{"id":68182,"date":"2021-11-10T11:43:14","date_gmt":"2021-11-10T16:43:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=68182"},"modified":"2021-11-10T12:52:42","modified_gmt":"2021-11-10T17:52:42","slug":"global-fertilizer-prices-stabilize-after-boom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/plant-health\/npk\/global-fertilizer-prices-stabilize-after-boom\/","title":{"rendered":"Pre\u00e7os globais de fertilizantes se estabilizam ap\u00f3s o boom"},"content":{"rendered":"

Os pre\u00e7os internacionais de fertilizantes permaneceram em n\u00edveis recordes mesmo durante os tradicionalmente calmos meses de ver\u00e3o. O fornecimento da maioria dos nutrientes para as colheitas foi apertado para os produtores em agosto, enquanto uma nova demanda surgiu em setembro.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Uma corre\u00e7\u00e3o para baixo pode ser esperada ap\u00f3s aumentos recordes de pre\u00e7os. Mas qualquer decl\u00ednio provavelmente ser\u00e1 de curta dura\u00e7\u00e3o, pois os compradores entrariam para cobrir as necessidades, enquanto os traders podem olhar para a oportunidade de construir posi\u00e7\u00f5es longas. Os altos pre\u00e7os de mat\u00e9ria-prima e g\u00e1s manter\u00e3o os custos de produ\u00e7\u00e3o elevados e desencorajar\u00e3o os produtores de vender a pre\u00e7os baixos.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

O arranque de novas plantas de nitrog\u00eanio na Nig\u00e9ria<\/a>, com uma capacidade total de mais de 4 milh\u00f5es de toneladas de ureia, dificilmente impactar\u00e1 o mercado imediatamente. Um impacto real \u00e9 esperado em 2022, quando De Dangote<\/a> problemas de log\u00edstica s\u00e3o resolvidos e sua segunda linha de 1,27 milh\u00e3o de toneladas\/ano \u00e9 comissionada.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Indorama's<\/a> a segunda linha na Nig\u00e9ria, com capacidade de 1,6 milh\u00f5es de toneladas de ureia, est\u00e1 em fase de comissionamento. As exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de sua nova produ\u00e7\u00e3o provavelmente ser\u00e3o significativas apenas em 2022, quando a produ\u00e7\u00e3o se estabilizar. O destino de outras novas plantas de ureia na \u00cdndia e Brunei ainda n\u00e3o \u00e9 conhecido, com nova capacidade prevista para chegar ao mercado em 2022.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A expans\u00e3o de am\u00f4nia e fosfato planejada na Ar\u00e1bia Saudita tamb\u00e9m ser\u00e1 intensificada em 2022.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Atualiza\u00e7\u00e3o de nitrog\u00eanio<\/span><\/b><\/h2>\n

Os pre\u00e7os da ureia est\u00e3o come\u00e7ando a cair pela primeira vez desde maio, \u00e0 medida que as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es chinesas aumentam. Qualquer corre\u00e7\u00e3o ser\u00e1 de curta dura\u00e7\u00e3o, com a \u00cdndia e o Brasil retornando ao mercado para embarques de outono.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/b>\u201cEu n\u00e3o diria que o mercado est\u00e1 caindo, mas parece que ele est\u00e1 respirando fundo\u201d, disse um produtor.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A \u00cdndia \u00e9 o \u00fanico mercado ativo, com todos os outros centros importadores de ureia tranquilos, pois os pre\u00e7os atingiram n\u00edveis recordes que os compradores est\u00e3o lutando para aceitar. V\u00e1rias regi\u00f5es tamb\u00e9m est\u00e3o entre as esta\u00e7\u00f5es. A \u00cdndia concordou em comprar 1,2 milh\u00e3o de toneladas, seu maior volume do ano. Os pr\u00eamios foram de $509,50-516,95\/tonelada CFR (custo e frete), com cerca de 700.000 toneladas sendo enviadas somente da China.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A disponibilidade chinesa surpreendeu o mercado e levou a questionamentos sobre se as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es seriam maiores em setembro para a pr\u00f3xima licita\u00e7\u00e3o da \u00cdndia. Fornecedores privados na China est\u00e3o enviando 13-14 navios para RCF, em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com tr\u00eas a quatro cargas na licita\u00e7\u00e3o anterior. Os pre\u00e7os dom\u00e9sticos est\u00e3o abaixo dos n\u00edveis de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o em $20 a $30\/tonelada. Produtores chineses privados est\u00e3o livres para exportar, enquanto as empresas estatais ainda est\u00e3o se concentrando em manter o mercado dom\u00e9stico bem abastecido ap\u00f3s uma reuni\u00e3o com o governo em 22 de julho. "Agora depende tudo da China. Haver\u00e1 algum abrandamento at\u00e9 a pr\u00f3xima licita\u00e7\u00e3o indiana", disse um trader.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Europa, Turquia e Sudeste Asi\u00e1tico estavam em f\u00e9rias de ver\u00e3o, enquanto as compras no Brasil foram retomadas em setembro. As ofertas no Brasil estavam em $490\/tonelada CFR no ver\u00e3o, caindo por duas semanas seguidas, pois os n\u00edveis de estoque estavam altos.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Os EUA est\u00e3o vendo uma falta de demanda, j\u00e1 que os comerciantes esperam para comprar e calcular a disponibilidade futura da China \u00e0 luz da licita\u00e7\u00e3o indiana. \u201cEsta \u00e9 uma pausa ap\u00f3s um longo per\u00edodo de pre\u00e7os crescendo (para cima), e por causa da baixa temporada no\u00a0<\/span>C<\/span>est\u201d, disse outro produtor.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Os produtores est\u00e3o confort\u00e1veis globalmente, apesar da fraqueza emergindo em alguns mercados. No Golfo \u00c1rabe, um fornecedor recusou um navio alguns dias antes, pois n\u00e3o havia produto suficiente pronto. Qualquer disponibilidade spot para setembro foi guardada para a pr\u00f3xima licita\u00e7\u00e3o indiana. Na \u00cdndia, a demanda dom\u00e9stica recebeu um impulso em meados de julho devido \u00e0s chuvas abundantes, ap\u00f3s ter sido mais lenta no in\u00edcio do m\u00eas.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

O padr\u00e3o no mercado de am\u00f4nia \u00e9 similar. A atividade de negocia\u00e7\u00e3o permaneceu limitada em uma combina\u00e7\u00e3o de escassez spot e fatores sazonais. Os pre\u00e7os continuam a firmar o acordo do contrato de am\u00f4nia de agosto em Tampa em um aumento de $40\/tonelada em rela\u00e7\u00e3o a julho.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Os nitratos continuam acompanhando a tend\u00eancia de alta nos pre\u00e7os do nitrog\u00eanio, com os agricultores trocando a ureia em muitos casos.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

P&C<\/span><\/b><\/h2>\n

O mercado de fosfatos est\u00e1 desacelerando, pois a maioria das regi\u00f5es passou por uma calmaria sazonal. Mesmo na \u00cdndia, onde h\u00e1 demanda por fosfato diam\u00f4nico (DAP), o apetite de compra permanece abafado devido \u00e0 disponibilidade restrita e aos altos pre\u00e7os internacionais. A demanda por fertilizantes dos agricultores na \u00cdndia \u00e9 forte devido \u00e0 boa mon\u00e7\u00e3o, mas as ofertas de produtos importados s\u00e3o escassas. Produtores do Marrocos, Jord\u00e2nia e China n\u00e3o t\u00eam produtos para oferecer \u00e0 \u00cdndia.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Na China, os produtores est\u00e3o se concentrando no mercado interno. Alguns produtores suspenderam as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es, e n\u00e3o est\u00e1 claro quando elas ser\u00e3o retomadas. H\u00e1 mais demanda surgindo no Paquist\u00e3o, mas os compradores ter\u00e3o que esperar o produto ficar dispon\u00edvel no mercado. No Brasil, o mercado de fosfato monoam\u00f4nio (MAP) est\u00e1 fraco, pois a demanda pela temporada de soja acabou. Espera-se que os neg\u00f3cios de importa\u00e7\u00e3o aumentem no final do ano para a pr\u00f3xima temporada.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A atividade na Am\u00e9rica do Norte e Latina \u00e9 limitada devido a fatores sazonais.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Os pre\u00e7os do pot\u00e1ssio est\u00e3o firmes, com os produtores continuando a aumentar as ofertas, pois o fornecimento \u00e9 limitado. As san\u00e7\u00f5es \u00e0 Bielorr\u00fassia n\u00e3o tiveram um impacto real no mercado. Os compradores est\u00e3o esperando por enquanto, e uma licita\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 aguardada na Indon\u00e9sia para dar a dire\u00e7\u00e3o do pre\u00e7o.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Uma corre\u00e7\u00e3o descendente pode ser esperada ap\u00f3s aumentos recordes de pre\u00e7os.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":67824,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[23,1849],"tags":[54],"class_list":["post-68182","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-npk","category-sourcing-insider","tag-featured-home"],"yoast_head":"\nGlobal Fertilizer Prices Stabilize After Boom - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A downward correction can be expected after record price increases.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/plant-health\/npk\/global-fertilizer-prices-stabilize-after-boom\/\" \/>\n<meta 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