{"id":68795,"date":"2022-03-31T14:34:46","date_gmt":"2022-03-31T18:34:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=68795"},"modified":"2022-03-31T14:34:46","modified_gmt":"2022-03-31T18:34:46","slug":"cobank-war-in-black-sea-region-likely-to-shock-grain-markets-for-several-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/cobank-war-in-black-sea-region-likely-to-shock-grain-markets-for-several-years\/","title":{"rendered":"CoBank: Guerra na regi\u00e3o do Mar Negro provavelmente chocar\u00e1 os mercados de gr\u00e3os por v\u00e1rios anos"},"content":{"rendered":"

Os mercados globais de gr\u00e3os t\u00eam se administrado durante um per\u00edodo de extrema volatilidade de pre\u00e7os ap\u00f3s a invas\u00e3o militar da Ucr\u00e2nia pela R\u00fassia, uma situa\u00e7\u00e3o que reacendeu o rali de pre\u00e7os de gr\u00e3os de 2020-21. A regi\u00e3o do Mar Negro \u00e9 uma grande produtora e exportadora de trigo, al\u00e9m de ser um centro criticamente importante para o com\u00e9rcio global de commodities agr\u00edcolas.<\/p>\n

Independentemente de quando a guerra terminar, seu impacto no com\u00e9rcio global de gr\u00e3os ir\u00e1 reverberar por algum tempo, \u00e0 medida que os mercados avaliam continuamente as escassez de gr\u00e3os reais e percebidas e reajustam os pr\u00eamios de risco. De acordo com um novo relat\u00f3rio do Knowledge Exchange do CoBank<\/a>, o conflito afetar\u00e1 negativamente os fluxos globais de gr\u00e3os por pelo menos dois anos de safra, e provavelmente por mais tempo.<\/p>\n

\u201cEsperamos um aperto significativo nas rela\u00e7\u00f5es entre estoques dispon\u00edveis e uso tanto para milho quanto para trigo\u201d, disse Kenneth Scott Zuckerberg<\/a>, economista-chefe de gr\u00e3os e suprimentos agr\u00edcolas do CoBank. \u201cOs pre\u00e7os dos gr\u00e3os permanecer\u00e3o elevados e vol\u00e1teis no futuro previs\u00edvel. \u00c9 um ambiente que exigir\u00e1 que as cooperativas e exportadores de gr\u00e3os dos EUA mantenham altos n\u00edveis de capital e excesso de liquidez para financiar atividades operacionais e de gest\u00e3o de risco.\u201d<\/p>\n

R\u00fassia e Ucr\u00e2nia respondem por 14% da produ\u00e7\u00e3o global de trigo e 29% das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es globais de trigo com base nas m\u00e9dias de cinco anos. Enquanto as duas na\u00e7\u00f5es produzem apenas 4% dos suprimentos globais de milho, elas respondem por 17% das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de milho. A guerra chega em um momento particularmente t\u00eanue para a Ucr\u00e2nia, dado seu calend\u00e1rio normal de plantio, criando um risco para a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de safras e exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de gr\u00e3os do pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n

Plantios reduzidos de milho e trigo no ano corrente na Ucr\u00e2nia, combinados com uma colheita menor de trigo de inverno em julho e agosto, devem estreitar as rela\u00e7\u00f5es estoques dispon\u00edveis\/uso para ambas as commodities, acrescentou Zuckerberg. Excluindo Ucr\u00e2nia e China devido \u00e0s suas reservas de estoque mantidas do com\u00e9rcio, o CoBank espera que as rela\u00e7\u00f5es estoques dispon\u00edveis\/uso globais caiam de 6,6% para 4,0% para milho e de 15,0% para 10,5% para trigo.<\/p>\n

No curto prazo, \u00cdndia, Europa e Austr\u00e1lia devem ser capazes de suprir algumas das defici\u00eancias nas exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de trigo da Ucr\u00e2nia para o Oriente M\u00e9dio e Norte da \u00c1frica (MENA). Os EUA, Brasil e Argentina provavelmente ter\u00e3o a capacidade de suprir as lacunas na demanda de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o de milho.<\/p>\n

\u00c0 medida que os pre\u00e7os dos gr\u00e3os sobem, os elevadores dos EUA t\u00eam oportunidades de registrar lucros em estoques de gr\u00e3os pr\u00f3prios comprados a um custo-base menor. No entanto, maior capital ser\u00e1 necess\u00e1rio para compra, armazenamento e hedge de gr\u00e3os. Exportadores e comerciantes multinacionais de gr\u00e3os maiores tamb\u00e9m precisar\u00e3o de n\u00edveis de capital mais altos para financiar suas opera\u00e7\u00f5es. Eles tamb\u00e9m precisar\u00e3o analisar e gerenciar cuidadosamente o risco de cr\u00e9dito da contraparte, dado o prov\u00e1vel aumento do com\u00e9rcio de gr\u00e3os com participantes de mercados emergentes.<\/p>\n

A guerra na Ucr\u00e2nia pode servir como um chamado para a seguran\u00e7a alimentar dos pa\u00edses do MENA, que dependem de importa\u00e7\u00f5es de gr\u00e3os da R\u00fassia e da Ucr\u00e2nia. Se o MENA diversificar seus parceiros de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o de gr\u00e3os, a Am\u00e9rica do Norte e do Sul, a Europa e a Austr\u00e1lia se beneficiar\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

Leia o relat\u00f3rio, Gr\u00e3os da Ucr\u00e2nia: Estoques apertados, volatilidade de pre\u00e7os prov\u00e1vel por anos<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A invas\u00e3o da Ucr\u00e2nia pela R\u00fassia deve resultar em estoques reduzidos de gr\u00e3os e volatilidade de pre\u00e7os por pelo menos dois anos.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":60488,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68795","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe","category-markets"],"yoast_head":"\nCoBank: War in Black Sea Region Likely to Shock Grain Markets for Several Years - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine expected to result in tight grain stocks and price volatility for at least two years.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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