{"id":67617,"date":"2021-07-05T14:49:25","date_gmt":"2021-07-05T18:49:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=67617"},"modified":"2021-06-30T14:50:58","modified_gmt":"2021-06-30T18:50:58","slug":"china-changes-buying-tactics-as-u-s-grain-run-enters-volatile-stage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/china-changes-buying-tactics-as-u-s-grain-run-enters-volatile-stage\/","title":{"rendered":"China muda t\u00e1ticas de compra enquanto a corrida de gr\u00e3os dos EUA entra em est\u00e1gio vol\u00e1til"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A China abalou o mercado de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o de gr\u00e3os para ra\u00e7\u00e3o dos EUA no \u00faltimo ano, comprando grandes quantidades de soja, sorgo e milho dos EUA. Com a ajuda de uma taxa de c\u00e2mbio favor\u00e1vel, a China aumentou suas compras dos EUA para atender \u00e0 demanda por ra\u00e7\u00e3o para sua crescente produ\u00e7\u00e3o de su\u00ednos e para compensar a redu\u00e7\u00e3o da oferta do Brasil. Espera-se que a demanda acelerada da China por gr\u00e3os continue, embora seus padr\u00f5es de compra estejam mudando em resposta \u00e0 din\u00e2mica do mercado de gr\u00e3os dos EUA.<\/p>\n<p>De acordo com um <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cobank.com\/knowledge-exchange\/grain-and-farm-supply\/feeding-the-hungry-dragon-china-changes-buying-tactics-in-volatile-phase-of-u.s.-grain-run\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">novo relat\u00f3rio do Knowledge Exchange do CoBank<\/a>, a perspectiva para exporta\u00e7\u00f5es cont\u00ednuas de gr\u00e3os dos EUA para a China continua forte, principalmente devido ao seu crescimento projetado na produ\u00e7\u00e3o de carne su\u00edna e \u00e0 demanda est\u00e1vel por gr\u00e3os para ra\u00e7\u00e3o. No entanto, a atual corrida de gr\u00e3os dos EUA entrou em uma nova fase marcada por significativa volatilidade de pre\u00e7os, e a China est\u00e1 alavancando essa volatilidade a seu favor.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA China continuar\u00e1 a ser um comprador ativo de cereais dos EUA pelo menos durante o ano comercial de 2021-22\u201d, disse <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cobank.com\/people\/experts\/kenneth-scott-zuckerberg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kenneth Scott Zuckerberg<\/a>, economista-chefe de gr\u00e3os e suprimentos agr\u00edcolas do CoBank. \u201cMas a maior volatilidade nos pre\u00e7os dos gr\u00e3os levou a China a mudar seu padr\u00e3o de compra para esperar a fraqueza dos pre\u00e7os antes de se comprometer com compras adicionais, bem como a fazer contratos agora para o pr\u00f3ximo ano de comercializa\u00e7\u00e3o.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>A demanda elevada da China resultou em pre\u00e7os recordes de gr\u00e3os que atingiram o pico em maio e desde ent\u00e3o t\u00eam sido extremamente vol\u00e1teis. Um per\u00edodo de volatilidade de pre\u00e7os elevada, juntamente com uma curva de futuros invertida em andamento, significa que os elevadores de gr\u00e3os e comerciantes exigir\u00e3o disciplina de capital e excesso de liquidez, observou Zuckerberg.<\/p>\n<p>At\u00e9 agora em 2021, os EUA j\u00e1 exportaram impressionantes 57,1 milh\u00f5es de toneladas m\u00e9tricas (MMT) de soja, milho e sorgo gran\u00edfero para a China. Esse \u00e9 um aumento dram\u00e1tico em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com os 15,5 MMT que a China comprou no mesmo per\u00edodo em 2020 e 7,9 MMT comprados em 2019. Somando-se ao \u00edmpeto, a China j\u00e1 contratou 10,7 MMT de milho de nova safra e 3,0 MMT de soja para serem entregues ap\u00f3s a colheita e registrados durante o ano de comercializa\u00e7\u00e3o da safra de 2021-22.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSalvo cancelamentos, esses pedidos d\u00e3o confian\u00e7a de que as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de gr\u00e3os para ra\u00e7\u00e3o dos EUA para a China continuar\u00e3o fortes durante os pr\u00f3ximos seis meses\u201d, disse Zuckerberg.<\/p>\n<p>Desde maio de 2020, a China tem comprado agressivamente soja e milho como ra\u00e7\u00e3o para reconstruir sua popula\u00e7\u00e3o su\u00edna dom\u00e9stica ap\u00f3s um surto devastador de Peste Su\u00edna Africana (PSA). Embora o abate de su\u00ednos na China tenha diminu\u00eddo em 2019 e 2020 devido \u00e0 Peste Su\u00edna Africana e \u00e0 COVID, espera-se que o abate aumente significativamente em 2021. O USDA projeta que o abate de su\u00ednos da China subir\u00e1 para 520 milh\u00f5es de cabe\u00e7as em 2021, ap\u00f3s cair para 460 milh\u00f5es no ano passado.<\/p>\n<p>O Instituto de Pesquisa em Pol\u00edticas Agr\u00edcolas e Alimentares da Universidade do Missouri (FAPRI) foi ainda mais longe, aumentando recentemente sua estimativa de abate de su\u00ednos na China em 2021 de 520 milh\u00f5es de cabe\u00e7as para 630 milh\u00f5es, um aumento de 21% que precipitaria um aumento semelhante na demanda por gr\u00e3os.<\/p>\n<p>O consumo per capita de prote\u00edna animal na China quase triplicou nos \u00faltimos 40 anos, com a carne su\u00edna respondendo pela maior parte do crescimento. A China importa a maioria dos gr\u00e3os usados na produ\u00e7\u00e3o de carne su\u00edna.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA combina\u00e7\u00e3o de produ\u00e7\u00e3o est\u00e1vel de carne su\u00edna, maiores taxas de abate e ventos favor\u00e1veis \u00e0 moeda sugere que o apetite chin\u00eas por gr\u00e3os de ra\u00e7\u00e3o dos EUA permanecer\u00e1 forte\u201d, disse Zuckerberg.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A forte demanda continuar\u00e1, mas a China recorre a compras oportunistas quando os pre\u00e7os caem.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":60600,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-67617","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - 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