{"id":69298,"date":"2022-07-25T12:38:14","date_gmt":"2022-07-25T16:38:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=69298"},"modified":"2022-07-20T11:55:51","modified_gmt":"2022-07-20T15:55:51","slug":"china-price-index-from-energy-double-control-policy-to-carbon-double-control-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/china-price-index-from-energy-double-control-policy-to-carbon-double-control-policy\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00cdndice de pre\u00e7os da China: da pol\u00edtica de duplo controle de energia \u00e0 pol\u00edtica de duplo controle de carbono"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nota do editor: O escritor colaborador David Li oferece um instant\u00e2neo das tend\u00eancias atuais de pre\u00e7os dos principais herbicidas, fungicidas e inseticidas no mercado agroqu\u00edmico chin\u00eas em seu boletim mensal\u00a0\u00cdndice de pre\u00e7os da China<\/a>. Este m\u00eas, ele fornece informa\u00e7\u00f5es sobre o atual status de desenvolvimento econ\u00f4mico e os esfor\u00e7os de sustentabilidade na China e como isso impacta a ind\u00fastria agroqu\u00edmica.<\/em><\/p>\n

A Confer\u00eancia Central Anual de Trabalho Econ\u00f4mico foi realizada em Pequim de 8 a 10 de dezembro, que \u00e9 um importante bar\u00f4metro do futuro desenvolvimento econ\u00f4mico e dire\u00e7\u00e3o pol\u00edtica da China. De acordo com a relat\u00f3rio de Di\u00e1rio do Povo<\/em><\/a>, o objetivo da reuni\u00e3o anual \u00e9 resumir o trabalho econ\u00f4mico em 2021, analisar a situa\u00e7\u00e3o econ\u00f4mica atual e fazer planos para o trabalho econ\u00f4mico em 2022.<\/p>\n

Para resumir o atual status de desenvolvimento econ\u00f4mico da China, h\u00e1 tr\u00eas tipos de press\u00f5es para o crescimento econ\u00f4mico futuro do pa\u00eds: contra\u00e7\u00e3o da demanda, choque de oferta e enfraquecimento das expectativas.<\/p>\n

Em 2021, o crescimento econ\u00f4mico da China foi contribu\u00eddo principalmente pela forte demanda global. Em 2022, a demanda global foi prevista para ser um pouso suave com n\u00edveis incertos de redu\u00e7\u00e3o. Acreditava-se que o futuro investimento e consumo lentos colocariam mais press\u00e3o no crescimento econ\u00f4mico da China. A contra\u00e7\u00e3o da demanda \u00e9 afetada principalmente pelo investimento e consumo lentos. A COVID-19 foi um fator para reduzir o entusiasmo do investimento n\u00e3o apenas para o mercado interno da China, mas tamb\u00e9m para o mercado global. Portanto, a contra\u00e7\u00e3o da demanda se tornaria uma press\u00e3o fundamental para o desenvolvimento futuro da China no princ\u00edpio da comunidade humana com um futuro compartilhado.<\/p>\n

Em 2015, a China come\u00e7ou a buscar um crescimento sustent\u00e1vel e de alta qualidade. O que significou, do meu ponto de vista, que eles implementaram esfor\u00e7os para respeitar a natureza e cuidar das pessoas.<\/p>\n

Desde 2017, a tempestade de prote\u00e7\u00e3o ambiental atingiu a cadeia de suprimentos agroqu\u00edmicos da China. A produ\u00e7\u00e3o ilegal de res\u00edduos era estritamente regulamentada pelo governo. At\u00e9 2021, a maioria das principais empresas agroqu\u00edmicas se mudou para parques industriais. A emiss\u00e3o de polui\u00e7\u00e3o est\u00e1 totalmente sob controle pela Lei de Prote\u00e7\u00e3o Ambiental. Empresas com emiss\u00f5es ilegais de polui\u00e7\u00e3o foram eliminadas gradualmente.<\/p>\n

Tal reviravolta de uma tend\u00eancia de desenvolvimento nacional mudou fundamentalmente o desenvolvimento da economia da China. Como resultado, a sociedade chinesa valorizar\u00e1 os empreendedores que desejam desenvolver a ind\u00fastria e investir em inova\u00e7\u00e3o e fabrica\u00e7\u00e3o de alta tecnologia no futuro. Assim como a Uni\u00e3o Europeia e os Estados Unidos, a China est\u00e1 investindo em esfor\u00e7os mais sustent\u00e1veis, o que trar\u00e1 enormes benef\u00edcios para os 1,4 bilh\u00f5es de pessoas do mundo no Oriente.<\/p>\n

Como o poss\u00edvel Ado\u00e7\u00e3o de culturas GM<\/a> em 2022 ou 2023, fornecer\u00e1 um novo motor para o crescimento agr\u00edcola da China. A maior renda dos agricultores pelo cultivo de GM estimular\u00e1 o consumo da sociedade de acordo. Em 2008, a China investiu uma quantia enorme em infraestruturas agr\u00edcolas. Durante uma situa\u00e7\u00e3o econ\u00f4mica semelhante em 2022, a agricultura se tornar\u00e1 um novo motor. Consequentemente, o desempenho do crescimento da demanda aumentar\u00e1 a partir de 2023. Portanto, seria mais cr\u00edtico manter um crescimento est\u00e1vel, prudente e eficaz em 2022. Como vantagem, as pessoas no agroneg\u00f3cio sempre sabem que a paci\u00eancia \u00e9 uma capacidade essencial na gest\u00e3o de longo prazo do retorno do investimento (ROI).<\/p>\n

Choque de oferta \u00e9 o evento que aumenta ou diminui repentinamente a oferta de uma mercadoria ou servi\u00e7o. Essa mudan\u00e7a repentina afeta o pre\u00e7o de equil\u00edbrio do bem ou servi\u00e7o ou o n\u00edvel geral de pre\u00e7os da economia. O aumento repentino dos pre\u00e7os pode levar a uma s\u00e9rie de problemas. O resultado final pode ser a estagfla\u00e7\u00e3o devido a uma combina\u00e7\u00e3o de aumento de pre\u00e7os e queda da produ\u00e7\u00e3o. Os compradores globais e os fabricantes nacionais da China est\u00e3o muito familiarizados com o choque de oferta durante a pandemia da COVID-19 e controle duplo<\/a> impacto. Da suspens\u00e3o da produ\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 escassez de energia, o mundo enfrenta o desafio de gest\u00e3o disruptiva da cadeia de suprimentos<\/a>. Ainda h\u00e1 muita incerteza sobre os efeitos globais da COVID-19 devido \u00e0s novas variedades. Em 2022, o choque de oferta ainda est\u00e1 pressionando todos ao redor do mundo, j\u00e1 que a resili\u00eancia da cadeia de suprimentos \u00e9 muito dif\u00edcil e complicada.<\/p>\n

Para o crescimento econ\u00f4mico da China em 2022, o choque de oferta precisa ser controlado para fornecimento cont\u00ednuo. A cadeia de suprimentos disruptiva global, especialmente para os principais materiais b\u00e1sicos como petr\u00f3leo bruto e GNL, impactar\u00e1 o fornecimento de energia da China e a principal manufatura intermedi\u00e1ria. Os altos pre\u00e7os das commodities podem se tornar est\u00e1veis, o que pressionar\u00e1 a produ\u00e7\u00e3o da China no pr\u00f3ximo ano.<\/p>\n

Diferente da forte demanda externa, a circula\u00e7\u00e3o econ\u00f4mica dom\u00e9stica da China se tornou uma prioridade maior. A pol\u00edtica b\u00e1sica se concentrar\u00e1 na circula\u00e7\u00e3o econ\u00f4mica dom\u00e9stica e no desenvolvimento da circula\u00e7\u00e3o dupla interna-externa para o crescimento econ\u00f4mico no pr\u00f3ximo ano. O enfraquecimento da expectativa pode estar vindo da incerteza do crescimento econ\u00f4mico global em 2022. Embora tenha havido uma forte demanda por agroqu\u00edmicos em 2021, devemos entender que a forte demanda pode estar vindo da ansiedade psicol\u00f3gica dos agricultores. O maior estoque de seguran\u00e7a em distribuidores e armaz\u00e9ns de agricultores tamb\u00e9m impulsionou a forte demanda em 2021.<\/p>\n

Quanto ao lado do fabricante, os neg\u00f3cios inst\u00e1veis durante a COVID-19 levaram muitos fabricantes a encontrar crescimento potencial em mercados segmentados. Como a ind\u00fastria agroqu\u00edmica, mais empresas come\u00e7aram a desenvolver neg\u00f3cios B2B no mercado dom\u00e9stico ou tentaram estabelecer neg\u00f3cios no mercado agr\u00edcola local da China.<\/p>\n

Em 2022, a demanda global ainda \u00e9 imprevis\u00edvel. O fr\u00e1gil equil\u00edbrio da economia global tamb\u00e9m pode ser quebrado.<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m disso, o aumento dos pre\u00e7os das mat\u00e9rias-primas est\u00e1 reduzindo a margem de lucro dos principais fabricantes.<\/p>\n

Para enfrentar o futuro de demanda inst\u00e1vel, os fabricantes est\u00e3o reduzindo suas expectativas futuras sobre investimentos para expans\u00e3o. Para o agroneg\u00f3cio, o pre\u00e7o da commodity alimentar \u00e9 a \u00fanica base do consumo de insumos agr\u00edcolas e das expectativas dos agricultores. A quest\u00e3o \u00e9 quanto tempo durar\u00e1 o equil\u00edbrio fr\u00e1gil? Quando o FED e os bancos centrais come\u00e7arem a aumentar as taxas de juros, quer\u00edamos saber se a commodity alimentar permanecer\u00e1 no n\u00edvel de pre\u00e7o alto? Ningu\u00e9m pode responder.<\/p>\n

Para enfrentar as tr\u00eas press\u00f5es em 2022, a China prop\u00f4s as seguintes solu\u00e7\u00f5es para a na\u00e7\u00e3o. As solu\u00e7\u00f5es ser\u00e3o continuar a fortalecer a base econ\u00f4mica, aumentar a capacidade de inova\u00e7\u00e3o cient\u00edfica e tecnol\u00f3gica, aderir ao multilateralismo, tomar a iniciativa de adotar regras econ\u00f4micas e comerciais internacionais de alto padr\u00e3o e promover uma reforma de n\u00edvel profundo e desenvolvimento de alta qualidade por meio de abertura de altos padr\u00f5es.<\/p>\n

Em 2022, h\u00e1 uma grande probabilidade de a China seguir uma pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria prudente e flex\u00edvel.<\/p>\n

Seria principalmente para manter liquidez adequada. Para dar suporte ao desenvolvimento da economia real e promover a redu\u00e7\u00e3o constante dos custos de financiamento abrangentes, o Banco Popular da China (PBOC) decidiu reduzir a taxa de reserva obrigat\u00f3ria para institui\u00e7\u00f5es financeiras em 0,5% pontos em 15 de dezembro de 2021. Foi um sinal claro para dar suporte \u00e0 liquidez b\u00e1sica para o crescimento econ\u00f4mico.<\/p>\n

De acordo com a Central Economic Work Conference, o governo orientar\u00e1 as institui\u00e7\u00f5es financeiras a aumentar o suporte \u00e0 economia real, especialmente pequenas e microempresas, inova\u00e7\u00e3o cient\u00edfica e tecnol\u00f3gica e desenvolvimento verde em 2022. Para a ind\u00fastria agroqu\u00edmica da China, a futura pol\u00edtica e regulamenta\u00e7\u00f5es relevantes estariam se apoiando na manufatura verde e tecnologia avan\u00e7ada de s\u00edntese. A manufatura de alto consumo de energia e os portf\u00f3lios altamente t\u00f3xicos ser\u00e3o estritamente controlados ou eliminados gradualmente nos pr\u00f3ximos anos.<\/p>\n

Por outro lado, a execu\u00e7\u00e3o do pico de emiss\u00e3o de carbono e da neutralidade de carbono tamb\u00e9m foi mencionada na confer\u00eancia. Um sinal proativo foi divulgado para a ind\u00fastria. O pico de emiss\u00e3o de carbono e a meta de neutralidade de carbono n\u00e3o podem ser alcan\u00e7ados em um dia. Comparando com o impacto do controle duplo em setembro de 2021, haveria mais flexibilidade na pol\u00edtica de controle duplo em 2022 para minimizar a interrup\u00e7\u00e3o da produ\u00e7\u00e3o comum dos produtores. O choque de oferta tamb\u00e9m diminuiria em 2022.<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m disso, a confer\u00eancia tamb\u00e9m mencionou que o controle do consumo de energia mais o controle da intensidade energ\u00e9tica (o controle duplo) ser\u00e1 transferido para o controle total de emiss\u00e3o de carbono mais o controle da intensidade (Controle Duplo de Carbono) passo a passo. Tal transforma\u00e7\u00e3o poderia capacitar a atualiza\u00e7\u00e3o da futura ind\u00fastria da China.<\/p>\n

N\u00e3o podemos focar apenas no consumo de energia, pois ele \u00e9 apenas um par\u00e2metro de emiss\u00e3o de carbono.<\/p>\n

O desenvolvimento de inova\u00e7\u00e3o e tecnologia de baixa emiss\u00e3o de carbono e baixo consumo de energia em toda a ind\u00fastria ser\u00e1 o mais importante para a obten\u00e7\u00e3o da futura meta de neutralidade de carbono. Por outro lado, energia renov\u00e1vel e energia de mat\u00e9ria-prima rec\u00e9m-adicionadas, que s\u00e3o para produ\u00e7\u00e3o (n\u00e3o para combust\u00edvel ou energia), n\u00e3o est\u00e3o inclu\u00eddas no controle total do consumo de energia. Esta nova tend\u00eancia pol\u00edtica trar\u00e1 benef\u00edcios significativos para o desenvolvimento est\u00e1vel da ind\u00fastria qu\u00edmica em 2022.<\/p>\n

Em 2022, todas as regi\u00f5es e departamentos da China assumir\u00e3o a responsabilidade de manter a estabilidade macroecon\u00f4mica como prioridade. As pol\u00edticas futuras feitas tamb\u00e9m ser\u00e3o prop\u00edcias ao crescimento econ\u00f4mico est\u00e1vel. Ser\u00e1 o combust\u00edvel para o motor do crescimento futuro para o ciclo suave da economia nacional. A inova\u00e7\u00e3o futura ser\u00e1 principalmente progredida por empresas.<\/p>\n

As empresas l\u00edderes em diferentes ind\u00fastrias ser\u00e3o o papel fundamental do futuro ecossistema de P&D. Para o fornecimento b\u00e1sico de commodities e materiais, a China se concentrar\u00e1 na economia de recursos. A reciclagem de materiais, baixa emiss\u00e3o de carbono e baixo impacto ambiental ser\u00e3o promovidos principalmente em 2022. N\u00e3o apenas para materiais, mas a seguran\u00e7a alimentar tamb\u00e9m ser\u00e1 um desenvolvimento importante da produtividade agr\u00edcola da China. Da semente ao povo, toda a cadeia de valor alimentar ser\u00e1 protegida. Em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 ind\u00fastria agroqu\u00edmica da China, haver\u00e1 mais t\u00f3picos a serem discutidos entre os principais fabricantes de agroqu\u00edmicos.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O especialista em mercado David Li fornece insights sobre o mais recente status econ\u00f4mico e esfor\u00e7os de sustentabilidade na China e o impacto na agroqu\u00edmica.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":69282,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,28,5],"tags":[1836,54],"class_list":["post-69298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-asia","category-markets","tag-china-price-index","tag-featured-home"],"yoast_head":"\nChina Price Index: From Energy Double Control Policy to Carbon Double Control Policy - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Market expert David Li provides insight on the latest economic status and sustainability efforts in China and the impact on agchem.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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