{"id":68198,"date":"2021-11-21T16:53:17","date_gmt":"2021-11-21T21:53:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=68198"},"modified":"2021-11-22T13:49:41","modified_gmt":"2021-11-22T18:49:41","slug":"supply-shortages-loom-chinas-energy-environmental-policies-to-collide-to-further-disrupt-manufacturing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/sourcing-insider\/supply-shortages-loom-chinas-energy-environmental-policies-to-collide-to-further-disrupt-manufacturing\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00cdndice de pre\u00e7os da China: escassez de oferta se aproxima \u00e0 medida que as pol\u00edticas energ\u00e9ticas e ambientais entram em conflito"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nota do editor: O escritor colaborador David Li oferece um instant\u00e2neo das tend\u00eancias atuais de pre\u00e7os dos principais herbicidas, fungicidas e inseticidas no mercado agroqu\u00edmico chin\u00eas em seu boletim mensal\u00a0\u00cdndice de pre\u00e7os da China<\/a>. Ele tamb\u00e9m fornece insights sobre como a pol\u00edtica de duplo controle da China, as pr\u00f3ximas auditorias ambientais, os Jogos Ol\u00edmpicos de Inverno e as f\u00e9rias de primavera est\u00e3o conspirando para interromper a capacidade de produ\u00e7\u00e3o at\u00e9 2022.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

da China Controle Duplo<\/a> a pol\u00edtica sobre plantas de fabrica\u00e7\u00e3o para conserva\u00e7\u00e3o de energia continua a impactar o fornecimento de agroqu\u00edmicos da China para o mercado global. De acordo com o \u00cdndice de Carga Cont\u00eainerizada de Xangai (Exporta\u00e7\u00e3o) (SCFI)<\/a>, o \u00edndice de custo de frete come\u00e7ou a diminuir em outubro, com volumes de embarques menores possivelmente devido \u00e0 produ\u00e7\u00e3o reduzida como resultado da pol\u00edtica de Controle Duplo. De acordo com dados da alf\u00e2ndega, o embarque de entrada e sa\u00edda da China caiu 11.95% YOY em setembro de 2021. A baixa taxa de embarques de entrada e sa\u00edda no outono de 2021 pode sinalizar uma redu\u00e7\u00e3o repentina no fornecimento da China devido \u00e0 suspens\u00e3o da produ\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

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Al\u00e9m disso, os pre\u00e7os do f\u00f3sforo amarelo ca\u00edram quase pela metade entre 8 de outubro de 2021 e 2 de novembro de 2021, de uma alta de cerca de 60 CNY\/Kg. A queda no pre\u00e7o do f\u00f3sforo amarelo foi um sinal claro de que a produ\u00e7\u00e3o da China n\u00e3o pode voltar ao normal rapidamente. \u00c9 incomum ter uma queda de pre\u00e7o quando a capacidade de f\u00f3sforo amarelo da China foi cortada em cerca de 48% no total. A principal raz\u00e3o para tal cen\u00e1rio \u00e9 a suspens\u00e3o da produ\u00e7\u00e3o em diferentes prov\u00edncias devido ao Controle Duplo. Parece claro que a pol\u00edtica de Controle Duplo j\u00e1 est\u00e1 afetando a produ\u00e7\u00e3o downstream de agroqu\u00edmicos essenciais, e as mat\u00e9rias-primas podem continuar a cair se as taxas de produ\u00e7\u00e3o mais baixas persistirem.<\/p>\n

De acordo com muitos fabricantes de agroqu\u00edmicos na China, a garantia de capacidade 50% no quarto trimestre de 2021 e no primeiro trimestre de 2022 seria o melhor resultado para a manuten\u00e7\u00e3o dos neg\u00f3cios. Como outras produ\u00e7\u00f5es qu\u00edmicas finas, a fabrica\u00e7\u00e3o de agroqu\u00edmicos precisa de gerenciamento cont\u00ednuo da produ\u00e7\u00e3o. A suspens\u00e3o da produ\u00e7\u00e3o e a escassez de fornecimento de eletricidade trariam maior risco no controle de seguran\u00e7a e estoques nos pr\u00f3ximos seis meses. Al\u00e9m disso, h\u00e1 outros fatores para bloquear a produ\u00e7\u00e3o. A disponibilidade limitada de intermedi\u00e1rios importantes dificulta a capacidade de opera\u00e7\u00e3o. O impacto est\u00e1 influenciando toda a ind\u00fastria qu\u00edmica, tanto a montante quanto a jusante. As cargas de trabalho dos funcion\u00e1rios n\u00e3o podem ser 100% devido \u00e0 suspens\u00e3o da fabrica\u00e7\u00e3o. Os custos operacionais aumentariam devido \u00e0 menor capacidade. Os fabricantes estatais e empresas com processos de tecnologia avan\u00e7ada poderiam manter a taxa de contrata\u00e7\u00e3o. As empresas privadas com apenas portf\u00f3lios de cauda longa seriam menos competitivas. Esse impacto traria uma nova rodada de consolida\u00e7\u00e3o e eliminaria grande parte do excesso de capacidade que a China vem trabalhando para eliminar, o que seria realizado em 2022 e duraria at\u00e9 2023.<\/p>\n

O ponto de virada para os custos de frete de Xangai e f\u00f3sforo amarelo refletem o decl\u00ednio da produ\u00e7\u00e3o na China. Sem uma forte demanda do lado da produ\u00e7\u00e3o, os custos de log\u00edstica e os pre\u00e7os das mat\u00e9rias-primas teriam um pouso suave ou cairiam devido \u00e0 natureza disruptiva da incerteza em torno da utiliza\u00e7\u00e3o da capacidade.<\/p>\n

Para resumir os fatores de influ\u00eancia futuros para o fornecimento de agroqu\u00edmicos na China em 2022, o cronograma a seguir fornece uma boa vis\u00e3o geral:<\/p>\n

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At\u00e9 o final de 2021, a pol\u00edtica de Controle Duplo estar\u00e1 exercendo sua influ\u00eancia ao mesmo tempo que a pol\u00edtica de controle integrado da polui\u00e7\u00e3o do ar, que vai de outubro de 2021 a mar\u00e7o de 2022. A auditoria de prote\u00e7\u00e3o ambiental durar\u00e1 at\u00e9 os Jogos Ol\u00edmpicos de Inverno de Pequim, j\u00e1 que o feriado da primavera chinesa acontece na mesma \u00e9poca. O aquecimento de inverno no norte da China come\u00e7ou em novembro em algumas cidades e prov\u00edncias. De acordo com caixin.com<\/a>, os formuladores de pol\u00edticas na China introduziram v\u00e1rias medidas para estabilizar os pre\u00e7os do carv\u00e3o. Os pre\u00e7os futuros do carv\u00e3o t\u00e9rmico dom\u00e9stico ca\u00edram pela metade em meio m\u00eas. Em 2 de novembro, o contrato principal 2201 fechou em 891,8 yuan\/ton, queda de 5,51% em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao dia de negocia\u00e7\u00e3o anterior e 53,26% em rela\u00e7\u00e3o a 19 de outubro, caindo de volta ao n\u00edvel do in\u00edcio de setembro.<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m disso, a Comiss\u00e3o Nacional de Desenvolvimento e Reforma anunciou em 31 de outubro que o suprimento de carv\u00e3o da usina el\u00e9trica unificada nacional tem sido maior do que o consumo de carv\u00e3o por 25 dias consecutivos desde 5 de outubro. Os n\u00edveis de armazenamento de carv\u00e3o atingiram 106 milh\u00f5es de toneladas recentemente, 28 milh\u00f5es de toneladas a mais do que no final de setembro, dispon\u00edveis por 19 dias. Com o suprimento est\u00e1vel de carv\u00e3o, o governo da China est\u00e1 tentando manter o sustento das pessoas durante este inverno, o que coloca uma prioridade na sa\u00fade e seguran\u00e7a das pessoas versus a produ\u00e7\u00e3o da ind\u00fastria.<\/p>\n

Durante o feriado da primavera, os Jogos Ol\u00edmpicos de Inverno de Pequim ser\u00e3o o outro influenciador, especialmente para a produ\u00e7\u00e3o nas \u00e1reas de Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, que ficam perto de Pequim. O controle da polui\u00e7\u00e3o do ar ser\u00e1 a prioridade para auditoria. Como as empresas agroqu\u00edmicas da China t\u00eam enfrentado problemas de polui\u00e7\u00e3o do ar e controle de emiss\u00e3o de res\u00edduos nos \u00faltimos tr\u00eas anos. A atualiza\u00e7\u00e3o b\u00e1sica do controle de VOC j\u00e1 foi feita. O controle para os Jogos Ol\u00edmpicos de Inverno de Pequim come\u00e7aria em dezembro de 2021 e continuaria at\u00e9 mar\u00e7o de 2022. Recentemente, houve alguns casos de COVID-19 encontrados em Pequim e na prov\u00edncia de Hebei. As restri\u00e7\u00f5es de viagens e aglomera\u00e7\u00e3o de pessoas ser\u00e3o outro problema disruptivo para a produ\u00e7\u00e3o na \u00e1rea de Jing-Jin-Ji. As Duas Sess\u00f5es (Lianghui) seguem os Jogos Ol\u00edmpicos de Inverno de Pequim, ent\u00e3o as restri\u00e7\u00f5es podem diminuir entre mar\u00e7o e abril de 2022, mas ser\u00e3o consistentes com a pol\u00edtica em andamento.<\/p>\n

Em setembro de 2022, os 19\u00ba Jogos Asi\u00e1ticos em Hnagzhou podem afetar a produ\u00e7\u00e3o do Sul da China. Os produtos perigosos ser\u00e3o controlados estritamente da mesma forma que o controle durante a China International Import Expo em novembro de 2021 em Xangai. No final de 2022, o 20\u00ba Congresso Nacional do Partido Comunit\u00e1rio da China ser\u00e1 importante para a na\u00e7\u00e3o. O controle semelhante ao das Duas Sess\u00f5es tamb\u00e9m teria impacto na produ\u00e7\u00e3o qu\u00edmica.<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m disso, n\u00e3o \u00e9 f\u00e1cil prever os efeitos da pol\u00edtica de neutralidade de carbono da China em 2022 e do fornecimento de eletricidade. As prov\u00edncias ser\u00e3o muito cuidadosas em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao gerenciamento de sua intensidade de consumo de energia. Como mencionado antes, a produ\u00e7\u00e3o qu\u00edmica precisa de gerenciamento de processo cont\u00ednuo. Os apag\u00f5es alternativos de energia n\u00e3o seriam uma boa solu\u00e7\u00e3o. O que poderia estar acontecendo em 2022 seria planejar o per\u00edodo de produ\u00e7\u00e3o em todo o ano. As empresas agroqu\u00edmicas calculariam claramente sobre quanta quantidade podem fornecer na nova temporada.<\/p>\n

Um acidente perturbou a produ\u00e7\u00e3o agroqu\u00edmica na Mong\u00f3lia Interior. De acordo com Not\u00edcias Xinhua<\/a>, quatro pessoas morreram e tr\u00eas ficaram feridas em uma explos\u00e3o repentina em uma f\u00e1brica de produtos qu\u00edmicos na zona de desenvolvimento da ind\u00fastria de alta tecnologia de Alashan em 22 de outubro. O governo da Mong\u00f3lia Interior come\u00e7ou a investigar o motivo do acidente, que est\u00e1 impactando o fornecimento de herbicidas. O pre\u00e7o de refer\u00eancia do glifosato atingiu 12,83 USD\/Kg, um pre\u00e7o hist\u00f3rico desde 2008. E n\u00e3o h\u00e1 sinal de que a situa\u00e7\u00e3o ir\u00e1 melhorar considerando a conflu\u00eancia de fatores j\u00e1 discutidos, incluindo Double Control, mat\u00e9rias-primas de alto pre\u00e7o e forte demanda.<\/p>\n

E como temos discutido e antecipado por meses nesta coluna, os pre\u00e7os do glufosinato permaneceram est\u00e1veis em 54 USD\/Kg EXW. Um fabricante prim\u00e1rio iniciou as opera\u00e7\u00f5es recentemente. Mas o mais importante deve ser alimentar os pedidos n\u00e3o entregues. O alto pre\u00e7o do glufosinato ficar\u00e1 est\u00e1vel no quarto trimestre de 2021 e no primeiro trimestre de 2022. O alto pre\u00e7o do herbicida n\u00e3o seletivo principal elevou os pre\u00e7os do diquat como uma escolha alternativa. O mercado de herbicidas n\u00e3o seletivos permanecer\u00e1 apertado durante os pr\u00f3ximos seis meses. A baixa taxa de opera\u00e7\u00e3o est\u00e1 afetando a maioria dos produtores de triaz\u00f3is. O pre\u00e7o do tebuconazol AI aumentou cerca de 90% acima do n\u00famero no ver\u00e3o de 2021. O alto consumo de energia na produ\u00e7\u00e3o upstream colocou mais press\u00e3o na produ\u00e7\u00e3o downstream. O imidacloprid AI aumentou para mais de 40 USD\/Kg, o que \u00e9 cerca de 74% a mais do que em 2008.<\/p>\n

No gr\u00e1fico de tend\u00eancia de pre\u00e7os, os pre\u00e7os de todos os produtos est\u00e3o aumentando acentuadamente. Nos pr\u00f3ximos seis meses, h\u00e1 uma grande possibilidade de escassez de suprimentos e taxas de produ\u00e7\u00e3o extremamente baixas. E a China est\u00e1 enfrentando uma nova rodada de COVID-19. O controle da pandemia \u00e9 uma das principais prioridades para o sucesso dos pr\u00f3ximos eventos. Uma cadeia de suprimentos disruptiva pode fazer com que distribuidores de m\u00e9dio ou pequeno porte tenham dificuldades durante a pr\u00f3xima temporada. Devido ao estoque seguro relativamente alto em diferentes mercados, produtos gen\u00e9ricos de empresas multinacionais podem ser uma escolha alternativa para garantir o plantio da temporada 2021\/2022.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A pol\u00edtica de duplo controle da China, as pr\u00f3ximas auditorias ambientais, os Jogos Ol\u00edmpicos de Inverno e as f\u00e9rias de primavera conspiram para interromper a capacidade de produ\u00e7\u00e3o at\u00e9 2022. <\/p>","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":65762,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,5,1849],"tags":[1836,554,54],"class_list":["post-68198","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-markets","category-sourcing-insider","tag-china-price-index","tag-featured","tag-featured-home"],"yoast_head":"\nChina Price Index: Supply Shortages Loom As Energy, Environmental Policies Collide - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"China's double control policy, upcoming environmental audits, the Winter Olympic Games, and Spring Holiday all 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