{"id":68179,"date":"2021-11-09T08:12:58","date_gmt":"2021-11-09T13:12:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=68179"},"modified":"2021-11-10T12:07:47","modified_gmt":"2021-11-10T17:07:47","slug":"covid-19-and-supply-chain-disruptions-indian-crop-input-market-facing-an-unpredictable-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/covid-19-and-supply-chain-disruptions-indian-crop-input-market-facing-an-unpredictable-future\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19 e interrup\u00e7\u00f5es na cadeia de suprimentos: o mercado indiano de insumos agr\u00edcolas enfrenta um futuro "imprevis\u00edvel""},"content":{"rendered":"

Nota do editor: esta hist\u00f3ria foi escrita no in\u00edcio de 2021 e inclui an\u00e1lises que n\u00e3o refletem nenhuma mudan\u00e7a nas condi\u00e7\u00f5es de mercado ocorridas no segundo semestre do ano.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

A pandemia da COVID-19 est\u00e1 tendo um impacto negativo no com\u00e9rcio mundial em todos os setores, mas seus efeitos s\u00e3o sentidos mais seriamente nas ind\u00fastrias cujos processos de produ\u00e7\u00e3o est\u00e3o vinculados a cadeias de valor globais de diferentes tipos.<\/p>\n

A situa\u00e7\u00e3o pand\u00eamica na \u00cdndia hoje n\u00e3o \u00e9 um problema que ficar\u00e1 confinado a um pa\u00eds sozinho no futuro pr\u00f3ximo, pois levar\u00e1 a interrup\u00e7\u00f5es na cadeia de suprimentos, mesmo entre fronteiras, em muitos setores. Atualmente, evid\u00eancias disso s\u00e3o vistas na ind\u00fastria farmac\u00eautica e de medicamentos, mas h\u00e1 pouca d\u00favida de que essas interrup\u00e7\u00f5es prejudicar\u00e3o o fluxo de insumos agr\u00edcolas e afetar\u00e3o as cadeias de suprimentos de alimentos mais cedo ou mais tarde.<\/p>\n

A experi\u00eancia de 2020 foi que muitos pa\u00edses que antes dependiam da China mudaram para o mercado da cadeia de suprimentos da \u00cdndia para adquirir muitas commodities, incluindo insumos agr\u00edcolas.<\/p>\n

N\u00e3o apenas os impactos da pandemia enfrentados pelos pa\u00edses vizinhos concorrentes, mas tamb\u00e9m as guerras comerciais pol\u00edticas dos gigantes mundiais trouxeram muitos benef\u00edcios comerciais para a \u00cdndia, apesar da desacelera\u00e7\u00e3o tempor\u00e1ria das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es causada pela queda repentina na demanda por produtos dos pa\u00edses afetados pela Covid-19.<\/p>\n

A ind\u00fastria qu\u00edmica e de fertilizantes indiana h\u00e1 muito tempo depende da China para bens intermedi\u00e1rios. O com\u00e9rcio de produtos qu\u00edmicos entre a China e a \u00cdndia por ano valia apenas cerca de $30 bilh\u00f5es por ano. No entanto, devido \u00e0 situa\u00e7\u00e3o de pandemia na China em 2020, houve uma queda nas exporta\u00e7\u00f5es da China, e isso impactou negativamente a economia indiana, causando uma perda estimada de cerca de $350 milh\u00f5es de d\u00f3lares para o pa\u00eds. Apesar disso, houve um impacto positivo resultante porque muitas empresas indianas come\u00e7aram a diversificar suas fontes de fornecimento e come\u00e7aram a mudar para outros mercados como Coreia e Jap\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

Lidando com a segunda onda da Covid<\/h2>\n

Isso impactou gravemente o mercado chin\u00eas porque o surto catastr\u00f3fico de Covid-19 na \u00cdndia em abril de 2021 interrompeu todo o com\u00e9rcio, mas mesmo antes disso, os pedidos do mercado indiano ca\u00edram significativamente porque a \u00cdndia se afastou de sua pr\u00e1tica anterior de depend\u00eancia de um \u00fanico pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m disso, a \u00cdndia estava, de fato, no processo de capturar uma grande fatia do mercado de produtos qu\u00edmicos da China, abordando pa\u00edses que buscavam alternativas \u00e0 China para seu fornecimento de produtos qu\u00edmicos.<\/p>\n

No entanto, a situa\u00e7\u00e3o atual na \u00cdndia que prevalece desde abril de 2021 precipitou novamente uma situa\u00e7\u00e3o estranha em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 demanda e oferta global de muitas commodities, incluindo insumos agr\u00edcolas. Hoje, a \u00cdndia est\u00e1 passando por uma fase em que o futuro parece ser totalmente imprevis\u00edvel, com at\u00e9 mesmo os compradores dom\u00e9sticos se sentindo bastante incertos sobre o fornecimento oportuno de v\u00e1rios bens.<\/p>\n

Com o aumento nas taxas de infec\u00e7\u00e3o di\u00e1rias subindo para cerca de 400.000 e mortes di\u00e1rias para mais de 3.000, era inevit\u00e1vel que muitos fornecedores fossem for\u00e7ados, como medida priorit\u00e1ria, a fechar suas f\u00e1bricas para salvar vidas. Muitos trabalhadores e\/ou suas fam\u00edlias j\u00e1 foram afetados e, como a situa\u00e7\u00e3o provavelmente continuar\u00e1, a maioria das empresas provavelmente ser\u00e1 for\u00e7ada a fechar. Enquanto isso, as restri\u00e7\u00f5es relacionadas \u00e0 sa\u00fade p\u00fablica est\u00e3o aumentando, com a imposi\u00e7\u00e3o de bloqueios regionais, redu\u00e7\u00e3o de movimento, etc.<\/p>\n

O Governador do RBI (Reserve Bank of India) declarado<\/a>: \u201cO objetivo imediato \u00e9 preservar a vida humana e restaurar o sustento das pessoas por todos os meios poss\u00edveis.\u201d O estado de Maharashtra, que \u00e9 o cora\u00e7\u00e3o financeiro da \u00cdndia, se tornou o epicentro da segunda onda de Covid-19 na \u00cdndia e permanece em lockdown desde 21 de abril.<\/p>\n

Devido a esses desenvolvimentos adversos, restri\u00e7\u00f5es foram impostas a ind\u00fastrias, portos, aeroportos, companhias a\u00e9reas e at\u00e9 mesmo ao setor de transporte dom\u00e9stico, causando impedimentos severos \u00e0 log\u00edstica da cadeia de suprimentos. Indicadores econ\u00f4micos mostram uma desacelera\u00e7\u00e3o dr\u00e1stica em v\u00e1rios setores, incluindo com\u00e9rcio e ind\u00fastria, bem como escassez de fornecimento de mat\u00e9rias-primas, incluindo insumos agr\u00edcolas.<\/p>\n

Como pode ser visto nas experi\u00eancias dos pa\u00edses afetados nos anos anteriores, o impacto nos insumos agr\u00edcolas e na cadeia de abastecimento de alimentos se manifesta de v\u00e1rias maneiras:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Interrup\u00e7\u00e3o no fornecimento de mat\u00e9ria-prima.<\/li>\n
  2. Interrup\u00e7\u00e3o de frete\/carga e transporte.<\/li>\n
  3. Escassez de m\u00e3o de obra.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    A ind\u00fastria indiana de insumos agr\u00edcolas que produz fertilizantes qu\u00edmicos e pesticidas \u00e9 fortemente dependente da China para mat\u00e9rias-primas. Como relatado<\/a> em\u00a0O hindu<\/em> ano passado, \u201cA ind\u00fastria de pesticidas na \u00cdndia \u00e9 fortemente dependente da importa\u00e7\u00e3o de cerca de 15 inseticidas espec\u00edficos da China. Dos 15 pesticidas, acefato, cartape, buprofezina e pretilaclor representam 80%-90% do com\u00e9rcio com a China, enquanto imidacloprida, azoxistrobina, imazetapir e acetamiprida representam 40%-50% das importa\u00e7\u00f5es da China.\u201d<\/p>\n

    Em 26 de abril, a empresa estatal chinesa A Sichuan Airlines suspendeu os voos de carga para a \u00cdndia<\/a> por 15 dias em meio a um segundo surto alarmante de Covid-19 l\u00e1. Da mesma forma, muitos navios porta-cont\u00eaineres tamb\u00e9m podem ser for\u00e7ados a interromper as opera\u00e7\u00f5es em uma repeti\u00e7\u00e3o da experi\u00eancia dos anos anteriores.<\/p>\n

    Se o transporte de carga e a log\u00edstica permanecerem paralisados por algumas semanas como resultado da imposi\u00e7\u00e3o de restri\u00e7\u00f5es rigorosas pela China, isso certamente ter\u00e1 um impacto negativo nas cadeias de suprimentos. Isso far\u00e1 com que n\u00e3o apenas os agricultores pobres na \u00cdndia, mas tamb\u00e9m os grandes produtores e exportadores se sintam inseguros sobre o futuro.<\/p>\n

    Bloqueios locais e restri\u00e7\u00f5es de transporte provavelmente ter\u00e3o impacto no movimento de sementes, o que pode afetar negativamente a agricultura e, consequentemente, o fornecimento de alimentos.<\/p>\n

    Interrup\u00e7\u00f5es no CO2<\/sub>\u00a0a oferta pode ser outra barreira no setor. Conforme o Resposta pol\u00edtica da OCDE \u00e0 COVID-19 no ano passado<\/a>, dist\u00farbios foram causados \u00e0 produ\u00e7\u00e3o de fertilizantes de alguns fornecedores devido a quest\u00f5es trabalhistas. Tais incidentes resultaram em uma queda s\u00e9ria em CO2<\/sub> produ\u00e7\u00e3o, e isso afetou inevitavelmente a ind\u00fastria aliment\u00edcia. CO2<\/sub> \u00e9 usado para congelamento, carbonata\u00e7\u00e3o de bebidas e para conservar produtos em uma atmosfera inerte, como carnes embaladas, permitindo uma vida \u00fatil mais longa para os produtos antes que a data de validade seja atingida. A escassez de di\u00f3xido de carbono representa s\u00e9rios problemas para os fabricantes de alimentos de muitas maneiras.<\/p>\n

    N\u00e3o apenas o fornecimento de produtos qu\u00edmicos, fertilizantes e sementes ser\u00e1 interrompido, mas o mercado de trabalho tamb\u00e9m experimentar\u00e1 impactos negativos semelhantes. Isso afetar\u00e1 n\u00e3o apenas os trabalhadores dentro da \u00cdndia, mas tamb\u00e9m todos os trabalhadores indianos espalhados pelo globo, preenchendo a demanda por m\u00e3o de obra em muitas cadeias de suprimento de alimentos.<\/p>\n

    Em um Reuters<\/em> entrevista com Myron Brilliant<\/a>, vice-presidente executivo da C\u00e2mara de Com\u00e9rcio dos EUA, ele observou que \u201co risco de efeitos colaterais era alto, dado que muitas empresas dos EUA empregam milh\u00f5es de trabalhadores indianos para administrar suas opera\u00e7\u00f5es de back-office\u201d.<\/p>\n

    Essas quest\u00f5es certamente contribuir\u00e3o para as lacunas na cadeia de suprimentos das ind\u00fastrias de insumos agr\u00edcolas na \u00cdndia e em outros lugares que dependem da \u00cdndia.<\/p>\n

    Ap\u00f3s a quebra da cadeia de suprimentos do ano passado (2020) na China, muitas empresas indianas de manufatura e log\u00edstica fizeram o movimento estrat\u00e9gico para capturar o mercado daqueles compradores que at\u00e9 ent\u00e3o dependiam da China para obter seus suprimentos de insumos agr\u00edcolas. No entanto, antes que seus planos pudessem dar frutos, a situa\u00e7\u00e3o na \u00cdndia piorou do que antes e agora muitos compradores come\u00e7aram a especular sobre seus suprimentos futuros mais uma vez.<\/p>\n

    O que o futuro reserva? Os EUA retornar\u00e3o \u00e0s suas tradicionais cadeias de suprimentos chinesas que est\u00e3o se recuperando rapidamente dos impactos da Covid-19? Embora isso possa parecer prov\u00e1vel, ningu\u00e9m pode ter certeza, pois a situa\u00e7\u00e3o em todas as regi\u00f5es continua fluida.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    O que o futuro reserva para a cadeia de suprimentos na \u00cdndia e al\u00e9m? Um economista diz que ningu\u00e9m pode ter certeza, pois a situa\u00e7\u00e3o em todas as regi\u00f5es continua fluida.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":60792,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28,5],"tags":[54,1236],"class_list":["post-68179","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asia","category-markets","tag-featured-home","tag-india"],"yoast_head":"\nCOVID-19 and Supply Chain Disruptions: Indian Crop Input Market Facing an 'Unpredictable' Future - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What\u00a0does\u00a0the future hold for the supply chain in India and beyond? 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