdadeira para o mercado de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos na \u00cdndia. Embora a \u00cdndia n\u00e3o tenha sido o mercado de crescimento mais r\u00e1pido nos \u00faltimos cinco anos (essa etiqueta em particular vai para a R\u00fassia), a \u00cdndia continua sendo o mercado de crescimento mais r\u00e1pido de \u201ctamanho significativo\u201d. Isso pode ser melhor visualizado com refer\u00eancia a Figura 2<\/a> e Figura 3<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Enquanto 13o<\/sup> a classifica\u00e7\u00e3o n\u00e3o \u00e9 necessariamente de \u201cprimeiro n\u00edvel\u201d, o tamanho do mercado indiano (como o quinto maior globalmente) se levado em considera\u00e7\u00e3o (Figura 3<\/a>) deixa claro que, assim como na macroeconomia, a \u00cdndia pode ser considerada o \u201cmercado significativo\u201d de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos com crescimento mais r\u00e1pido no mundo.<\/p>\n

A \u00cdndia, como a maioria dos mercados, sofreu um decl\u00ednio em 2009 (como resultado da crise financeira) e depois novamente em 2015, quando, entre outros fatores, ocorreu um decl\u00ednio acentuado nos pre\u00e7os das commodities. A \u00cdndia, no entanto, sofreu menos do que a maioria dos mercados e saiu desse decl\u00ednio de 2015 em 2016 em vez de 2017, uma prova da resili\u00eancia do mercado indiano (Figura 4<\/a>). Em 2018, continuou a crescer, dando uma esperan\u00e7a brilhante de um futuro melhor.<\/p>\n

N\u00e3o h\u00e1 d\u00favidas de que o mercado indiano est\u00e1 crescendo. No entanto, o quanto o mercado est\u00e1 se desenvolvendo \u00e9 uma quest\u00e3o mais discut\u00edvel. Se olharmos para as divis\u00f5es entre os setores entre o ano base de 2008 em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com 2018, o mercado \u00e9 em grande parte da mesma estrutura (Figuras 5<\/a> e 6<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Uma compara\u00e7\u00e3o simples de Figuras 5<\/a> e 6<\/a> mostra que o mercado permaneceu dominado por inseticidas nos \u00faltimos 10 anos ou mais. Se levarmos em conta o impacto de Bt<\/em> algod\u00e3o, reduzindo o mercado de inseticidas nesse per\u00edodo, pode-se facilmente considerar que os inseticidas perderam participa\u00e7\u00e3o de mercado apenas marginalmente, se \u00e9 que perderam, para os outros setores.<\/p>\n

O mesmo \u00e9 verdade se compararmos a import\u00e2ncia relativa dos diferentes grupos de culturas em termos de gastos com pesticidas, como em Figuras 7<\/a> e 8<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Essencialmente, o mercado em 2018 \u00e9 a mesma estrutura que era em 2008, com, de fato, uma aprecia\u00e7\u00e3o na import\u00e2ncia relativa do arroz. Embora n\u00e3o seja necessariamente preocupante, a falta de penetra\u00e7\u00e3o de mercado por outras culturas al\u00e9m do arroz na \u00cdndia precisa ser comparada com outros mercados em desenvolvimento (por exemplo, o aumento da soja no Brasil durante esse per\u00edodo) e o sucesso de outros mercados asi\u00e1ticos em \u201cprogramas de redu\u00e7\u00e3o de arroz\u201d.<\/p>\n

Perspectivas para 2019<\/h2>\n

A agricultura indiana e, por sua vez, o mercado de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos s\u00e3o fortemente dependentes da Mon\u00e7\u00e3o do Sudoeste. Sua chegada e distribui\u00e7\u00e3o espacial na esta\u00e7\u00e3o Kharif (de junho a outubro) decidem em grande parte o destino da produ\u00e7\u00e3o total de gr\u00e3os aliment\u00edcios. Em Kharif 2019, a mon\u00e7\u00e3o chegou tarde, criando muita preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o sobre a produ\u00e7\u00e3o total de gr\u00e3os aliment\u00edcios. No entanto, nos meses de julho e agosto, em algumas partes do pa\u00eds a chuva foi adequada, compensando esse d\u00e9ficit. As enchentes indianas de 2019 (que em geral receberam menos aten\u00e7\u00e3o do que as enchentes de primavera nos EUA) foram uma s\u00e9rie de enchentes que afetaram mais de nove estados no final de julho e in\u00edcio de agosto de 2019, devido \u00e0s chuvas incessantes. Os estados de Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra e Gujarat foram os mais severamente afetados. Apesar disso, a \u00cdndia recebeu apenas 1% a mais de chuva do que a m\u00e9dia desde o in\u00edcio da esta\u00e7\u00e3o das mon\u00e7\u00f5es em 1\u00ba de junho.<\/p>\n

A semeadura da safra Kharif j\u00e1 terminou e, apesar das chuvas tardias, o lento advento das mon\u00e7\u00f5es fez com que o decl\u00ednio na \u00e1rea de safra Kharif fosse um pouco mais de 2% menor do que a \u00e1rea cultivada do ano passado. Um decl\u00ednio de 2% na \u00e1rea pode parecer insignificante, mas n\u00e3o leva em conta a perda de \u00e1rea de safra em p\u00e9 devido \u00e0s enchentes em partes de Karnataka, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Bihar e outros estados do leste. Em 22 de agosto, estima-se que Kharif 2019 tenha visto um decl\u00ednio de cerca de 7% na \u00e1rea de arroz em rela\u00e7\u00e3o a Kharif 2018, embora a \u00e1rea de algod\u00e3o tenha aumentado em 5%. Ainda h\u00e1 incerteza, portanto, sobre o quanto essa "mudan\u00e7a" na \u00e1rea cultivada impactar\u00e1 o uso de produtos de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de safras em Kharif 2019.<\/p>\n

A mon\u00e7\u00e3o deste ano pode ter chegado tarde; no entanto, deve ser ben\u00e9fica para a pr\u00f3xima temporada de Rabi, na qual a semeadura da safra depende em grande parte da umidade acumulada do solo e dos reservat\u00f3rios de \u00e1gua para fins de irriga\u00e7\u00e3o. Uma boa safra de Rabi, especialmente de trigo, batata e milho Rabi, tamb\u00e9m deve impulsionar o mercado de herbicidas.<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m da mon\u00e7\u00e3o, a lagarta-do-cartucho (Spodoptera frugiperda<\/em>) o ataque continua sendo um fator significativo na \u00cdndia Central em 2019, ap\u00f3s os surtos no sul da \u00cdndia em 2018. A infesta\u00e7\u00e3o foi encontrada principalmente no milho e, em pequena extens\u00e3o, no milheto e no sorgo. Lagarta-do-algodoeiro-rosada (Pectinophora gossypiella<\/em>) espera-se que o ataque seja maior do que no ano passado no algod\u00e3o, \u00e0 medida que a resist\u00eancia ao gene Bt se desenvolve. Somado a essas agora \u201cpragas estabelecidas\u201d, a erva daninha Doublegee (Emex australis Steinh<\/em>) em trigo em Haryana, erva daninha cebola (Asf\u00f3delo Fistuloso<\/em>) e mosca-branca espiralada rugosa (Aleurodicus rugioperculatus Martinho<\/em>) oferecem a oportunidade de introduzir mol\u00e9culas novas e existentes no futuro.<\/p>\n

Apesar dessas oportunidades, do jeito que est\u00e1, \u00e9 improv\u00e1vel que a \u201c\u00cdndia 2019\u201d seja t\u00e3o boa quanto a \u201c\u00cdndia 2018\u201d quando medida em termos de crescimento.<\/p>\n

\n

A an\u00e1lise de Kleffmann \u00e9 baseada em dados coletados de pesquisas com agricultores, entrevistas com distribuidores em mercados emergentes, estudos de tend\u00eancias de mercado propriet\u00e1rios, especialistas no assunto e informa\u00e7\u00f5es de c\u00f3digo aberto. As pesquisas com agricultores continuam a fornecer a maior parte dos dados para nossa an\u00e1lise, embora nosso programa de \u201cestudos de tend\u00eancias\u201d esteja se tornando mais significativo. Os estudos de tend\u00eancias permitem um exame abrangente de muitos mercados menores, mas de r\u00e1pido crescimento, particularmente aqueles no continente africano. Muitos \u201cpa\u00edses de estudo de tend\u00eancias\u201d se tornar\u00e3o o pr\u00f3ximo grupo de \u201cpa\u00edses de pesquisas com agricultores\u201d \u00e0 medida que as empresas entendem melhor seu potencial de crescimento.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O mercado global de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos em 2018 aumentou a uma taxa de 2,0% em termos nominais em rela\u00e7\u00e3o a 2017;\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":64942,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,28,5],"tags":[54,1236],"class_list":["post-64951","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-asia","category-markets","tag-featured-home","tag-india"],"yoast_head":"\nGlobal Crop Protection Trends: India Remains a 'Market of Significance' - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The global crop protection market in 2018 increased at a rate of 2.0% in nominal terms over that of 2017; marginally better than the 1.9% achieved in 2017\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/global-crop-protection-trends-india-remains-a-market-of-significance\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Global Crop Protection Trends: India Remains a 'Market of Significance' - AgriBusiness Global\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The global crop protection market in 2018 increased at a rate of 2.0% in nominal terms over that of 2017; 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