{"id":67498,"date":"2021-06-08T12:24:29","date_gmt":"2021-06-08T16:24:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=67498"},"modified":"2021-07-08T19:13:38","modified_gmt":"2021-07-08T23:13:38","slug":"planting-intentions-u-s-china-relationship-among-key-factors-driving-north-american-crop-protection-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/planting-intentions-u-s-china-relationship-among-key-factors-driving-north-american-crop-protection-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Inten\u00e7\u00f5es de plantio e relacionamento EUA-China est\u00e3o entre os principais fatores que impulsionam o mercado de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos da Am\u00e9rica do Norte"},"content":{"rendered":"

No \u00faltima perspectiva para o mercado norte-americano em outubro de 2020<\/a>, o sentimento subjacente era de uma recupera\u00e7\u00e3o da campanha de 2019 atingida pela enchente, mesmo que essa recupera\u00e7\u00e3o tenha sido ressalvada com alguma cautela. Essa cautela girava principalmente em torno das elei\u00e7\u00f5es iminentes nos EUA naquela \u00e9poca, preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es cont\u00ednuas com o acordo comercial China\/EUA, o Programa de Facilita\u00e7\u00e3o de Mercado e a resposta fiscal geral \u00e0 COVID-19, prov\u00e1vel renda agr\u00edcola l\u00edquida final, o impacto total do derecho e os "estoques finais" consistentemente reduzidos de milho e soja, conforme relatado pela WASDE. O Canad\u00e1, por sua vez, foi assolado por problemas comerciais cont\u00ednuos com a China, de modo que a perspectiva para o mercado norte-americano final de 2020 naquela \u00e9poca dependia de alguma previs\u00e3o de bola de cristal.<\/p>\n

Muitas das inc\u00f3gnitas do ano passado foram resolvidas. O resultado da elei\u00e7\u00e3o de 2020 dos EUA em favor dos democratas \u00e9 um resultado claro. A China tamb\u00e9m manteve o curso em seu compromisso com o Acordo Comercial Fase 1<\/a> ao longo de 2020, com a China a comprar aos EUA cerca de $27,3 mil milh\u00f5es de d\u00f3lares em produtos agr\u00edcolas, de acordo com o Instituto Peterson de Economia Internacional.<\/a> Embora tenha sido um aumento significativo em rela\u00e7\u00e3o a 2019, essas compras representaram apenas cerca de 82% do compromisso inicial da China de comprar $33,4 bilh\u00f5es de produtos agr\u00edcolas em 2020. Dados os desafios trazidos pela COVID-19 naquela \u00e9poca, 82% da meta deve, no entanto, ser considerada uma hist\u00f3ria de sucesso, pois ainda permite que o governo Biden se concentre no relacionamento EUA\/China a partir de uma suposta "posi\u00e7\u00e3o de for\u00e7a" no futuro.<\/p>\n

O Pandemia do covid-19<\/a> tamb\u00e9m amea\u00e7ou a renda l\u00edquida da fazenda em 2020, embora uma alta tardia nos pre\u00e7os das commodities, bem como pagamentos federais adicionais (que geraram perto de 40% dessa renda) significassem que a renda l\u00edquida final da fazenda realmente melhorou significativamente para $121,2 bilh\u00f5es em 2020. Uma incerteza adicional em outubro de 2020 foi o impacto total do derecho de agosto, que agora \u00e9 considerado como tendo impactado 850.000 acres de planta\u00e7\u00f5es, cerca de 50% a mais do que o estimado originalmente. Esse impacto do derecho, juntamente com um aumento significativo na demanda da China no quarto trimestre, elevou significativamente os pre\u00e7os das commodities, com os pre\u00e7os do milho atingindo uma alta de seis anos em perto de $5 por bushel em dezembro de 2020 e com a soja atingindo mais de $10 por bushel, o melhor desde 2007.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Observa\u00e7\u00e3o:<\/strong> Os dados s\u00e3o apresentados em termos nominais e expressos em base pr\u00f3-forma (quando poss\u00edvel).<\/em>
Fonte:<\/strong> Relat\u00f3rios da empresa e estimativas da Kynetec Ag Market Insights.<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

Embora os pain\u00e9is do Kynetec End User de 2020 tenham sido finalizados no momento da reda\u00e7\u00e3o, os dados ainda n\u00e3o foram compilados em um n\u00edvel ex-empresa, pois esses c\u00e1lculos finais n\u00e3o ocorrer\u00e3o antes de junho. No entanto, com a publica\u00e7\u00e3o de Syngenta<\/a>Os resultados de 2020 da em 31 de mar\u00e7o, os dados da empresa agora est\u00e3o dispon\u00edveis e s\u00e3o compar\u00e1veis para todas as multinacionais, conforme ilustrado na Figura 1. Embora a Figura 1 apresente as vendas globais de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos, a maioria das empresas tamb\u00e9m relata as vendas para a Am\u00e9rica do Norte, que podem ser amplamente comparadas entre si. Com base nisso, Corteva<\/a> relatou +8% para o mercado norte-americano de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos, enquanto FMC<\/a> viu a tend\u00eancia oposta em -8%. A Syngenta relatou um +5% positivo, enquanto Ci\u00eancia de culturas da Bayer<\/a>, Solu\u00e7\u00f5es Agr\u00edcolas BASF<\/a>, e ADAMA<\/a> todos relataram menores taxas de crescimento negativo para a regi\u00e3o. No balan\u00e7o, a soma das vendas das principais empresas indicaria um resultado est\u00e1vel a ligeiramente positivo para o mercado de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos da Am\u00e9rica do Norte em 2020, pelo menos para as principais empresas.<\/p>\n

Perspectivas dos EUA para 2021\/2022<\/h2>\n

Embora esses resultados principalmente positivos indiquem um quadro cada vez melhor para o mercado final de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos da Am\u00e9rica do Norte em 2020, a perspectiva para 2021 \u00e9 menos robusta. O USDA atualmente previs\u00e3o de que a renda agr\u00edcola l\u00edquida em 2021<\/a> cair\u00e1 em cerca de 8% ano a ano para $111,4 bilh\u00f5es, embora permane\u00e7a forte pelos padr\u00f5es hist\u00f3ricos. Crucialmente, no entanto, ser\u00e1 impulsionado pelos altos pre\u00e7os das commodities em vez dos pagamentos federais, que apoiaram as campanhas de 2019 e 2020. Atingir esses altos pre\u00e7os das commodities impulsionaria o mercado de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos de 2021, mas esse resultado depende de v\u00e1rios fatores-chave e principalmente do equil\u00edbrio entre demanda e oferta:<\/p>\n

Demanda:<\/strong> O mais recente Relat\u00f3rio WASDE<\/a> prev\u00ea que o pre\u00e7o m\u00e9dio da soja na temporada atingir\u00e1 $11,15\/bu; o trigo atingir\u00e1 uma m\u00e9dia de $5\/bu, e o milho se manter\u00e1 em uma m\u00e9dia de $4,3\/bu. Em tais n\u00edveis, todas as tr\u00eas commodities est\u00e3o se aproximando de recordes. Grande parte da melhora prevista depende, no entanto, da demanda \u2014 e em particular da demanda da China. Os \u00faltimos n\u00fameros de perspectivas comerciais do USDA preveem que a China comprar\u00e1 cerca de $31,5 bilh\u00f5es de produtos agr\u00edcolas dos EUA em 2021, representando um significativo 22% do total de exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de produtos agr\u00edcolas do pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Fonte: ERS, USDA: As compras de produtos agr\u00edcolas dos EUA s\u00e3o estimadas para a China em $ 31,5 bilh\u00f5es, em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com o pr\u00f3ximo maior mercado do Canad\u00e1 em apenas $21 bilh\u00f5es. Exporta\u00e7\u00f5es totais de produtos agr\u00edcolas estimadas em $138 bilh\u00f5es<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

Al\u00e9m da perspectiva comercial do USDA de $31,5 bilh\u00f5es, a China est\u00e1 comprometida em comprar cerca de $40,4 bilh\u00f5es em 2021 no segundo ano do Acordo Comercial da Fase 1. Como em 2020, no entanto, \u00e9 improv\u00e1vel que esse valor de $40,4 bilh\u00f5es seja atingido integralmente. Um indicativo disso \u00e9 que at\u00e9 fevereiro de 2021, as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de $5,8 bilh\u00f5es j\u00e1 ficaram aqu\u00e9m da meta de $8,1 bilh\u00f5es. Embora ainda n\u00e3o seja motivo de preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o, a ocorr\u00eancia cada vez maior de Peste Su\u00edna Africana (PSA) no rebanho su\u00edno chin\u00eas, bem como a pandemia de COVID-19 em andamento globalmente, s\u00e3o todos fatores externos que desafiar\u00e3o a capacidade da China de cumprir essa obriga\u00e7\u00e3o. As rela\u00e7\u00f5es EUA-China tamb\u00e9m est\u00e3o, no momento em que este artigo foi escrito, sob extrema press\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

Fornecer<\/strong>: As infames enchentes de primavera do Centro-Oeste dos EUA de 2019 atingiram seu pico em meados de mar\u00e7o daquele ano e, embora essa data hist\u00f3rica tenha acabado de passar em 2021, a atual fase La Ni\u00f1a do clima global ainda tem o potencial de interromper as inten\u00e7\u00f5es de plantio, mesmo no Hemisf\u00e9rio Norte. Descontando complica\u00e7\u00f5es clim\u00e1ticas severas, no entanto, todas as indica\u00e7\u00f5es s\u00e3o de um aumento significativo na \u00e1rea plantada nos EUA para as principais safras em linha de 2021.<\/p>\n

Num ano normal, os n\u00fameros da Pesquisa de inten\u00e7\u00f5es de plantio do USDA<\/a> lan\u00e7ado em 31 de mar\u00e7o de 2021 seria o ponto de refer\u00eancia de refer\u00eancia que moldar\u00e1 os pre\u00e7os das commodities para o pr\u00f3ximo ano de comercializa\u00e7\u00e3o. O ano de 2021, no entanto, n\u00e3o \u00e9 um ano normal e, embora muita \u00eanfase tenha sido colocada nas estimativas de plantio do F\u00f3rum de Perspectivas Agr\u00edcolas do USDA 2021 realizado em meados de fevereiro, outras estimativas foram divulgadas desde ent\u00e3o, sugerindo uma mudan\u00e7a ainda maior de volta ao milho do que o esperado inicialmente. O milho, apesar dos pre\u00e7os n\u00e3o terem subido tanto quanto a soja, \u00e9 considerado por muitos produtores como a op\u00e7\u00e3o mais segura, dados os requisitos de rota\u00e7\u00e3o de culturas, considera\u00e7\u00f5es sobre a sa\u00fade do solo, forte demanda de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o, mesmo depois de levar em considera\u00e7\u00e3o as rela\u00e7\u00f5es EUA-China, e uma perspectiva melhorada para o biocombust\u00edvel \u00e0 base de milho. A Pesquisa de Inten\u00e7\u00f5es de Plantio do USDA n\u00e3o reflete, no entanto, isso com a \u00e1rea geral de milho agora prevista em menos de 1% acima de 2020 (Tabela 1).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Apesar das varia\u00e7\u00f5es nas estimativas, conforme mostrado na Tabela 1, continua claro que os produtores plantar\u00e3o uma \u00e1rea muito maior em 2021 em compara\u00e7\u00e3o a 2020, e qualquer mudan\u00e7a adicional da soja para o milho provavelmente favorecer\u00e1 o mercado de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos. Com base nisso, pode-se esperar que o mercado de produtos de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos na Am\u00e9rica do Norte continue a melhora vista em 2020 at\u00e9 2022.<\/p>\n

\"\"

Fonte: Kynetec Ag Market Insights p = preliminarmente, f = previs\u00e3o<\/em><\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Espera-se que o mercado de produtos de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos na Am\u00e9rica do Norte continue a melhorar em 2020 at\u00e9 2022.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":66439,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,26,19,20,5,1846],"tags":[54],"class_list":["post-67498","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-americas","category-herbicides","category-insecticides","category-markets","category-sustainability","tag-featured-home"],"yoast_head":"\nPlanting Intentions, U.S.-China Relationship Among Key Factors Driving North American Crop Protection Market - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The market for crop protection products in North America can be expected to continue the improvement seen in 2020 out to 2022.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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