{"id":65421,"date":"2020-02-11T10:20:29","date_gmt":"2020-02-11T15:20:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=65421"},"modified":"2020-02-18T15:01:12","modified_gmt":"2020-02-18T20:01:12","slug":"how-will-the-shift-from-nafta-to-usmca-impact-the-mexican-agrochemicals-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/how-will-the-shift-from-nafta-to-usmca-impact-the-mexican-agrochemicals-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Como a mudan\u00e7a do NAFTA para o USMCA impactar\u00e1 o mercado mexicano de agroqu\u00edmicos?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Em termos de pr\u00e1ticas agr\u00edcolas, o M\u00e9xico est\u00e1 mais alinhado com a Am\u00e9rica do Sul do que com a Am\u00e9rica do Norte. O mesmo n\u00e3o \u00e9 verdade para alinhamentos pol\u00edticos ou comerciais. O M\u00e9xico est\u00e1 mais alinhado com o Norte, onde o Acordo de Livre Com\u00e9rcio da Am\u00e9rica do Norte (NAFTA) original essencialmente eliminou barreiras ao com\u00e9rcio e investimento entre o M\u00e9xico e os EUA. A implementa\u00e7\u00e3o do NAFTA em 1994 removeu tarifas sobre mais da metade das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es do M\u00e9xico para os EUA, incluindo produtos agr\u00edcolas.<\/p>\n

\"TableEm 2018, as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de produtos agr\u00edcolas do M\u00e9xico para os EUA totalizaram US $26 bilh\u00f5es. Vegetais frescos ($5,9 bilh\u00f5es), frutas frescas ($5,8 bilh\u00f5es) e frutas e vegetais processados ($1,7 bilh\u00f5es) foram respons\u00e1veis por mais de 50% dessas exporta\u00e7\u00f5es. Em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com 1993 (pr\u00e9-NAFTA), as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es comerciais gerais do M\u00e9xico para os EUA aumentaram em cerca de 800%. Este tem sido um dos principais impulsionadores do crescimento do mercado agr\u00edcola dom\u00e9stico mexicano desde 1993. Os fluxos comerciais, no entanto, funcionam nos dois sentidos, e as importa\u00e7\u00f5es para o M\u00e9xico dos EUA totalizaram $20 bilh\u00f5es em 2018. As principais categorias de importa\u00e7\u00e3o incluem milho ($3,1 bilh\u00f5es) e soja ($1,7 bilh\u00f5es).<\/p>\n

Embora o d\u00e9ficit comercial em produtos agr\u00edcolas seja de apenas $6 bilh\u00f5es, o d\u00e9ficit comercial geral entre o M\u00e9xico e os EUA chega a cerca de $80 bilh\u00f5es a $100 bilh\u00f5es em uma base anual. Esse d\u00e9ficit comercial foi uma das promessas de campanha do presidente Trump para o "descarte" ou renegocia\u00e7\u00e3o do NAFTA, e no final de 2016 os EUA, Canad\u00e1 e M\u00e9xico assinaram um acordo para substituir o acordo mais antigo. Em junho do ano passado, o M\u00e9xico se tornou o primeiro pa\u00eds a ratificar esse acordo conhecido como Acordo Estados Unidos-M\u00e9xico-Canad\u00e1 (USMCA).<\/a> O USMCA pode ser considerado como NAFTA 2.0; no entanto, h\u00e1 algumas mudan\u00e7as significativas que impactar\u00e3o o com\u00e9rcio agr\u00edcola daqui para frente e, por sua vez, o mercado dom\u00e9stico mexicano de pesticidas. No momento da impress\u00e3o, o USMCA havia sido assinado por todos os tr\u00eas pa\u00edses, mas ratificado apenas pelo M\u00e9xico, embora o Congresso dos EUA tenha indicado que estava disposto a aprovar o acordo.<\/p>\n

\"Figure<\/p>\n

Em grande parte, como resultado do alinhamento comercial sob o NAFTA, o mercado interno mexicano cresceu mais r\u00e1pido do que muitos outros mercados latino-americanos, de modo que agora ocupa a terceira posi\u00e7\u00e3o no mercado latino-americano geral.<\/p>\n

M\u00e9xico: Mercado em Crescimento<\/h2>\n

Conforme publicado em junho passado, o mercado global de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos em 2018 aumentou a uma taxa de 2% em termos nominais em rela\u00e7\u00e3o a 2017. Como um n\u00famero comparativo, o mercado mexicano cresceu mais de 8% em 2018 em compara\u00e7\u00e3o a 2017. O M\u00e9xico tamb\u00e9m superou consideravelmente o crescimento do mercado global, com uma taxa de crescimento anual composta (CAGR) de 4,3% por ano no per\u00edodo de 2008 a 2018, em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com uma CAGR mais modesta de 2,3% por ano para o mercado global no mesmo per\u00edodo.<\/p>\n

\"Figure<\/p>\n

\"Figure<\/p>\n

\"Figure<\/p>\n

\"Figure<\/p>\n

O M\u00e9xico, como a maioria dos mercados, sofreu um decl\u00ednio em 2009 (como resultado da crise financeira) e depois novamente em 2014, quando, entre outros fatores, ocorreu um decl\u00ednio acentuado nos pre\u00e7os das commodities. O M\u00e9xico sofreu mais do que a maioria dos mercados e n\u00e3o registrou uma recupera\u00e7\u00e3o at\u00e9 2018, em parte devido \u00e0 incerteza em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao NAFTA e ao USMCA.<\/p>\n

Deixando de lado o aumento de valor, o mercado tamb\u00e9m est\u00e1 mudando um pouco e se tornando mais focado em inseticidas e herbicidas ao comparar as divis\u00f5es do setor de 2008 com as de 2018 (Figuras 2 e 3).<\/p>\n

O mesmo \u00e9 verdade se compararmos a import\u00e2ncia relativa dos diferentes grupos de culturas em termos de gastos com pesticidas (Figuras 4 e 5).<\/p>\n

O desenvolvimento mais marcante do mercado dom\u00e9stico no per\u00edodo de 2008 a 2018 \u00e9 o crescimento no mercado de milho impulsionado por um aumento na \u00e1rea de cultivo, um aumento geral na intensidade do uso do produto (particularmente inseticidas) e, mais recentemente, as crescentes preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es com o fracasso das discuss\u00f5es do USMCA. A crescente import\u00e2ncia do milho e o decl\u00ednio de outras frutas e vegetais tamb\u00e9m explicam, de certa forma, a mudan\u00e7a nas vendas do setor em dire\u00e7\u00e3o a herbicidas e inseticidas e longe de fungicidas (Figuras 2 e 3).<\/p>\n

Assim como o uso de pesticidas, a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de milho tamb\u00e9m cresceu. Entre 2008 e 2018, a produ\u00e7\u00e3o aumentou a um CAGR de aproximadamente 1,6%, com o milho branco crescendo em torno de 1,2% e o milho amarelo em torno de 7%. Por tr\u00e1s dessas taxas de crescimento est\u00e3o os rendimentos crescentes, em parte resultado do aumento da mecaniza\u00e7\u00e3o e das variedades de sementes melhoradas. Entre 2012 e 2017, a \u00e1rea de milho mecanizado cresceu a um CAGR de 3,5% e em 7,8% em \u00e1reas de produ\u00e7\u00e3o irrigadas. No mesmo per\u00edodo, a \u00e1rea cultivada com sementes de milho melhoradas aumentou a um CAGR de 4,4%, novamente em 8,2% mais alto em \u00e1reas de produ\u00e7\u00e3o irrigadas. Al\u00e9m dos ganhos obtidos por meio de maiores rendimentos, o aumento dos pre\u00e7os tamb\u00e9m aumentou o valor da produ\u00e7\u00e3o de milho no M\u00e9xico em mais de 100% desde 2005, uma tend\u00eancia que deve continuar.<\/p>\n

Perspectivas para 2020<\/h2>\n

A import\u00e2ncia de um resultado favor\u00e1vel do USMCA n\u00e3o deve ser subestimada no desenvolvimento do mercado mexicano de pesticidas. Os EUA t\u00eam uma elei\u00e7\u00e3o presidencial se aproximando, o que pode inviabilizar o acordo completamente. Preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es (no momento da reda\u00e7\u00e3o) sobre direitos trabalhistas no M\u00e9xico tamb\u00e9m t\u00eam o potencial de inviabilizar o processo.<\/p>\n

Contudo, tal como acontece com outras disputas comerciais internacionais, incluindo a Guerra comercial China\/EUA<\/a> e \u201cBrexit\u201d, USMCA, se assinado, pode ser um de um trio de acordos com impacto significativo nos mercados globais de pesticidas em 2020.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

De um acordo comercial para outro, o mercado de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos do pa\u00eds foi, e continuar\u00e1 sendo, significativamente impactado.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":377,"featured_media":65444,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,26,5],"tags":[554],"class_list":["post-65421","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-americas","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"\nHow Will the Shift from NAFTA to USMCA Impact the Mexican Agrochemicals Market? - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"From one trade agreement to maybe another, the country\u2019s crop protection market has been, and will continue to be, significantly impacted.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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