{"id":66483,"date":"2020-10-06T09:46:35","date_gmt":"2020-10-06T13:46:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=66483"},"modified":"2020-10-27T11:03:58","modified_gmt":"2020-10-27T15:03:58","slug":"what-next-for-global-ag-economies-and-input-providers-after-covid-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/what-next-for-global-ag-economies-and-input-providers-after-covid-19\/","title":{"rendered":"O que vem por a\u00ed para as economias agr\u00edcolas globais e os fornecedores de insumos ap\u00f3s a COVID-19?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nota do editor: Kenneth Zuckerberg, economista s\u00eanior, estrategista corporativo e analista l\u00edder da ind\u00fastria do CoBank, discutiu como as economias agr\u00edcolas s\u00e3o mais interdependentes globalmente do que nunca na recente Cimeira Global de Com\u00e9rcio AgriBusiness<\/a>. Abaixo est\u00e1 um instant\u00e2neo dessa apresenta\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/em><\/p>\n

Cada era traz desafios, mas o fim da segunda d\u00e9cada do s\u00e9culo atual viu um n\u00famero sem precedentes de interrup\u00e7\u00f5es. O clima \u00e9 frequentemente um problema. Mas vamos adicionar a isso uma crise humanit\u00e1ria, consequ\u00eancias econ\u00f4micas das atuais condi\u00e7\u00f5es de mercado, influ\u00eancias sociopol\u00edticas e uma crise de sa\u00fade p\u00fablica para a qual a maior parte do mundo estava lamentavelmente despreparada.<\/p>\n

Kenneth Zuckerberg, economista s\u00eanior, estrategista corporativo e analista l\u00edder da ind\u00fastria do CoBank, apresentou algumas reflex\u00f5es sobre como ser\u00e1 a ind\u00fastria de insumos agr\u00edcolas dos EUA quando o pa\u00eds finalmente colocar em pr\u00e1tica o atual coronav\u00edrus<\/a> quest\u00e3o ficou para tr\u00e1s. Zuckerberg falou aos participantes do Agroneg\u00f3cio Global<\/em> O Trade Summit\u2122 foi realizado online no m\u00eas passado.<\/p>\n

A Situa\u00e7\u00e3o Atual<\/h2>\n

\u201cA resposta r\u00e1pida \u00e9 novos modelos e abordagens de neg\u00f3cios\u201d, diz Zuckerberg.<\/p>\n

Enquanto a maioria das pessoas compara a COVID-19 \u00e0 gripe espanhola que devastou o mundo h\u00e1 um s\u00e9culo, Zuckerberg a adiciona a uma lista de desastres econ\u00f4micos que influenciaram a vida ao longo dos anos 1900 e in\u00edcio dos anos 2000, fazendo refer\u00eancia \u00e0 crise de Wall Street, \u00e0 Grande Depress\u00e3o, ao Holocausto e \u00e0 Segunda Guerra Mundial, \u00e0s v\u00e1rias crises financeiras nas d\u00e9cadas de 1970, 1980 e 1990, \u00e0 crise agr\u00edcola dos EUA, ao 11 de setembro e, mais recentemente, \u00e0 crise das hipotecas subprime dos EUA de 2007-2010, que na verdade se espalhou e criou uma crise de cr\u00e9dito global.<\/p>\n

\"\"

Kenneth Zuckerberg, Economista S\u00eanior, Estrategista Corporativo e Analista L\u00edder da Ind\u00fastria, CoBank<\/p><\/div>\n

\u201cO choque econ\u00f4mico nas economias globais da COVID-19 n\u00e3o se parece com nenhum outro desses eventos\u201d, ele diz. \u201c\u00c9 maior e provavelmente ter\u00e1 uma dura\u00e7\u00e3o maior. Conforme preparamos o cen\u00e1rio, o ponto principal aqui \u00e9 que n\u00e3o \u00e9 apenas uma gripe e uma doen\u00e7a que muitas pessoas est\u00e3o ficando doentes e infelizmente morrendo; \u00e9 isso mais um grande choque nas economias globais.\u201d<\/p>\n

Os desafios econ\u00f4micos n\u00e3o terminam mesmo quando uma vacina segura e confi\u00e1vel \u00e9 desenvolvida, diz Zuckerberg. \u201cQuando pensamos sobre o que complica uma previs\u00e3o de recupera\u00e7\u00e3o e supera\u00e7\u00e3o disso, o recente pico de novos casos \u00e9 um fator cr\u00edtico que torna todas as previs\u00f5es muito dif\u00edceis de fazer.\u201d<\/p>\n

O efeito na renda agr\u00edcola<\/h2>\n

A COVID-19 teve um efeito enorme nas economias agr\u00edcolas dos EUA<\/p>\n

\u201cOs pre\u00e7os dos gr\u00e3os est\u00e3o bem abaixo do fundo, atingido no in\u00edcio desta primavera, mas permanecem fundamentalmente baixos\u201d, diz Zuckerberg. \u201cTanto os pre\u00e7os do milho quanto da soja est\u00e3o abaixo de suas tend\u00eancias de 3, 5 e 10 anos.\u201d<\/p>\n

Tirar os pagamentos do governo aos produtores sugere que a renda l\u00edquida agr\u00edcola dos EUA est\u00e1, na verdade, est\u00e1vel ou modestamente reduzida. Indo um passo al\u00e9m, Zuckerberg diz: \u201cReceitas de caixa da fazenda \u2014 elas est\u00e3o basicamente est\u00e1veis com os n\u00edveis de 2011, no entanto, as despesas de produ\u00e7\u00e3o agr\u00edcola aumentaram. Se as despesas estiverem acima das receitas de caixa, isso, por defini\u00e7\u00e3o, \u00e9 negativo para as margens. O que estamos vendo aqui \u00e9 que o maior neg\u00f3cio agr\u00edcola dos EUA, em m\u00e9dia, n\u00e3o ganha dinheiro h\u00e1 sete anos. Isso \u00e9 muito preocupante.\u201d<\/p>\n

O efeito sobre os insumos agr\u00edcolas<\/h2>\n

Os produtores s\u00e3o um grupo cauteloso e conservador. A redu\u00e7\u00e3o da renda agr\u00edcola certamente impactar\u00e1 a compra de insumos agr\u00edcolas. Al\u00e9m da pandemia, Zuckerberg lista uma s\u00e9rie de problemas que tamb\u00e9m afetar\u00e3o a ind\u00fastria:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • Mega-fus\u00f5es de 2014 a 2016<\/strong> \u2014 Elas eram de natureza defensiva e eram uma resposta \u00e0 cont\u00ednua comoditiza\u00e7\u00e3o dos insumos agr\u00edcolas e \u00e0 queda das margens de lucro.<\/li>\n
  • Excesso de produ\u00e7\u00e3o de milho vs. uso<\/strong> \u2014 A menor demanda futura por etanol tem amplas ramifica\u00e7\u00f5es na quantidade de milho que estamos produzindo em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com a quantidade que precisamos produzir.<\/li>\n
  • Peste Su\u00edna Africana<\/strong> \u2014 Uma redu\u00e7\u00e3o dr\u00e1stica no estoque de su\u00ednos chineses e incerteza cont\u00ednua sobre as necessidades de ra\u00e7\u00e3o animal devido ao fechamento de restaurantes e servi\u00e7os de alimenta\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/li>\n
  • Expans\u00e3o excessiva da capacidade de fertilizantes nos EUA<\/strong><\/li>\n
  • Tens\u00f5es comerciais<\/strong> \u2014 Disputas com v\u00e1rios grandes parceiros de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o agr\u00edcola.<\/li>\n
  • Perdas de participa\u00e7\u00e3o de mercado para Brasil, Argentina e Ucr\u00e2nia<\/strong> \u2014 Em v\u00e1rias commodities, incluindo soja, milho e trigo)<\/li>\n
  • Decis\u00f5es Regulat\u00f3rias<\/strong> \u2014 Recentemente, tivemos o acordo do glifosato, ap\u00f3s a\u00e7\u00f5es judiciais entre a Bayer e uma variedade de reclamantes dos EUA. Mais recentemente, tivemos algum alarde com o dicamba sendo chamado para uso restrito.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Margens de entrada em decl\u00ednio<\/h2>\n

    Zuckerberg faz uma pergunta simples: \u201cPor quanto tempo vamos ignorar o decl\u00ednio nas margens de fertilizantes e produtos qu\u00edmicos agr\u00edcolas?\u201d A resposta \u00e9 um pouco mais complicada.<\/p>\n

    Zuckerberg compartilhou dados de margem operacional com base nos dados de Lucros por A\u00e7\u00e3o (EPS) da Standards & Poor de 1995 e projetados at\u00e9 2021. As margens operacionais para fertilizantes e produtos qu\u00edmicos agr\u00edcolas atingiram o pico acima de 20% em 2009 e 2013. Essa mesma propor\u00e7\u00e3o est\u00e1 atualmente em cerca de 5%, ou como Zuckerberg coloca, "em um vale". \u00c9 um vale que provavelmente continuar\u00e1 devido ao excesso de oferta sobre a demanda e \u00e0 tecnologia de precis\u00e3o que busca otimizar (ou seja, reduzir) a quantidade de insumos aplicados em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao rendimento, diz Zuckerberg.<\/p>\n

    Com tantas pessoas se abrigando em casa, a demanda por etanol combust\u00edvel e produtos relacionados diminuiu muito, diz Zuckerberg.<\/p>\n

    \u201cEm termos simples, a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de etanol caiu 50% entre meados de mar\u00e7o e meados de abril e, embora tenha se recuperado um pouco, nossas estimativas e de v\u00e1rias empresas que acompanhamos e das quais somos clientes, estimamos que a recupera\u00e7\u00e3o e a demanda n\u00e3o atingir\u00e3o 100% nos pr\u00f3ximos anos\u201d, diz ele.<\/p>\n

    Oportunidades<\/h2>\n

    O choque econ\u00f4mico e a incerteza maior, mais forte o d\u00f3lar americano se torna, diz Zuckerberg. Claro, nesta era, at\u00e9 as boas not\u00edcias v\u00eam com uma ressalva.<\/p>\n

    \u201c\u00c9 bom ver um d\u00f3lar americano forte em uma manchete, mas um d\u00f3lar americano mais forte em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao real brasileiro e outras moedas torna as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es agr\u00edcolas dos EUA mais caras e diminui nossa vantagem competitiva\u201d, diz Zuckerberg. \u201cN\u00e3o \u00e9 de surpreender que tenhamos visto (um aumento) nas compras, especialmente pela China, de produtos do Brasil e de outros lugares.\u201d<\/p>\n

    E dependendo de qual lado da quest\u00e3o \u00e9 considerado, a recente onda de tecnologias disruptivas pode ser uma amea\u00e7a ou uma oportunidade.<\/p>\n

    \u201cVimos a FBN (Farmers Business Network) entrar no mundo agr\u00edcola tentando interromper a aquisi\u00e7\u00e3o de bens entre fazendeiro e fabricante\u201d, diz Zuckerberg. \u201cChegou a hora da inova\u00e7\u00e3o e da transforma\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

    \u201cAs empresas de insumos agr\u00edcolas t\u00eam a capacidade de realmente criar, entregar e capturar todo o valor que a tecnologia agr\u00edcola promete\u201d, ele continua. \u201cAt\u00e9 agora, n\u00e3o foi um divisor de \u00e1guas.\u201d<\/p>\n

    Adaptando-se \u00e0 mudan\u00e7a<\/h2>\n

    Zuckerberg sugere tr\u00eas etapas para se adaptar ao mundo p\u00f3s-COVID-19:<\/p>\n

    1. Fa\u00e7a a pergunta dif\u00edcil<\/strong>. O planejamento estrat\u00e9gico exige um alto n\u00edvel de intelig\u00eancia emocional e a coragem e convic\u00e7\u00e3o de fazer a pergunta dif\u00edcil: seu modelo de neg\u00f3cio abra\u00e7a o futuro ou defende o passado?<\/p>\n

    Zuckerberg faz refer\u00eancia a uma li\u00e7\u00e3o que aprendeu no in\u00edcio de sua carreira na ind\u00fastria de investimentos: Os quatro cavaleiros do sucesso ou fracasso empresarial \u2014 medo, gan\u00e2ncia, esperan\u00e7a e ignor\u00e2ncia. \u201cOs tr\u00eas primeiros s\u00e3o todos emocionais. A ignor\u00e2ncia n\u00e3o \u00e9. Mesmo se voc\u00ea corrigir a ignor\u00e2ncia, os outros tr\u00eas v\u00e3o te pegar todas as vezes. A condi\u00e7\u00e3o humana infelizmente nos leva a cometer erros repetidamente.\u201d<\/p>\n

    2. Pense em inova\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong>. Considere as estrat\u00e9gias que podem criar valor para o cliente. Isso pode envolver uma variedade de quest\u00f5es, do modelo de lucro aos seus processos, da estrutura ao servi\u00e7o, da marca ao engajamento do cliente.<\/p>\n

    \u201cSe seu produto se tornou mais comoditizado, ent\u00e3o o engajamento do cliente, o sucesso do cliente, as intera\u00e7\u00f5es distintas que voc\u00ea promove, como voc\u00ea fornece valor, aconselhamento e servi\u00e7o se tornam o produto\u201d, diz Zuckerberg. \u201cO produto \u2014 seja fertilizante, produtos qu\u00edmicos ou sementes \u2014 \u00e9 um facilitador para voc\u00ea trazer valor de servi\u00e7o, em oposi\u00e7\u00e3o ao contr\u00e1rio. \u00c9 uma maneira diferente de pensar sobre o neg\u00f3cio de como os insumos agr\u00edcolas t\u00eam sido tradicionalmente pensados, mas \u00e9 fundamental que a ind\u00fastria pense dessa forma.\u201d<\/p>\n

    3. Aja e evite a complac\u00eancia<\/strong>. Se n\u00e3o fizer isso, voc\u00ea acaba em uma lista de empresas muito grandes que falharam em faz\u00ea-lo e foram relegadas \u00e0 lata de lixo da hist\u00f3ria. A Kodak falhou em abra\u00e7ar a fotografia digital. A Sony (com seu Discman) perdeu para o iPod da Apple. A Sears e a Toys R Us n\u00e3o conseguiram responder \u00e0 Amazon. A Motorola e a Blackberry foram deixadas para tr\u00e1s pelos telefones da Apple e da Samsung. A Blockbuster desapareceu depois que a Netflix come\u00e7ou a oferecer um servi\u00e7o de streaming.<\/p>\n

    \u201cAqueles que esquecem os erros do passado est\u00e3o condenados a repeti-los\u201d, Zuckerberg cita o famoso ditado, e acrescenta: \u201cN\u00e3o fa\u00e7amos isso\u201d.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Kenneth Zuckerberg, do CoBank, forneceu insights sobre como as economias agr\u00edcolas est\u00e3o mais interdependentes globalmente do que nunca na recente C\u00fapula do Com\u00e9rcio.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":66487,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,1218,6],"tags":[1796],"class_list":["post-66483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-events","category-trade-summit","tag-coronavirus"],"yoast_head":"\nWhat's Next for Global Ag Economies and Input Providers After COVID-19? - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"CoBank\u2019s Kenneth Zuckerberg provided insight into how ag economies are more globally interdependent than ever at the recent Trade Summit.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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