{"id":66772,"date":"2020-12-15T14:20:39","date_gmt":"2020-12-15T19:20:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=66772"},"modified":"2021-05-24T14:52:35","modified_gmt":"2021-05-24T18:52:35","slug":"is-supply-chain-recovery-during-a-pandemic-possible-these-experts-say-it-is","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/is-supply-chain-recovery-during-a-pandemic-possible-these-experts-say-it-is\/","title":{"rendered":"A recupera\u00e7\u00e3o da cadeia de suprimentos durante uma pandemia \u00e9 poss\u00edvel? Esses especialistas dizem que sim"},"content":{"rendered":"

Poder-se-ia dizer que as cadeias de abastecimento globais nunca enfrentaram condi\u00e7\u00f5es t\u00e3o variadas e flutuantes como as que enfrentaram durante a COVID 19<\/a> pandemia.<\/p>\n

Mas esses choques \u2013 pense em furac\u00f5es, inunda\u00e7\u00f5es, inc\u00eandios e ataques cibern\u00e9ticos, para citar alguns \u2013 s\u00e3o na verdade mais frequentes do que voc\u00ea imagina.<\/p>\n

\u201cMesmo antes da COVID\u2026 em m\u00e9dia, as empresas agora esperam ver uma interrup\u00e7\u00e3o em suas linhas de produ\u00e7\u00e3o de um a dois meses, o que \u00e9 um per\u00edodo muito longo, a cada tr\u00eas anos e meio a quatro anos\u201d, explica Susan Lund, s\u00f3cia da Instituto Global McKinsey<\/a> em Washington, DC. \u201cEnt\u00e3o, embora cada vez que h\u00e1 um desastre, pare\u00e7a que ele vem do nada, o fato \u00e9 que o mundo tem mais choques.\u201d<\/p>\n

O que o coronav\u00edrus fez especificamente foi colocar um grande holofote no impacto que esses choques podem ter nas cadeias de suprimentos globais. No agroneg\u00f3cio, um choque grande o suficiente pode impactar toda a cadeia de valor porque a press\u00e3o sobre o fornecimento aumenta com o crescimento da demanda. \u201cPassamos 25 anos criando essas cadeias de suprimentos globais incrivelmente complicadas e complexas\u201d, diz Lund. \u201cE elas foram projetadas para custo e efici\u00eancia, mas sem realmente pensar no que poderia dar errado ao longo do caminho.\u201d<\/p>\n

O transporte mar\u00edtimo continua altamente imprevis\u00edvel<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Os altos e baixos s\u00e3o quase intermin\u00e1veis na \u00e1rea de transporte da cadeia de suprimentos. Na verdade, qualquer modelagem decente usada para entender o que est\u00e1 acontecendo \u2014 mesmo aquelas que s\u00e3o 95% confiantes \u2014 mostram uma varia\u00e7\u00e3o potencial enorme, explica Keith Holdsworth, um consultor s\u00eanior de cadeia de suprimentos baseado em West Oxfordshire, Inglaterra.<\/p>\n

O transporte mar\u00edtimo \u00e9 a \u00e1rea mais imprevis\u00edvel, diz Holdsworth, revisando as 13 rotas que est\u00e3o no \u00cdndice de frete em cont\u00eaineres de Xangai (SCFI)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Na verdade, a Perfection Limited, uma consultoria especializada em cadeia de suprimentos sediada em West Oxfordshire, Inglaterra, com a qual a Holdsworth trabalha, relatou que o SCFI atingiu uma alta hist\u00f3rica em 30 de outubro de 2020, atingindo uma marca nunca antes atingida de $1.600 por TEU (unidade equivalente a 20 p\u00e9s). \u201cTodas as rotas aumentaram, exceto Durban, e com v\u00e1rias transportadoras tamb\u00e9m anunciando aumentos gerais de tarifas em dezembro, ou disfar\u00e7ados na terminologia de sobretaxa de pedidos\u201d, compartilhou a empresa.<\/p>\n

Ent\u00e3o, apenas duas semanas depois, em 16 de novembro, a Perfection Limited relatou que o recorde foi quebrado novamente com $1.857,33 por TEU \u2013 o maior \u00edndice composto j\u00e1 visto. Todas as faixas registraram recordes que n\u00e3o viam desde que o \u00edndice come\u00e7ou em 2009.<\/p>\n

\u201cA arena do frete mar\u00edtimo \u00e9 um lugar tremendamente complicado agora, com espa\u00e7o limitado, escassez de cont\u00eaineres, congestionamento nos portos e falta de servi\u00e7o\u201d, relata a Perfection Limited. Isso se deve \u00e0s \u201ctransportadoras que ainda bloqueiam viagens, escassez de cont\u00eaineres vazios e taxas de congestionamento portu\u00e1rio sendo adicionadas a muitas rotas\u201d.<\/p>\n

A disponibilidade de cont\u00eaineres vazios est\u00e1 definitivamente distorcendo a capacidade e piorando ainda mais a variabilidade das remessas, diz Holdsworth.<\/p>\n

O CEO da Maersk, Soren Skou, relata que as taxas de frete mar\u00edtimo provavelmente atingiram um patamar e retornar\u00e3o aos n\u00edveis normais at\u00e9 o final de 2020. Mas Holdsworth j\u00e1 est\u00e1 vendo sinais de que entre agora e o final do ano, os pre\u00e7os n\u00e3o cair\u00e3o mais. "Minha previs\u00e3o \u00e9 que permanecer\u00e3o altos durante o Ano Novo Chin\u00eas", diz ele. Em 2021, o Ano Novo Chin\u00eas \u00e9 12 de fevereiro.<\/p>\n

A Maersk continua otimista em suas previs\u00f5es para 2021. \u201cAs cadeias de suprimentos globais tiveram muitos gargalos e eles aumentaram os pre\u00e7os\u201d, disse Skou em uma entrevista \u00e0 Bloomberg Television. Como resultado, os custos de frete permaneceram anormalmente altos, especialmente em rotas transpac\u00edficas. Mas \u201cacho que isso \u00e9 de natureza tempor\u00e1ria. Esperamos que as coisas se acalmem e se normalizem em 2021.\u201d<\/p>\n

A Maersk diz que seus volumes de cont\u00eaineres no quarto trimestre devem estar em linha ou um pouco melhores do que os n\u00edveis que a empresa viu em 2019. \u201cAcreditamos que em 2021 veremos um mercado semelhante ao que vimos em 2019 ou talvez um pouco melhor\u201d, compartilha Skou.<\/p>\n

Concentre-se no que voc\u00ea pode controlar<\/strong><\/h2>\n

O que aconteceu como resultado da pandemia do coronav\u00edrus mostra que, apesar de eventos semelhantes no passado, \u201ca abordagem de gerenciamento de risco da cadeia de suprimentos para eventos como pandemias \u00e9 altamente insatisfat\u00f3ria\u201d, explica Kumar Singh, fundador da Smart Supply Chains LLC. \u201cO principal motivador por tr\u00e1s disso \u00e9 o processo de pensamento de que tais eventos s\u00e3o raros.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mas, embora as empresas devam ter uma ideia de quais choques est\u00e3o por a\u00ed e o que pode acontecer, \u201cas empresas n\u00e3o devem se concentrar apenas no evento assustador \u2013 o furac\u00e3o, a pandemia, seja o que for \u2013 mas realmente se concentrar em suas vulnerabilidades\u201d, aponta Ed Barriball, um parceiro na linha de servi\u00e7o de Fabrica\u00e7\u00e3o e Cadeia de Suprimentos dentro da Pr\u00e1tica de Opera\u00e7\u00f5es, com sede em Washington, DC \u201cO que voc\u00ea controla? Onde voc\u00ea \u00e9 de fonte \u00fanica? Onde voc\u00ea n\u00e3o tem visibilidade em sua cadeia de suprimentos que deveria?\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201c\u00c0 medida que os incidentes de surtos de pandemia se tornam mais frequentes... as corpora\u00e7\u00f5es que fazem neg\u00f3cios globalmente precisar\u00e3o de melhor prepara\u00e7\u00e3o e treinamento para poderem implementar um plano rapidamente\u201d, concorda Singh.<\/p>\n

E cortar a China da cadeia de suprimentos n\u00e3o \u00e9 realmente um problema, pelo menos no curto prazo. \u201cNas \u00faltimas duas d\u00e9cadas, a China construiu um ecossistema de manufatura de OEMs e v\u00e1rios n\u00edveis de fornecedores\u201d, diz Singh. \u201cN\u00e3o \u00e9 f\u00e1cil replicar esse ecossistema rapidamente em qualquer outro lugar, ent\u00e3o provavelmente teremos que planejar as cadeias de suprimentos da China por enquanto. Se voc\u00ea remover certos elementos da manufatura para outro local, ou mesmo tiver um fornecedor reserva em outro pa\u00eds, \u00e9 prov\u00e1vel que o fornecedor ainda tenha seus fornecedores de segundo ou terceiro n\u00edvel na China. Pode levar d\u00e9cadas para construir uma cadeia de suprimentos de manufatura de ponta a ponta que n\u00e3o envolva a China.\u201d<\/p>\n

Singh sugere algumas estrat\u00e9gias: criar um centro de comando local de gerenciamento de crises, diversificar geograficamente sua presen\u00e7a nas opera\u00e7\u00f5es na China, investir em recursos digitais e criar relacionamentos estrat\u00e9gicos com provedores de log\u00edstica.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Espa\u00e7o limitado, escassez de cont\u00eaineres, congestionamento nos portos e falta de servi\u00e7o criam um ecossistema obscuro, mas resiliente. <\/p>","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":65762,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[554,54,1843],"class_list":["post-66772","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","tag-featured","tag-featured-home","tag-supply"],"yoast_head":"\nIs Supply Chain Recovery During a Pandemic Possible? 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