{"id":67261,"date":"2021-09-21T09:56:58","date_gmt":"2021-09-21T13:56:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=67261"},"modified":"2021-09-21T17:25:38","modified_gmt":"2021-09-21T21:25:38","slug":"how-the-14th-five-year-plan-will-reshape-the-chinese-agrochemical-industry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/how-the-14th-five-year-plan-will-reshape-the-chinese-agrochemical-industry\/","title":{"rendered":"Como o 14\u00ba Plano Quinquenal ir\u00e1 remodelar a ind\u00fastria agroqu\u00edmica chinesa"},"content":{"rendered":"

A China \u00e9 uma civiliza\u00e7\u00e3o \u00fanica que existe h\u00e1 cerca de 5.000 anos. O interessante \u00e9 que a China continuou a prosperar durante a exist\u00eancia de v\u00e1rios imp\u00e9rios pr\u00f3speros ao longo de sua longa hist\u00f3ria. Em \u201cThe Changing World Order\u201d por Ray Dalio, Co-Chief Investment Officer e Co-Presidente da Bridgewater Associates,<\/a> A hist\u00f3ria do crescimento da China \u00e9 detalhada a partir de uma vis\u00e3o ocidental. Dalio escreve: Os l\u00edderes chineses n\u00e3o apenas planejam e tentam implementar seus planos; eles definem m\u00e9tricas claras para julgar seu desempenho e alcan\u00e7am a maioria de seus objetivos.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Na cultura chinesa, constru\u00edmos uma infraestrutura de parcerias por muitas d\u00e9cadas para executar a estrat\u00e9gia com paci\u00eancia perseverante. Para proteger a prosperidade a longo prazo com benef\u00edcios para a maioria das pessoas, os ancestrais chineses criaram um sistema de autoexame que est\u00e1 oculto na filosofia e na linguagem chinesas. Ent\u00e3o, os chineses se concentram mais no pensamento interno do que no confronto e nas circunst\u00e2ncias.<\/p>\n

No in\u00edcio de 2021, a China est\u00e1 investigando o 14\u00ba Plano Quinquenal (FYP)<\/a> para a ind\u00fastria agroqu\u00edmica. A pol\u00edtica guiar\u00e1 toda a ind\u00fastria para avan\u00e7ar de 2021 a 2025. Os principais objetivos do 14\u00ba FYP ser\u00e3o alcan\u00e7ados at\u00e9 o final de 2025. Portanto, os princ\u00edpios b\u00e1sicos do 14\u00ba FYP para agroqu\u00edmicos podem ser uma diretriz para a futura coopera\u00e7\u00e3o com fornecedores chineses.<\/p>\n

Fus\u00f5es e aquisi\u00e7\u00f5es<\/strong><\/h2>\n

O n\u00famero de empresas na ind\u00fastria agroqu\u00edmica chinesa continuar\u00e1 a diminuir no 14\u00ba FYP. Novas fus\u00f5es e aquisi\u00e7\u00f5es provavelmente acontecer\u00e3o entre as 50 principais empresas agroqu\u00edmicas da China. Os grandes fabricantes usar\u00e3o seu capital para lan\u00e7ar os processos mais recentes para s\u00edntese de mol\u00e9culas. A crescente capacidade dos grandes fabricantes trar\u00e1 mais press\u00e3o sobre os produtores de m\u00e9dia e pequena escala com expectativas de que eles n\u00e3o ser\u00e3o capazes de competir. A expans\u00e3o pode minimizar o custo de produ\u00e7\u00e3o e maximizar a margem l\u00edquida de lucro. Ao controlar os recursos naturais e o fornecimento upstream, a ind\u00fastria agroqu\u00edmica chinesa ser\u00e1 remodelada e orientada para a inova\u00e7\u00e3o. Os fabricantes de m\u00e9dio porte podem sobreviver apenas pela diferencia\u00e7\u00e3o de seus portf\u00f3lios.<\/p>\n

Em 31 de mar\u00e7o de 2021, Comiss\u00e3o de Supervis\u00e3o e Administra\u00e7\u00e3o de Ativos do Conselho de Estado da China (SASAC)<\/a> anunciou oficialmente a fus\u00e3o e reorganiza\u00e7\u00e3o da SinoChem e da ChemChina. \u00c9 o primeiro caso de M&A para a ind\u00fastria qu\u00edmica chinesa, na qual os agroqu\u00edmicos s\u00e3o apenas uma parte de seus neg\u00f3cios. Isso impactar\u00e1 profundamente a ind\u00fastria de agroqu\u00edmicos da China, uma vez que a aloca\u00e7\u00e3o de recursos da ind\u00fastria ser\u00e1 reformulada. A aloca\u00e7\u00e3o de recursos upstream pressionar\u00e1 os fabricantes downstream a reorganizar o investimento no desenvolvimento do portf\u00f3lio. A fus\u00e3o tamb\u00e9m ter\u00e1 influ\u00eancia lenta e indireta nas cadeias de suprimentos das principais empresas multinacionais.<\/p>\n

Inova\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong><\/h2>\n

No 14\u00ba FYP, a China est\u00e1 visando controlar a capacidade crescente e focar na inova\u00e7\u00e3o. Os principais fabricantes n\u00e3o apenas desenvolver\u00e3o a efici\u00eancia da produ\u00e7\u00e3o, mas tamb\u00e9m controlar\u00e3o a impureza com economia de custos para ingredientes ativos gen\u00e9ricos. Por outro lado, os fabricantes chineses tamb\u00e9m se tornar\u00e3o mais competitivos em ingredientes ativos com expira\u00e7\u00f5es de patentes recentes. O novo capital que entra neste espa\u00e7o tem se concentrado em novas expira\u00e7\u00f5es de patentes por muitos anos. Al\u00e9m disso, a ind\u00fastria est\u00e1 focada no desenvolvimento de seus pr\u00f3prios ingredientes ativos patenteados, o que \u00e9 poss\u00edvel por meio do benchmarking das empresas agroqu\u00edmicas do Jap\u00e3o e da Coreia. Isso dar\u00e1 mais espa\u00e7o para os fabricantes chineses terem alian\u00e7as de terceiros com empresas multinacionais para complementar lacunas nos portf\u00f3lios das multinacionais. O CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) e o desenvolvimento de novas IAs patenteadas progredir\u00e3o nos pr\u00f3ximos cinco anos.<\/p>\n

Neutraliza\u00e7\u00e3o de Carbono e Sustentabilidade<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Desde os mandatos de prote\u00e7\u00e3o ambiental intensificados que come\u00e7aram em 2017, a capacidade agroqu\u00edmica da China continua a se mover para o noroeste e centro da China. H\u00e1 cerca de 93.000 Mt de capacidade de IA aumentando em Nei Meng Gu, 132.000 Mt de capacidade surgindo em NingXia e 27.000 Mt de crescimento de capacidade na prov\u00edncia de Hubei. A ind\u00fastria agroqu\u00edmica da China est\u00e1 enfrentando um grande desafio para equilibrar entre produ\u00e7\u00e3o de baixo custo e regulamenta\u00e7\u00f5es ambientais.<\/p>\n

Ao inovar os processos de s\u00edntese, as empresas chinesas poder\u00e3o expandir a margem l\u00edquida de IAs gen\u00e9ricos, aumentar o rendimento da s\u00edntese e controlar as principais impurezas.<\/p>\n

Isso favorecer\u00e1 as empresas maiores, j\u00e1 que a China deve atingir o pico de emiss\u00f5es de carbono at\u00e9 2030, com uma meta de neutralidade de carbono at\u00e9 2060. Somente fabricantes competitivos podem contribuir para essa meta. Ent\u00e3o, o fator impactar\u00e1 as fus\u00f5es e aquisi\u00e7\u00f5es da ind\u00fastria agroqu\u00edmica da China para atingir mais competitividade de mercado.<\/p>\n

Para usu\u00e1rios finais globais, a China tamb\u00e9m desenvolver\u00e1 formula\u00e7\u00f5es sustent\u00e1veis para agricultores enfrentarem os desafios das mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas e o impacto da pandemia. A nova formula\u00e7\u00e3o sustent\u00e1vel, como CS, OD, DF e DF, se tornar\u00e1 fundamental no fornecimento de solu\u00e7\u00f5es sustent\u00e1veis para agricultores em todo o mundo. Al\u00e9m disso, a entrega de produtos de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos por drones (UAS) com agricultura digital est\u00e1 se tornando mais difundida e fornecer\u00e1 op\u00e7\u00f5es para os agricultores atingirem a meta de neutraliza\u00e7\u00e3o de carbono.<\/p>\n

Essas tend\u00eancias nacionais certamente impactar\u00e3o a estrat\u00e9gia de sourcing da China. A din\u00e2mica entre oferta e demanda sempre impulsionar\u00e1 o desenvolvimento da ind\u00fastria. Para sourcing da China, a infraestrutura do l\u00edder agroqu\u00edmico decide o sucesso do gerenciamento da cadeia de suprimentos. Algumas empresas grandes e bem financiadas podem n\u00e3o ser adequadas para a estrat\u00e9gia de sourcing perfeitamente. Algumas empresas brilhantes podem ter um risco profundo, mesmo que sejam negociadas publicamente. Isso for\u00e7ar\u00e1 as empresas chinesas a cavar fundo em suas cadeias de suprimentos para escolher os melhores parceiros para que os benef\u00edcios possam ser percebidos para todas as empresas no canal. Essa maneira de fazer neg\u00f3cios baseada em relacionamento ser\u00e1 importante para os l\u00edderes chineses ajudarem a construir confian\u00e7a em suas organiza\u00e7\u00f5es.<\/p>\n

Atualmente, o modelo de alta produ\u00e7\u00e3o\/baseado em pre\u00e7o ainda domina a China, e o alto estoque no mercado agroqu\u00edmico chin\u00eas est\u00e1 deixando os pre\u00e7os mais fracos do que os fabricantes esperavam. Tend\u00eancias de pre\u00e7os mais altos podem perturbar a estrat\u00e9gia de compra do comprador. A press\u00e3o dos altos pre\u00e7os de mat\u00e9ria-prima ainda existe, aumentando o custo de produ\u00e7\u00e3o enquanto altos estoques est\u00e3o come\u00e7ando a deflacionar os pre\u00e7os de alguns IAs.<\/p>\n

Isso est\u00e1 acontecendo at\u00e9 certo ponto com triaz\u00f3is. A demanda por azoxistrobina parece fraca e, combinada com uma oferta forte, est\u00e1 empurrando os pre\u00e7os para baixo. A maioria dos pre\u00e7os de fungicidas est\u00e1 come\u00e7ando a diminuir desde mar\u00e7o. Tamb\u00e9m \u00e9 por causa do momento da aplica\u00e7\u00e3o de agroqu\u00edmicos no Hemisf\u00e9rio Norte. A partir de maio de 2021, a demanda da LATAM influenciar\u00e1 o mercado, e os pre\u00e7os dos principais fungicidas em culturas de campo podem ter chance de aumentar durante o 3T de 2021.<\/p>\n

Espera-se que os pre\u00e7os do glifosato sejam altos em 2021. Devido ao pre\u00e7o mais alto da mat\u00e9ria-prima de produtos qu\u00edmicos b\u00e1sicos, o glifosato ter\u00e1 um pre\u00e7o est\u00e1vel mais alto do que em 2020. Mas o alto pre\u00e7o EXW, que inclui custos de transporte, pode prejudicar o consumo no mercado final. O glufosinato \u00e9 um caso t\u00edpico em que o pre\u00e7o alto pode restringir a demanda. \u00c9 obviamente uma lei b\u00e1sica da economia sobre pre\u00e7o e demanda.<\/p>\n

Devido ao alto custo da mat\u00e9ria-prima, os neonicotinoides atingiram o alto n\u00edvel de pre\u00e7os em fevereiro, e o pre\u00e7o atingiu o ponto mais alto em mar\u00e7o de 2021. Em mar\u00e7o, a maioria dos pre\u00e7os de inseticidas estava relativamente est\u00e1vel devido ao alto pre\u00e7o est\u00e1vel de produtos qu\u00edmicos b\u00e1sicos. A demanda do mercado global afeta a cota\u00e7\u00e3o dos principais fornecedores de inseticidas, j\u00e1 que a obten\u00e7\u00e3o de pedidos \u00e9 importante durante a esta\u00e7\u00e3o fria. A flutua\u00e7\u00e3o da taxa de c\u00e2mbio tamb\u00e9m \u00e9 um fator que afetar\u00e1 alguns pre\u00e7os de inseticidas.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P&D e inova\u00e7\u00e3o ter\u00e3o prioridade sobre a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de baixo custo, \u00e0 medida que fus\u00f5es e aquisi\u00e7\u00f5es continuam a criar empresas mais sofisticadas.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":67003,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,28,1846],"tags":[54],"class_list":["post-67261","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-asia","category-sustainability","tag-featured-home"],"yoast_head":"\nHow the 14th Five-Year Plan Will Reshape the Chinese Agrochemical Industry - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"R&D and innovation will be prioritized over low-cost production as mergers and acquisitions continue to create more sophisticated enterprises.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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