{"id":69310,"date":"2022-07-28T12:19:39","date_gmt":"2022-07-28T16:19:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=69310"},"modified":"2022-07-20T12:21:17","modified_gmt":"2022-07-20T16:21:17","slug":"china-price-index-glufosinate-approaches-a-perfectly-competitive-market-and-what-it-means-for-buyers-and-sellers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/china-price-index-glufosinate-approaches-a-perfectly-competitive-market-and-what-it-means-for-buyers-and-sellers\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00cdndice de pre\u00e7os da China: Glufosinato se aproxima de um "mercado perfeitamente competitivo" e o que isso significa para compradores e vendedores"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nota do editor: O escritor colaborador David Li oferece um instant\u00e2neo das tend\u00eancias atuais de pre\u00e7os dos principais herbicidas, fungicidas e inseticidas no mercado agroqu\u00edmico chin\u00eas em seu boletim mensal\u00a0\u00cdndice de pre\u00e7os da China<\/a>. Abaixo, ele fornece insights sobre como compradores e vendedores de glufosinato devem responder ao \u201cmercado perfeitamente competitivo\u201d que o herbicida est\u00e1 se aproximando.<\/em><\/p>\n

Concorr\u00eancia perfeita \u00e9 o estado ideal de competi\u00e7\u00e3o de mercado em economia. Esse estado competitivo \u00e9 chamado de concorr\u00eancia perfeita (ou mercado perfeito) quando os compradores e vendedores no mercado s\u00e3o iguais, com cada lado existindo como um tomador de pre\u00e7o estabelecido sem ser capaz de influenciar individualmente o pre\u00e7o de mercado.<\/p>\n

Devido \u00e0 natureza do mercado competitivo perfeito, geralmente n\u00e3o \u00e9 uma boa ideia ser um vendedor nele. Os pre\u00e7os s\u00e3o t\u00e3o baixos que \u00e9 muito dif\u00edcil gerar lucros razo\u00e1veis para cada posi\u00e7\u00e3o do neg\u00f3cio, incluindo fornecedores e distribuidores. Consequentemente, muitos fornecedores buscam menos mercados perfeitos, permitindo que eles realizem n\u00edveis de lucro mais altos. \u00c9 o que chamamos de "inova\u00e7\u00e3o para atingir portf\u00f3lio de alta margem".<\/p>\n

Quando olhamos para o fornecimento de pesticidas na China com um olhar prudente, encontramos o mercado de fornecimento de gen\u00e9ricos na China, especialmente para as categorias de agroqu\u00edmicos necess\u00e1rios para produtos agr\u00edcolas a granel internacionais, como glifosato<\/a> e glufosinato<\/a>, est\u00e1 gradualmente se aproximando de um estado de mercado competitivo perfeito. A capacidade total de produ\u00e7\u00e3o global de glifosato excede 1 milh\u00e3o de toneladas, das quais quase 70% s\u00e3o fabricadas na China. Como o maior herbicida de queima do mundo, a sorte do glifosato come\u00e7ou a decolar em 1996.<\/p>\n

Por outro lado, a capacidade do ingrediente ativo (IA) glufosinato da China est\u00e1 atingindo mais de 38.000 mt. A capacidade estimada em constru\u00e7\u00e3o excedeu 90.000 mt. A capacidade de L-glufosinato est\u00e1 em mais de 80.000 mt. A \u00fanica margem razo\u00e1vel de produ\u00e7\u00e3o futura poderia ser com L-glufosinato. A expans\u00e3o da capacidade de glufosinato na China se deve em parte aos fornecedores chineses terem uma vis\u00e3o geral da tend\u00eancia global em dire\u00e7\u00e3o a culturas tolerantes a glufosinato e em parte porque eles est\u00e3o esperando a promo\u00e7\u00e3o futura de culturas geneticamente modificadas na China.<\/p>\n

De acordo com um Associa\u00e7\u00e3o de Inspetores Certificados de Propriedades Comerciais (CCPIA)<\/a> relat\u00f3rio, a constru\u00e7\u00e3o de 20.000 mt de glufosinato, 10.000 mt de L-glufosinato e 10.000 mt de clorantraniliprole da Yisheng obteve a aprova\u00e7\u00e3o de uma planta na prov\u00edncia de Shandong em maio de 2022. A subsidi\u00e1ria da Liben, Nei Mongol Shengling Chemical, iniciou a constru\u00e7\u00e3o de uma instala\u00e7\u00e3o que pode produzir "50.000 mt de glufosinato e intermedi\u00e1rios" em um Distrito de Desenvolvimento Industrial de Alta Tecnologia e Novidade de La Shan ao mesmo tempo. E novas capacidades de glufosinato de Changqing, Binnong e Wynca chegar\u00e3o ao mercado em breve. A gigante produtora tradicional chinesa de glufosinato, Lier Chemical, tamb\u00e9m tem um plano para expandir mais 50.000 mt de capacidade de glufosinato para o mercado nos pr\u00f3ximos dois anos. Em junho, a Veyong assinou recentemente um acordo de transfer\u00eancia de tecnologia com a Universidade de Tecnologia de Zhejiang para a produ\u00e7\u00e3o industrializada de L-glufosinato pelo m\u00e9todo bioenzim\u00e1tico.<\/p>\n

Utilizando a biologia sint\u00e9tica e a tecnologia catal\u00edtica enzim\u00e1tica fornecida pela Universidade de Tecnologia de Zhejiang<\/a>, a Veyong Biochemical utilizar\u00e1 enzimas altamente eficientes para cat\u00e1lise de glufosinato e converter\u00e1 D-glufosinato em L-glufosinato com alta pureza e efici\u00eancia da rea\u00e7\u00e3o. Combinado com o novo player, Hebei Chengxin, o mercado de fornecimento do mercado chin\u00eas de glufosinato ser\u00e1 remodelado.<\/p>\n

O mercado atual de fornecimento de glufosinato \u00e9 muito sens\u00edvel. A linha de contrato dos principais produtores \u00e9 ocupada por pedidos de contas-chave. No entanto, com a entrega gradual dos pedidos, os fornecedores est\u00e3o gradualmente se concentrando na nova demanda, fazendo com que a volatilidade do fornecimento aumente. Taxas de opera\u00e7\u00e3o mais baixas s\u00e3o comuns devido \u00e0 tradicional entressafra. Taxas de opera\u00e7\u00e3o baixas podem deslocalizar a fraca demanda em um curto espa\u00e7o de tempo, ent\u00e3o os pre\u00e7os do glufosinato provavelmente n\u00e3o cair\u00e3o significativamente.<\/p>\n

Nova capacidade ainda deve ter um impacto adicional nos pre\u00e7os em recuo nos pr\u00f3ximos seis meses. Como resultado, haver\u00e1 pre\u00e7os mais baixos no mercado tentando capturar a demanda de compra no exterior. Os pre\u00e7os de mercado continuar\u00e3o vol\u00e1teis. A demanda externa persistentemente fraca no longo prazo pode impedir que os pre\u00e7os do glufosinato se mantenham firmes. Novas libera\u00e7\u00f5es de capacidade adicional tamb\u00e9m ter\u00e3o um efeito de arrastamento nos pre\u00e7os futuros.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Para o glufosinato, tend\u00eancias de pre\u00e7o nos pr\u00f3ximos seis meses, sentimos que a demanda estrangeira \u00e9 cr\u00edtica para o fluxo de vendas "primeiro a entrar, primeiro a sair" devido aos desafios enfrentados pela economia (alta infla\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 medida que a temporada de compras se aproxima e consumo do campo do fazendeiro). A caracter\u00edstica mais importante da estagfla\u00e7\u00e3o s\u00e3o os pre\u00e7os altos, mas o crescimento econ\u00f4mico lento. O aperto monet\u00e1rio cont\u00ednuo do Federal Reserve est\u00e1 aumentando o risco de estagfla\u00e7\u00e3o, especialmente para a temporada de cultivo global de 2023, o que pode criar press\u00e3o financeira significativa. A incerteza sobre o controle da pandemia dom\u00e9stica de COVID-19 na China tamb\u00e9m levar\u00e1 os compradores estrangeiros a buscar uma estrat\u00e9gia de fornecimento "China+1". Independentemente da expans\u00e3o dos suprimentos chineses e se o controle da pandemia diminuir\u00e1 ou n\u00e3o, a disposi\u00e7\u00e3o dos compradores de manter op\u00e7\u00f5es alternativas se tornar\u00e1 mais forte. Esta n\u00e3o \u00e9 uma crise para os fornecedores chineses, mas talvez estejamos vivenciando um ponto de inflex\u00e3o hist\u00f3rico.<\/p>\n

Se os distribuidores continuarem a entrar em p\u00e2nico com os estoques, eles provavelmente ser\u00e3o muito cautelosos sobre as compras para a temporada de cultivo de 2023, dependendo da resili\u00eancia de seu n\u00edvel financeiro. A demanda das multinacionais ser\u00e1 relativamente est\u00e1vel. Isso ocorre porque, para as vendas de produtos de marca, a press\u00e3o de capital ser\u00e1 repassada ao canal. Com a redu\u00e7\u00e3o no financiamento do canal para produtos de marca de multinacionais, os distribuidores podem ter que continuar a obter mat\u00e9rias-primas de pre\u00e7os mais baratos diretamente da China. No final de 2022, no lado da oferta, veremos que os principais fornecedores continuar\u00e3o a se aprofundar na consolida\u00e7\u00e3o. Embora a concentra\u00e7\u00e3o da ind\u00fastria esteja aumentando, a fraqueza dos pre\u00e7os provavelmente ser\u00e1 uma nova norma. Se pudermos excluir o impacto dos eventos cisne negro em 2022, o mercado agroqu\u00edmico chin\u00eas se mover\u00e1 gradualmente para um volume mais est\u00e1vel e tend\u00eancia de queda de pre\u00e7os at\u00e9 o final de 2022.<\/p>\n

Agosto de 2022 pode ser o ponto mais baixo para os pre\u00e7os do glufosinato. \u00c0 medida que os compradores retornam em setembro\/outubro e a oferta se estabiliza, estrat\u00e9gias cautelosas de fornecimento for\u00e7ar\u00e3o os fornecedores chineses a oferecer mais espa\u00e7o para descontos. E a nova capacidade possivelmente lan\u00e7aria produtos de pre\u00e7os mais baixos, que provavelmente continuar\u00e3o a chegar ao mercado para capturar participa\u00e7\u00e3o de mercado em 2022. Portanto, pode ser dif\u00edcil para os pre\u00e7os do glufosinato subirem no quarto trimestre. O 20\u00ba Congresso do Partido Comunista Chin\u00eas acontece em outubro. Grandes eventos na China provavelmente ter\u00e3o um leve impacto na produ\u00e7\u00e3o em torno de Pequim, mas n\u00e3o ter\u00e3o um grande impacto nos fundamentos mais amplos da opera\u00e7\u00e3o econ\u00f4mica. Al\u00e9m disso, as principais mat\u00e9rias-primas e bases de produ\u00e7\u00e3o de glufosinato est\u00e3o longe do c\u00edrculo econ\u00f4mico da capital. Portanto, \u00e9 muito improv\u00e1vel que os pre\u00e7os dom\u00e9sticos do glufosinato sejam aumentados por grandes eventos.<\/p>\n

Embora promissor, um mercado perfeitamente competitivo pode n\u00e3o ser um estado ideal para altos investimentos iniciais. O retorno sobre o investimento pode se tornar muito fr\u00e1gil e insustent\u00e1vel em um mercado altamente competitivo. Para os compradores, um estado totalmente competitivo para glifosato e glufosinato \u00e9 certamente uma boa economia de custos. Mas precisamos saber que a competi\u00e7\u00e3o total chegar\u00e1 ao mercado de campo do agricultor. Para os distribuidores, eles tamb\u00e9m se deparam com um portf\u00f3lio homogeneizado no mercado de herbicidas de queima.<\/p>\n

A natureza pode nos ensinar uma li\u00e7\u00e3o s\u00e9ria no contexto da ado\u00e7\u00e3o em massa de um portf\u00f3lio \u00fanico e simplificado. Para ervas daninhas resistentes \u00e0 beira de estradas do Equador, a aplica\u00e7\u00e3o de uma combina\u00e7\u00e3o de glifosato de alta qualidade e 2,4-D de uma empresa multinacional em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com um controle usando um portf\u00f3lio semelhante inferior, ambos enfrentam s\u00e9rios problemas de resist\u00eancia. O que \u00e9 previs\u00edvel \u00e9 que este \u00e9 um problema que todos os profissionais do mercado enfrentar\u00e3o no campo talvez pelos pr\u00f3ximos cinco a 10 anos. N\u00e3o h\u00e1 solu\u00e7\u00e3o ideal se quisermos simplificar a aplica\u00e7\u00e3o de herbicidas de queima o m\u00e1ximo poss\u00edvel e evitar facilmente os problemas de resist\u00eancia de ervas daninhas que v\u00eam com isso.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A demanda externa persistentemente fraca no longo prazo pode impedir que os pre\u00e7os do glufosinato se mantenham firmes.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":68010,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,19,1849],"tags":[1836,54,335,170,109],"class_list":["post-69310","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-herbicides","category-sourcing-insider","tag-china-price-index","tag-featured-home","tag-glufosinate","tag-glyphosate","tag-herbicide-resistance"],"yoast_head":"\nChina Price Index: Glufosinate Approaches a 'Perfectly Competitive Market' and What It Means for Buyers and Sellers - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Persistently weak overseas demand in the long term might prevent glufosinate prices from holding firm.\" \/>\n<meta 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