{"id":67381,"date":"2021-05-11T14:47:56","date_gmt":"2021-05-11T18:47:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=67381"},"modified":"2021-05-24T14:52:41","modified_gmt":"2021-05-24T18:52:41","slug":"china-price-index-is-glyphosate-market-at-a-tipping-point-with-continued-high-pricing-levels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/china-price-index-is-glyphosate-market-at-a-tipping-point-with-continued-high-pricing-levels\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00cdndice de pre\u00e7os da China: o mercado de glifosato est\u00e1 em um ponto cr\u00edtico com altos n\u00edveis de pre\u00e7os cont\u00ednuos?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nota do editor: O escritor colaborador David Li oferece um instant\u00e2neo das tend\u00eancias atuais de pre\u00e7os dos principais herbicidas, fungicidas e inseticidas no mercado agroqu\u00edmico chin\u00eas em seu boletim mensal \u00cdndice de pre\u00e7os da China<\/a> acima. Abaixo, ele fornece insights sobre os principais fatores que levaram o mercado de glifosato a um potencial ponto de inflex\u00e3o.<\/em><\/p>\n

O mercado de glifosato n\u00e3o viu um n\u00edvel de pre\u00e7os t\u00e3o alto nos \u00faltimos tr\u00eas anos. De acordo com nosso monitoramento, o pre\u00e7o EXW do glifosato AI deve atingir at\u00e9 6,2-6,9 USD\/Kg em maio. No final de abril, o pre\u00e7o EXW do glifosato 95% AI estava em torno de 5,56 USD\/Kg. E o prazo de entrega do glifosato dos principais fornecedores na China foi adiado para outubro de 2021.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Em 2020, o Inunda\u00e7\u00e3o de Sichuan<\/a> atingiu a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de glifosato da Fuhua. A partir de agosto de 2020, o pre\u00e7o do AI do glifosato subiu passo a passo. A suspens\u00e3o da produ\u00e7\u00e3o de glifosato da Fuhua causou uma lacuna significativa no fornecimento, cujo impacto tem sido consistente em 2021.<\/p>\n

Em 2021, o impacto no fornecimento de glifosato n\u00e3o diminuiu. At\u00e9 60% de fornecedores de PIMIDA est\u00e3o localizados na prov\u00edncia de Hebei e na prov\u00edncia de Shandong. E 34% da capacidade de PIMIDA da China est\u00e1 em Hebei, onde a pandemia de COVID-19 estava sob controle pelo governo local no in\u00edcio de 2021. A interrup\u00e7\u00e3o repentina do fornecimento de PIMIDA quebrou o equil\u00edbrio da demanda por fabricantes de glifosato.<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m disso, houve o impacto do congelamento profundo que atingiu o Texas, nos EUA, em 14 de fevereiro de 2021. O clima extremamente frio impactou principalmente a instrumenta\u00e7\u00e3o que monitora e opera unidades de processo. O congelamento interrompeu a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de g\u00e1s natural e os gasodutos. Ap\u00f3s o congelamento profundo, a mat\u00e9ria-prima de produtos qu\u00edmicos continuou aumentando nos mercados dos EUA e da China.<\/p>\n

O aumento do pre\u00e7o das principais mat\u00e9rias-primas do glifosato, como o f\u00f3sforo amarelo, reduziu a margem de lucro do glifosato. Ent\u00e3o, novos contratos tiveram que enfrentar o \u201cnovo\u201d custo da produ\u00e7\u00e3o de glifosato, que foi impulsionado pelo status de produ\u00e7\u00e3o limitada. Enquanto isso, a demanda dom\u00e9stica da China por glifosato tamb\u00e9m est\u00e1 elevando o pre\u00e7o. A temporada dom\u00e9stica normalmente come\u00e7a de novembro a maio anualmente.<\/p>\n

Olhando para o futuro, a demanda da LATAM deve ser principalmente em setembro. Ainda haver\u00e1 grande incerteza sobre o qu\u00e3o alto o pre\u00e7o do glifosato ir\u00e1 at\u00e9 o final de 2021. O que temos certeza \u00e9 que o pre\u00e7o do glifosato continuar\u00e1 aumentando em maio de uma perspectiva de curto prazo. Embora a demanda inicial para controlar o lead time tenha chegado \u00e0 China no primeiro trimestre de 2021. Quando o outono chegar, a LATAM pode aumentar drasticamente a demanda por glifosato. O pre\u00e7o do glifosato voltar\u00e1 ao mesmo n\u00edvel do ano de 2008? Parece que o entusiasmo do mercado em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao "glifosato louco" est\u00e1 aumentando, ent\u00e3o o mercado est\u00e1 esperando por um ponto de inflex\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

A ind\u00fastria agroqu\u00edmica est\u00e1 contando com recursos naturais como petr\u00f3leo bruto, gasolina e recursos minerais, j\u00e1 que todos eles contribuem para a economia de custos. As empresas multinacionais precisam controlar o upstream. Especialmente durante o per\u00edodo p\u00f3s-COVID19, a escassez global de produ\u00e7\u00e3o continua empurrando o salto de demanda para a cadeia de suprimentos da China.<\/p>\n

Em abril de 2021, Grupo Syngenta China<\/a> anunciou a colabora\u00e7\u00e3o estrat\u00e9gica com Grupo de produtos qu\u00edmicos Hubei Xingfa<\/a> oficialmente. As principais vantagens da Xingfa s\u00e3o os recursos de fosfato na China. A reserva de fosfato da Xingfa \u00e9 de 446 milh\u00f5es de Mt. A colabora\u00e7\u00e3o agregaria a cadeia de valor da ind\u00fastria de glifosato, da mat\u00e9ria-prima ao downstream. Ela fornecer\u00e1 ao Syngenta Group China mais competitividade no fornecimento de IA gen\u00e9rica essencial da China. O impacto pode ser um jogo de soma zero. A colabora\u00e7\u00e3o no fornecimento de glifosato tamb\u00e9m deve espremer a competitividade da cadeia de suprimentos de outras empresas multinacionais. O suporte \u00e0 Syngenta se tornar\u00e1 uma prioridade da capacidade da Xingfa.<\/p>\n

O aumento do pre\u00e7o da mat\u00e9ria-prima interage com a escassez de oferta de commodities. E o QE (flexibiliza\u00e7\u00e3o quantitativa) pode se tornar o maior risco para a economia global, o que proporcionaria uma ilus\u00e3o de recupera\u00e7\u00e3o econ\u00f4mica r\u00e1pida. O pre\u00e7o atual da soja em 5 de maio de 2021 \u00e9 $15,42 por bushel. Mas o pre\u00e7o da soja estava em torno de $9 por bushel durante o pr\u00e9-COVID19 em 2019. A mudan\u00e7a do pre\u00e7o da soja estava crescendo 67% durante os \u00faltimos dois anos. Por outro lado, o pre\u00e7o do glifosato tem aumentado em torno de 87%. O risco de infla\u00e7\u00e3o est\u00e1 surgindo gradualmente em 2021.<\/p>\n

Os gr\u00e1ficos de financiamento de muitas empresas agroqu\u00edmicas est\u00e3o muito fortes no primeiro trimestre de 2021. Mas o pensamento racional sobre o controle de risco ser\u00e1 cr\u00edtico quando escolhermos o momento certo e o n\u00edvel de pre\u00e7o para comprar agroqu\u00edmicos essenciais para economizar custos e manter o prazo de entrega.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O pre\u00e7o do glifosato retornar\u00e1 aos mesmos n\u00edveis dram\u00e1ticos vistos pela \u00faltima vez em 2008? E o que isso significar\u00e1 para a cadeia de suprimentos? <\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":67003,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"China Price Index: Is Glyphosate Market at a Tipping Point with Continued High Pricing Levels?","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4,28,19],"tags":[1058,1836,54,170,1843],"class_list":["post-67381","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-asia","category-herbicides","tag-china","tag-china-price-index","tag-featured-home","tag-glyphosate","tag-supply"],"yoast_head":"\nChina Price Index: Is Glyphosate Market at a Tipping Point with Continued High Pricing Levels? - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Will the price of glyphosate return to the same dramatic levels last seen in 2008? 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