{"id":68429,"date":"2022-01-16T11:10:06","date_gmt":"2022-01-16T16:10:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=68429"},"modified":"2022-01-27T16:04:25","modified_gmt":"2022-01-27T21:04:25","slug":"china-price-index-value-creation-will-lead-sustainability-of-the-crop-protection-industry-in-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/china-price-index-value-creation-will-lead-sustainability-of-the-crop-protection-industry-in-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00cdndice de Pre\u00e7os da China: Cria\u00e7\u00e3o de Valor Liderar\u00e1 a Sustentabilidade da Ind\u00fastria de Prote\u00e7\u00e3o de Cultivos em 2022\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nota do editor: O escritor colaborador David Li oferece um instant\u00e2neo das tend\u00eancias atuais de pre\u00e7os dos principais herbicidas, fungicidas e inseticidas no mercado agroqu\u00edmico chin\u00eas em seu boletim mensal\u00a0\u00cdndice de pre\u00e7os da China<\/a>. Ele tamb\u00e9m fornece insights sobre por que a cria\u00e7\u00e3o de valor no setor global de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos precisa de contribui\u00e7\u00f5es de empresas multinacionais e fornecedores chineses de agroqu\u00edmicos.<\/em><\/p>\n

De acordo com o Escrit\u00f3rio Nacional de Estat\u00edsticas (NBS) da China<\/a>As exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de pesticidas da China em 2020 foram de 2,5 milh\u00f5es de toneladas, um aumento de 71,21 TP3T em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao ano anterior em 2019. Quando a pandemia da COVID-19 atingiu o mundo em 2020, distribuidores e empresas multinacionais come\u00e7aram a aumentar seus estoques de seguran\u00e7a para atender ao prazo de entrega, especialmente durante o quarto trimestre de 2020. O alto estoque de seguran\u00e7a, al\u00e9m do estoque do canal, foi o principal motivo pelo qual as compras aumentaram drasticamente.<\/p>\n

Em 2021, a China exportou cerca de 1,87 milh\u00f5es de Mt de agroqu\u00edmicos para o exterior de janeiro a setembro, um aumento de 63,3% no acumulado do ano de 2020. A forte demanda por compras no exterior ocorreu de janeiro a maio. O forte volume de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o mais uma vez injetou novos produtos finais no pipeline.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

De acordo com os relat\u00f3rios de financiamento do terceiro trimestre e do semestre de 2021 de algumas empresas multinacionais, a taxa de crescimento das vendas atingiu dois d\u00edgitos, o que foi excelente. A ansiedade de futuros portf\u00f3lios de pre\u00e7os altos estimulou a compra consistente no n\u00edvel da fazenda. Mas a verdadeira demanda e consumo do fazendeiro ter\u00e3o o potencial de vir \u00e0 tona na pr\u00f3xima esta\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivo.<\/p>\n

O Bar\u00f4metro da Economia Agr\u00edcola<\/a><\/em> (uma medida da sa\u00fade da economia agr\u00edcola dos EUA) caiu para uma leitura de 116 em novembro, queda de 5 pontos em rela\u00e7\u00e3o a outubro e 30% abaixo de novembro de 2020, quando o bar\u00f4metro estava em 167. As preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es dos agricultores dos EUA sobre os aumentos acentuados nos custos de produ\u00e7\u00e3o coincidiram com as preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es sobre uma s\u00e9rie de outras quest\u00f5es, que v\u00e3o desde os pre\u00e7os das safras e do gado at\u00e9 a pol\u00edtica ambiental e tribut\u00e1ria, bem como a COVID. \u00cdndice de Investimento de Capital Agr\u00edcola<\/em>caiu 7 pontos para uma leitura de 39, a menor leitura do \u00edndice desde abril de 2020. A fraqueza no \u00edndice de investimento parece ser uma fun\u00e7\u00e3o de problemas na cadeia de suprimentos, juntamente com preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es sobre o r\u00e1pido aumento dos custos de insumos, de acordo com o relat\u00f3rio da Universidade Purdue.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Comparado com o decl\u00ednio gradual na disposi\u00e7\u00e3o de investimento dos agricultores, o momento dessa redu\u00e7\u00e3o de investimento merece uma an\u00e1lise mais aprofundada. A r\u00e1pida resili\u00eancia, juntamente com o alto risco de infla\u00e7\u00e3o, traria mais incerteza para o agroneg\u00f3cio em 2022, embora o cen\u00e1rio econ\u00f4mico do agroneg\u00f3cio pare\u00e7a positivo devido aos principais pre\u00e7os de commodities alimentares em n\u00edveis historicamente altos.<\/p>\n

\"\"

Fonte: https:\/\/markets.businessinsider.com\/commodities\/soybeans-price<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

A situa\u00e7\u00e3o de 2022 pode ser muito semelhante \u00e0 de 2014. Naquela \u00e9poca, o Federal Reserve dos EUA havia acabado de concluir o QE3 em outubro de 2014. Ap\u00f3s a crise financeira de 2007-08, uma s\u00e9rie de pol\u00edticas de recupera\u00e7\u00e3o econ\u00f4mica do Federal Reserve fez com que os EUA se tornassem o primeiro pa\u00eds entre as na\u00e7\u00f5es ocidentais a sair da crise econ\u00f4mica. Em 2022, a infla\u00e7\u00e3o global causada pela flexibiliza\u00e7\u00e3o quantitativa da pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria e pela escassez de oferta de carga ser\u00e1 consistente ao longo do novo ano.<\/p>\n

A infla\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 uma \u201cferramenta vi\u00e1vel\u201d para a resili\u00eancia da economia. No entanto, quando o mundo enfrenta as novas variantes da COVID-19, um t\u00edpico evento cisne negro, os golpes econ\u00f4micos experimentados de 2020 a 2021 continuar\u00e3o a aumentar a instabilidade do crescimento global, onde a infla\u00e7\u00e3o pode andar de m\u00e3os dadas com a estagna\u00e7\u00e3o. O tempo de recupera\u00e7\u00e3o para a economia global atual seria menor em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com a \u00faltima recupera\u00e7\u00e3o da crise financeira global de 2007-08. Quanto \u00e0 ind\u00fastria de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos, o principal problema no futuro seria a menor cria\u00e7\u00e3o de valor devido ao alto estoque no pipeline, alto custo de insumos agr\u00edcolas e baixo consumo no n\u00edvel da fazenda.<\/p>\n

A baixa disposi\u00e7\u00e3o de investimento dos agricultores diminuiria a Disposi\u00e7\u00e3o para Pagar (WTP) em pesticidas gen\u00e9ricos do lado do agricultor (veja o gr\u00e1fico abaixo). E o alto custo dos insumos aumentaria o pre\u00e7o dos agroqu\u00edmicos e aumentaria a press\u00e3o do risco de investimento, ent\u00e3o os agricultores escolheriam economizar a dosagem o m\u00e1ximo que pudessem ou tentariam encontrar solu\u00e7\u00f5es alternativas. Ambos os fatores reduziram o valor que as empresas de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos prometem criar para os agricultores.<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m disso, as empresas globais de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos precisam manter a margem de lucro para P&D e opera\u00e7\u00e3o. Ent\u00e3o, elas foram for\u00e7adas a aumentar o pre\u00e7o de distribui\u00e7\u00e3o junto com o maior custo de opera\u00e7\u00e3o e o maior pre\u00e7o das mat\u00e9rias-primas dos fornecedores. Todo o mercado gen\u00e9rico de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos no total diminuiria de acordo (veja o gr\u00e1fico). Pode haver menor valor para solu\u00e7\u00f5es qu\u00edmicas de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos. A demanda do mercado pode transitar mais para produtos biol\u00f3gicos, agricultura de precis\u00e3o, agricultura digital, etc. O mercado total de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos de pesticidas gen\u00e9ricos provavelmente diminuiria em 2022 YOY 2021. De 2022 a 2024, a quest\u00e3o-chave futura para as empresas multinacionais de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos seria como estimular o consumo de produtos e lidar com os retornos do portf\u00f3lio.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"Em 2021, o maior impacto para o fornecimento global de agroqu\u00edmicos foi a \u201ccontrole duplo<\/a>\u201d pol\u00edtica. A suspens\u00e3o da produ\u00e7\u00e3o congelou as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de agroqu\u00edmicos da China do final de setembro a novembro de 2021, que era a esta\u00e7\u00e3o quente anual para exporta\u00e7\u00e3o de agroqu\u00edmicos. De 8 a 10 de dezembro, a Confer\u00eancia Central de Trabalho Econ\u00f4mico anual da China divulgou o princ\u00edpio da \u201cPol\u00edtica de Controle Duplo\u201d, que mencionou que \u201cenergia renov\u00e1vel e energia de mat\u00e9ria-prima, que \u00e9 para produ\u00e7\u00e3o (n\u00e3o para combust\u00edvel ou energia), n\u00e3o est\u00e3o inclu\u00eddas no controle total do consumo de energia\u201d. O esclarecimento apoiou a diminui\u00e7\u00e3o do impacto da \u201cPol\u00edtica de Controle Duplo\u201d nas opera\u00e7\u00f5es comuns da ind\u00fastria em 2022. N\u00e3o apenas os produtores de mat\u00e9ria-prima est\u00e3o lentamente voltando ao normal, mas tamb\u00e9m os fabricantes upstream, especialmente os produtores intermedi\u00e1rios, podem planejar um fornecimento consistente para a nova temporada.<\/p>\n

Ao mesmo tempo, os gargalos log\u00edsticos globais n\u00e3o foram efetivamente melhorados. A quantidade total de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o de commodities da China de janeiro a novembro de 2021 aumentou 7.61% YOY 2020. E o embarque de entrada e sa\u00edda da China de janeiro a novembro caiu 8.88% YOY 2020. O n\u00edvel m\u00e9dio de embarque de entrada e sa\u00edda da China ainda est\u00e1 abaixo dos n\u00edveis anteriores \u00e0 COVID. A forte demanda global ainda enfrenta uma escassez de embarques. De acordo com o \u00cdndice de frete em cont\u00eaineres da China (CCFI)<\/a>, o custo do frete da China ainda est\u00e1 em um n\u00edvel alto, que atingiu 3.344 pontos. Em 2022, a escassez de remessas pode ser um problema cont\u00ednuo para equipes de compras globais.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"N\u00e3o apenas os custos de frete est\u00e3o em um ponto alto, os principais herbicidas de queimada ainda est\u00e3o em um n\u00edvel de pre\u00e7o robusto. O pre\u00e7o alto come\u00e7ou em mar\u00e7o a abril de 2021 devido ao aumento incr\u00edvel dos pre\u00e7os da mat\u00e9ria-prima na China. Junto com o alto pre\u00e7o da mat\u00e9ria-prima, a demanda global inicial estava chegando ao mercado chin\u00eas, o que estimulou o mercado de fornecimento a reagir exageradamente para construir um novo equil\u00edbrio entre oferta e demanda.<\/p>\n

Enquanto isso, a interrup\u00e7\u00e3o do transporte internacional tamb\u00e9m levou as equipes de aquisi\u00e7\u00e3o a conduzir a estrat\u00e9gia para aumentar o estoque de seguran\u00e7a, que era principalmente para atender ao prazo de entrega para o plantio dos agricultores. Essas din\u00e2micas inter-relacionadas em 2021 ajudaram a empurrar o pre\u00e7o dos herbicidas de queima, especialmente para o glifosato, significativamente para cima, quase no mesmo n\u00edvel de pre\u00e7os de 2008, o ano da crise financeira global.<\/p>\n

No primeiro trimestre de 2022, haver\u00e1 algum impacto das auditorias de prote\u00e7\u00e3o ambiental e de um evento nacional na ind\u00fastria agroqu\u00edmica da China. Mas o impacto decrescente da \u201cPol\u00edtica de Controle Duplo\u201d apoiar\u00e1 a taxa de opera\u00e7\u00e3o agroqu\u00edmica da China a partir de mar\u00e7o de 2022. Diferente de 2021, a estrat\u00e9gia global de aquisi\u00e7\u00e3o pode ser mais conservadora em 2022, j\u00e1 que a nova demanda retornaria ao consumo normal no n\u00edvel da fazenda. Embora o crescimento do plantio global deva ser considerado, a calmaria da demanda pode ser uma grande possibilidade em 2022.<\/p>\n

Os produtores de glifosato da China podem n\u00e3o estar prontos para o futuro pouso suave da demanda. O jogo entre cota\u00e7\u00e3o e aquisi\u00e7\u00e3o estar\u00e1 em andamento antes do Festival da Primavera Chin\u00eas e dos Jogos Ol\u00edmpicos de Inverno de Pequim. O pre\u00e7o do glifosato est\u00e1 atualmente est\u00e1vel em torno de EXW 13 USD\/Kg. O pre\u00e7o do glufosinato caiu de EXW 59 USD\/Kg para EXW 55 USD\/Kg. Os pre\u00e7os dos herbicidas de queima est\u00e3o diminuindo devido ao comportamento do comerciante. Os estoques mais baratos est\u00e3o entrando no mercado em troca de dinheiro antes do Festival da Primavera Chin\u00eas. Por outro lado, os pre\u00e7os dos fungicidas e inseticidas chineses est\u00e3o em um n\u00edvel est\u00e1vel ap\u00f3s atingirem um ponto de inflex\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

No primeiro trimestre de 2022, a melhor escolha pode ser o otimismo cauteloso. La Ni\u00f1a pode trazer impacto inesperado ao crescimento da agricultura global durante a primavera de 2022. Clima extremo, como uma tempestade de gelo, pode atingir os EUA novamente. E a seca no Brasil pode causar um problema s\u00e9rio para seus agricultores. Nutrientes vegetais e solu\u00e7\u00f5es biol\u00f3gicas ter\u00e3o mais peso nos investimentos em produtos dos agricultores, junto com a crescente ado\u00e7\u00e3o de agricultura de precis\u00e3o e agricultura digital.<\/p>\n

Como mencionado antes, a cria\u00e7\u00e3o de valor na ind\u00fastria global de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos precisa da contribui\u00e7\u00e3o de empresas multinacionais e fornecedores de agroqu\u00edmicos chineses juntos. Quanto mais espa\u00e7o de valor for deixado para os agricultores, mais sustentabilidade haver\u00e1 para toda a ind\u00fastria de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos. Isso tamb\u00e9m estender\u00e1 o valor de vida de mol\u00e9culas preciosas, j\u00e1 que h\u00e1 mol\u00e9culas novas limitadas dispon\u00edveis na lista de portf\u00f3lios dos agr\u00f4nomos.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O especialista David Li explica por que a cria\u00e7\u00e3o de valor precisa de contribui\u00e7\u00f5es tanto de empresas multinacionais quanto de fornecedores chineses de agroqu\u00edmicos.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":60768,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,28,5,1849],"tags":[1836,554],"class_list":["post-68429","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-asia","category-markets","category-sourcing-insider","tag-china-price-index","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"\nChina Price Index: Value Creation Will Lead Sustainability of the Crop Protection Industry in 2022\u00a0 - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Expert David Li explains why value creation needs contributions from both multinational companies and Chinese agrochemical suppliers.\" 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