{"id":66293,"date":"2020-08-31T08:26:43","date_gmt":"2020-08-31T12:26:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=66293"},"modified":"2020-08-31T08:32:16","modified_gmt":"2020-08-31T12:32:16","slug":"how-trade-coronavirus-and-consumer-demand-will-shape-food-distribution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/how-trade-coronavirus-and-consumer-demand-will-shape-food-distribution\/","title":{"rendered":"Como o com\u00e9rcio, o coronav\u00edrus e a demanda do consumidor moldar\u00e3o a distribui\u00e7\u00e3o de alimentos"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00c0 medida que os pa\u00edses continuam reabrindo ao redor do mundo, o setor agr\u00edcola est\u00e1 sentindo as consequ\u00eancias econ\u00f4micas mais vis\u00edveis e vitais.<\/p>\n

O distanciamento social for\u00e7ou uma mudan\u00e7a repentina para comida em casa em vez de comida fora. Surtos em f\u00e1bricas de embalagem e entre trabalhadores rurais, bem como restri\u00e7\u00f5es de viagens e com\u00e9rcio, arriscaram escassez de alimentos. A menor demanda por alguns produtos superou as restri\u00e7\u00f5es de oferta, levando a decl\u00ednios acentuados nos pre\u00e7os das commodities. A maior demanda por outros levou ao ac\u00famulo de estoques, deixando as prateleiras dos supermercados vazias.<\/p>\n

Por outras palavras, \u201cfoi um duplo golpe cl\u00e1ssico \u2014 um choque enorme tanto na oferta como na procura\u201d, afirma Jim Budzynski, diretor-geral da Parceiros MacroGain<\/a>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

A distribui\u00e7\u00e3o de alimentos pode ser alterada para sempre. Os pr\u00f3ximos meses revelar\u00e3o impactos econ\u00f4micos de curto prazo e fornecer\u00e3o pistas sobre o que a ind\u00fastria pode esperar a longo prazo.<\/p>\n

Redes de Distribui\u00e7\u00e3o Faltam Agilidade<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Antes COVID 19<\/a>, os americanos estavam gastando cerca de metade de seus or\u00e7amentos com alimentos e obtendo um ter\u00e7o de sua nutri\u00e7\u00e3o alimentar em refei\u00e7\u00f5es fora de casa, incluindo restaurantes, bem como refeit\u00f3rios no trabalho e na escola, de acordo com relat\u00f3rios do USDA.<\/p>\n

Quase da noite para o dia, a pandemia for\u00e7ou essa divis\u00e3o de 50-50 para quase 100% comendo em casa, explica Rob Dongoski, l\u00edder de agroneg\u00f3cios da Ernst & Young LLP.<\/p>\n

\u201cPor 30 anos, comer fora estava crescendo \u00e0s custas de comer em casa\u201d, diz Budzynski. Nos \u00faltimos 10 anos, o USDA mostra que comer fora estava consistentemente \u00e0 frente. \u201cIsso mudou em um instante, com aumentos massivos em jantares em casa e decl\u00ednios de mais de 80% na demanda por restaurantes.\u201d<\/p>\n

Na verdade, a ind\u00fastria de servi\u00e7os de alimenta\u00e7\u00e3o, avaliada em $300 bilh\u00f5es de d\u00f3lares, viu um decl\u00ednio nas vendas de 60% para 90% devido \u00e0 COVID-19, afirma Mark Allen, presidente-executivo da Associa\u00e7\u00e3o Internacional de Distribuidores de Servi\u00e7os Alimentares<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Restaurantes e outros fornecedores n\u00e3o aliment\u00edcios n\u00e3o conseguiram mudar instantaneamente do servi\u00e7o de alimenta\u00e7\u00e3o para o fornecimento ao consumidor.<\/p>\n

Embora as cadeias de suprimentos para varejo e servi\u00e7os de alimenta\u00e7\u00e3o sejam semelhantes, h\u00e1 grandes diferen\u00e7as, como rotulagem e dimensionamento.<\/p>\n

\u201cSe voc\u00ea tem milh\u00f5es de libras de batatas fritas em sacos de 30 libras para servi\u00e7os de alimenta\u00e7\u00e3o, voc\u00ea n\u00e3o pode simplesmente mudar para supermercados\u201d, acrescenta Budzynski. Pacotes de tamanho gigante enviados para restaurantes n\u00e3o s\u00e3o apropriados nem para lojas de dep\u00f3sito como a Costco.<\/p>\n

A demanda nos bancos de alimentos tamb\u00e9m disparou. Mas os restaurantes que n\u00e3o conseguiam vender seus suprimentos tamb\u00e9m n\u00e3o estavam preparados para distribuir para os bancos de alimentos, ent\u00e3o estoques de itens como alface foram desperdi\u00e7ados, diz Dongoski.<\/p>\n

\u201cO que est\u00e1 acontecendo mostra uma falta de agilidade em toda a rede de distribui\u00e7\u00e3o\u201d, explica Dongoski.<\/p>\n

O principal canal de distribui\u00e7\u00e3o, que tem sido longo em alimentos institucionais e curto em alimentos de marca de consumo, est\u00e1 lentamente come\u00e7ando a mudar, acrescenta Budzynski. \u201cEst\u00e1 lentamente come\u00e7ando a ser corrigido.\u201d<\/p>\n

Acelera\u00e7\u00e3o da Reconfigura\u00e7\u00e3o do Sistema Alimentar<\/strong><\/h2>\n

A \u00fanica coisa que n\u00e3o muda quando se trata de comida \u00e9 a previs\u00e3o macroecon\u00f4mica. Quando h\u00e1 mais pessoas, h\u00e1 mais comida consumida \u2014 nunca menos.<\/p>\n

Os tipos de alimentos que as pessoas consomem s\u00e3o o que causar\u00e1 altos e baixos em v\u00e1rios segmentos do mercado, como quando os consumidores mudam suas dietas.<\/p>\n

Mas o que mudar\u00e1 fundamentalmente em tudo isso \u00e9 a maneira como os alimentos ser\u00e3o distribu\u00eddos.<\/p>\n

Os consumidores t\u00eam o desejo de se aproximar dos produtores, ent\u00e3o os produtores est\u00e3o procurando maneiras de se aproximar deles. A cadeia de suprimentos \u00e9 uma rede complexa de n\u00f3s. O que estava acontecendo antes da pandemia \u00e9 um movimento em dire\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 redu\u00e7\u00e3o dos n\u00f3s e ao encurtamento da cadeia de suprimentos, explica Dongoski. \u201cOs consumidores querem comprar mais diretamente dos agricultores\u201d, ele diz.<\/p>\n

Mas isso j\u00e1 estava acontecendo lentamente. A COVID-19 apenas acelerou seu ritmo.<\/p>\n

\u201cH\u00e1 um romance e patriotismo em comprar localmente\u201d, explica Dongoski. \u201c\u00c9 uma tend\u00eancia acelerada que n\u00e3o acho que mudar\u00e1. N\u00e3o voltaremos a comer fora 50% novamente. As pessoas pretendem cozinhar mais comida em casa do que antes. Al\u00e9m disso, houve uma mudan\u00e7a constante para ingredientes mais naturais e frescos, como frutas e vegetais.\u201d<\/p>\n

Isso significa que os volumes nos per\u00edmetros dos supermercados ganhar\u00e3o import\u00e2ncia, prev\u00ea Dongoski.<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m das mudan\u00e7as nos h\u00e1bitos do consumidor, toda a cadeia alimentar global passar\u00e1 por um ajuste de v\u00e1rios anos \u2014 n\u00e3o apenas por causa da COVID-19, mas tamb\u00e9m pela intensifica\u00e7\u00e3o da guerra comercial com a China, prev\u00ea Budzynski.<\/p>\n

Todos os mercados s\u00e3o integrados. Com a economia chinesa contribuindo com 16% para o produto interno bruto global, qualquer choque que afete a China tem consequ\u00eancias muito maiores em todo o mundo.<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m disso, a pandemia abriu os olhos dos pa\u00edses para suas pr\u00f3prias fraquezas. Os pa\u00edses estar\u00e3o se perguntando se importar a maioria de seus alimentos \u00e9 a estrat\u00e9gia certa ou se devem aumentar a produ\u00e7\u00e3o para limitar sua exposi\u00e7\u00e3o. \u201cPor exemplo, os Emirados \u00c1rabes Unidos importam de 80% a 90% de seus alimentos\u201d, explica Budzynski. \u201cEles n\u00e3o t\u00eam terras f\u00e9rteis, mas t\u00eam acesso a recursos para produzir alimentos em ambientes fechados. Isso ter\u00e1 um impacto nos acordos comerciais e no sentimento nacional em torno do protecionismo.\u201d<\/p>\n

A longo prazo, acrescenta Budzynski, a agricultura dos EUA precisar\u00e1 migrar para fornecimento dom\u00e9stico alternativo e outros clientes globais.<\/p>\n

Impactos de curto prazo vs. longo prazo<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Economicamente, os impactos ser\u00e3o sentidos tanto no curto quanto no longo prazo devido \u00e0 luta constante entre oferta e demanda.<\/p>\n

Por exemplo, durante a pandemia, a demanda por muitos itens alimentares disparou, pois as pessoas se abrigaram em casa, mas a cadeia de suprimentos foi completamente interrompida, resultando em pre\u00e7os mais altos. \u201cMas se voc\u00ea tivesse algo para vender, como milho, a mesma interrup\u00e7\u00e3o da cadeia de suprimentos causou um excesso de oferta massivo e pre\u00e7os deprimidos\u201d, ressalta Budzynski. \u201cAl\u00e9m disso, o colapso do setor de energia colocou press\u00e3o descendente na demanda e nos pre\u00e7os do petr\u00f3leo, o que, \u00e9 claro, impactou negativamente o milho tamb\u00e9m.\u201d<\/p>\n

Cada setor est\u00e1 passando pelo que Dongoski chama de \u201cefeito gravata borboleta\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cNo centro da cadeia de valor, temos um ponto de estrangulamento\u201d, ele explica, usando a carne como exemplo. \u201cA ind\u00fastria da carne estava zumbindo e nem estava no radar no in\u00edcio da pandemia. Ent\u00e3o, os frigor\u00edficos fecharam e a oferta diminuiu conforme a demanda aumentou. E 65% de carne passam por cerca de 15 f\u00e1bricas. Ent\u00e3o, a ind\u00fastria \u00e0 esquerda \u00e9 restringida e ent\u00e3o ela atinge o n\u00f3 e fora do n\u00f3 h\u00e1 uma demanda enorme do outro lado. De um ponto de vista de longo prazo, temos que perguntar: 'Como desatamos esse n\u00f3?'\u201d<\/p>\n

Como a rede de suprimentos n\u00e3o \u00e9 \u00e1gil, esse n\u00f3 fica muito apertado e levar\u00e1 tempo para se desatar, diz Dongoski.<\/p>\n

Para desatar o n\u00f3, \u201creconfiguramos a ind\u00fastria para nos livrarmos de grandes bases de funcion\u00e1rios em 15 plantas ou impulsionamos a automa\u00e7\u00e3o para desenvolver ambientes de trabalho mais seguros?\u201d Dongoski continua. \u201cOu abordamos isso de um ponto de vista pol\u00edtico com incentivos fiscais e reembolsos ou deixamos o mercado ditar como isso acontece?\u201d<\/p>\n

Neste processo, \u201cvamos nos arrepender de ter tanto processamento em t\u00e3o poucas m\u00e3os\u201d, concorda Budzynski. \u201cAssim que o impacto imediato da COVID-19 nas opera\u00e7\u00f5es se dissipar, os processadores de carne ganhar\u00e3o muito dinheiro por um ou dois anos, pois seus clientes est\u00e3o dispostos a pagar mais e seus fornecedores (fazendeiros) v\u00e3o aceitar menos.<\/p>\n

\u201cOs clientes comprar\u00e3o freezers e estocar\u00e3o para o futuro\u201d, acrescenta ele, chamando essa de segunda onda da pandemia, que ele espera atingir no outono.<\/p>\n

Todos os especialistas concordam que os impactos de curto prazo ser\u00e3o mistos, dependendo das commodities e de como as cadeias de oferta e demanda evoluem.<\/p>\n

O longo prazo \u00e9 igualmente incerto, mas Budzynski prev\u00ea que \u201ctodos os pre\u00e7os das commodities aumentar\u00e3o drasticamente\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cCadeias de suprimentos longas e globais eram eficientes, mas fr\u00e1geis\u201d, ele acrescenta. \u201cCadeias de suprimentos mais curtas ser\u00e3o mais resilientes, mas mais caras. Em termos econ\u00f4micos, teremos defla\u00e7\u00e3o por um a dois anos, seguida de infla\u00e7\u00e3o.\u201d<\/p>\n

Seu conselho aos fornecedores e distribuidores agr\u00edcolas: \u201cPivote onde puder; corte custos onde n\u00e3o puder.\u201d<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tend\u00eancias emergentes afetar\u00e3o os sistemas de produ\u00e7\u00e3o de alimentos e a demanda por insumos agr\u00edcolas.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":60692,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,5],"tags":[54],"class_list":["post-66293","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-markets","tag-featured-home"],"yoast_head":"\nHow Trade, Coronavirus, and Consumer Demand Will Shape Food Distribution - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Emerging trends will affect food production systems and demand for crop inputs.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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