{"id":68487,"date":"2022-02-01T16:23:33","date_gmt":"2022-02-01T21:23:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=68487"},"modified":"2022-01-25T17:12:13","modified_gmt":"2022-01-25T22:12:13","slug":"south-american-crops-are-driving-demand-for-inputs-but-prices-rise-and-shortages-loom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/south-american-crops-are-driving-demand-for-inputs-but-prices-rise-and-shortages-loom\/","title":{"rendered":"As safras sul-americanas est\u00e3o impulsionando a demanda por insumos, mas os pre\u00e7os sobem e a escassez se aproxima"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>O Hemisf\u00e9rio Sul da Am\u00e9rica Latina produzir\u00e1 mais da metade da soja do mundo na temporada 2021-22.<\/p>\n<p>Com o in\u00edcio do ver\u00e3o austral, a semeadura de gr\u00e3os do hemisf\u00e9rio sul na Am\u00e9rica Latina j\u00e1 come\u00e7ou. Os pa\u00edses produtores profissionais s\u00e3o importantes para gr\u00e3os e outras culturas e est\u00e3o muito ocupados durante esses per\u00edodos preparando a terra e a semeadura em cada uma das zonas relevantes. Exportadores profissionais de gr\u00e3os como Brasil, Argentina, Bol\u00edvia, Paraguai e Uruguai s\u00e3o orientados para alta produ\u00e7\u00e3o e exporta\u00e7\u00e3o, usando agricultura intensiva com um uso muito eficiente de recursos, pois t\u00eam um potencial agr\u00edcola muito forte focado em gr\u00e3os. Eles s\u00e3o r\u00e1pidos adotantes de tecnologia para produ\u00e7\u00e3o, mas s\u00e3o muito sens\u00edveis \u00e0 rela\u00e7\u00e3o custo x benef\u00edcio.<\/p>\n<p>A \u00e1rea plantada para a temporada 2021-22 no hemisf\u00e9rio sul ser\u00e1 3,9% maior que a da temporada 2020-21 e 7,3% maior que a da temporada 2019-20. A semeadura para este ano ser\u00e1 de aproximadamente 100 milh\u00f5es de hectares, incluindo as \u00e1reas de soja, milho, arroz, girassol, algod\u00e3o, sorgo e amendoim.<\/p>\n<p>A \u00e1rea plantada de soja no hemisf\u00e9rio sul ser\u00e1 de 62,9 milh\u00f5es de hectares, o que representa 63% da \u00e1rea total plantada nesta regi\u00e3o, seguido pelo milho com 28 milh\u00f5es de hectares, representando 28% da \u00e1rea. Em terceiro lugar est\u00e1 o arroz com 2,13 milh\u00f5es de hectares, representando 2,14% do total; o algod\u00e3o tamb\u00e9m segue com 2 milh\u00f5es de hectares e 2,07% do total. Girassol com 1,86 hectares, Sorgo com 1,75 milh\u00e3o e amendoim com 550 mil hectares do total.<\/p>\n<p>O plantio de soja para a safra 2021\/22 come\u00e7ou e os padr\u00f5es clim\u00e1ticos precisam ser monitorados, pois, de acordo com o IRI, a La Ni\u00f1a tem uma chance de 78% de se desenvolver no quarto trimestre de 2021.<\/p>\n<p>La Ni\u00f1a corresponde a um resfriamento das \u00e1guas do Pac\u00edfico equatorial central e oriental, que perturba a circula\u00e7\u00e3o dos ventos, os n\u00edveis de press\u00e3o atmosf\u00e9rica e a precipita\u00e7\u00e3o. Segundo o Centro de Previs\u00e3o do Servi\u00e7o Nacional de Meteorologia dos Estados Unidos (NWS), a probabilidade de que esse fen\u00f4meno se manifeste novamente entre novembro e janeiro pr\u00f3ximos \u00e9 de 70%. La Ni\u00f1a geralmente se manifesta com seca no Peru, Bol\u00edvia, sul do Brasil, Argentina e Chile, o que possivelmente poderia afetar o bom desenvolvimento de importantes cultivos nesses pa\u00edses.<\/p>\n<p>V\u00e1rios desses \u00faltimos pa\u00edses t\u00eam sofrido uma seca intensa desde o ano passado, que afetou as planta\u00e7\u00f5es, secou rios e impactou a gera\u00e7\u00e3o hidrel\u00e9trica.<\/p>\n<p>Agora, h\u00e1 temores de que o fen\u00f4meno La Ni\u00f1a atrase ainda mais a esta\u00e7\u00e3o chuvosa no Cone Sul e torne 2022 um ano ainda mais seco.<\/p>\n<p>O Brasil ocupa o primeiro lugar na \u00e1rea de cultivos na regi\u00e3o.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/South-America-Production-Table.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-68491\" src=\"https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/South-America-Production-Table.jpg\" alt=\"South America Production Table\" width=\"896\" height=\"261\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/South-America-Production-Table.jpg 959w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/South-America-Production-Table-300x87.jpg 300w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/South-America-Production-Table-768x223.jpg 768w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/South-America-Production-Table-18x5.jpg 18w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/South-America-Production-Table-330x96.jpg 330w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/South-America-Production-Table-128x37.jpg 128w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/South-America-Production-Table-640x186.jpg 640w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/South-America-Production-Table-85x25.jpg 85w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/South-America-Production-Table-150x44.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 896px) 100vw, 896px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Dos quase cem milh\u00f5es de hectares, ser\u00e3o semeados 65,5 milh\u00f5es de hectares, o que corresponde a 66% da \u00e1rea total a ser semeada.<\/p>\n<p>Aqui est\u00e3o as lavouras de soja com 40,4 milh\u00f5es de hectares, seguidas do milho com 20,8 milh\u00f5es de hectares, depois do arroz com 1,7 milh\u00e3o e do sorgo com 900 mil hectares.<\/p>\n<p>O cultivo de soja \u00e9 a cultura mais importante do pa\u00eds, com 40,4 milh\u00f5es de hectares, o que representa 4% a mais que a semeadura da temporada 2020-21, onde foram plantados 38,9 milh\u00f5es de hectares e 9,5% a mais que a temporada 2019-20.<\/p>\n<p>O Brasil ocupar\u00e1 o primeiro lugar no plantio de soja no mundo, 15% acima dos Estados Unidos, que planeja semear 35 milh\u00f5es de hectares. O Brasil ter\u00e1 uma colheita aproximada de 144 milh\u00f5es de toneladas, sendo o primeiro da regi\u00e3o, seguido pela Argentina com 50 milh\u00f5es de toneladas. O Paraguai prev\u00ea uma colheita de 10,5 milh\u00f5es de toneladas, enquanto a colheita deve chegar a 3 milh\u00f5es de toneladas na Bol\u00edvia e 2,4 milh\u00f5es de toneladas no Uruguai.<\/p>\n<p>Um desenvolvimento preocupante \u00e9 a disponibilidade de insumos, incluindo herbicidas, inseticidas, fungicidas e fertilizantes. Neste cen\u00e1rio, as \u00e1reas de produ\u00e7\u00e3o global t\u00eam sido afetadas por aumentos nos pre\u00e7os de produtos agroqu\u00edmicos devido \u00e0 falta de ingredientes ativos, especialmente em pa\u00edses produtores como a China, somados aos problemas de transporte e disponibilidade de cont\u00eaineres para escrit\u00f3rios.<\/p>\n<p>Segundo a Bloomberg, a redu\u00e7\u00e3o de produtos fitossanit\u00e1rios para prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos est\u00e1 se mostrando uma dura realidade para os produtores, n\u00e3o s\u00f3 no Brasil, mas em toda a regi\u00e3o.<\/p>\n<p>Apesar de ter vendido grande parte dos produtos da temporada 2021-22, a pr\u00f3pria ind\u00fastria n\u00e3o descartou atrasos tanto nas entregas quanto cancelamentos de compras.<\/p>\n<p>A sensa\u00e7\u00e3o dos produtores \u00e9 de que a falta de insumos pode colocar a pr\u00f3xima safra em risco, e a situa\u00e7\u00e3o se complica a cada dia.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/10-Best-Selling-AIs-in-Brazil-Table.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-68493\" src=\"https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/10-Best-Selling-AIs-in-Brazil-Table.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"450\" height=\"304\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/10-Best-Selling-AIs-in-Brazil-Table.jpg 559w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/10-Best-Selling-AIs-in-Brazil-Table-300x203.jpg 300w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/10-Best-Selling-AIs-in-Brazil-Table-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/10-Best-Selling-AIs-in-Brazil-Table-330x223.jpg 330w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/10-Best-Selling-AIs-in-Brazil-Table-106x72.jpg 106w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/10-Best-Selling-AIs-in-Brazil-Table-532x360.jpg 532w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/10-Best-Selling-AIs-in-Brazil-Table-85x57.jpg 85w, https:\/\/d6kq167ddwbdq.cloudfront.net\/farmchemint\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/10-Best-Selling-AIs-in-Brazil-Table-150x101.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 450px) 100vw, 450px\" \/><\/a>\u00c9 importante ressaltar que a falta de produtos fitossanit\u00e1rios \u00e9 muito cr\u00edtica, principalmente pela necessidade de ter herbicidas para preparar o solo antes da semeadura e tamb\u00e9m para aplicar novamente depois de semeado. O Brasil importou menos de 100 toneladas de glifosato no per\u00edodo entre janeiro e setembro de 2021, isso representa uma queda de 20% em volume em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao mesmo per\u00edodo do ano passado.<\/p>\n<p>As ind\u00fastrias de defensivos agr\u00edcolas estimam que o segundo semestre de 2021 e o primeiro trimestre de 2022 ser\u00e3o meses dif\u00edceis para o setor, com impactos na produ\u00e7\u00e3o nacional, principalmente devido ao aumento dos custos de produ\u00e7\u00e3o e \u00e0 redu\u00e7\u00e3o da oferta de mat\u00e9rias-primas utilizadas para o preparo das f\u00f3rmulas.<\/p>\n<p>Segundo os coment\u00e1rios do Sindicato Nacional da Ind\u00fastria de Produtos Fitossanit\u00e1rios (Sindiveg) sobre o assunto, eles indicam que:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTeremos dificuldades com alguns produtos. Alguns mais do que outros. Os fornecedores chineses n\u00e3o est\u00e3o cumprindo as entregas, e algumas empresas est\u00e3o preocupadas em n\u00e3o conseguir entregar os produtos aos distribuidores.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>A preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o est\u00e1 nos n\u00fameros de importa\u00e7\u00e3o do Brasil. De janeiro a junho, as importa\u00e7\u00f5es brasileiras de defensivos agr\u00edcolas ca\u00edram quase 3% em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao mesmo per\u00edodo do ano passado, apesar da valoriza\u00e7\u00e3o do d\u00f3lar.<\/p>\n<p>No Brasil, segundo a mesma rede Bloomberg, pode sofrer redu\u00e7\u00e3o no fornecimento de insumos para os pr\u00f3ximos plantios que j\u00e1 est\u00e3o a caminho, j\u00e1 que as ind\u00fastrias n\u00e3o descartam atrasos ou at\u00e9 cancelamento de entregas por falta de mat\u00e9ria-prima.<\/p>\n<p>O aumento dos custos de produ\u00e7\u00e3o e a redu\u00e7\u00e3o da oferta de mat\u00e9rias-primas utilizadas na prepara\u00e7\u00e3o de f\u00f3rmulas utilizadas nas lavouras est\u00e3o gerando duas consequ\u00eancias \u2014 aumento de pre\u00e7os e possibilidade de desabastecimento do produto.<\/p>\n<p>No caso dos fertilizantes, a situa\u00e7\u00e3o n\u00e3o \u00e9 muito diferente dos produtos fitossanit\u00e1rios, pois quem adiou a compra teve as entregas atrasadas.<\/p>\n<p>De janeiro a mar\u00e7o, o Brasil viveu um boom nas compras de fertilizantes. O Brasil importou 1,15 milh\u00e3o de toneladas no primeiro trimestre, volume 41% superior ao acumulado nos tr\u00eas primeiros meses de 2020. No segundo trimestre do ano, o volume adquirido foi praticamente o mesmo de 2020, pouco mais de 1 milh\u00e3o de toneladas. Entre julho e setembro, no entanto, as compras ca\u00edram 6%, totalizando pouco mais de 988 mil toneladas.<\/p>\n<p>Na Argentina, para o caso agr\u00edcola, a situa\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 bem diferente, pois a colheita de milho superar\u00e1 a de soja e possivelmente chegar\u00e1 a 55 milh\u00f5es de toneladas, enquanto a colheita de soja ser\u00e1 de 50 milh\u00f5es de toneladas.<\/p>\n<p>A soja est\u00e1 enfrentando condi\u00e7\u00f5es ambientais secas na Argentina e um imposto de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o que est\u00e1 limitando a \u00e1rea plantada.<\/p>\n<p>Impostos de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o sobre soja na Argentina de 31% a 33% sobre soja s\u00e3o subtra\u00eddos da margem de lucro. A soja crua \u00e9 taxada em 33%. \u00d3leo de soja e farelo de soja s\u00e3o taxados em 31%. O USDA prev\u00ea a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de soja na Argentina para o ano comercial de 2021-22 em 49,5 milh\u00f5es de toneladas m\u00e9tricas, o que \u00e9 7% a mais do que no ano passado. A \u00e1rea \u00e9 estimada em 16,4 milh\u00f5es de hectares, menos de 1% de mudan\u00e7a em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao ano passado.<\/p>\n<p>O rendimento \u00e9 definido em 3,02 toneladas por hectare, 8% a mais que no ano passado. As expectativas de plantio de soja diminu\u00edram, e os agricultores se beneficiaram dos pre\u00e7os da soja que diminu\u00edram em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao milho. Al\u00e9m disso, a sele\u00e7\u00e3o fornece aos agricultores mais flexibilidade. Embora a soja seja cultivada e produzida com o menor custo de produ\u00e7\u00e3o, ela n\u00e3o tem a margem de lucro que tem atualmente devido aos pre\u00e7os.<\/p>\n<p>A Argentina \u00e9 a maior exportadora mundial de \u00f3leo e farinha de soja, e a segunda de milho. No entanto, \u00e9 muito prov\u00e1vel que os campos argentinos sofram novamente com a escassez de chuvas devido aos efeitos dos fen\u00f4menos meteorol\u00f3gicos no pa\u00eds pelo segundo ano consecutivo, e esses efeitos do La Ni\u00f1a no Brasil e na Argentina podem aumentar a demanda por milho nos Estados Unidos.<\/p>\n<p>Apesar da seca sazonal, espera-se que o milho na Argentina tenha uma \u00e1rea maior. Uma \u00e1rea maior de milho \u00e9 prevista no sul do pa\u00eds para o ano comercial de 2021-22 devido aos melhores rendimentos de milho e sementes de milho. A \u00e1rea de milho \u00e9 estimada em 6,8 milh\u00f5es de hectares, 6% a mais que no ano passado. A produ\u00e7\u00e3o de milho deve ficar em 54,5 milh\u00f5es de toneladas m\u00e9tricas, um aumento de 8% em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao ano passado. O rendimento \u00e9 estabelecido em 8,01 toneladas por hectare, 2% a mais que no ano passado.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A \u00e1rea plantada com soja aumentou no Brasil e na Argentina, mas a redu\u00e7\u00e3o nas importa\u00e7\u00f5es de pesticidas, a seca e as constantes interrup\u00e7\u00f5es no fornecimento podem comprometer a colheita. <\/p>","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":68494,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,26,18,19,20,5],"tags":[54],"class_list":["post-68487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-americas","category-fungicides","category-herbicides","category-insecticides","category-markets","tag-featured-home"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - 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