{"id":68460,"date":"2022-01-13T12:42:49","date_gmt":"2022-01-13T17:42:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=68460"},"modified":"2022-01-27T16:04:46","modified_gmt":"2022-01-27T21:04:46","slug":"cobank-u-s-monetary-policy-poised-to-replace-covid-as-economic-wild-card","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/cobank-u-s-monetary-policy-poised-to-replace-covid-as-economic-wild-card\/","title":{"rendered":"CoBank: Pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria dos EUA preparada para substituir a COVID como curinga econ\u00f4mico\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"

Apesar do aumento de casos de COVID e das complica\u00e7\u00f5es que isso traz, a economia dos EUA continua a prosperar. Os trabalhadores est\u00e3o retornando firmemente \u00e0 for\u00e7a de trabalho; a taxa de desemprego est\u00e1 atualmente abaixo de 4% e os consumidores ainda est\u00e3o gastando com confian\u00e7a.<\/p>\n

At\u00e9 que o aumento do \u00f4micron diminua, o maior risco econ\u00f4mico ser\u00e3o os milh\u00f5es de trabalhadores que relatam estar doentes e dificultam as cadeias de suprimentos j\u00e1 sitiadas. Os impactos para os setores de alimentos e agricultura variar\u00e3o significativamente por produto, mas geralmente ser\u00e3o menos severos do que no in\u00edcio da pandemia, de acordo com um novo relat\u00f3rio trimestral do Knowledge Exchange do CoBank.<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cOs riscos econ\u00f3micos das novas variantes de alto impacto do coronav\u00edrus permanecer\u00e3o ao longo de 2022\u201d, afirmou Dan Kowalski<\/a>, vice-presidente da divis\u00e3o Knowledge Exchange do CoBank. \u201cMas os americanos est\u00e3o cada vez mais fazendo as pazes com a no\u00e7\u00e3o de que o v\u00edrus, de alguma forma, estar\u00e1 conosco por meses, se n\u00e3o anos, e precisamos encontrar uma maneira de viver mais normalmente com ele. Essa mudan\u00e7a de mentalidade reduzir\u00e1 o risco da economia at\u00e9 certo ponto.\u201d<\/p>\n

No final de dezembro, os EUA recuperaram 84% dos empregos perdidos desde o in\u00edcio da pandemia, o que equivale a um d\u00e9ficit de 3,6 milh\u00f5es de trabalhadores a menos em compara\u00e7\u00e3o ao in\u00edcio de 2020. A perspectiva da cadeia de suprimentos melhorou devido a mais trabalhadores em armazenagem e transporte. Desde maio de 2020, os EUA adicionaram 800.000 empregos nos dois setores, eclipsando o n\u00famero de empregos pr\u00e9-COVID em 3%.<\/p>\n

\u00c0 medida que o mercado de trabalho se aproxima do pleno emprego, quaisquer \u00faltimos argumentos para o Federal Reserve manter sua pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria altamente acomodat\u00edcia est\u00e3o perdendo seu m\u00e9rito. Com o mercado agora antecipando uma mudan\u00e7a radical na pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria, o aperto das condi\u00e7\u00f5es financeiras come\u00e7ou.<\/p>\n

Gr\u00e3os, Suprimentos Agr\u00edcolas e Biocombust\u00edveis<\/h2>\n

Os pre\u00e7os futuros de milho e soja foram negociados mais altos no quarto trimestre, atingindo m\u00e1ximas de seis meses no final de dezembro. As exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de gr\u00e3os est\u00e3o se recuperando ap\u00f3s as interrup\u00e7\u00f5es no movimento de barca\u00e7as causadas pelo furac\u00e3o Ida persistirem no quarto trimestre. No entanto, as remessas combinadas de milho, soja e trigo para a China ca\u00edram em um ter\u00e7o em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com a temporada passada. Compensando parcialmente o decl\u00ednio nas compras chinesas, as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es combinadas de milho, soja e trigo para o M\u00e9xico aumentaram em 24%.<\/p>\n

As cooperativas de suprimentos agr\u00edcolas e varejistas agr\u00edcolas desfrutaram de uma temporada de outono lucrativa em meio a altos pre\u00e7os de safra, fortes fluxos de caixa dos agricultores e condi\u00e7\u00f5es favor\u00e1veis de colheita. Os pre\u00e7os dos fertilizantes continuaram a subir, aumentando aproximadamente 20% no quarto trimestre e 160% em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao ano anterior. A infla\u00e7\u00e3o do custo de insumos, a escassez de produtos de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos e os desafios trabalhistas podem amea\u00e7ar as margens de fornecimento agr\u00edcola durante a temporada de plantio da primavera de 2022 e potencialmente al\u00e9m.<\/p>\n

A produ\u00e7\u00e3o de etanol se recuperou para n\u00edveis pr\u00e9-COVID e as margens de lucro do Q4 subiram para recordes hist\u00f3ricos, atualmente com m\u00e9dia de $1,34\/gal\u00e3o. A produ\u00e7\u00e3o atingiu um recorde de 17 bilh\u00f5es de gal\u00f5es anualizados por duas semanas consecutivas no final de outubro, antes de se estabilizar em 16,3 bilh\u00f5es no final do ano.<\/p>\n

Prote\u00edna Animal e Latic\u00ednios<\/h2>\n

A produ\u00e7\u00e3o de prote\u00edna animal dos EUA subiu moderadamente no quarto trimestre, mas os suprimentos continuam sob press\u00e3o devido \u00e0 demanda robusta. A produ\u00e7\u00e3o combinada de carne vermelha e aves estabeleceu um recorde em novembro de 8,9 bilh\u00f5es de libras, 3,5% maior do que no ano anterior. Os estoques finais de aves ca\u00edram para as m\u00ednimas de cinco anos, e os estoques de carne su\u00edna atingiram as m\u00ednimas de 12 anos. Enquanto isso, os \u00edndices de carne no atacado do quarto trimestre foram 25% maiores ano a ano, refletindo a demanda elevada por prote\u00ednas animais.<\/p>\n

As importa\u00e7\u00f5es de prote\u00edna animal da China diminu\u00edram significativamente em rela\u00e7\u00e3o aos picos recordes durante os meses de ver\u00e3o. Para os produtores dos EUA, a depend\u00eancia da China diminuiu para aves e su\u00ednos, enquanto as oportunidades para carne bovina permanecem robustas. A perspectiva de 2022 para vendas para a China permanece mista, j\u00e1 que o estoque de su\u00ednos do pa\u00eds se recuperou, mas a peste su\u00edna africana continua sendo um curinga. A crescente afinidade da China pela carne bovina dos EUA deixou os produtores de carne bovina otimistas.<\/p>\n

Os suprimentos de leite diminu\u00edram ainda mais no quarto trimestre, pois o rebanho leiteiro dos EUA continuou a encolher, principalmente nas regi\u00f5es oeste e sudoeste dos EUA, onde a disponibilidade de ra\u00e7\u00e3o continua sendo um desafio persistente. No entanto, sinais de prosperidade est\u00e3o no horizonte, \u00e0 medida que os pre\u00e7os das novilhas aumentam, o abate de vacas leiteiras diminui e as vendas na fazenda diminuem. Os futuros de leite Classe III negociados na CME encerraram 2021 acima de $20\/cwt ap\u00f3s come\u00e7ar o ano abaixo de $18\/cwt.<\/p>\n

Algod\u00e3o, arroz e culturas especiais<\/h2>\n

Os pre\u00e7os futuros do algod\u00e3o atingiram $1,20\/lb. no final de novembro, o maior fechamento em mais de uma d\u00e9cada. Mas as not\u00edcias da variante \u00f4micron chegaram logo depois, e os futuros do algod\u00e3o ca\u00edram 10-15 centavos. No entanto, os pre\u00e7os se mantiveram acima da tend\u00eancia ascendente de longo prazo que come\u00e7ou em abril de 2020. No entanto, apesar do mercado em alta de quase dois anos, h\u00e1 uma amea\u00e7a crescente de risco de queda, pois os estoques globais parecem ser amplos.<\/p>\n

Os futuros de arroz em casca definharam no quarto trimestre em meio a abundantes suprimentos export\u00e1veis na \u00cdndia e decl\u00ednio da competitividade do pre\u00e7o de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o. A fraqueza persistente do real brasileiro tem sido um obst\u00e1culo para o arroz dos EUA, pois as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es brasileiras de arroz est\u00e3o mais competitivas nos mercados do Hemisf\u00e9rio Ocidental. Os compromissos de vendas de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o dos EUA para todo o arroz no atual ano de comercializa\u00e7\u00e3o ca\u00edram 36% ano a ano e as remessas ca\u00edram 5%.<\/p>\n

A colheita de beterraba est\u00e1 completa e rendimentos recordes s\u00e3o esperados ap\u00f3s condi\u00e7\u00f5es ideais de cultivo em toda a regi\u00e3o de cultivo do norte dos EUA. As entregas de a\u00e7\u00facar dos EUA para consumo humano cresceram um total de 2,1% nos \u00faltimos dois anos. A quest\u00e3o para 2022 \u00e9 se os pre\u00e7os no atacado se aproximando de 50 centavos\/lb. finalmente colocar\u00e3o um freio no consumo de a\u00e7\u00facar.<\/p>\n

O \u00edndice de pre\u00e7os ao produtor para culturas especiais subiu acentuadamente no \u00faltimo trimestre, pois colheitas menores elevaram os pre\u00e7os na fazenda. O aumento nos pre\u00e7os de frutas e vegetais se deve principalmente \u00e0 seca persistente no oeste dos EUA, que cortou a produ\u00e7\u00e3o por meio de menor \u00e1rea e rendimentos. A menor colheita de nozes neste outono tamb\u00e9m est\u00e1 elevando os pre\u00e7os de am\u00eandoas, nozes e pistaches para produtores e consumidores.<\/p>\n

Energia, \u00c1gua e Comunica\u00e7\u00f5es<\/p>\n

Os pre\u00e7os do g\u00e1s natural e do carv\u00e3o atingiram m\u00e1ximas de v\u00e1rios anos em 2021, enquanto os compradores se esfor\u00e7avam para alinhar o fornecimento suficiente antes do inverno. A enorme reinicializa\u00e7\u00e3o econ\u00f4mica do ano passado e a incapacidade dos produtores de acompanhar foram em grande parte respons\u00e1veis pela escassez de fornecimento de energia e pre\u00e7os descontrolados. No entanto, alguns argumentam que a transi\u00e7\u00e3o energ\u00e9tica desempenhou um papel nos altos pre\u00e7os dos combust\u00edveis, j\u00e1 que o desmame coletivo dos combust\u00edveis f\u00f3sseis prejudica a resposta do fornecedor. A crise energ\u00e9tica que se desenrola na Europa parece apoiar essa an\u00e1lise.<\/p>\n

O Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act fornece $15 bilh\u00f5es para remo\u00e7\u00e3o de canos de chumbo, bem longe dos $45 bilh\u00f5es provavelmente necess\u00e1rios. No entanto, como o maior pagamento em uma gera\u00e7\u00e3o, o financiamento pode fazer um impacto significativo no enfrentamento desse problema. O sucesso do programa atual depender\u00e1, em parte, de como os fundos s\u00e3o gastos.<\/p>\n

O $65 bilh\u00f5es em novos financiamentos de banda larga \u00e9 o triplo do tamanho do Rural Development Opportunity Fund (RDOF), que foi o maior programa de subs\u00eddio de banda larga do governo federal. Os estados receber\u00e3o dois ter\u00e7os do financiamento para construir redes em \u00e1reas n\u00e3o atendidas e mal atendidas. Ao explorar o conhecimento local de onde a cobertura \u00e9 necess\u00e1ria e quem pode constru\u00ed-la, a Comiss\u00e3o Federal de Comunica\u00e7\u00f5es parece ter aprendido com as defici\u00eancias de programas anteriores.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Com a economia em terreno s\u00f3lido, as decis\u00f5es do Federal Reserve ter\u00e3o influ\u00eancia descomunal.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":68160,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[26,1848,5],"tags":[554],"class_list":["post-68460","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-americas","category-executive-outlook","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"\nCoBank: U.S. Monetary Policy Poised to Replace COVID as Economic Wild Card\u00a0 - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With the economy on solid ground, Federal Reserve decisions will have outsized influence.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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