{"id":66449,"date":"2020-10-13T13:18:24","date_gmt":"2020-10-13T17:18:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=66449"},"modified":"2021-06-14T15:35:14","modified_gmt":"2021-06-14T19:35:14","slug":"india-a-bright-spot-in-a-sputtering-crop-protection-industry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/india-a-bright-spot-in-a-sputtering-crop-protection-industry\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00cdndia: Um ponto positivo em uma ind\u00fastria de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos em crise"},"content":{"rendered":"

N\u00fameros divulgados no in\u00edcio de julho de 2020 mostram que o mercado global de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos em 2019 aumentou em rela\u00e7\u00e3o a 2018 a uma taxa de apenas 0,72% em termos nominais de d\u00f3lares americanos.<\/p>\n

Embora permane\u00e7a positivo, \u00e9 um resultado decepcionante para um ano que come\u00e7ou t\u00e3o bem e quando comparado com o aumento de 2% visto em 2018 e 2017. Levando em conta esses crescimentos modestos, o mercado de produtos de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos em 2019 \u2014 quando medido no n\u00edvel ex-fabricante e usando taxas de c\u00e2mbio m\u00e9dias anuais \u2014 chega a US$ $55,65 bilh\u00f5es, enquanto em 2018 ficou em US$ $55,25 bilh\u00f5es.<\/p>\n

Mais uma vez, n\u00e3o \u00e9 a magnitude do crescimento que \u00e9 importante \u2014 afinal, um crescimento de 0,7% n\u00e3o \u00e9 \u201cnem aqui nem ali\u201d \u2014 mas o simples fato de que, dados todos os desafios enfrentados, houve algum crescimento. Esses desafios em 2019 inclu\u00edram as enchentes de primavera nos EUA, a press\u00e3o regulat\u00f3ria constante e a falha dos pre\u00e7os das commodities em se recuperar. 2020 tamb\u00e9m ter\u00e1 sua cota justa de desafios. As enchentes de primavera de 2019 foram substitu\u00eddas pelas do outono de 2020 na China. COVID 19<\/a> criou seu pr\u00f3prio conjunto \u00fanico de desafios, incluindo o impacto que teve nos movimentos cambiais globalmente. Os desafios regulat\u00f3rios tamb\u00e9m continuam, mas antes vistos como um problema da UE, agora s\u00e3o essencialmente globais. Brasil, M\u00e9xico, Tail\u00e2ndia, EUA e, claro, \u00cdndia, para listar alguns pa\u00edses onde a opini\u00e3o p\u00fablica claramente n\u00e3o contestada impulsiona as decis\u00f5es pol\u00edticas.<\/p>\n

Enquanto isso, a UE, para n\u00e3o ficar para tr\u00e1s nas apostas regulat\u00f3rias, apresentou a estrat\u00e9gia \u201cFarm to Fork\u201d, que entre outras metas visa ver uma redu\u00e7\u00e3o de 50% no \u201cuso e riscos\u201d de pesticidas at\u00e9 2030. Al\u00e9m da terminologia de \u201cuso e riscos\u201d ser especialmente vaga (mesmo para os padr\u00f5es da UE), h\u00e1 uma contradi\u00e7\u00e3o significativa entre a estrat\u00e9gia \u201cFarm to Fork\u201d e o objetivo pol\u00edtico abrangente do Acordo Verde da UE; que visa tornar a Europa Neutra em Carbono at\u00e9 2050. Como resposta a este e a outros desafios pol\u00edticos, sociais e regulat\u00f3rios, a ind\u00fastria precisa \u201cresistir \u00e0 tempestade\u201d e, ao mesmo tempo, apresentar \u201cuma mensagem unificada, forte e positiva\u201d sobre os benef\u00edcios da prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos tanto para a economia global quanto para a Pegada de Carbono Global.<\/p>\n

Ao procurar uma primeira mensagem positiva para a ind\u00fastria global de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos, n\u00e3o \u00e9 preciso ir al\u00e9m da \u00cdndia. A \u00cdndia \u00e9 frequentemente relatada como a economia \u201cmundial\u201d de crescimento mais r\u00e1pido e, mesmo levando em considera\u00e7\u00e3o o impacto significativo da COVID-19 na economia, os \u00faltimos n\u00fameros compar\u00e1veis do FMI mostram que a \u00cdndia desde 2020 ultrapassou em m\u00e9dia a economia mundial global em mais de 3 pontos percentuais em termos de crescimento anual do PIB (Figura 1;<\/a>\u00a0ver todas as figuras no slideshow acima).<\/p>\n

A mesma din\u00e2mica de crescimento pode ser considerada verdadeira para o mercado de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos na \u00cdndia. Embora a \u00cdndia n\u00e3o seja o mercado de crescimento mais r\u00e1pido nos \u00faltimos 10 anos (essa etiqueta em particular vai para a Rom\u00eania), a \u00cdndia \u00e9 o mercado de crescimento mais r\u00e1pido de tamanho significativo. Isso pode ser melhor visualizado com refer\u00eancia a Figura 2<\/a> e Figura 3<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Enquanto 9o<\/sup> a classifica\u00e7\u00e3o n\u00e3o \u00e9 necessariamente de primeira linha, o tamanho do mercado indiano (quinto maior do mundo), se levado em considera\u00e7\u00e3o, deixa claro que, assim como na economia geral, a \u00cdndia pode ser considerada o mercado global de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos de crescimento mais r\u00e1pido.<\/p>\n

A \u00cdndia, como a maioria dos mercados, sofreu um decl\u00ednio em 2009 como resultado da crise financeira, e depois novamente em 2015 \u2014 quando, entre outros fatores, ocorreu um decl\u00ednio acentuado nos pre\u00e7os das commodities. A \u00cdndia, no entanto, sofreu menos do que a maioria dos mercados e saiu desse decl\u00ednio de 2015 em 2016, em vez de 2017, uma prova da resili\u00eancia do mercado indiano (Figura 4<\/a>). Mais adiante, em 2018 e 2019, esse padr\u00e3o de crescimento continua, o que neste momento continua prov\u00e1vel para 2020.<\/p>\n

Que o mercado indiano est\u00e1 crescendo n\u00e3o h\u00e1 d\u00favidas quando olhamos para Figura 4<\/a>. No entanto, o quanto o mercado est\u00e1 se desenvolvendo \u00e9 uma quest\u00e3o mais desafiadora. Se olharmos para as divis\u00f5es entre os setores em 2019, mais da metade do mercado permanece como inseticidas. Os inseticidas cresceram a uma taxa de 8% por ano nos \u00faltimos 10 anos e, embora os herbicidas e fungicidas tenham crescido mais r\u00e1pido, n\u00e3o foi r\u00e1pido o suficiente para reduzir o dom\u00ednio dos inseticidas para menos de 50% (Figura 5<\/a>). Quando voc\u00ea considera o impacto de Bt<\/em> algod\u00e3o, reduzindo o potencial do mercado de inseticidas, \u00e9 surpreendente que os herbicidas e, em particular, os fungicidas de maior valor, n\u00e3o representem propor\u00e7\u00f5es maiores do mercado total.<\/p>\n

Se analisarmos os gastos com CP por grupos de culturas em 2019, descobriremos que o mercado \u00e9 dominado por arroz, outras F&H e algod\u00e3o, que coletivamente representam mais da metade do valor de mercado de CP (Figura 6<\/a>). Como medida de algum sucesso no desenvolvimento do mercado, os grupos de culturas de crescimento mais r\u00e1pido nos \u00faltimos 10 anos foram milho, soja e batata, embora sua participa\u00e7\u00e3o de mercado permane\u00e7a relativamente pequena, com menos de 4% cada. O dom\u00ednio reduzido do arroz em cerca de 29% do mercado em 2018 \u00e9 uma prova do sucesso dos \u201cprogramas de redu\u00e7\u00e3o de arroz\u201d, como foi visto em outros mercados asi\u00e1ticos.<\/p>\n

Perspectivas para 2020<\/h2>\n

A agricultura indiana e, por sua vez, o mercado de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos, depende fortemente da mon\u00e7\u00e3o do sudoeste. Sua chegada e distribui\u00e7\u00e3o espacial na esta\u00e7\u00e3o Kharif (de junho a outubro) decidem em grande parte o destino do mercado. Para a atual esta\u00e7\u00e3o Kharif de 2020, as chuvas de mon\u00e7\u00e3o foram inicialmente fortes, mas v\u00e1rios relat\u00f3rios sugerem que em agosto elas come\u00e7aram a crescer de forma um tanto desigual na distribui\u00e7\u00e3o, no que era um momento cr\u00edtico. Apesar disso, as estimativas do Minist\u00e9rio da Agricultura da \u00cdndia em 28 de agosto de 2020 eram de que a precipita\u00e7\u00e3o real geral recebida no per\u00edodo de junho a agosto era "normal" em 447,1 mm com distribui\u00e7\u00e3o "boa". Olhando para o futuro, o Departamento Meteorol\u00f3gico da \u00cdndia (IMD) emitiu recentemente sua previs\u00e3o de longo prazo para precipita\u00e7\u00e3o durante a segunda metade (agosto-setembro) da mon\u00e7\u00e3o do sudoeste de 2020 em uma estimativa de 104% da m\u00e9dia de longo per\u00edodo; ou em termos do IMD; normal.<\/p>\n

A \u00e1rea de plantio da safra Kharif 2020 tamb\u00e9m permanece bem \u00e0 frente daquela plantada em 2019 e at\u00e9 o final de julho, cerca de 88,2 milh\u00f5es de ha de terra foram semeados, cerca de 120% do que foi plantado em 2019. A semeadura de arroz aumentou 19% com o plantio de algod\u00e3o, 11,3%. A semeadura de leguminosas aumentou em 19,3% em compara\u00e7\u00e3o a 2019. A \u00e1rea de cereais grosseiros aumentou 6,5% com a \u00e1rea de milho, 2,4%. A \u00e1rea de oleaginosas aumentou em 16,8% e a \u00e1rea de soja aumentou em 8,2% para 11,64 milh\u00f5es de ha. Em suma, toda a safra Kharif 2020 est\u00e1 crescendo, com boas indica\u00e7\u00f5es de que a \u00e1rea de cultivo da temporada Rabi (de outubro de 2020 a mar\u00e7o de 2021) tamb\u00e9m ser\u00e1 maior devido \u00e0 boa disponibilidade de \u00e1gua e aos pre\u00e7os est\u00e1veis das commodities.<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m da mon\u00e7\u00e3o, a lagarta-do-cartucho do outono (Spodoptera frugiperda<\/em>) continua sendo um fator significativo na \u00cdndia, assim como os gafanhotos. Tanto as pragas de insetos quanto os crescentes desafios de resist\u00eancia dentro da popula\u00e7\u00e3o de ervas daninhas e o que deveria ser um ambiente favor\u00e1vel \u00e0 doen\u00e7a em uma \u00e1rea maior e alta precipita\u00e7\u00e3o pluviom\u00e9trica oferecem boas oportunidades para o restante da temporada de 2020. No balan\u00e7o, a \u201c\u00cdndia 2020\u201d deve ser t\u00e3o boa quanto, se n\u00e3o melhor, que a \u201c\u00cdndia 2019\u201d quando medida em termos de crescimento, mesmo levando em considera\u00e7\u00e3o o impacto negativo da COVID-19.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Na busca por uma primeira mensagem positiva para a ind\u00fastria global de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos, n\u00e3o \u00e9 preciso ir al\u00e9m da \u00cdndia.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":65947,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28,5,1846],"tags":[1796,54,1236],"class_list":["post-66449","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asia","category-markets","category-sustainability","tag-coronavirus","tag-featured-home","tag-india"],"yoast_head":"\nIndia: A Bright Spot in a Sputtering Crop Protection Industry - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In looking for a first positive message for the global crop protection industry one need to look no further than India.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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