{"id":65417,"date":"2020-01-28T15:49:19","date_gmt":"2020-01-28T20:49:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=65417"},"modified":"2021-06-14T15:38:40","modified_gmt":"2021-06-14T19:38:40","slug":"outlook-2020-the-future-of-the-global-crop-protection-industry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/outlook-2020-the-future-of-the-global-crop-protection-industry\/","title":{"rendered":"Outlook 2020: O futuro da ind\u00fastria global de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tumulto. Tumulto. Problema. Lucro. Promessa. Potencial.<\/p>\n

Escolha. Quando se trata de 2020, essas palavras parecem descrever o sentimento rumo ao novo ano. 2019 foi um ano que continuou a ver crescimento em produtos biol\u00f3gicos e aplica\u00e7\u00e3o de precis\u00e3o e ataques \u00e0 prote\u00e7\u00e3o tradicional de cultivos. A turbul\u00eancia pol\u00edtica deixou muitos confusos e buscando novas linhas de suprimento.<\/p>\n

Conversamos com veteranos do setor e especialistas do segmento, cuja experi\u00eancia nos deixa bastante confiantes em suas opini\u00f5es sobre 2020.<\/p>\n

A Perspectiva Regulat\u00f3ria<\/h2>\n

\u201cOs desafios regulat\u00f3rios continuam a ser uma preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o e talvez prejudiciais para alguns pesticidas\u201d, diz Melinda McCann, De Adama<\/a> Gerente de Desenvolvimento de Neg\u00f3cios e Sourcing Estrat\u00e9gico da Am\u00e9rica do Norte. \u00c9 algo que a empresa continuar\u00e1 monitorando.<\/p>\n

\u201cOs aspetos regulamentares continuar\u00e3o a dificultar o crescimento dos biopesticidas e dos agentes de biocontrolo\u201d, afirma CS Liew, Diretor Executivo, Pacific Agriscience<\/a>. \u201cAs regras n\u00e3o existem ou n\u00e3o s\u00e3o claras e continuar\u00e3o assim por pelo menos mais dois anos.\u201d<\/p>\n

O que est\u00e1 acontecendo com a China?<\/h2>\n

A China \u00e9 de longe o maior curinga no setor de insumos agr\u00edcolas, considerando a atual guerra tarif\u00e1ria\/comercial, as cont\u00ednuas inspe\u00e7\u00f5es ambientais que causaram o fechamento de f\u00e1bricas e as preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es com a disponibilidade de suprimentos.<\/p>\n

\u201cA disputa comercial entre a China e os EUA continua sendo o fator pol\u00edtico mais significativo que impacta a ind\u00fastria agr\u00edcola\u201d, diz Liew. \u201cIsso ter\u00e1 um impacto na economia mundial e ter\u00e1 um impacto negativo na demanda. As mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas tamb\u00e9m continuar\u00e3o a causar estragos em v\u00e1rias regi\u00f5es ao redor do mundo. A Austr\u00e1lia est\u00e1 pegando fogo, enquanto falamos.\u201d<\/p>\n

Um acordo comercial de fase um, acertado no final do ano passado, estava programado para ser assinado em 15 de janeiro. Mas, como o nome indica, esse foi o primeiro passo em um relacionamento complicado, apenas mais confuso por um presidente que foi acusado (mas provavelmente n\u00e3o ser\u00e1 removido do cargo) e pode ser votado para fora no final do ano.<\/p>\n

Se assinado, os EUA concordaram em n\u00e3o impor tarifas 15% sobre os produtos da tranche 4b, que inclu\u00edam glifosato e glufosinato. Os EUA tamb\u00e9m concordaram em cortar pela metade as tarifas na tranche 4a, que inclui 2,4-D e dicamba, explica Jim Delisi, chefe da Fanwood Chemical Inc.<\/a> Al\u00e9m disso, a China prometeu comprar quantidades significativas de produtos agr\u00edcolas.<\/p>\n

Ir\u00e3 e Coreia do Norte parecem estar testando o presidente dos EUA politicamente. Resta saber como a China percebe a situa\u00e7\u00e3o e responder\u00e1.<\/p>\n

\u201cIncertezas s\u00e3o dif\u00edceis de administrar \u2014 e elas permanecer\u00e3o no futuro previs\u00edvel\u201d, diz Delisi. E mesmo quando o acordo da fase um for assinado, ainda h\u00e1 outras tarifas que devem ser tratadas.<\/p>\n

As tarifas 25% na tranche 3 provavelmente permanecer\u00e3o em vigor por pelo menos seis a nove meses sob este acordo, diz Delisi, e n\u00e3o h\u00e1 inten\u00e7\u00e3o de se comprometer a alter\u00e1-las at\u00e9 que o acordo da fase dois seja assinado. \u201cO resultado \u00e9 que os importadores de qualquer coisa da China em qualquer uma dessas listas precisam ser cautelosos. Se eles trouxerem material para os EUA, e as tarifas forem suspensas, eles acabar\u00e3o com um dep\u00f3sito cheio de produtos caros, sem reembolsos \u00e0 vista. Se eles n\u00e3o importarem, n\u00e3o ter\u00e3o nada para vender quando os clientes vierem ligar\u201d, diz ele.<\/p>\n

A McCann espera ver \u201cescassez de alguns pesticidas devido ao fechamento de fabricantes na China. Esperamos que (muitos) estejam de volta \u00e0 ativa para a temporada de 2021.\u201d Al\u00e9m disso, por causa dos problemas de fabrica\u00e7\u00e3o de alguns pesticidas na China, h\u00e1 novos fabricantes entrando na ativa em 2020 que, esperan\u00e7osamente, minimizar\u00e3o a escassez.<\/p>\n

A assinatura do acordo da primeira fase pode servir apenas para refor\u00e7ar a cren\u00e7a do presidente Trump de que as tarifas s\u00e3o uma ferramenta eficaz, apesar de um relat\u00f3rio recente do Federal Reserve que concluiu que as tarifas americanas tinham mais custos do que benef\u00edcios para o setor que pretendiam ajudar \u2014 a manufatura. Jornal de Wall Street<\/em> tamb\u00e9m sugeriu que a pol\u00edtica protecionista reduziu o crescimento econ\u00f4mico de 3% para 2%.<\/p>\n

\u201cA continua\u00e7\u00e3o de uma disputa comercial entre a China e os EUA continuar\u00e1 a ter impacto na agricultura\u201d, diz Liew. \u201cParece que Trump triunfar\u00e1 e, portanto, a disputa continuar\u00e1 e pode se intensificar, dado o novo mandato que Trump receber\u00e1. A Am\u00e9rica do Sul se beneficiar\u00e1 \u00e0s custas dos agricultores dos EUA. A demanda por insumos mudar\u00e1 dos EUA para a Am\u00e9rica do Sul.\u201d<\/p>\n

Produtos de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos futuros<\/h2>\n

De acordo com um painel de discuss\u00e3o durante o Agroneg\u00f3cio Global<\/em>\u00a0Trade Summit, haver\u00e1 $7 bilh\u00f5es investidos em P&D do setor agr\u00edcola nos pr\u00f3ximos anos. Cinquenta produtos devem perder a patente at\u00e9 2023. Os participantes do painel comentaram n\u00e3o apenas sobre a promessa de inova\u00e7\u00f5es que vir\u00e3o, mas tamb\u00e9m sobre a import\u00e2ncia de se manterem atualizados sobre as mudan\u00e7as. Liew aconselhou as organiza\u00e7\u00f5es a permanecerem proativas e delegar uma for\u00e7a-tarefa ou elas ser\u00e3o lideradas por aqueles que o fizerem.<\/p>\n

\u201cAcredito que o que ser\u00e1 muito importante para todos os compradores em todo o mundo em qualquer neg\u00f3cio \u00e9 o modelo de parceria\u201d, disse Subhra Jyoti Roy, vice-presidente de neg\u00f3cios internacionais. Rallis \u00cdndia<\/a>, diz. \u201cA chave \u00e9 como voc\u00eas v\u00e3o alavancar os pontos fortes um do outro. Parceria \u00e9 algo que vai ser muito importante.\u201d<\/p>\n

Aplica\u00e7\u00e3o de precis\u00e3o<\/h2>\n

O painel da C\u00fapula do Com\u00e9rcio sugeriu que o futuro da prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos envolveria mais tecnologia e menos trabalho humano.<\/p>\n

\u201cCada vez mais, os pa\u00edses t\u00eam problemas em encontrar m\u00e3o de obra barata para aplicar produtos qu\u00edmicos e ajudar fazendeiros mais velhos. Acho que haver\u00e1 uma ado\u00e7\u00e3o muito mais ampla dessa (tecnologia de aplica\u00e7\u00e3o de drones) daqui para frente, o que leva \u00e0 necessidade de desenvolvimento de novas formula\u00e7\u00f5es\u201d, diz Liew. \u201c\u00c9 aqui que vemos que a tecnologia ter\u00e1 uma grande for\u00e7a motriz e impacto nos pr\u00f3ximos anos.\u201d<\/p>\n

De uma perspectiva indiana, os pr\u00f3ximos cinco anos ser\u00e3o liderados digitalmente, diz Roy. \u201cTemos um longo caminho a percorrer, mas a confian\u00e7a e o comprometimento demonstrados n\u00e3o t\u00eam precedentes. Um bom n\u00famero de empresas indianas j\u00e1 investiu em aplica\u00e7\u00f5es digitais.\u201d Seja por meio de imagens de sat\u00e9lite, drones ou outras itera\u00e7\u00f5es de agricultura de precis\u00e3o, \u201cacho que produtividade \u00e9 o que todos est\u00e3o olhando.\u201d<\/p>\n

O Meio Ambiente<\/h2>\n

Grande parte da preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o com a interrup\u00e7\u00e3o do fornecimento decorre de A repress\u00e3o da China contra fabricantes que violam as regulamenta\u00e7\u00f5es ambientais<\/a>. Espera-se que isso continue. Nos EUA e na Europa, ativistas ambientais continuam a pressionar governos sobre o glifosato e outros insumos agr\u00edcolas que eles consideram perigosos. N\u00e3o h\u00e1 raz\u00e3o para esperar menos press\u00e3o dos consumidores.<\/p>\n

Parece que toda discuss\u00e3o sobre agricultura envolve gest\u00e3o de \u00e1gua e mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas. \u201cN\u00e3o importa o que voc\u00ea acredite, 2020 ver\u00e1 mudan\u00e7as\u201d, diz Bob Trogele, COO e vice-presidente executivo da AMVAC. \u201cSendo um Aggie experiente, vejo isso como neutro. Esperando pelo melhor. Administre isso se isso afetar voc\u00ea \u2014 voc\u00ea n\u00e3o pode controlar a M\u00e3e Natureza.\u201d<\/p>\n

A agricultura n\u00e3o pode mais existir em um silo. Os fabricantes de insumos agr\u00edcolas n\u00e3o podem ignorar outros aspectos da ind\u00fastria. Como eles come\u00e7aram a adotar produtos biol\u00f3gicos em seus portf\u00f3lios, e muitos est\u00e3o fatorando as implica\u00e7\u00f5es da agricultura de precis\u00e3o, eles tamb\u00e9m devem pensar sobre seu impacto ambiental e gest\u00e3o de \u00e1gua.<\/p>\n

Produtos Biol\u00f3gicos<\/h2>\n

Produtos biol\u00f3gicos \u2014 tanto pesticidas quanto bioestimulantes \u2014 ganharam aceita\u00e7\u00e3o em todo o mundo, embora em taxas diferentes. Embora talvez nem todos tenham adotado esses produtos completamente, o consenso \u00e9 que eles continuar\u00e3o a crescer em popularidade, e seria tolice ignorar.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs oportunidades em biopesticidas e agentes de biocontrole continuar\u00e3o a crescer, \u00e0 medida que consumidores e grupos de lobby na UE exigem mais produtos frescos e alimentos com menos ou nenhum res\u00edduo qu\u00edmico\u201d, diz Liew.<\/p>\n

Consolida\u00e7\u00e3o<\/h2>\n

V\u00e1rios veteranos da ind\u00fastria discutiram o futuro dos insumos agr\u00edcolas durante um painel de discuss\u00e3o no Agroneg\u00f3cio Global<\/em> C\u00fapula do Com\u00e9rcio.<\/p>\n

\u201cA maior mudan\u00e7a que vejo \u00e9 o amadurecimento da nossa ind\u00fastria no n\u00edvel da fazenda\u201d, disse Trogele na reuni\u00e3o. \u201cH\u00e1 uma segunda rodada (de consolida\u00e7\u00e3o) chegando.\u201d<\/p>\n

O lado positivo, ele continuou, \u00e9 que, para empresas menores, as oportunidades s\u00e3o abundantes. \u201cHaver\u00e1 novos donos desses ativos. H\u00e1 muito dinheiro l\u00e1 fora para ser colocado. A maior desvantagem \u00e9 que, se voc\u00ea n\u00e3o estiver participando, estar\u00e1 perdendo o trem.\u201d<\/p>\n

O foco na inova\u00e7\u00e3o, tanto na tecnologia de aplica\u00e7\u00e3o quanto na sa\u00fade do solo, est\u00e1 prestes a mudar o cen\u00e1rio agr\u00edcola. Trogele v\u00ea as startups como a fonte de grande parte dessa inova\u00e7\u00e3o, e "se voc\u00ea seguir o dinheiro, ele est\u00e1 indo para essas pequenas empresas. ... H\u00e1 muita disrup\u00e7\u00e3o e muita oportunidade", disse ele, acrescentando: "Voc\u00ea tem que ficar mais perto do seu cliente porque ele vai impulsionar essa inova\u00e7\u00e3o com voc\u00ea".<\/p>\n

2020 provavelmente ser\u00e1 um ano de disrup\u00e7\u00e3o. Esses desafios podem criar turbul\u00eancia para as empresas, mas tamb\u00e9m podem criar oportunidades. \u00c9 imposs\u00edvel prever todos os desafios que provavelmente surgir\u00e3o, mas espero que esses veteranos da ind\u00fastria tenham oferecido alguma vis\u00e3o sobre alguns dos problemas que a ind\u00fastria enfrentar\u00e1 em 2020 e al\u00e9m.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V\u00e1rios veteranos da agricultura oferecem insights sobre as quest\u00f5es que influenciar\u00e3o os neg\u00f3cios no ano novo.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":377,"featured_media":59849,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,5,1846],"tags":[54],"class_list":["post-65417","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-markets","category-sustainability","tag-featured-home"],"yoast_head":"\nOutlook 2020: The Future of the Global Crop Protection Industry - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Several ag veterans offer insight on the issues that will influence business in the new year.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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