{"id":65738,"date":"2020-04-21T14:19:15","date_gmt":"2020-04-21T18:19:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=65738"},"modified":"2021-03-17T09:37:24","modified_gmt":"2021-03-17T13:37:24","slug":"china-pricing-index-agrochemical-prices-fall-during-lower-demand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/china-pricing-index-agrochemical-prices-fall-during-lower-demand\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00cdndice de Pre\u00e7os da China: Pre\u00e7os de Agroqu\u00edmicos Caem Durante Menor Demanda"},"content":{"rendered":"

O mundo estava a operar em sincronia com a lei da vantagem comparativa, que David Ricardo publicou em \u201cSobre os Princ\u00edpios da Economia Pol\u00edtica e da Tributa\u00e7\u00e3o\u201d em 1817. No rescaldo da COVID 19<\/a>, pode parecer que a lei est\u00e1 quebrada, mas n\u00e3o est\u00e1. Em vez disso, a comunidade global estabelecer\u00e1 um novo equil\u00edbrio e realocar\u00e1 seus recursos de acordo.<\/p>\n

De acordo com a lei da vantagem comparativa, sob o livre com\u00e9rcio, um agente produzir\u00e1 mais e consumir\u00e1 menos de um bem para o qual ele tem uma vantagem comparativa. O livre com\u00e9rcio minimiza o custo de toda a sociedade e traz mais valor para as pessoas. Os fazendeiros dos EUA s\u00e3o bons em cultivo de soja transg\u00eanica, e a China \u00e9 boa em produ\u00e7\u00e3o de agroqu\u00edmicos. Esse \u00e9 um exemplo simples de vantagem comparativa.<\/p>\n

Em mar\u00e7o, a China come\u00e7ou a reiniciar suas f\u00e1bricas ap\u00f3s o controle da COVID-19. Todos os fabricantes da China precisaram reunir trabalhadores de outras prov\u00edncias em grandes dist\u00e2ncias. O governo federal exigiu que os governadores locais testassem as temperaturas de todas as pessoas em espa\u00e7os p\u00fablicos. At\u00e9 agora, algumas \u00e1reas na China ainda exigem que os viajantes de \u00e1reas potencialmente infectadas fiquem em casa por 14 dias para confirmar se os viajantes est\u00e3o infectados ou n\u00e3o, como precau\u00e7\u00e3o para silenciar a segunda onda de dissemina\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

As \u00e1reas rurais se recuperaram mais r\u00e1pido do que as cidades, j\u00e1 que o cultivo de primavera deve ser mantido. At\u00e9 28 de mar\u00e7o, a taxa de opera\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 de at\u00e9 98,6%, de acordo com o Minist\u00e9rio da Ind\u00fastria e Tecnologia da Informa\u00e7\u00e3o. Mas n\u00e3o \u00e9 capacidade total para a ind\u00fastria de manufatura at\u00e9 que todo o pa\u00eds opere em um n\u00edvel correspondente.<\/p>\n

A Nufarm EU est\u00e1 enfrentando grandes desafios no transporte de caminh\u00f5es em todos os pa\u00edses da UE devido \u00e0 COVID-19. A China estava enfrentando o mesmo desafio. O motivo diferente na China foi que os motoristas de caminh\u00e3o tiveram que ficar em casa para controle da COVID-19 desde o feriado de primavera chin\u00eas. A taxa de transporte de carga em fevereiro no leste da China \u00e9 de cerca de 70% a 80% em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com fevereiro de 2019. A taxa de transporte do sudoeste \u00e9 de at\u00e9 80% a 90%. As grandes cidades como Pequim e Xangai s\u00e3o mais baixas do que as \u00e1reas locais. Em mar\u00e7o, o transporte de carga mostrou recupera\u00e7\u00e3o significativa.<\/p>\n

Com base nos dois fatores anteriores, a taxa de opera\u00e7\u00e3o e o transporte, o fornecimento de agroqu\u00edmicos em mar\u00e7o foi muito apertado devido ao baixo estoque de ingredientes ativos. A incerteza deixou os gerentes de compras ansiosos sobre o fornecimento da China, e os pre\u00e7os aumentaram em alguns ingredientes ativos. E as infec\u00e7\u00f5es na UE e nos EUA complicaram ainda mais as coisas.<\/p>\n

O bloqueio global significa que os varejistas internacionais n\u00e3o podem prosseguir para organizar sua cadeia de suprimentos. Quando Indianos tamb\u00e9m iniciam bloqueio<\/a> nacionalmente, alguns distribuidores globais est\u00e3o esperando as mat\u00e9rias-primas da China do Porto de Xangai. Utilizar e confiar na capacidade da planta local \u00e9 a principal prioridade para empresas multinacionais.<\/p>\n

Nesse caso, os principais pre\u00e7os dos ingredientes ativos est\u00e3o diminuindo desde a repentina demanda \u201czero\u201d do exterior. H\u00e1 alguns casos sobre cancelamento de pedidos de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o. A grande capacidade de herbicidas e inseticidas est\u00e1 em baixa de pre\u00e7o. Devido ao estoque sempre baixo de fungicidas, o pre\u00e7o do fungicida ainda est\u00e1 em alto n\u00edvel, como os fungicidas triaz\u00f3licos.<\/p>\n

Herbicidas<\/strong><\/h2>\n

O pre\u00e7o do clethodim AI aumentou 11% em mar\u00e7o, devido \u00e0 baixa taxa de opera\u00e7\u00e3o e \u00e0 escassez de fornecimento de mat\u00e9ria-prima. Portanto, as equipes de sourcing querem ter mais estoque em caso de escassez de fornecimento. No entanto, a taxa de opera\u00e7\u00e3o do glifosato \u00e9 recuperada. Enquanto isso, a taxa de transporte de carga em Sichuan est\u00e1 de volta a 90%, de acordo com o n\u00famero do Minist\u00e9rio dos Transportes, onde a Fuhua \u00e9 a principal produtora de glifosato na China. Todos os fatores est\u00e3o levando a uma queda no pre\u00e7o do glifosato devido \u00e0 fraca demanda do exterior.<\/p>\n

\"Clethodim\"<\/p>\n

A \u00e1rea de milho dos EUA aumentar\u00e1 8% de acordo com o USDA Perspective Planting Report 2020. A \u00e1rea de plantio de soja em 2020 nos EUA aumentar\u00e1 10% em compara\u00e7\u00e3o a 2019. Considerando a guerra tarif\u00e1ria entre a China e os EUA, pode ser a percep\u00e7\u00e3o positiva dos agricultores dos EUA sobre a China comprando soja dos EUA mais do que da Am\u00e9rica Latina. Correspondentemente, o Brasil e a Argentina tamb\u00e9m tentar\u00e3o encontrar solu\u00e7\u00f5es para aumentar a competitividade no pre\u00e7o da soja em 2020 para capitalizar os pedidos restantes da China. Com a forte demanda da China por produtos agr\u00edcolas, o mercado global de herbicidas pode ter a chance de permanecer mais est\u00e1vel em 2020 do que em 2019. A COVID-19 tamb\u00e9m deve pressionar os agricultores a escolher a maneira de economizar m\u00e3o de obra de usar herbicida esterilizante junto com o programa de sementes OGM.<\/p>\n

\"Glyphosate\"<\/p>\n

Fungicidas<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Em rela\u00e7\u00e3o aos fungicidas, os fungicidas triaz\u00f3licos ainda est\u00e3o em falta. Junto com a limita\u00e7\u00e3o de opera\u00e7\u00e3o, h\u00e1 uma forte demanda por difenoconazol e tebuconazol, que foram amplamente feitos em co-formula\u00e7\u00e3o com fungicidas de estrobilurina como azoxistrobina, trifloxistrobina e piraclostrobina, etc. E alguns s\u00e3o produtos-chave nos portf\u00f3lios de empresas multinacionais como misturas e formula\u00e7\u00f5es \u00fanicas de triazol como Nativo da Bayer CropSicence, MIRAVIS da Syngenta e Bumper da ADAMA. O fornecimento de empresas multinacionais n\u00e3o consegue atender totalmente \u00e0 demanda pela produ\u00e7\u00e3o e distribui\u00e7\u00e3o global desses produtos.<\/p>\n

O pre\u00e7o da azoxistrobina \u00e9 controlado de forma est\u00e1vel pela capacidade de fornecimento intermedi\u00e1rio chave. Mas devido \u00e0 flutua\u00e7\u00e3o da taxa de c\u00e2mbio do USD, o pre\u00e7o EXW est\u00e1 diminuindo lentamente para pre\u00e7os no exterior.<\/p>\n

\"Tebuconazole\"<\/p>\n

\"Difenoconazole\"<\/p>\n

\"Azoxystrobin\"<\/p>\n

Inseticidas<\/strong><\/h2>\n

O risco potencial da lagarta-do-cartucho (Esp\u00f3doptera f<\/em>rugiperda<\/em>) est\u00e1 aumentando na \u00c1sia. Os pa\u00edses asi\u00e1ticos t\u00eam uma forte necessidade de controlar a praga, ent\u00e3o muitos pedidos de benzoato de emamectina est\u00e3o sendo empurrados para a cadeia de valor, e o pre\u00e7o do benzoato de emamectina est\u00e1 aumentando na China. Mas a flutua\u00e7\u00e3o da taxa de c\u00e2mbio diluir\u00e1 o aumento do pre\u00e7o.<\/p>\n

\"Emamectin-Benzoate\"<\/p>\n

O tiametoxam \u00e9 afetado pelo fornecimento intermedi\u00e1rio da prov\u00edncia de Hubei, que foi o epicentro da COVID-19. Depois que o primeiro-ministro Narendra Modi anunciou o maior bloqueio do mundo em 24 de mar\u00e7o, 1,3 bilh\u00e3o de indianos tiveram que ficar em casa por 21 dias para desacelerar a dissemina\u00e7\u00e3o da COVID-19. Ser\u00e1 o impacto adicional no fornecimento global de agroqu\u00edmicos, j\u00e1 que os principais centros de fabrica\u00e7\u00e3o do mundo foram atingidos pela COVID-19 um ap\u00f3s o outro. O fornecimento na \u00cdndia tem sido est\u00e1vel at\u00e9 agora e, como resultado, o pre\u00e7o do inseticida piretroide tem sido est\u00e1vel globalmente, mas pode come\u00e7ar a aumentar na China.<\/p>\n

A China mudou recentemente o reembolso do IVA para os principais agroqu\u00edmicos para promover o com\u00e9rcio global. Isso dar\u00e1 um motivo adicional para os distribuidores globais comprarem. Mas, considerando o risco log\u00edstico, a carga que chega pode estar pendente devido ao controle de dissemina\u00e7\u00e3o da COVID-19 no porto de chegada. Ap\u00f3s a guerra tarif\u00e1ria, o Brasil \u00e9 o maior importador de agroqu\u00edmicos da China em 2019. Se a Am\u00e9rica Latina puder se recuperar do controle da COVID-19, os distribuidores na LATAM se beneficiar\u00e3o dessa pol\u00edtica em breve.<\/p>\n

A COVID-19 \u00e9 uma crise s\u00e9ria para a agricultura global e a seguran\u00e7a alimentar. A prote\u00e7\u00e3o das colheitas \u00e9 mais importante para os agricultores do que nunca. At\u00e9 agora, o mercado global como EUA e Brasil deve ter estoque suficiente no canal para os agricultores. Mas uma preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o maior ser\u00e1 o transporte da carga e a manuten\u00e7\u00e3o da colheita quando estivermos enfrentando escassez de m\u00e3o de obra.<\/p>\n

Empresas multinacionais com instala\u00e7\u00f5es de fabrica\u00e7\u00e3o globais poder\u00e3o realocar estrategicamente a produ\u00e7\u00e3o para mitigar problemas trabalhistas enquanto a COVID-19 continua a persistir. As equipes de sourcing global precisar\u00e3o contar com a capacidade da China e da \u00cdndia, mas tamb\u00e9m considerar o equil\u00edbrio do risco de crise global para os agricultores globais.<\/p>\n

A COVID-19 est\u00e1 nos pressionando a melhorar a inova\u00e7\u00e3o. N\u00e3o precisamos esperar por 2050, o mundo enfrentar\u00e1 o desafio juntos agora mesmo. Podemos antecipar que a prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos por UAV na China ter\u00e1 um bom potencial para levar a agricultura de precis\u00e3o ao campo. A escassez de m\u00e3o de obra e a manuten\u00e7\u00e3o de sistemas de produ\u00e7\u00e3o agr\u00edcola eficientes ser\u00e3o os principais t\u00f3picos de 2020 para todos os pa\u00edses do mundo. Aben\u00e7oe o mundo em nossa situa\u00e7\u00e3o unificada.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O coronav\u00edrus afeta a m\u00e3o de obra e a log\u00edstica, mas o fornecimento est\u00e1vel est\u00e1 mantendo os pre\u00e7os de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o dos principais ativos est\u00e1veis. <\/p>","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":62964,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,28,5],"tags":[1836,554,54],"class_list":["post-65738","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-asia","category-markets","tag-china-price-index","tag-featured","tag-featured-home"],"yoast_head":"\nChina Pricing Index: Agrochemical Prices Fall During Lower Demand - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Coronavirus tugs on labor and logistics, but steady supply is keeping export prices stable for key actives.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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