{"id":65884,"date":"2020-05-26T17:34:07","date_gmt":"2020-05-26T21:34:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=65884"},"modified":"2021-05-24T14:52:36","modified_gmt":"2021-05-24T18:52:36","slug":"a-new-normal-for-chinas-agrochemical-supply-is-coming-post-covid-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/a-new-normal-for-chinas-agrochemical-supply-is-coming-post-covid-19\/","title":{"rendered":"Um novo normal para o fornecimento de agroqu\u00edmicos da China est\u00e1 chegando ap\u00f3s a COVID-19"},"content":{"rendered":"

Muitos distribuidores da Am\u00e9rica Latina estavam investigando a mudan\u00e7a de suas cadeias de suprimentos para fora da China antes da COVID 19<\/a> pandemia. Houve situa\u00e7\u00f5es semelhantes quando Pequim se preparou para os Jogos Ol\u00edmpicos em 2008 e durante a interrup\u00e7\u00e3o semelhante a um tornado causada pelas a\u00e7\u00f5es de prote\u00e7\u00e3o ambiental da China a partir de 2017.<\/p>\n

2020 \u00e9 um Ano Geng Zi Chin\u00eas, que ocorre a cada 60 anos. De acordo com Yi Jing (Mudan\u00e7as de Zhou), o Ano Geng Zi ter\u00e1 uma grande mudan\u00e7a de destino. Em 2020, a cadeia global de suprimentos agroqu\u00edmicos est\u00e1 sofrendo com o bloqueio projetado para controlar a pandemia. Essas mudan\u00e7as trouxeram novos desafios para o fornecimento global dentro da ind\u00fastria de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos.<\/p>\n

A COVID-19 teve um grande impacto no fluxo de caixa. O distanciamento social levou a uma mudan\u00e7a na demanda do consumidor. Come\u00e7ou na cadeia de valor alimentar para impactar a agricultura para tr\u00e1s. At\u00e9 o momento, as culturas de campo como soja, milho e trigo n\u00e3o foram t\u00e3o severamente impactadas quanto o mercado de horticultura. A perda da colheita de frutas decorrente da COVID-19 reduzir\u00e1 as compras de agroqu\u00edmicos durante 2021. De acordo com uma pesquisa do BCG, a demanda por produtos frescos ser\u00e1 mais forte em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com outras culturas p\u00f3s-COVID-19. H\u00e1 uma boa chance de que o pre\u00e7o dos produtos frescos aumente em 2020\/2021 devido \u00e0 escassez de suprimentos. Quando os agricultores investirem na pr\u00f3xima temporada, eles podem pedir mais cr\u00e9dito aos distribuidores de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos para equilibrar a perda em 2020. Previsivelmente, as empresas de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos enfrentar\u00e3o desafios financeiros na promo\u00e7\u00e3o de vendas na pr\u00f3xima temporada.<\/p>\n

No novo normal que vir\u00e1 ap\u00f3s a COVID-19, a competi\u00e7\u00e3o na ind\u00fastria de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos se transformar\u00e1. Vencer durante a recupera\u00e7\u00e3o econ\u00f4mica ser\u00e1 mais importante do que nunca.<\/p>\n

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O fornecimento e a estrutura da ind\u00fastria agroqu\u00edmica tamb\u00e9m foram desafiados pela recente atividade de fus\u00f5es e aquisi\u00e7\u00f5es e pela elimina\u00e7\u00e3o gradual de muitos fabricantes ap\u00f3s a aplica\u00e7\u00e3o de regulamenta\u00e7\u00f5es ambientais. De acordo com os relat\u00f3rios anuais das empresas agroqu\u00edmicas listadas no mercado de a\u00e7\u00f5es da China, enormes quantidades de ingredientes ativos estar\u00e3o dispon\u00edveis em breve. Junto com a integra\u00e7\u00e3o de recursos de mat\u00e9rias-primas e intermedi\u00e1rios-chave do upstream, apenas alguns fabricantes t\u00eam a chance de dominar a participa\u00e7\u00e3o de mercado. A integra\u00e7\u00e3o da capacidade fortalecer\u00e1 o poder dos fornecedores.<\/p>\n

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Al\u00e9m da P&D de ingredientes ativos fora de patente e economia de custos de produ\u00e7\u00e3o, a inova\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 sempre um t\u00f3pico quente em toda a ind\u00fastria agroqu\u00edmica da China. Visando o controle de ervas daninhas resistentes a herbicidas, Rei Agroot<\/a> em Qingdao est\u00e1 trabalhando para fornecer as solu\u00e7\u00f5es mais completas \u2014 desde novos compostos at\u00e9 melhoramento gen\u00e9tico em um esfor\u00e7o para controlar ervas daninhas resistentes em planta\u00e7\u00f5es ao redor do mundo.<\/p>\n

Na era p\u00f3s-pandemia, as empresas multinacionais e os distribuidores nacionais de agroqu\u00edmicos enfrentar\u00e3o uma concorr\u00eancia maior quando os agricultores se tornarem \u201cinvestidores cautelosos\u201d. Rede de neg\u00f3cios de agricultores<\/a> nos EUA, alguns novos entrantes no mercado global est\u00e3o tentando tornar o agroneg\u00f3cio mais transparente. Ser\u00e1 um novo desafio para os programas tradicionais de \u201csementes e agroqu\u00edmicos\u201d oferecidos por empresas multinacionais quando a FBN introduzir uma nova base de criadores independentes em um modelo de neg\u00f3cios de fazendeiro para fazendeiro (F2F). Quando as economias vacilar, os modelos F2F poder\u00e3o aparecer em mais pa\u00edses.<\/p>\n

No novo normal p\u00f3s-COVID-19, o sourcing estrat\u00e9gico ser\u00e1 uma vit\u00f3ria r\u00e1pida e significativa para alian\u00e7as entre fornecedores globais, incluindo autofabrica\u00e7\u00e3o flex\u00edvel e P&D.<\/p>\n

O relacionamento tradicional de sourcing n\u00e3o \u00e9 eficiente sem sabedoria suficiente por pre\u00e7o de barganha e ETD\/ETA somente. Ele est\u00e1 mudando para \u201cRelacionamento por Alian\u00e7a Estrat\u00e9gica\u201d. Corteva Agriscience<\/a> Xangai e empresa chinesa Lier Qu\u00edmica<\/a> formou uma joint venture em Sichuan, China, no in\u00edcio de 2020. Com foco na demanda global de agricultores, a tecnologia de clora\u00e7\u00e3o de piridinas da Lier e a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de L-Glufocinato podem trazer mais competitividade ao mercado. A alian\u00e7a de longo prazo est\u00e1 atraindo mais vis\u00f5es positivas sobre o crescimento da Lier de investidores chineses.<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m disso, a inova\u00e7\u00e3o, que antes era compet\u00eancia exclusiva de empresas multinacionais, est\u00e1 migrando para fornecedores menores. Grupo Fuhua<\/a> est\u00e1 cooperando com Evonik<\/a> para desenvolver um novo portf\u00f3lio de formula\u00e7\u00f5es para aprimorar a inova\u00e7\u00e3o de ponta. A empresa l\u00edder global em produtos qu\u00edmicos especiais, Envoik, est\u00e1 ansiosa para trabalhar com os principais fornecedores agroqu\u00edmicos chineses em P&D e fornecer solu\u00e7\u00f5es de servi\u00e7o completo.<\/p>\n

Por outro lado, o impacto da COVID-19 est\u00e1 pressionando a ind\u00fastria agroqu\u00edmica global a ter mais tenacidade. O mercado de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos quer que os distribuidores forne\u00e7am um portf\u00f3lio e servi\u00e7o consistentes aos principais agricultores. Qualquer lacuna pode causar insatisfa\u00e7\u00e3o do agricultor. Foi a principal raz\u00e3o pela qual as multinacionais t\u00eam transferido o fornecimento para a \u00cdndia desde 2017 para equilibrar o risco de interrup\u00e7\u00f5es na produ\u00e7\u00e3o da China. Somente vendedores que visitam agricultores todos os dias podem entender o qu\u00e3o dif\u00edcil a situa\u00e7\u00e3o tem sido. Os distribuidores globais precisam de mais suporte log\u00edstico e de recursos da cadeia de suprimentos para manter a entrega no prazo, responder rapidamente a problemas e forte gerenciamento de continuidade de neg\u00f3cios (BCM). O gerenciamento de risco \u00e9 um t\u00f3pico crucial para l\u00edderes de fornecimento.<\/p>\n

O lado positivo \u00e9 que a COVID-19 exigiu que opera\u00e7\u00f5es menores fizessem a transi\u00e7\u00e3o para plataformas digitais que lhes permitissem tomar decis\u00f5es mais r\u00e1pidas e precisas. A solu\u00e7\u00e3o digital para equipes de compras e marketing ajudar\u00e1 as empresas de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos a economizar custos e diminuir a necessidade de viagens globais. A comunica\u00e7\u00e3o online e as auditorias online baseadas em casa se tornar\u00e3o o novo normal em um mundo p\u00f3s-COVID-19. Al\u00e9m disso, a agricultura digital se tornar\u00e1 mais amplamente aplicada e ajudar\u00e1 na explora\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos e na antecipa\u00e7\u00e3o de rendimentos de cultivos. As solu\u00e7\u00f5es digitais podem ajudar as empresas a diminuir o custo do gerenciamento log\u00edstico para atender \u00e0s demandas dos agricultores com mais precis\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

A \u00c1sia est\u00e1 \u00e0 frente da economia global e do retorno \u00e0 vida normal ap\u00f3s a COVID-19. A cadeia de suprimentos chinesa est\u00e1 ajudando empresas gen\u00e9ricas, como Nufarm<\/a>, para entrega de carga no prazo. Voltando ao primeiro trimestre de 2020, Icama<\/a> (Instituto de Controle de Agroqu\u00edmicos, Minist\u00e9rio da Agricultura, China) mencionou que a importa\u00e7\u00e3o e exporta\u00e7\u00e3o de pesticidas da China ano a ano est\u00e1 se recuperando desde mar\u00e7o de 2020. O maior decl\u00ednio foi em fevereiro ap\u00f3s o bloqueio da China para controlar a COVID-19. Os alunos retornando \u00e0s aulas e a programa\u00e7\u00e3o do Congresso Nacional do Povo e da Confer\u00eancia Consultiva Pol\u00edtica Chinesa (NPC&CPPCC) s\u00e3o sinais claros de que as preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es com a pandemia da COVID-19 na China est\u00e3o come\u00e7ando a diminuir.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

No entanto, a COVID-19 \u00e9 um impacto global. H\u00e1 um alto grau de incerteza sobre a futura demanda global por pesticidas. As reverbera\u00e7\u00f5es cont\u00ednuas da pandemia da COVID-19 s\u00e3o um empecilho para os n\u00fameros de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o de agroqu\u00edmicos da China.<\/p>\n

Os agricultores da China est\u00e3o se preparando para colher trigo de primavera e plantar milho. O mercado de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de safras da China est\u00e1 est\u00e1vel, pois houve previs\u00f5es claras sobre doen\u00e7as, especificamente spodoptera frugiperda<\/em>. A prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivo UAS atende \u00e0 demanda de distanciamento social durante o plantio intensivo de m\u00e3o de obra. As capacidades na China est\u00e3o de volta ao normal. Sem uma forte demanda global, o fornecimento de ingredientes ativos est\u00e1 aumentando para manter o custo da opera\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

Herbicidas<\/strong><\/h2>\n

O pre\u00e7o do clethodim AI ainda estava alto em abril devido \u00e0 baixa taxa de fabrica\u00e7\u00e3o e escassez de mat\u00e9rias-primas. N\u00e3o h\u00e1 espa\u00e7o para colocar mais pedidos na linha de produ\u00e7\u00e3o de clethodim. O estoque de glifosato est\u00e1 em est\u00e1gio baixo. O pre\u00e7o do glifosato estava indo para um ponto de virada e esperava-se que aumentasse at\u00e9 o final de abril. A temporada de plantio de milho est\u00e1 chegando em breve. O nicosulfuron est\u00e1 em estoque extremamente curto. Simplificando, n\u00e3o h\u00e1 estoque dispon\u00edvel suficiente no mercado. Da mesma forma, o pre\u00e7o do 2,4-D est\u00e1 subindo devido ao baixo estoque.<\/p>\n

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\n\"\"
\n\"\"<\/p>\n

Fungicidas<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Os fabricantes est\u00e3o trabalhando para aumentar a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de fungicidas triaz\u00f3licos. O difenoconazol est\u00e1 enfrentando uma escassez de fornecimento, o que se reflete em aumentos de pre\u00e7o. Yangonong-China<\/a> e De Hailir<\/a> nova capacidade deve ajudar a limitar a escassez de triaz\u00f3is.<\/p>\n

\"\"
\n\"\"<\/p>\n

A demanda pelo controle da mancha-de-olho-afiada do trigo estava diminuindo no mercado chin\u00eas em maio. A demanda por tebuconazol foi menor do que em mar\u00e7o. O pr\u00f3ximo ponto de inflex\u00e3o para a demanda por fungicida triazol depende da ferrugem da bainha do arroz e da brusone do arroz em junho.<\/p>\n

Os fornecedores de piraclostrobina enfrentar\u00e3o competi\u00e7\u00e3o constante. A vantagem competitiva ser\u00e1 o menor custo de produ\u00e7\u00e3o quando a capacidade do mercado superar a demanda. Durante a pandemia da COVID-19, a importa\u00e7\u00e3o de mat\u00e9rias-primas causa um aumento no custo da trifloxistrobina. A demanda dom\u00e9stica diminuiu para o procloraz, reduzindo o pre\u00e7o.<\/p>\n

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\n\"\"<\/p>\n

Inseticidas<\/strong><\/h2>\n

O risco potencial da lagarta-do-cartucho do milho (Esp\u00f3pteros <\/em>F<\/em>rugiperda<\/em>) ainda \u00e9 alto na China. Empresas multinacionais como ADAMA<\/a> est\u00e3o promovendo 15% emamectin benzoate + indoxacarb SC para combater a lagarta-do-cartucho na China. Os pedidos de emamectin benzoate v\u00eam principalmente do exterior. Esses fatores levaram \u00e0 estabilidade do pre\u00e7o do emamectin benzoate da China.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

A demanda por pesticidas neonicotinoides do exterior \u00e9 fraca. Combinado com o impacto da COVID-19, os n\u00edveis de estoque em todo o mercado est\u00e3o altos. Os pre\u00e7os de imidacloprida e acetamiprida est\u00e3o est\u00e1veis em n\u00edveis baixos. O tiametoxam ainda \u00e9 afetado pelo fornecimento intermedi\u00e1rio da prov\u00edncia de Hubei, na China, com taxa de opera\u00e7\u00e3o inst\u00e1vel.<\/p>\n

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\n\"\"<\/p>\n

A \u00cdndia tamb\u00e9m est\u00e1 lidando com a pandemia da COVID-19. As complexidades criadas pelas regras de distanciamento social tornam a cadeia de suprimentos de inseticida piretroide mais incerta. A cota\u00e7\u00e3o do inseticida piretroide continua aumentando na China.
\n\"\"<\/p>\n

No geral, fornecedores e distribuidores globais precisam considerar uma nova estrat\u00e9gia \u2014 um sourcing global unido. A pandemia da COVID-19 levou as equipes de sourcing a trabalhar com a divis\u00e3o de marketing em dire\u00e7\u00e3o ao mesmo objetivo \u2014 penetra\u00e7\u00e3o de mercado usando novas caracter\u00edsticas de formula\u00e7\u00f5es e economia de custos. A COVID-19 ensinou \u00e0 ind\u00fastria que pode haver preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es com capacidade quando os pa\u00edses temem o risco de alguma crise global ainda desconhecida, e as empresas devem aprender a se adaptar a esse novo normal. Os mercados equilibrar\u00e3o a realoca\u00e7\u00e3o de recursos globais para criar valor real para a sociedade. Al\u00e9m disso, tecnologia agr\u00edcola, agricultura de precis\u00e3o e agricultura digital podem ser pontos de crescimento potenciais para ajudar a diminuir o tempo necess\u00e1rio para a recupera\u00e7\u00e3o. Empreendedores inteligentes no agroneg\u00f3cio tomar\u00e3o as decis\u00f5es certas.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fornecedores e distribuidores globais precisam considerar uma nova estrat\u00e9gia p\u00f3s-pandemia: fornecimento global unificado.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":62964,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"A New Normal for China's Agrochemical Supply is Coming 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