{"id":66049,"date":"2020-07-21T15:03:10","date_gmt":"2020-07-21T19:03:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=66049"},"modified":"2020-07-14T08:43:35","modified_gmt":"2020-07-14T12:43:35","slug":"2020-agribusiness-global-state-of-the-industry-coronavirus-creates-new-normal-for-purchasing-terms-automation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/2020-agribusiness-global-state-of-the-industry-coronavirus-creates-new-normal-for-purchasing-terms-automation\/","title":{"rendered":"2020 AgriBusiness Global State of the Industry: Coronav\u00edrus cria novo normal para termos de compra e automa\u00e7\u00e3o"},"content":{"rendered":"

N\u00e3o h\u00e1 nada de normal em 2020, mas as atuais interrup\u00e7\u00f5es que est\u00e3o afetando a cadeia de valor alimentar provavelmente n\u00e3o afetar\u00e3o as empresas de insumos agr\u00edcolas at\u00e9 o quarto trimestre de 2021. O atraso na demanda real de produtos \u00e9 resultado principalmente de dois fatores: estoque robusto na cadeia de valor e o momento favor\u00e1vel dos ciclos de produ\u00e7\u00e3o nos hemisf\u00e9rios Norte e Sul.<\/p>\n

O coronav\u00edrus<\/a> a interrup\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 uma for\u00e7a avassaladora que afeta o trabalho, as tend\u00eancias de demanda, a log\u00edstica e o poder de compra de alimentos, ra\u00e7\u00f5es, fibras e combust\u00edveis do mundo. As ind\u00fastrias agr\u00edcolas t\u00eam tido sorte em compara\u00e7\u00e3o aos setores de hospitalidade e servi\u00e7os. O v\u00edrus atingiu o Hemisf\u00e9rio Sul durante a temporada de colheita, quando muito menos produtos est\u00e3o sendo aplicados. No norte, come\u00e7ou perto da temporada de plantio, o que significa que fazendeiros e varejistas j\u00e1 haviam comprado sementes, fertilizantes e insumos de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos suficientes para impulsionar a produ\u00e7\u00e3o durante o ver\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

Neg\u00f3cios relacionados \u00e0 agricultura foram considerados setores essenciais em todo o mundo, permitindo a continuidade das opera\u00e7\u00f5es, embora com menor capacidade em meio a interrup\u00e7\u00f5es trabalhistas e uma mudan\u00e7a nas perspectivas de demanda que poderia atrasar o impacto econ\u00f4mico sobre fornecedores e distribuidores em todo o mundo.<\/p>\n

Por enquanto, os dados s\u00e3o positivos: 66% de empresas dizem que atingiram ou excederam o or\u00e7amento no primeiro trimestre deste ano (Gr\u00e1fico 2<\/a>), o que \u00e9 consistente com o desempenho da empresa no Q1 de 2009 durante a Grande Recess\u00e3o, quando 69% de empresas atingiram ou excederam suas proje\u00e7\u00f5es de or\u00e7amento do Q1. Mas a incerteza exige precau\u00e7\u00e3o, e 45% de empresas revisaram seus or\u00e7amentos para o resto de 2020 para serem menores do que o esperado, novamente semelhante a 2009, quando 46% de empresas moderaram suas metas de vendas.<\/p>\n

Embora os n\u00fameros do primeiro trimestre n\u00e3o tenham sido afetados, parece haver uma boa dose de cautela para o resto do ano: 73% dos entrevistados est\u00e3o projetando que suas receitas ser\u00e3o iguais ou maiores do que no ano passado (Gr\u00e1fico 1<\/a>), em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com os 69% de empresas que projetaram receitas iguais ou maiores em 2009. Da mesma forma, as empresas est\u00e3o reduzindo sua produ\u00e7\u00e3o ou respondendo \u00e0 capacidade reduzida que foi necess\u00e1ria durante a escassez de trabalhadores em meio ao bloqueio: 28% dos entrevistados dizem que sua produ\u00e7\u00e3o em 2020 ser\u00e1 menor do que no ano passado, em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com 20% que planejaram uma produ\u00e7\u00e3o menor em 2009.<\/p>\n

Os sentimentos sobre a economia global s\u00e3o mais pessimistas do que as vis\u00f5es sobre o desempenho individual da empresa: 71% dos entrevistados dizem que a economia global vai piorar, e quase um quarto diz que espera que seja muito pior. Em 2009, apenas 29% dos entrevistados eram pessimistas sobre a economia global, e 33% eram neutros. O sentimento dom\u00e9stico n\u00e3o \u00e9 muito melhor: 66% dos entrevistados dizem que suas economias locais continuar\u00e3o a sofrer em 2020, enquanto apenas 18% dos entrevistados eram pessimistas sobre sua economia local em 2009, e 30% eram neutros.<\/p>\n

Mas a disparidade n\u00e3o \u00e9 surpreendente, pois em 2009 a economia global estava mostrando sinais de crescimento mais forte em compara\u00e7\u00e3o ao p\u00e9ssimo ano de 2008, enquanto a recess\u00e3o atual estava apenas come\u00e7ando quando os entrevistados responderam \u00e0 pesquisa deste ano.<\/p>\n

Fus\u00f5es, Aquisi\u00e7\u00f5es e Expans\u00e3o<\/h2>\n

A incerteza \u00e9 generalizada em 2020, mas as empresas parecem ter certeza de uma coisa: a consolida\u00e7\u00e3o pode esperar, por enquanto. Quase 75% dos entrevistados dizem que n\u00e3o buscar\u00e3o fazer nenhuma aquisi\u00e7\u00e3o este ano. Apenas 10% dizem que \u00e9 uma forte possibilidade ou certeza de que adquirir\u00e3o toda ou parte de outra empresa. Em 2010, sob press\u00f5es econ\u00f4micas semelhantes, 14% das empresas disseram que planejavam adquirir toda ou parte de outra empresa (Gr\u00e1fico 5<\/a>).<\/p>\n

O desenvolvimento de novos produtos parece n\u00e3o ser interrompido por fatores macroecon\u00f4micos (Gr\u00e1fico 6<\/a>): 60% dos entrevistados planejam desenvolver novas linhas de produtos este ano, a par dos 66% que disseram que fariam o mesmo em 2010 (Gr\u00e1fico 7<\/a>). Das empresas que est\u00e3o desenvolvendo novas linhas de produtos, os inseticidas lideraram todas as categorias de produtos, com 40% de empresas explorando planos de desenvolvimento, seguidos por pesticidas biol\u00f3gicos (38%), fungicidas (37%) e herbicidas. Quase 90% dos entrevistados dizem que est\u00e3o vendo um aumento na demanda por produtos biol\u00f3gicos, e 79% dizem que j\u00e1 t\u00eam alguns produtos biol\u00f3gicos em seu portf\u00f3lio ou est\u00e3o procurando ativamente (Gr\u00e1fico 8<\/a>). Os produtos biol\u00f3gicos s\u00e3o o segmento de insumos agr\u00edcolas que mais cresce, e 75% dos entrevistados atribuem isso \u00e0 demanda do consumidor por alimentos mais seguros, uma tend\u00eancia que est\u00e1 influenciando os modelos de produ\u00e7\u00e3o agr\u00edcola como nunca antes.<\/p>\n

Cadeias de Suprimentos, Trabalho e Automa\u00e7\u00e3o<\/h2>\n

As primeiras repercuss\u00f5es do coronav\u00edrus foram isoladas na cadeia de suprimentos no primeiro trimestre, em um momento em que as empresas j\u00e1 estavam focadas na integra\u00e7\u00e3o reversa e na entrega just-in-time. Essas estrat\u00e9gias de mitiga\u00e7\u00e3o de risco parecem estar acelerando e podem fazer parte do novo normal, \u00e0 medida que as empresas trabalham para se isolar da escassez de suprimentos, termos de pagamento arriscados e problemas de fluxo de caixa, ao mesmo tempo em que criam mais transpar\u00eancia e visibilidade de suas remessas.<\/p>\n

Apenas 23% dos entrevistados dizem que n\u00e3o est\u00e3o mudando sua estrat\u00e9gia de cadeia de suprimentos ap\u00f3s o coronav\u00edrus, e apenas 14% n\u00e3o esperam nenhuma mudan\u00e7a nos termos de compra (Gr\u00e1ficos 9<\/a> e 10<\/a>).<\/p>\n

A disponibilidade de m\u00e3o de obra foi outra ramifica\u00e7\u00e3o imediata dos bloqueios e trabalhadores doentes: 45% das empresas dizem que sua m\u00e3o de obra foi afetada por interrup\u00e7\u00f5es cont\u00ednuas e provavelmente continuar\u00e1 a operar em alguma forma de capacidade reduzida para cumprir com os requisitos de distanciamento f\u00edsico (Gr\u00e1fico 11<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Quase um ter\u00e7o dos entrevistados afirma que investir\u00e1 mais em automa\u00e7\u00e3o para ajudar a mitigar as interrup\u00e7\u00f5es trabalhistas no futuro (Gr\u00e1fico 12<\/a>) e outros 28% est\u00e3o analisando como a automa\u00e7\u00e3o pode ajudar seus neg\u00f3cios no futuro.<\/p>\n

Metodologia e Demografia<\/h2>\n

Agroneg\u00f3cio Global<\/em><\/a>A Pesquisa Anual sobre o Estado da Ind\u00fastria e o relat\u00f3rio especial da 's\u2122 oferecem aos leitores um instant\u00e2neo biogr\u00e1fico da sa\u00fade da ind\u00fastria e do sentimento das empresas que operam nela. A pesquisa foi elaborada por Agroneg\u00f3cio Global<\/em> editores e transmitidos para nossa base de assinantes de e-mail. Lembretes por e-mail foram enviados durante as quatro semanas em que a pesquisa esteve aberta, de 11 de maio a 8 de junho, e um incentivo foi oferecido para ganhar um vale-presente $100. A pesquisa foi feita por 133 entrevistados em 43 pa\u00edses, dando \u00e0 pesquisa uma margem de erro de \u00b18,44% com um n\u00edvel de confian\u00e7a de 95%.<\/p>\n

Os entrevistados da pesquisa representam principalmente fabricantes e formuladores de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos (55%), distribuidores e empresas de comercializa\u00e7\u00e3o (27%) e fornecedores e distribuidores de sa\u00fade vegetal (17%). Cerca de 42% n\u00e3o originam nenhuma mol\u00e9cula, e 30% n\u00e3o formulam nenhum produto, indicando que empresas de comercializa\u00e7\u00e3o e distribuidores n\u00e3o formuladores ainda representam uma parcela significativa da ind\u00fastria.<\/p>\n

Mais da metade das empresas respondentes (56%) tiveram receitas brutas de menos de $25 milh\u00f5es em 2019, o que \u00e9 consistente com os \u00faltimos 10 anos. No entanto, o n\u00famero de empresas que faturam mais de $250 milh\u00f5es (21%) dobrou desde 2009, ilustrando a consolida\u00e7\u00e3o entre as maiores empresas do setor.<\/p>\n

Da mesma forma, o n\u00famero de registros por empresa aumentou consideravelmente nos \u00faltimos 10 anos: 34% de empresas detinham pelo menos 50 registros de produtos em 2019, em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com 8% em 2009. Empresas com mais de 20 registros aumentaram para 54%, em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com 22% em 2010. O n\u00famero de empresas com zero registros de produtos tamb\u00e9m aumentou de 15% em 2010 para 23% este ano. Esses dados ilustram a consolida\u00e7\u00e3o entre empresas maiores e tamb\u00e9m a dificuldade de ambientes regulat\u00f3rios mais rigorosos e caros, for\u00e7ando uma parcela de empresas a abandonar estrat\u00e9gias de registro de produtos para se concentrar em neg\u00f3cios puros de importa\u00e7\u00e3o\/exporta\u00e7\u00e3o e distribui\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

Para quase 40% dos entrevistados, seus respectivos mercados dom\u00e9sticos representam pelo menos 75% de seus neg\u00f3cios; 29% dos entrevistados dependem dos mercados de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o para pelo menos 75% de seus neg\u00f3cios.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As receitas do primeiro trimestre foram boas, mas fornecedores e distribuidores se preparam para receitas menores e destrui\u00e7\u00e3o de demanda semelhante \u00e0 da Grande Recess\u00e3o. <\/p>","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":61058,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,1604,22,18,19,20],"tags":[1796,54,1460],"class_list":["post-66049","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-agtech","category-biopesticides","category-fungicides","category-herbicides","category-insecticides","tag-coronavirus","tag-featured-home","tag-state-of-the-industry"],"yoast_head":"\n2020 AgriBusiness Global State of the Industry: Coronavirus Creates New Normal for Purchasing Terms, Automation - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Q1 revenues were good, but suppliers and 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